Sunday Evening Weather Update

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Updated: 2345z/19:45/07:45PM

FORECAST

TONIGHT - Lows in the low 30's, mostly clear maybe a few clouds.

MONDAY - A Bit warmer, highs in the high 40's to maybe 50°, mostly cloudy.

TUESDAY - A system will be passing to the north, however it will be weak so a few rain showers in the morning, otherwise partly sunny and highs in the mid to high 40's.

WEDNESDAY - A cold front will have passed through, associated with the Tuesday system and Arctic High pressure will settle over, highs in the high 30's.

FORECAST DISCUSSION

Very active pattern coming up guys, and going to get a bit technical here if you do not mind. The overall climate is likely in a transition period right now between warm and cold phases of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. In addition to this we have a return of the El Nino, but a Modoki El Nino. On top of all this we have the natural tumultuous period of transitioning from Winter to spring, which is huge in itself. All of this combined, and more is adding to the overall pattern that we have been experiencing.

As some of you might know, this winter we have had above average SST's in the North Atlantic, especially off the east coast. This is characteristic of the AMO beginning its switch to its cold (-) phase, which will take many years to fully finish. This has inhibited the NAO to go negative, which is what helps us get Greenland blocking, and bigger storms here on the East Coast. NOW, as we know - that did not help much this year, as we got many big storms with a +NAO. The driver behind this is above average temperatures in the Pacific, especially in the Gulf of Alaska and off of Baja. This has helped keep ridges pumping it up in the west, which then helps drive the Jet stream south over us, letting cold air in, which is what contributed to one of our coldest winters. This is also why the western half of the Country has been rather warm/mild and dry, especially in terms of snow storms. THIS IS NOT GLOBAL WARMING THOUGH! ITS A NATURAL PHENOMENON!.

What we are seeing now is more of the specific pattern that was present in February, although not as cold. So, yes it will be well below average temperatures for this time, but that means 30's to 40's, not 0's to 10's.

The models are specifically showing 2-4 threats for us over the next 2-3 weeks, that could very well be snow, or rain or both. The first one would be this week, Friday into Saturday if it materializes. We will continue watching the models and let you know!

Have a great night guys!