*********8:30PM UPDATE FRIDAY***********
First off, excuse the slightly messy map for the event this weekend, I am in Jamaica and do not have the same tools to use to make the maps. This one still works though.
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SHOULD WE SAY "MAJOR"? WINTER STORM HEADING OUR WAY? Guys, this system will be a whole lot more wintry then a lot of the public Weather websites are telling you.
A very moisture filled disturbance will move up from the south and into the Ohio valley tonight into tomorrow. As it meets the EXTREMELY cold air that is already in place, we will see snow break out. The system will continue to move NE over us, most likely a good thump of snow Saturday evening into the night before changing over to a ice/sleet/snow mix Sunday morning and maybe some plain old rain.
Now, even though as we said yesterday there is no reinforcing for the cold air already in place, there is a very hard press of Arctic cold air on the backside, so it may end as snow as well and not even changeover. Winds will turn southerly as the system approaches, so especially on the immediate coastal areas, warming up to the high 30's and maybe even 40º will be possible. Cold air damming which is being shown possible on the soundings and SKUV-T charts will help keep it an all snow event as well.
SNOW WILL BE HEAVY, ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT!!
I have prepared a map but it will not let me upload it from my iPad for some reason, so explanation below:
NYC, Long Island, Coastal Connecticut, Rhode Island, the Cape, all that area and just south of Boston - You guys will be a front end thump of snow over to sleet/ice and then plain rain. 1-3" of snow is probably a good bet for you.
NYC Northern suburbs, basically along I287/I95 and North, as well as down to Philly and NW of Philly and NYC into Interior NY and Central New England, Maine - This will be a 3-6" storm, front end snow Saturday evening into Nighttime possibly changing over to sleet/ice/rain near the coast. THIS COULD EASILY GO UP TO A 4-8" OR MORE IF THE COLD TREND CONTINUES.
People in the Poconos, mountains of Virginia and West Virginia, 4-8" and localized 6-10" we think will easily be seen before any changeover if any at all.
ELEVATION WILL PLAY A ROLE IN THIS STORM IN TERMS OF TEMPS AND CHANGEOVER/SNOW AMOUNTS.
Dillon and I are pretty confident though with what we are forecasting!
*********************
Although the Main Euro Model and GFS model have said goodbye to the possible storm for Tuesday/Wednesday, QUITE A FEW of the ensembles, not quite 25 of the 50 of them, but QUITE A FEW still have the storm on for us, so we will continue to watch this as it is still a possibility.
**********************
Brief warmup with the weekend storm, maybe reaching 40º in the city, then another Arctic blast for Sunday night. FLASH FREEZE!!!
***********************
TONIGHT - Cold cold cold Lows near 0º, clear but getting partly cloudy.
SATURDAY - Cloudy with light snow developing between 3-5pm for most then getting heavier as the night goes on...HEAVY SNOW during the night, accumulations according to the map and description. Highs in the High 20's to right around 32º.
SUNDAY - Snow in the morning will changeover to a sleet/ice/snow mix midday before maybe ending as some plain rain or back over to all snow in the afternoon, Highs in the low to mid 30's. Snow accumulations according to map and description provided. FLASH FREEZE SUNDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER ARCTIC HP COMES THROUGH.
MONDAY - Partly sunny Highs in the mid 20's
TUESDAY - Another possible storm coming in the afternoon? we shall see, otherwise Cloudy highs near 20º
*********************
HAVE A GREAT NIGHT GUYS!
First off, excuse the slightly messy map for the event this weekend, I am in Jamaica and do not have the same tools to use to make the maps. This one still works though.
***************
SHOULD WE SAY "MAJOR"? WINTER STORM HEADING OUR WAY? Guys, this system will be a whole lot more wintry then a lot of the public Weather websites are telling you.
A very moisture filled disturbance will move up from the south and into the Ohio valley tonight into tomorrow. As it meets the EXTREMELY cold air that is already in place, we will see snow break out. The system will continue to move NE over us, most likely a good thump of snow Saturday evening into the night before changing over to a ice/sleet/snow mix Sunday morning and maybe some plain old rain.
Now, even though as we said yesterday there is no reinforcing for the cold air already in place, there is a very hard press of Arctic cold air on the backside, so it may end as snow as well and not even changeover. Winds will turn southerly as the system approaches, so especially on the immediate coastal areas, warming up to the high 30's and maybe even 40º will be possible. Cold air damming which is being shown possible on the soundings and SKUV-T charts will help keep it an all snow event as well.
SNOW WILL BE HEAVY, ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT!!
I have prepared a map but it will not let me upload it from my iPad for some reason, so explanation below:
NYC, Long Island, Coastal Connecticut, Rhode Island, the Cape, all that area and just south of Boston - You guys will be a front end thump of snow over to sleet/ice and then plain rain. 1-3" of snow is probably a good bet for you.
NYC Northern suburbs, basically along I287/I95 and North, as well as down to Philly and NW of Philly and NYC into Interior NY and Central New England, Maine - This will be a 3-6" storm, front end snow Saturday evening into Nighttime possibly changing over to sleet/ice/rain near the coast. THIS COULD EASILY GO UP TO A 4-8" OR MORE IF THE COLD TREND CONTINUES.
People in the Poconos, mountains of Virginia and West Virginia, 4-8" and localized 6-10" we think will easily be seen before any changeover if any at all.
ELEVATION WILL PLAY A ROLE IN THIS STORM IN TERMS OF TEMPS AND CHANGEOVER/SNOW AMOUNTS.
Dillon and I are pretty confident though with what we are forecasting!
*********************
Although the Main Euro Model and GFS model have said goodbye to the possible storm for Tuesday/Wednesday, QUITE A FEW of the ensembles, not quite 25 of the 50 of them, but QUITE A FEW still have the storm on for us, so we will continue to watch this as it is still a possibility.
**********************
Brief warmup with the weekend storm, maybe reaching 40º in the city, then another Arctic blast for Sunday night. FLASH FREEZE!!!
***********************
TONIGHT - Cold cold cold Lows near 0º, clear but getting partly cloudy.
SATURDAY - Cloudy with light snow developing between 3-5pm for most then getting heavier as the night goes on...HEAVY SNOW during the night, accumulations according to the map and description. Highs in the High 20's to right around 32º.
SUNDAY - Snow in the morning will changeover to a sleet/ice/snow mix midday before maybe ending as some plain rain or back over to all snow in the afternoon, Highs in the low to mid 30's. Snow accumulations according to map and description provided. FLASH FREEZE SUNDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER ARCTIC HP COMES THROUGH.
MONDAY - Partly sunny Highs in the mid 20's
TUESDAY - Another possible storm coming in the afternoon? we shall see, otherwise Cloudy highs near 20º
*********************
HAVE A GREAT NIGHT GUYS!
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