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Long time no see! New Update with some big news!

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Updated: 2335z/19:35/7:35PM
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Hey guys! It has been a while now hasn't it! Dillon and I have been very busy this summer with research, camp, travelling...and...drum roll please...our website! Yes, Through the IEF and administration at the Irvington High School and the AMAZING program that they started last school year; The Innovation Fund; we were given a grant which enabled us to have a professional website designed and built for us. We will now be using this new website as our official page, and will NOT be posting on this page. Our Facebook page will continue to be posted on, the same posts as on our new website. With the Innovation Fund grant, we will also be [hopefully] doing education with kids in the school on meteorology, weather, forecasting, and climate. We will continue to provide what we think are the best, most up to date, specific and accurate forecasts for our town and the Hudson Valley. Come see our forecasts for the latest and greatest in weather and climate, and thank you again to everybody who has supported us since the beginning and trusted in us :) 
LINK to the NEW WEBSITE: www.weatherinthehud.com REMEMBER to sign up at the bottom so you get email updates :) 
LINK to the latest POST: http://www.weatherinthehud.com/2015/08/21/friday-evening-update-nice-weekend-weather/

Sunday Evening Update

Sunday 7:45PM Update

Well, as expected, some heavy rain fell here last night along with quite a bit of wind. A general 1-2" of rain fell across the area, with some heavier amounts over central and southern NJ, where (according to the National Weather Service) as much as 4" fell. So, what's in the forecast for the rest of the week?

Forecast 

Tonight: Any leftover sprinkle and shower activity should lift to our north, allowing for partial clearing overnight. Lows tonight should range in the mid to upper 50s, except over central Connecticut, where lows may drop down to as low as 50. 

Monday: Any clouds in the morning should give way to mostly sunny skies during the day, with any lingering precipitation and most clouds kept well north of the area. Highs will range in the mid to upper 70s. 

Tuesday: It will be mostly sunny across the area during the morning and early afternoon, however, clouds and showers/thunderstorms will build in from west to east ahead of the next shortwave due to arrive in the night and during the day on Wednesday. Highs will range in the low to mid 80s. 

Wednesday: Thunderstorms will be likely throughout the day with highs in the low to mid 80s. Some of the thunderstorms may be on the stronger side, but predictability on their locations and exact strength are too low this far out. 

Discussion

The next couple of days feature our low that dumped heavy rain across the region exit to the northeast as mostly sunny skies build into the area. The next feature of interest will be a shortwave entering the region Tuesday night into Wednesday. Although precipitation amounts should be on the lighter side compared to our last system, we will still need to watch out for the possibility of stronger thunderstorms that have the potential to drop heavy rain and wind in a short period of time. The CAPE forecast on some models (including the GFS shown below) do show some energy in the atmosphere that thunderstorms can work with to potentially gain strength. Current models show the strongest of these thunderstorms tracking to the north of the area, but unfortunately, placement and exact strength of these thunderstorms cannot be predicted well three days out, so check back in tomorrow for an updated forecast for Wednesday. Temperatures on all three days, even if precipitation falls, should remain summer-like with highs in the 70s and 80s. 

Saturday Evening Update

7:00PM Saturday Update 

Hi everyone, while Remy is away until July 20th, I will be writing the posts at least until July 4th, and then depending on the internet access at Oxford and my available time, I should be able to post at least sporadically from July 4th until July 20th.

Forecast

Tonight: Rain will become steadier and will be quite heavy during the overnight hours into the morning tomorrow. A general 1-2" of rain can be expected across the region, with higher amounts north and west of the area and lower over Long Island. Lows will be in the mid 50s to low 60s. It will be windy with gusts between 35-40 knots possible.

Sunday: Morning rain should taper off to showers, with partial clearing in the afternoon. Highs will be in the upper 70s to low 80s across the entire region.

Monday: Mostly sunny throughout the day, with highs in the low to mid 70s. Clouds may build in during the evening hours, but the day should remain dry, with the greatest chance of any light shower activity north of the region.

Tuesday: Clouds will build in during the evening, but before then Tuesday is looking great with highs in the upper 70s to around 80 with mostly sunny skies. Then, we look to our next system coming through bringing rain and thunderstorms for Tuesday night into Wednesday. More on that in tomorrow's post.


Discussion

Our storm system that gave us some rain today will deepen overnight and produce some heavy rain in the region, with the heaviest of the rain to the north and west of us. Still, 1-2" are possible here with up to 3" in the heaviest bands. Watch out for some pretty gusty winds tonight, with sustained winds of 10-15 knots and gusts 35-40 knots possible. After the storm system clears out tomorrow, we are looking at some pretty good weather for the latter part of Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday with a chance for some wet weather on each day. Monday appears the best of the next three days. The next system to track will be a shortwave on Tuesday night into Wednesday, although it should not be as organized as today's system was (and will be), meaning less in the way of precipitation. However, we will still have to watch for the possibility of heavy rain in thunderstorms that may be severe in some areas. More on that tomorrow.

