Thursday Evening Weather Update - SPRING OUTLOOK SPECIAL

-
Updated: 0150z/21:50/09:50PM 

--------------------------2015 SPRING OUTLOOK------------------

Disclaimer: This is Dillon and my first time doing an outlook like this. So bear with us if it is not perfect. Read for the details though and enjoy it smile emoticon

As we get into the heart of spring, and continue on towards summer, please keep in mind that we just went through the second coldest, and one of the snowiest winters on record. These type of sever long term events like to stay for a while, and generally take a long time to leave.

One of the big misconceptions in this world I feel of the general public is that the weather consists of just these storms that move in and out. And that the fronts associated with them govern the temperatures and weather in between... Sadly...this is not the case. There are MILLIONS of other things governing our atmosphere and everyday sensible weather. The biggest thing(s) are the oceans and Sun.

The oceans go through cycles, warm and cold, and their teleconnections and oscillations also go through cycles. Many of these cycles are over 30 years long..some over 60 years. The sun's cycles can sometimes be over 200 years!

Within these big cycles we have smaller cycles, like El Nino's and La Nina's which last typically on average 18 months..sometimes longer and sometimes shorter. Within even that we have the MJO (Madden Julian Oscillation) which is a shorter seasonal variation in the pacific tropics around the dateline that has an effect on our sensible weather, it usually lasts 30-60 days sometimes up to 90 days.

Why am I telling you all of this? It does not help you with knowing the Spring forecast....But, Dillon and I feel it is important, because it helps you understand that there is so much going into every rain drop that falls and every hour of sunshine, fog, snow, etc. that you see. We as humans do not get to see many of these larger pattern shifts, because they are simply too long. Maybe we see 2 or 3 Oscillation switches, 1 major ocean pattern shift, if we are lucky. Because of this, we believe what we see. Unfortunately in the last 30 years we have been in, for the most part the warm cycles of these patterns. This has led the world to believe that the earth will warm an obscene amount in the next 50 years, and that many other things to ruin our planet will happen. Maybe this is true for pollution. Maybe this is true to a certain extent. For the simple and short answer though, for the earth to warm as much as they say it will, the physics of our atmosphere would have to change. We do not see that happening at all anytime soon. So...enough digressing, lets get on to the actual spring forecast.

At the moment we are in a weak/modoki El Nino. Now, there are hints that this could become a stronger El Nino as the year progresses, but for now we will not worry about this. Whats important is that for our spring, the El Nino will not "Directly" affect us. Instead, we will likely see above normal precipitation and temperatures along the Gulf Coast. The pattern during the winter, which was largely governed by warm water off the West coast, Baha and Gulf of Alaska. This set up a -EPO and +PNA for much of the winter, and pumped up a Ridge in the West (Hence the warm and dry weather in the west) and a Trough in the east. This allowed record breaking cold to penetrate deep into the eastern portions of the country, and warm air to filtrate through the west. 

What we will begin to see this spring is the Trough that has been prominent in the East to retrograde itself west, and and the ridge in the West to retrograde East. This is also due to the normal changing position of the Jet to its normal Late spring summer position.

That being said, the MJO forecast is not looking promising for SUSTAINED warmth of above average temperatures. What we see is it moving into regions 1,2,3. If you see the pictures, you will see what I mean. The Euro is a bit more bullish then the GFS, but essentially what is happening is the models wanna go back and forth between warm and cold periods...a few days warm a few days cold, dropping troughs every so often and letting High pressure build blocking the jet and pushing Arctic Air south. Based on this assumption of it continuing through April and into the better part of May and maybe beginning of June.

--------

Based on this, our temperatures will look like:

-For the rest of April and likely into May, if not beginning of June, temperatures sticking at or BELOW average (not much) with periodic spikes of above average temperatures (again, not MUCH). Basically back and forth between warm above average temps and late season cold shots.

---------

Precipitation wise this is what we are thinking:

- We should stay fairly dry, not overly wet but not bone dry. Climate maps and models suggesting on average 0 to -1.5" below average for the running monthly mean. That being said, the sensible weather models are hinting at some impressive precipitation amounts over the next 10 even 20 days..its all relative, and frankly overall it should stay around average once everything sorts itself out. As we get into the summer, June/July things will start to get wetter We think, and most likely we will end up with a summer like last year...but that is for the summer outlook wink emoticon

--------
Ok, I think this is about as detailed as you guys want us to get for now....dont wanna bore you to death! If you have any questions please Private m

essage us, email us...etc. Thanks!

Sunday Midday Weather Update - Yucky weather this afternoon

-
Updated: 1700z/13:00/01:00PM

----------------------------------FORECAST----------------------------------

TODAY - Stationary front will set up just to the NORTH of NYC bringing some higher elevation snow to the Catskills, Adirondacks and maybe a dusting of snow at the NY/CT/MA border. Areas NYC and north not getting snow expect a very cold light rain/showers to develop early afternoon around 2PM on and off throughout the evening and into the night clearing out around midnight. South of NYC should be nice, partly cloudy with gusty winds. Highs in the mid 50's to 60's White Plains to NYC, 60's and maybe 70's south of NYC, 40's to mid 30's North and West of NYC. Warmer along the coasts.

