OK, Honestly..I do not want to be doing a post right now because I just do not like the limited amount data that is available at the moment. HOWEVER, as I want to provide the LATEST, AND BEST forecasts for all y'all, here ya go.
I know A lot of you dont like details - IF YOU DO NOT...just scroll to bottom too see forecast and pics for maps on snow. But I think it is important to include the details.
Normally what happens with a Nor'Easter like this in the winter is we get a massive snowstorm. PROBLEM is this storm is arrive just a tad to early before that cold air sets in fully. Now this creates some issues for those who want snow down here. A RAPIDLY (AND I DO MEAN RAPIDLY) Deepening (Intensifying) low will develop off the Gulf of mexico tonight and spread heavy rain across the southern states/SE USA. It will move up the Coast tomorrow and move to a position just about 75-100 miles off the Coast of southern NJ/Delaware mid atlantic by Friday Night. It will continue its trek to the NE and drop 30+ Millibars in less then 24 hours...SO..in other words... it will go BOMBOGENESIS once it hits that warm water. It will move EAST OF Montauk and the Cape/Nantucket by Saturday Night.
With a storm THIS STRONG, AND INTENSIFYING SO RAPIDLY what happens, and this will help us, is that it evaporates and condenses the air so quickly that it actually creates its own cold air. This is called Dynamic cooling..and it can change rain to snow pretty quickly. So this is GOOD! NOW! PROBLEMS...Surface temperatures will be around 30-34° depending on where you are, then colder away from the coast down to high 20's. So...Coastal regions....you may end up with more of that snow/ice/rain mix for a while, which would cut down on Snow amounts. However...I think with this dynamic cooling, and the slightly colder solution that the euro shows we can get more snow. GOOD NEWS, IS THAT THE COLD AIR DOES COME QUICKLY, AND SO IT IS NOT INCONCEIVABLE (Princess Bride quote) THAT WE WOULD HAVE A SNOW TO RAIN/SNOW BACK TO SNOW EVENT!
****************EITHER WAY FOLKS, WE WILL GET SNOW! THIS IS NON-NEGOTIABLE AT THIS POINT. ITS JUST DOWN TO FINE TUNING THE TEMPS AND TRACK OF THIS STORM DOWN THE FEW MILES TO GET EXACT PRECIP AMOUNTS.********************
At this point I have limited data, so it is somewhat difficult to PINPOINT exactly whats going on. Maps are posted below, forecast as well.
PLEASE LOOK! GUYS, EITHER WAY THIS SATURDAY WILL BE UGLY!
********FORECAST*********
FRIDAY - Partly Cloudy becoming more cloudy as the system gets closer, Highs in the low 30's.
SATURDAY - SNOW ARRIVING EARLY MORNING, Like 5-6am likely maybe before. Should be light to moderate, Temperatures steady in upper 20's probably. Snow will continue throughout the morning and then likely change to a rain/snow/ice mix for a brief time in the afternoon before turning back to snow and continuing at a heavier clip through the evening and into nighttime at which point it will begin to move out..and completely be outta the area by Sunday morning. Highs on Saturday probably 34-36° in NYC and along immediate coast, to near 40/50 on Long Island. Temps inland from Coast 30-34° and quickly dropping to mid to high 20's during nighttime. As the storm rapidly intensifies off the coast do not be surprised for some gusty winds.
TIMING - Saturday 5-6am until Saturday Midnight tapering off by Sunday EARLY MORNING.
SUNDAY - Cloudy skies will clear out to partly cloudy skies. Small chance of some snow showers, but nothing much.
MONDAY - Not going to go into detail, but we have ANOTHER possible Storm for Monday/Tuesday. It will cold enough that this would likely be all snow IF and only IF it hits. WILL not KNOW until Saturday night/Sunday on that one.
PLEASE REMEMBER FOLKS THIS MAP WILL LIKELY CHANGE. UPDATED MAP GOING UP AGAIN TOMORROW MORNING.
THIS, AS ALWAYS IS A TRICKY FORECAST...CHANGES ARE POSSIBLE.
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