Weather in the Hud with Dillon and Remy: *******MONDAY NIGHT FORECAST DISCUSSION*************

Monday, January 5, 2015

*MONDAY NIGHT FORECAST DISCUSSION*******

***ISSUING an Alert of Light to moderate snowfall Tomorrow Tuesday the 6th from mid morning until afternoon and possibly evening***

YESSS Folks first Alberta Clipper will be affecting us tomorrow from mid morning until the Afternoon and possibly evening hours. THE characteristics of Alberta Clippers, which are usually fast, and do not have THAT much moisture to deal with also make it quite difficult to forecast...SO, I have a feeling, based off of the latest data from the models, and looking at other maps, that we might be getting a bit more then the major sites are forecasting, and it might be a BIT MORE heavy than you think, as was the Snow on Saturday (Short lived, but it came down!).
SO! Here is my forecast, and a snow totals map will be posted. ANOTHER thing to keep in mind - The TEMPERATURES aloft in the Atmosphere are SO COLD (Below 0*C) that something to watch with this clipper will be "Fluff" Factor - USUALLY we go by a standard ratio of 10:1 when forecasting snow amounts (10" snow = 1" rain)...SO, on a map, .5" of QPF (Liquid) would be 5" of snow. 1" QPF would be 10" snow. NOW, because these temperatures are so cold, we could be looking at a 15 or 20:1 ratio...so, .3" QPF would yield 4.5-6" of snow with a 15-20:1 ratio!

So, the models right now are forecasting 1-2" of snow for us based off of a 10:1 ratio...assuming that we actually get a 15-20:1 ratio, that 1-2" (0.1-0.2" QPF) suddenly becomes 1.5-3" or 2-4" of snow.

In this forecast, I have used a 18:1 ratio, and have combined all of the major models to get an average amount of QPF for our area. This is reflected on the map!.
ANOTHER thing with this clipper, it will be Riding the Jetstream the whole way...so, what is usually a fast storm suddenly became faster. I think that once it hits the warm water it will rapidly intensify, and slow down and give us more snow - which may happen depending on the winds in the Jet, or may not happen. ALOTTA tiny details for even a small storm!

OTHER THEN THE CLIPPER, COLLLLDDDDEST TEMPS OF THE SEASON COMING THIS WEEK, THURSDAY WILL BE THE COLDEST. A MINOR PULLBACK THIS WEEKEND, THEN ANOTHER COLD SHOT.

************************FORECAST**************************

TONIGHT - COLLDDDD and Clear skies will make it EVEN COLDER! Those winds today was the first of several cold fronts to come through, and tonight temps will drop to the low to mid teens. Much colder as you make your way to the North and into the Mountains and NW towards the Canadian Border. Coastal areas a few degrees warmer then inland.

TOMORROW - Snow will begin early to mid morning and continue lightly, maybe some stronger bands but I don't think it will get too bad. Total accumulations 1-3" for now, this COULD change tomorrow keep an eye out! Snow will stick around until mid afternoon, maybe evening. TEMPS BARELY MAKING IT TO MID 20'S, COLDER INLAND.

WEDNESDAY - Highs in the mid to HIGH teens...Morning WINDCHILLS COULD GO AND STAY IN THE NEGATIVES!

THURSDAY - Highs in the LOW Teens, maybe even below 10*, windchills possibly -20* or less.

Friday we have another chance at a clipper, and Monday-Tuesday chance of a coastal storm developing which would bring snow.

SNOWFALL MAP BELOW, EXPECT UPDATES LATER!

WILL BE POSTING TEMP MAPS FOR THE NEXT WEEK, AND WINDCHILL TEMPS

WINDCHILL Temperatures for Tomorrow

High Temperatures Tomorrow!!! COLLDDD

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About Us

Remy Mermelstein - I am 16 and in 10th grade at Irvington High School in Irvington, NY. My love for weather has been around all my life, starting with my absolute obsession with winter and snowstorms since I was a toddler. In addition to weather, I pursue an active life in architecture, interning at a local architects office (Website can be found HERE) and doing many community projects, building, designing and landscaping. I am pursuing a pilot’s license as well, and my knowledge and love for weather helps greatly when flying. My weather page, Weather or Not in the Rivertowns with Remy Mermelstein has been up for about a year now, and I update it at least every other day or more with the latest in weather. I study weather extensively on my own time, and am extremely active in the forums on many weather sites, my favorite being Weatherbell where the knowledge of some of the world’s greatest forecasters are available to me, as well as the massive community of meteorologists, climatologists and pure hobbyists this world has. Dillon and I are also currently working with Joe D'aleo on Science Research involving correlations and effects between the NAO/AO/AMO/PDO...etc... Every day brings a new realm of learning to us here at Weather in the Hud, and every day we learn more. So thank you for joining us here to read our forecasts! And, as always, if you have suggestions, advice about our posts, or the weather and our forecasting PLEASE tell us - we are still students and we recognize that, and want to learn as much as we can. Thank you.

Dillon Palmieri – Hi! I am a sophomore at Irvington High School in New York. Like my colleague Remy, my obsession with meteorology started at a young age when I became fascinated by tornadoes at the age of four. From there, my interest in the field expanded to winter storms, severe weather, and finally grew enough for me to want to create my own weather forecasts. Starting last spring (2014), I began officially doing weather forecasts for the public in the Hudson Valley region with Remy on our Facebook page Weather or Not in the Rivertowns. Our popularity quickly grew into hundreds of followers as our forecasts were consistently accurate and provided detailed information that would otherwise not be provided for a specific area such as the Hudson Valley. I also am currently working with Joe D'Aleo, a very well-known meteorologist employed at Weatherbell on a science research project studying the effects of the AMO, PDO, NAO, and AO on global climate. I wish to thank you for visiting our site and please know we welcome any and all input from our followers to make our site better.