Weather in the Hud with Dillon and Remy: **************SUNDAY EVENING UPDATE ON OUR STORM FOR TOMORROW************

Sunday, January 11, 2015

**SUNDAY EVENING UPDATE ON OUR STORM FOR TOMORROW

*****PUTTING OUT AN ALERT FOR A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN, ICE PELLETS AND SNOW/SLEET FOR TOMORROW MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON******

*****ROADS WILL BECOME SLIPPERY, ICEY, NOT GOING TO BE A GOOD COMMUTE TOMORROW*******

********CALLING FOR MORE A WINTRY STORM FOR THE SUBURBS THEN MANY THINK...IMPORTANT**************

OK FOLKS, once again, as it seems with all of these storms this year, another hard forecast as the boundaries of precip types, amounts, etc. are EXTREMELY close yet again.

A weak low pressure system/overrunning system will continue to form in the Ohio valley tonight and move eastward with a swath of rain to the south and ice/sleet to all snow to the north. THIS IS NOT like the last storm where it took a northerly track over the lakes and was able to bring in all that warm air that brought the highs in to the 50's. This is also where we run into trouble with this storm. It is NOT bringing in much warm air if any at all, and therefore is dealing with whatever arctic air is left in the atmosphere as it moves through.

As usual, the forecast that Dillon and I made for this storm is more RISKY then the major weather sites and other people. But, this is what we feel will happen, and what my gut is saying. I will explain it all below.

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OVER THE PAST WEEK almost, our area has experienced record cold temperatures as all of you have known. In addition to this we have had a 2" layer of snow on the ground for a good portion of that time of extreme cold. SNOW refrigerates the air, and keeps it cooler, so for the past 4-5 days the snow on the ground has been refrigerating the air. Consequently, the forecast temps for our area have been MUCH warmer then the actual temps have gotten too. We have been averaging around 4° or more below the forecast temps, and this will factor into tomorrow's forecast.

As the system comes through the area, it will have ALOT of moisture to deal with, and the convection looks to be strong, especially up in the upper levels of the system where the air is perfect for snow.

SO, TO CONCLUDE, WHEN I SEE THE MAJOR SITES SAYING AN ICEY RAIN/SNOW MIX TO AN ALL RAIN EVENT..., AND THEN I LOOK AT THE RAW DATA - I SEE 2 COMPLETELY DIFFERENT SCENARIOS.....AND PERSONALLY, I TRUST THE RAW DATA (Which Dillon and I still have to interpret) ALOT BETTER!

Here is the forecast:

TONIGHT - Light snow/sleet will break out in the wee hours of the morning, temps steady in the High 20's/VERY LOW 30's. I would say the earliest time precip will be beginning is 6-7am.

MONDAY - Light snow/sleet will transition rather quickly to a freezing rain. GUYS, the TEMPS aloft ARE REALLY COLD! AND THE TEMPS ON THE GROUND ARE ALSO REALLY COLD! IT IS THE TEMPS FROM THE SURFACE TO ABOUT 500-1000 FEET THAT ARE WARM ENOUGH FOR THE LIQUID TO MELT, AND THEN FREEZE ON CONTACT!!!! DANGOROUS STUFF! Freezing rain/ice pellets will transition to a period of rain in the middle of the day, but not for long and then BACK to a SNOW/RAIN MIX....GUYS, I AM BETTING ON MORE OF A SNOW then RAIN MIX here. Temps will RISE to the low to mid 30's by afternoon. Suburbs north of NYC...I DOUBT we will get above 34°. To the North and WEST expect HIGHS in the high 20's to very low 30's.
Map is attached to show the different precip types, accumulations.
TOTAL DAYTIME ACCUMULATIONS:
SNOW - .5-1", MAYBE 1-2" IF WE ARE LUCKY
ICE - 0.10"-.25" - GUYS THIS IS BAD, ICE BAD!!!

Storm will move out in the evening/night hours and COLD air will follow.

*********************SNOW DAY PREDICTION/OPINION FOR THOSE WHO CARE************

Personally, given the type of precipitation, and the timing of the ice (morning) and then the change to snow/rain - I DO THINK there SHOULD be a snowday. BUT THIS IS NOT! AGAIN NOT! MY DECISION! Just my opinion!

********************Dillon will UPDATE THIS TOMORROW BETWEEN 5-6AM********************************************************************

MONDAY NIGHT - STORM CLEARING OUT, TEMPS GOING DOWN TO LOW TO MID 20'S

TUESDAY - SUNNY, highs in the low to mid 20's

WEDNESDAY - Partly sunny chance of a few flurries in the morning, highs near 30°

MAPS BELOW.

*********UPDATE COMING AROUND 5-6AM TOMORROW*********

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About Us

Remy Mermelstein - I am 16 and in 10th grade at Irvington High School in Irvington, NY. My love for weather has been around all my life, starting with my absolute obsession with winter and snowstorms since I was a toddler. In addition to weather, I pursue an active life in architecture, interning at a local architects office (Website can be found HERE) and doing many community projects, building, designing and landscaping. I am pursuing a pilot’s license as well, and my knowledge and love for weather helps greatly when flying. My weather page, Weather or Not in the Rivertowns with Remy Mermelstein has been up for about a year now, and I update it at least every other day or more with the latest in weather. I study weather extensively on my own time, and am extremely active in the forums on many weather sites, my favorite being Weatherbell where the knowledge of some of the world’s greatest forecasters are available to me, as well as the massive community of meteorologists, climatologists and pure hobbyists this world has. Dillon and I are also currently working with Joe D'aleo on Science Research involving correlations and effects between the NAO/AO/AMO/PDO...etc... Every day brings a new realm of learning to us here at Weather in the Hud, and every day we learn more. So thank you for joining us here to read our forecasts! And, as always, if you have suggestions, advice about our posts, or the weather and our forecasting PLEASE tell us - we are still students and we recognize that, and want to learn as much as we can. Thank you.

Dillon Palmieri – Hi! I am a sophomore at Irvington High School in New York. Like my colleague Remy, my obsession with meteorology started at a young age when I became fascinated by tornadoes at the age of four. From there, my interest in the field expanded to winter storms, severe weather, and finally grew enough for me to want to create my own weather forecasts. Starting last spring (2014), I began officially doing weather forecasts for the public in the Hudson Valley region with Remy on our Facebook page Weather or Not in the Rivertowns. Our popularity quickly grew into hundreds of followers as our forecasts were consistently accurate and provided detailed information that would otherwise not be provided for a specific area such as the Hudson Valley. I also am currently working with Joe D'Aleo, a very well-known meteorologist employed at Weatherbell on a science research project studying the effects of the AMO, PDO, NAO, and AO on global climate. I wish to thank you for visiting our site and please know we welcome any and all input from our followers to make our site better.