Well, as expected, some heavy rain fell here last night along with quite a bit of wind. A general 1-2" of rain fell across the area, with some heavier amounts over central and southern NJ, where (according to the National Weather Service) as much as 4" fell. So, what's in the forecast for the rest of the week?
Forecast
Tonight: Any leftover sprinkle and shower activity should lift to our north, allowing for partial clearing overnight. Lows tonight should range in the mid to upper 50s, except over central Connecticut, where lows may drop down to as low as 50.
Monday: Any clouds in the morning should give way to mostly sunny skies during the day, with any lingering precipitation and most clouds kept well north of the area. Highs will range in the mid to upper 70s.
Tuesday: It will be mostly sunny across the area during the morning and early afternoon, however, clouds and showers/thunderstorms will build in from west to east ahead of the next shortwave due to arrive in the night and during the day on Wednesday. Highs will range in the low to mid 80s.
Wednesday: Thunderstorms will be likely throughout the day with highs in the low to mid 80s. Some of the thunderstorms may be on the stronger side, but predictability on their locations and exact strength are too low this far out.
Discussion
The next couple of days feature our low that dumped heavy rain across the region exit to the northeast as mostly sunny skies build into the area. The next feature of interest will be a shortwave entering the region Tuesday night into Wednesday. Although precipitation amounts should be on the lighter side compared to our last system, we will still need to watch out for the possibility of stronger thunderstorms that have the potential to drop heavy rain and wind in a short period of time. The CAPE forecast on some models (including the GFS shown below) do show some energy in the atmosphere that thunderstorms can work with to potentially gain strength. Current models show the strongest of these thunderstorms tracking to the north of the area, but unfortunately, placement and exact strength of these thunderstorms cannot be predicted well three days out, so check back in tomorrow for an updated forecast for Wednesday. Temperatures on all three days, even if precipitation falls, should remain summer-like with highs in the 70s and 80s.
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