Thursday Evening Weather Update

-
Updated: 0010z/20:10/8:10PM

----------------------------------FORECAST----------------------------------

TONIGHT - Clear, lows getting to mid 50's by daybreak.

FRIDAY - Highs into the mid 70's maybe reaching 80° especially around NYC, Newark.

SATURDAY - Highs in mid 70's, getting cloudy during the night as moisture from our spinning potential STC reaches our area.

SUNDAY - MOTHERS DAY! Fog in and out throughout the day, probably will not burn out of it much, if we do it will be in afternoon, definitely out by Monday morning. Highs near 80°.

--------------------------FORECAST DISCUSSION------------------------

ALLL EYES are on the tropics! Well not really "tropics" but the wacky system developing down north of the Bahamas, Cutoff low will continue spinning and probably develop into a Sub Tropical Cyclone at the very least, making landfall just south of the Outer Banks...Biggest threats at this point is heavy rainfall, but winds 35-40kts sustained gusts up to 50kts could occur, if it strengthens. We shall see over the next 24-48 hours if it develops...need those t-storms and convection to fully wrap the center of low pressure. See picture below from NNVL.

Upper level Ridge will move in from the west tomorrow and a somewhat easterly flow will allow for some sea breezes to develop and fog to roll in Friday night for a bit, but not much as dew points will be low and SST cold...mainly on the coast.

Getting into the longer period, Ridging will stick around for much of the next week, ALTHOUGH, looking like moisture and a tad bit of NRG from the spinning low to the south could reach us giving us fog and maybe some rain showers Saturday night into Sunday. nothing big, but the fog could stick around as a SE/S flow develops from the system to the south of us as it looks like now. Next system could come through Monday into Tuesday, we will wait and see how that works out...might miss us by a tad, but we shall see.

We will remain dry for much of the rest of the month - although hints at a bigger storm for end of the 10 day period are happening.

MJO still looking like it wants to go to the cooler phases 7/8 in the next 10 days or so, certainly after next week getting into the end of May and into the beginning of June. Also seeing at a return of warmth come June, then a cool down towards the end of June to beginning of July, warming back up again then cool....This however will change as the ENSO situation develops. Just some early thoughts.

Have a great night!