Friday Afternoon Quick Update - Important note below

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Updated: 0200z/22:00/10PM
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NOTE: I will be leaving tomorrow morning until July 20th to camp. Since I will have no internet, I will be UNABLE to post on the blog during this time. Dillon will post until he leaves for London on July 4th, and then after that the blog will be silent until the 20th. We are sorry for any inconveniences this may cause.

---------------------------------FORECAST-----------------------------------

TONIGHT - lows in the low 60's, cloudy getting cloudier with a chance of a t-storm.

SATURDAY - Here comes the rain! Soaker coming as we get a Mid Latitude Cyclone coming, cloudy in the morning with rain arriving around early to midday between 11 and 12pm. Highs in low 70's. Rain may be heavy at times especially North and NW of here.

SUNDAY - A T-storm is possible in the morning and again maybe in the afternoon, otherwise cloudy with some sun highs in the mid 70's.

MONDAY - Mostly Sunny, highs in the high 70's.

-------------------------FORECAST DISCUSSION-------------------------

A deepening low pressure system will move through the lakes and move north over western NY tonight into tomorrow, tracking ENE with a second low forming in the Delmarva Saturday night. Euro painting the picture I like best, because it has been consistent...anyway, dry morning tomorrow becoming wet and wetter throughout the day especially in the northern NYC suburbs and N/NW of it. Low level convergence and highest lift will be to the NW as well keeping the heaviest rain that way. Low moves through the area Saturday night, Precipitable water upwards of 2.2" so a lot of rain guys! 2-3" of rain will definitely be possible in the Hudson Valley so be careful for localized flooding. Rain ends Sunday early morning, watch for gusty winds as well 35-40kts.

Plenty of shortwaves coming through in the next week, so watch for isolated t-storms throughout the week, but Dillon will keep you guys updated!

Have a great next month folks!!!!

Tuesday Afternoon Quick Update - Severe T-Storms on the way!

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Updated: 1957z/15:57/3:57pm

---------------------------------FORECAST-----------------------------------

REST OF TODAY - SPC has Upgraded us to the enhanced section of their scale, with a 40-50% chance of gusts over 50 miles per hour, 10-20% of 1" hail, and 5-10% chance of an isolated tornado. Watch for locally severe thunderstorms, possible hail, heavy wind gusts and possible isolated tornado from now through this evening as the cold front comes through and storms head out. Heaviest storms will likely be between 4:30 and 5:30pm with it all moving out between 6-7 around NYC metro area, 7-8 points east of that, and a bit later out by Montauk and Nantucket.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES:

FAIRFIELD COUNTY IN SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT...
WESTERN NEW HAVEN COUNTY IN SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT...
PUTNAM COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN NEW YORK...
WESTCHESTER COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN NEW YORK...
...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED AN AREA OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN EXCESS OF
60 MPH. THESE STORMS ARE LOCATED NEAR YORKTOWN HEIGHTS...OR NEAR
MOUNT KISCO...AND MOVING EAST AT 60 MPH. PENNY SIZE HAIL MAY ALSO
ACCOMPANY THE DAMAGING WINDS.

(FROM THE SPC)

Watch out folks! Be careful! Watch for heavy rain as well and some localized flooding!

Temps will go down to low 70's/high 60's tonight.

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=okx&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=no

Monday Evening Update - Solar Storm Tonight, Storms Tomorrow

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Updated: 0055z/20:55/8:55PM

----------------------------------FORECAST----------------------------------

TONIGHT - Partly cloudy, lows around 70°. Big thing for tonight is the MASSIVE solar storm going on...IF YOU go outside tonight you MIGHT be able to see the Aurora, most commonly known as the Northern Lights because of the power of this solar storm. If you do go out, make sure you are facing north towards the horizon, and away from city lights...you may be lucky! If so TAKE PICS! 

TUESDAY - Mostly cloudy skies for central New England, as t-storms depart from tonight, otherwise partly cloudy and hot, muggy disgusting down by NYC getting highs into high 80's if not reaching or just above 90° especially by NYC. T-Storms arriving in the afternoon as a cold front comes through - these could be big and severe thunder storms, gusty winds, heavy rain bursts and maybe some hail. These will clear out by midnight likely, SPC has us in the slight to ENHANCED zone for severe weather, they do mean business. 


WEDNESDAY - Sunny, nice, really beautiful day, drier and a tad cooler air highs in low to mid 80's.

THURSDAY - Partly sunny, getting cloudier in the evening as our next system approaches. Highs in high 70's to low 80's.

