Weather in the Hud with Dillon and Remy

Friday Evening Weather Update - Weekend Outlook Rain in Sight!
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Updated: 0030z/8:30PM

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REST OF TODAY - Temperatures will begin to cool down into the high 60's for the night, mostly clear....BUT

TONIGHT - Clouds rolling in tonight as High pressure moves offshore and moist humid and warmer air moves in...fog possible as the the dry cooler air meets the warmer humid air...lows in the high 60's to maybe even low 70's.

SATURDAY - Partly Sunny/Cloudy with a good chance of t-storms rolling in the afternoon as a SSW flow sets up and instability ramps up a bit...watch out for those smile emoticon Temps in the low 80's, humid.

SUNDAY - Cold front approaches and as NRG comes along with it, ridging to the south of us should slow it down, ridging behind it will bring cooler air and give us a nice wet day LIKELY, and much needed rain. Cooler highs in the low to mid 70's.

MONDAY - Chance of showers in the morning depending on the system setup for Sunday, otherwise cloudy to partly sunny highs COLD just about in the 58-62° range, drier as the day goes on.

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Can we FINALLY get some good rains? Looks like our best bet is gonna be Sunday for this system, if it comes along smile emoticon

Cold front sweeps in from the NW coming down across the great lakes with High pressure behind it bringing down colder Canadian air Saturday night into Sunday, mostly late morning through the afternoon for all east of the Hudson River, although some places well to the north might get it before NYC area does, NOW, here is the question, NRG comes in with this...do we develop a nice slow moving soaker as Ridging on both sides slows us down? Or do we weaken the Atlantic Ridging more and this Cold front just sweeps through in and out...all this is gonna decide how much rain we do get. Right now looking at the data I am confident in saying we will see the front stall and the shortwave NRG slides along it....but for how long.,...? Greatest chance for heavy rain Sunday evening through early Monday morning. The Euro likes the more rain idea as it keeps it a more neutral tilted trough and allows more LP/shortwaves to "dance" across it maybe even into late Monday.

After our system, High pressure behind it builds into the area, drier and much cooler conditions appear for much of next week.

El Nino Update! Ok, lets talk SST's: SST's across the Eastern Pacific, namely in the Nino 12 area are exploding (haha get it? explodding?...OK not literally :P) and the thermocline is getting deeper...that being said I am not seeing a "SUPER NINO" off the charts scenario...even though the models have many ensembles going +3.5°C Anomaly, which is absurdly high, the mean, and averages are sticking around +2 to 2.2°C anomaly. For comparison, the Super El Nino of 97/98 got to between +4-5°C. The warmest waters are in the east right now moving west, slowly, but definitely moving, especially deepening the expansion to 50-75m below sea level, this will continue...the question is how much. I am liking the JAMSTEC model which is usually pretty good at these ENSO events, as the modellers at JAMSTEC focus more on the oceans then others do...so, they are giving us an El Nino peaking Late August to September...possibly later, to +1.5 to +1.8°C before backing off to a Modoki signature like we saw last winter (hence why my idea for the winter is as it is)...Anyway....lets see how this turns out and more updates on it coming soon!

Cya guys!