Thursday, March 26, 2015

Thursday Night Weather Update

-
Updated: 0000z/20:00/08:00PM
----------------------------------FORECAST----------------------------------
TONIGHT - Dense fog will continue to affect the area, and more then likely a brief thunderstorm as a strong cold front moves through the area. Lows near 40°

FRIDAY - Guys, would not be surprised if we see some snow showers in the morning as that cold front smashes through on the backside of it. Highs in the low to mid 40's.

SATURDAY - Very interesting situation, highs in the low to mid 30's. Now, as a weak upper level disturbance moves and interacts with a developing coastal storm we could very well see snow showers and light snow in the afternoon, accumulation 1-2" or more for now, mostly on grassy surfaces. Stay tuned for more on this. 

SUNDAY - Mostly sunny, highs in the mid 40's...nice day :) more typical of February then late March though!

-------------------------FORECAST DISCUSSION-------------------------

Very active pattern will continue to keep us in winters grip for the next couple of weeks - BUT, GOOD news on the way! Overall atmospheric jet patterns and Teleconnections, oceans signalling at a very "spring" look starting April 8-10 and beyond...so lets hope this stays that way...shall that be the date for start of spring? We shall see!

A cold front will continue to move through the area tonight and associated with it a very positively tilted trough that will house a good number of T-storms and rain, possibly some hail and damaging winds for brief periods of time throughout the night before moving out tomorrow morning/midday ish. As the cold front moves through, the cold air will most certainly follow - I would not be surprised if we see a brief time of snow showers on the backside of the front as it comes through tomorrow.

THIS weekend, very interesting situation as we have an Upper Level Disturbance moving through the area and it will interact with a developing coastal storm. What will happen is a couple of rather weak waves of nrg/moisture will move along the N/NW side of the cold fronts spreading some snow showers and light snow, 1-2" for now in Westchester maybe 2-4" especially along Coastal CT and to the NE of NYC. Frontogenesis will be key with this as it will dictate where the heaviest of the light snows will be, and where the formation of the coastal low is...if it comes closer, more snow, further, less snow. This will be a nowcast situation mostly, but some places along LI and coastal eastern New England may see a quick 3-6" with this.

LONGER range, looking to Easter weekend - models are hinting at some big storm coming through the area, in fact one that might warrant the "blizzard" word. Track and formation is still key, and it is still 10 days out so in no ways am I jumping on it - but the models have been hinting at it for some time, so lets keep a big eye on this!

HAVE a great night folks!

No comments:

Post a Comment