FRIDAY - Rain in the morning should taper off by afternoon - but this still has some kinks that must be worked out to it. More info Wednesday.

--------------------------FORECAST DISCUSSION------------------------

Big storms coming tomorrow night folks! SPC has us in the slight to enhanced zone in terms of their severe weather catagories, so lets keep an eye on them. Threat is bigger as you get into South Central New England (Western CT/MA) and the Mid Hudson Valley. Coastal Areas along the LI Sound and Boston, Nantucket may fair better as t-storms will have a bit of a hard time keeping themselves together all the way to the coast.

Warm front lifts to the north in the morning, SW flow sets up bringing in warm and moist air through the day, up to 90° or above in NYC and surrounding metro area especially around Newark and the shore, watch for the heat index it will be high tomorrow!!!!! Instability increases throughout the day as cold front approaches, CAPE 1800-2400 across much of the area - perfect for severe weather, scattered t-storms and showers developing in the mid to late afternoon, mostly after 3pm with an organized MCS line developing West of the Hudson moving SE, with good shear 35-50kts or so and high CAPE, these t-storms should easily reach severe level. SLIGHT risk for an isolated tornado, most likely in areas talked about above, but see the map in the pictures. Hail a definite possibility as well and gusty winds are the main threat. 

All storms should push out in the early to late evening, maybe a few stray isolated showers later, but definitely all clear by 9-10pm as the Cold Front passes through spreading drier air into the region. 

Getting into the rest of the week, NICE day Wednesday as weak high pressure builds, perfect for the Kooks Concert in Central Park :). 

Trough comes through Thursday night into Friday - exact location, timing and strength of it is still being tossed around so more updates later on what it will mean for us. 

Have a great week!

Saturday Afternoon Update - Here comes Bill!!!!

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Updated: 1700z/13:00/1:00PM
NOTE: SORRY FOR NO UPDATES in the last week, Dillon and I have both had finals and have been really busy!

---------------------------------FORECAST-----------------------------------

REST OF TODAY - Chance for some scattered showers, maybe a isolated t-storm especially ENE of NYC, but otherwise cloudy, highs into low to mid 70's. Rain arriving tonight.

TONIGHT - Widespread rain arriving between 9 and 10pm, light at first but getting heavier as the night goes on and Bill comes closer. Watch for localized flooding, and some t-storms, heavy heavy tropical rain. Rain probably between .75-1.5" tonight. lows around 70°.

SUNDAY - Rain, heavy rain, a break then more rain! Heavy rain in the morning will continue on and off throughout the day as Bill moves on out by mid afternoon...A BREAK! but no wink emoticon another shortwave comes through in the evening and will spread more rain...not nearly as heavy though, but still rain. Maybe some sun peaking through in the afternoon as Bill moves out. THERE IS A FLOOD WATCH, SO BE CAREFUL! Highs in the mid to high 80's, muggy and disgusting.

MONDAY - Weak ridging and high pressure builds into the area, drier air as well, highs in low 80's, mostly sunny with some clouds.

TUESDAY - Potential for a thunderstorm in the afternoon, otherwise partly cloudy and warm above average, low to mid 80's.

------------------------FORECAST DISCUSSION--------------------------

Here comes Bill!!! Well really remnants of Bill, but its good enough!

High pressure will continue to move offshore today into the afternoon, and low level moisture will increase. As this happens warm air advection will strengthen as remnants of Bill get closer. Dewpoints will continue increase a a lot tonight into mid 60's and isolated t-storms this afternoon. The shortwave (open) that is Bill moves in later tonight, should see rain east of the Hudson River/NYC after 9pm, surface low moves through by Sunday afternoon, heavy rain tonight and much of tomorrow on and off, t-storms too, not much in the way of wind but maybe some nice gusts with t-storms. PWAT (Precipitable water) 2.3" by this evening, spots 3" tomorrow, axis of heaviest rain North Central NJ through to NYC metro area/ suburbs and along LI. Watch for second shortwave in the evening tomorrow so a break of rain as bill moves out, then another bout of it but not as heavy but maybe a t-storm or two.

Some of the models have quite a lot of rain in store for us, just look at the pictures below. Watch for localized flooding!!!!

Getting into Monday and Tuesday, above average temps +5 or so in the mid 80's then a bit of a cool down to more normal temps by mid week. Plenty of chances for some t-storms as shortwaves come through between Ridging and High pressure.

Congratz to everybody who graduated today!!! and enjoy the first week of no school smile emoticon unless you got chem wink emoticon

Sunday Afternoon Update - Heavy rain coming, Tropical Moisture next week?

