Monday, June 22, 2015

Monday Evening Update - Solar Storm Tonight, Storms Tomorrow

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Updated: 0055z/20:55/8:55PM
----------------------------------FORECAST----------------------------------
TONIGHT - Partly cloudy, lows around 70°. Big thing for tonight is the MASSIVE solar storm going on...IF YOU go outside tonight you MIGHT be able to see the Aurora, most commonly known as the Northern Lights because of the power of this solar storm. If you do go out, make sure you are facing north towards the horizon, and away from city lights...you may be lucky! If so TAKE PICS! 

TUESDAY - Mostly cloudy skies for central New England, as t-storms depart from tonight, otherwise partly cloudy and hot, muggy disgusting down by NYC getting highs into high 80's if not reaching or just above 90° especially by NYC. T-Storms arriving in the afternoon as a cold front comes through - these could be big and severe thunder storms, gusty winds, heavy rain bursts and maybe some hail. These will clear out by midnight likely, SPC has us in the slight to ENHANCED zone for severe weather, they do mean business. 


WEDNESDAY - Sunny, nice, really beautiful day, drier and a tad cooler air highs in low to mid 80's.

THURSDAY - Partly sunny, getting cloudier in the evening as our next system approaches. Highs in high 70's to low 80's.

FRIDAY - Rain in the morning should taper off by afternoon - but this still has some kinks that must be worked out to it. More info Wednesday.

--------------------------FORECAST DISCUSSION------------------------
Big storms coming tomorrow night folks! SPC has us in the slight to enhanced zone in terms of their severe weather catagories, so lets keep an eye on them. Threat is bigger as you get into South Central New England (Western CT/MA) and the Mid Hudson Valley. Coastal Areas along the LI Sound and Boston, Nantucket may fair better as t-storms will have a bit of a hard time keeping themselves together all the way to the coast.

Warm front lifts to the north in the morning, SW flow sets up bringing in warm and moist air through the day, up to 90° or above in NYC and surrounding metro area especially around Newark and the shore, watch for the heat index it will be high tomorrow!!!!! Instability increases throughout the day as cold front approaches, CAPE 1800-2400 across much of the area - perfect for severe weather, scattered t-storms and showers developing in the mid to late afternoon, mostly after 3pm with an organized MCS line developing West of the Hudson moving SE, with good shear 35-50kts or so and high CAPE, these t-storms should easily reach severe level. SLIGHT risk for an isolated tornado, most likely in areas talked about above, but see the map in the pictures. Hail a definite possibility as well and gusty winds are the main threat. 




All storms should push out in the early to late evening, maybe a few stray isolated showers later, but definitely all clear by 9-10pm as the Cold Front passes through spreading drier air into the region. 

Getting into the rest of the week, NICE day Wednesday as weak high pressure builds, perfect for the Kooks Concert in Central Park :). 

Trough comes through Thursday night into Friday - exact location, timing and strength of it is still being tossed around so more updates later on what it will mean for us. 

Have a great week!

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