Saturday Afternoon Update - Here comes Bill!!!!

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Updated: 1700z/13:00/1:00PM
NOTE: SORRY FOR NO UPDATES in the last week, Dillon and I have both had finals and have been really busy!

---------------------------------FORECAST-----------------------------------

REST OF TODAY - Chance for some scattered showers, maybe a isolated t-storm especially ENE of NYC, but otherwise cloudy, highs into low to mid 70's. Rain arriving tonight.

TONIGHT - Widespread rain arriving between 9 and 10pm, light at first but getting heavier as the night goes on and Bill comes closer. Watch for localized flooding, and some t-storms, heavy heavy tropical rain. Rain probably between .75-1.5" tonight. lows around 70°.

SUNDAY - Rain, heavy rain, a break then more rain! Heavy rain in the morning will continue on and off throughout the day as Bill moves on out by mid afternoon...A BREAK! but no wink emoticon another shortwave comes through in the evening and will spread more rain...not nearly as heavy though, but still rain. Maybe some sun peaking through in the afternoon as Bill moves out. THERE IS A FLOOD WATCH, SO BE CAREFUL! Highs in the mid to high 80's, muggy and disgusting.

MONDAY - Weak ridging and high pressure builds into the area, drier air as well, highs in low 80's, mostly sunny with some clouds.

TUESDAY - Potential for a thunderstorm in the afternoon, otherwise partly cloudy and warm above average, low to mid 80's.

------------------------FORECAST DISCUSSION--------------------------

Here comes Bill!!! Well really remnants of Bill, but its good enough!

High pressure will continue to move offshore today into the afternoon, and low level moisture will increase. As this happens warm air advection will strengthen as remnants of Bill get closer. Dewpoints will continue increase a a lot tonight into mid 60's and isolated t-storms this afternoon. The shortwave (open) that is Bill moves in later tonight, should see rain east of the Hudson River/NYC after 9pm, surface low moves through by Sunday afternoon, heavy rain tonight and much of tomorrow on and off, t-storms too, not much in the way of wind but maybe some nice gusts with t-storms. PWAT (Precipitable water) 2.3" by this evening, spots 3" tomorrow, axis of heaviest rain North Central NJ through to NYC metro area/ suburbs and along LI. Watch for second shortwave in the evening tomorrow so a break of rain as bill moves out, then another bout of it but not as heavy but maybe a t-storm or two.

Some of the models have quite a lot of rain in store for us, just look at the pictures below. Watch for localized flooding!!!!

Getting into Monday and Tuesday, above average temps +5 or so in the mid 80's then a bit of a cool down to more normal temps by mid week. Plenty of chances for some t-storms as shortwaves come through between Ridging and High pressure.

Congratz to everybody who graduated today!!! and enjoy the first week of no school smile emoticon unless you got chem wink emoticon