Sunday Afternoon Update - Heavy rain coming, Tropical Moisture next week?

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Updated: 2250z/18:50/6:50PM

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TONIGHT - Watch the floods! As warm front digs in and low pressure waves move across it, frontogenesis will occur and heavy rain + t-storms, some severe will role up to our front doors! Most models predicting between .75-1.2" of rain before tomorrow evening. Clouds will role in this evening, watch for rain and storms to start mostly after 8-9pm and last through the night. Lows in the low 60's.

MONDAY - Heavy rain in the morning will continue on and off in periods, some of the storms and t-storms could be severe and bring heavy rain - watch for localized flooding. Highs in the mid to high 70's. WET DAY

TUESDAY - Warmer, partly sunny in the morning with clouds in the afternoon with a real good chance of some heavy rain/t-storms in the evening as a cold front rips through the area. Highs in the low 80's.

WEDNESDAY - High pressure builds into the area behind the cold front, highs around 80°, mostly if not completely sunny...beautiful day! 

-------------------------FORECAST DISCUSSION-------------------------

Well do we have a wet week coming up or what! YES, rain will dominate the first 2 days of the week… then some calm before another possible system that will traverse through the area late week into the weekend – POSSIBLY aided from remnants of the tropical mess that will impact the gulf – which by the way is a very interesting situation! So…..lots to talk about, let’s break it all down:

Warm front approaches tonight from the SW, at the same time Low Pressure will form along it and slide up into the area. Cold front exits the region tomorrow night and another Cold front Tuesday will continue the rain through to Tuesday Night before High pressure builds behind it briefly into Wednesday (so good weather Wednesday). Precipitation moves in slowly this evening and into the night as ridging moves to our east, adiabatic (isentropic) lift will increase, as well as instability as the warm front digs in and creates Frontogenesis. Thunder and any t-storms will arrive later as it will take a while for the precip to arrive and for forcing to begin, so most likely heavy rain with some thunder then t-storms late in the night after midnight. Locally heavy rainfall through the night and into tomorrow especially in the late morning through the afternoon as insolation heats things up and mesoscale complexes move through the region. Heaviest storms will be across NW Jersey into Westchester and NYC, into Philly and Baltimore. Heavy rain to the north of that, but not as much in the way of heavy t-storms – as of now.

NEXT THING on the LIST: Tropical Development? I know I said I didn’t think we would get a “named” storm from the NHC…AND I still think they will have a hard time naming it…BUT BUT BUT, it certainly will be a tropical system coming into the gulf region of Texas with gale force winds and heavy rain that could very well flood Houston and surrounding areas AGAIN (Sorry Redneck ) The models are also indicating conditions will improve for development as the system crosses into Texas – meaning it could very well become more organized and defined after “landfall” and stay organized as it recurves back up through the Ohio Valley and into the Northeast. SO…That other system I said might affect us late next week could very well be aided by tropical moisture and remnants from the system currently brewing in the Yucatan peninsula which should make it into Texas in the next 72-96 hours. Will keep everybody updated on this! See Picture!