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Updated: 2250z/18:50/6:50PM

----------------------------------FORECAST----------------------------------

TONIGHT - Watch the floods! As warm front digs in and low pressure waves move across it, frontogenesis will occur and heavy rain + t-storms, some severe will role up to our front doors! Most models predicting between .75-1.2" of rain before tomorrow evening. Clouds will role in this evening, watch for rain and storms to start mostly after 8-9pm and last through the night. Lows in the low 60's.

MONDAY - Heavy rain in the morning will continue on and off in periods, some of the storms and t-storms could be severe and bring heavy rain - watch for localized flooding. Highs in the mid to high 70's. WET DAY

TUESDAY - Warmer, partly sunny in the morning with clouds in the afternoon with a real good chance of some heavy rain/t-storms in the evening as a cold front rips through the area. Highs in the low 80's.

WEDNESDAY - High pressure builds into the area behind the cold front, highs around 80°, mostly if not completely sunny...beautiful day! 

-------------------------FORECAST DISCUSSION-------------------------

Well do we have a wet week coming up or what! YES, rain will dominate the first 2 days of the week… then some calm before another possible system that will traverse through the area late week into the weekend – POSSIBLY aided from remnants of the tropical mess that will impact the gulf – which by the way is a very interesting situation! So…..lots to talk about, let’s break it all down:

Warm front approaches tonight from the SW, at the same time Low Pressure will form along it and slide up into the area. Cold front exits the region tomorrow night and another Cold front Tuesday will continue the rain through to Tuesday Night before High pressure builds behind it briefly into Wednesday (so good weather Wednesday). Precipitation moves in slowly this evening and into the night as ridging moves to our east, adiabatic (isentropic) lift will increase, as well as instability as the warm front digs in and creates Frontogenesis. Thunder and any t-storms will arrive later as it will take a while for the precip to arrive and for forcing to begin, so most likely heavy rain with some thunder then t-storms late in the night after midnight. Locally heavy rainfall through the night and into tomorrow especially in the late morning through the afternoon as insolation heats things up and mesoscale complexes move through the region. Heaviest storms will be across NW Jersey into Westchester and NYC, into Philly and Baltimore. Heavy rain to the north of that, but not as much in the way of heavy t-storms – as of now.

NEXT THING on the LIST: Tropical Development? I know I said I didn’t think we would get a “named” storm from the NHC…AND I still think they will have a hard time naming it…BUT BUT BUT, it certainly will be a tropical system coming into the gulf region of Texas with gale force winds and heavy rain that could very well flood Houston and surrounding areas AGAIN (Sorry Redneck ) The models are also indicating conditions will improve for development as the system crosses into Texas – meaning it could very well become more organized and defined after “landfall” and stay organized as it recurves back up through the Ohio Valley and into the Northeast. SO…That other system I said might affect us late next week could very well be aided by tropical moisture and remnants from the system currently brewing in the Yucatan peninsula which should make it into Texas in the next 72-96 hours. Will keep everybody updated on this! See Picture!

Friday Afternoon Update - Eyes on the gulf, and more rain

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Updated: 2045z/16:45/4:45PM

---------------------------------FORECAST-----------------------------------

TONIGHT - Scattered thunderstorms in the evening and into the night, guys these are isolated and some may get hit, some may not. Some are strong, others are not as strong. But, chance for isolated thunderstorms and heavier downpours especially as you get further north of NYC and as the warm front sweeps through. Lows in the high 60's to around 70°.

SATURDAY - Highs a bit cooler then today, low 80's and a bit drier as high pressure (weak) builds in behind the cold front from Friday night. Watch for some clouds, but otherwise should be a nice day, small chance of a t-storm in the morning though.

SUNDAY - Some sun in the morning but watch for those clouds moving in. Highs in the low 80's.

MONDAY - Rain is coming - most likely wink emoticon warm front comes through Monday followed by a cold front Tuesday, so expect more widespread rain and some t-storms localized heavy downpours as well. Highs a bit cooler in low to mid 70's.

--------------------------FORECAST DISCUSSION------------------------

And so a new pattern is coming! Upper level ridging and High pressure will build over the SE likely focusing the heaviest rains Texas --> Oklahoma --> Illinois --> Ohio --> Mid Atlantic/NY. In addition to this, eyes on the gulf! Will we get a TC out of the mess down there? likely NO, but we sure will get some heavy rains and flooding and winds for Texas and up on along that axis I explained above (which is in the picture as well below)

Warm front approaches Sunday and cross the area Monday bringing more widespread rain to the area, cold front moves in through Tuesday, the rain should all end by Tuesday night and give a nice Wednesday as weak high pressure builds but lets watch for another system that could affect us Thur-Fri next week.

Quick note on the MJO - Seeing it go into phase 3 in the next couple of weeks, which means for us continued above average temps...not by much, but a bit, that being said watch for those bursts of colder air smile emoticon

Have a great weekend guys!