Sunday, April 19, 2015

Sunday Afternoon Weather Update - So so week coming up

**Sorry about lack of posts in the last week, we have been really busy!**
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Updated: 1940z/15:50/3:50PM
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TONIGHT - Light rain  beginning very late tonight as a very potent   moisture filled system treks across the Ohio Valley and towards us. Lows in the low 40's.

MONDAY - A real soaker! As a warm front approaches and a very potent moisture filled system marches across the region you can expect rain pretty much all day, and it could very well be heavy especially in the morning around rush hour before tapering off in the late afternoon. Highs in the low to mid 50's to upper 40's North and NW of NYC. A thunderstorm or two cannot be ruled out either, and localized flooding will be possible. Models spitting out between .7" and 1.5" of rain for us. Windy too, would not be surprised if we get Coastal flooding warnings and or localized flooding/flash flood warnings/watches. 



TUESDAY - Maybe a few lingering showers in the morning as the cold front associated with our Monday system passes through in the early morning. Otherwise clearing out partly cloudy/sunny highs in the low to mid 60's.

WEDNESDAY - Another cold front will come through in the afternoon/evening in response to a system well to the north of us, so a chance of some showers. Otherwise partly sunny/cloudy throughout the day highs in the low 60's.

------------------------FORECAST DISCUSSION--------------------------

So so week ahead of us! I am sure all of you enjoyed this weekends weather, ALMOST got to 80° yesterday, just shy at 79.6° as our official high for the day. 

Monday's soaking system will usher in a bit of a "change" in the jet stream which will allow for colder air to filter in for the week (cold is relative, so not cold cold, but colder then last week) and many systems to come through providing many many chances for rain and other yucky weather...possibly wintry for some??? You may be asking yourself if you read that right, you did, there will be chances for some of you to get some wintry mess this week.

The models are also hinting at 2 possible bigger storms developing towards the end of next week. The first, if it forms as it shows on the models right now would not affect us in any big way as it will be too far NE...the second one looks pretty potent and big and should be watched, that would be next week. 

Models are also strongly hinting at something that would have been really nice to have back in February: Blocking. A -NAO, -AO and - to + PNA will set up High latitude blocking over Greenland. This will greatly effect the two possible storms I have mentioned above as blocking will allow them to strengthen/phase more over us before moving out to sea. So definitely something to watch for. 

Have a great rest of the day!

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