MONDAY - Highs in the mid 50's to maybe 60's, especially NYC and SW. Partly Sunny/Cloudy on and off throughout the day. 

TUESDAY - Next storm comes in the afternoon/evening... Mostly rain for the area maybe some snow to the North...more on this tomorrow night. Highs mid 40's to 50's and upper 30's to the North and NW. 

WEDNESDAY - Another wave comes through, much colder as a cold front will have passed...guys I have a feeling its gonna be a lot more wintry then many think, but for now lets keep the majority of the snow north of the CT/MA border...but watching this carefully. Highs in mid 40's to upper 30's.

--------------------------FORECAST DISCUSSION------------------------

Slowly but surely we are getting to spring guys! Below I have a nice graphic of the average Jet positions during winter and summer...right now the jet is slowly moving from its winter position to its spring/summer position...once we get it up there, and its looking like after April 10th - 13th we start getting in that position and will start feeling real spring like. Our Spring outlook will be coming out in the next few day(s) so you can see all the details from that.

TODAY A stationary front will set up just to the north of NYC and with it will come a wave of low pressure and moisture slug. NOW, right now this front looks to be setting up north enough of NYC that for the most part NYC and south should have a pretty good day. Long Island - you may get some steadier rain this evening, but most of the precip should stay to the north. Mountains, higher elevations could see a coating to an inch of snow...should not stick much though. Westchester folks, gonna be a dicey situation and tricky, but weather should go downhill around 2pm. 

IN the meantime...very wintry week coming up for the NE, mostly north of I84 and CT/MA border, HOWEVER there could be some surprises. A couple storms will accompany this, rain and snow for those well to the north. 

SEVERE weather outbreak this week as well in the Midwest, Kansas, Oklahoma, Missouri, Illinois and Arkansas/Kentucky, probably the most severe so far this season as we will combine the strong jet, a very warm wet northerly flow off the Gulf and cold air from the north...making a very volatile situation.


OK that's it for now, enjoy the rest of your vacation!

Thursday Night Weather Update - Storm after storm coming! Snow? Noppe!

-
Updated: 0220z/22:20/10:19PM

-----------------------------------FORECAST---------------------------------

TONIGHT - Some passing rain showers will spread light rain over the area, otherwise wind getting a bit windier lows in the high 40's maybe into low 50's.

FRIDAY - WARM! Folks I do think we got a GOOD run at 65-70°!!! Now...beggars cannot be choosers, so we do have a storm coming, Nice big storm! Rain showers on and off throughout the day, becoming more steady during the night Friday. Snow with this system will stay WAY to the north near Canadian Border.

SATURDAY - One storm leaves, another comes! Partly cloudy, windy as our fairly large Friday storm moves out...clouds moving in and out. Highs in mid 40's.

SUNDAY - ANOTHER system comes through, Stationary front (tad anafrontal) setup right over NYC or just to the north, where this sets up will be key...whoever is north of it gets bad weather, south good...etc you know the drill. More on this Friday. Highs mid 40's maybe into 50's.

--------------------------FORECAST DISCUSSION------------------------

Many many storms are coming! But is winter over? I am saying - if you live South of Boston - Albany line, for the most part our winter is over...maybe some snow will fall but most likely nothing accumulating anymore until next season! Does that mean spring is here? NO! The Jet is beginning its transition to its normal Spring-Summer position, but we still have plenty of chances for well below average temperatures. NOW, when will the jet change? Still looking at a target period of April 10-13 and after is when we will start looking spring-like.

In the meantime, A very powerful storm will pass over the area tomorrow afternoon/night, which if it was 100 miles more south and with arctic air would be a massive blizzard....unfortunately not the case. SO, very windy as this is a strong and tightly packed system tomorrow and into Saturday night.

Saturday is the day between systems as we get ready for another system to set up over us...this one will be a stationary front that will set up somewhere in the immediate area around NYC...somewhat Anafrontal as the precipitation will be behind the front. Whoever stays south of that front will get nice weather - north of it bad weather. Its a battle of Ossining getting rain and (maybe) some sleet and Irvington getting blustery cloudy skies.

Temperatures for the next few weeks will roller coaster between 30's - 40's and 50-60's even 70° as the jet transitions. Just like rollercoaster November, we now get Rollercoaster April as seasons change.

****WINTER RECAP coming This WEEKEND! and SPRING OUTLOOK coming ALSO this weekend***

HAVE A GREAT NIGHT GUYS!

Monday Night Weather Update

*Sorry for lack of posts, Dillon and I have been extremely busy with research work*

-Updated: 0145z/21:45/09:45PM

----------------------------------FORECAST----------------------------------

TONIGHT - Lows near 20°, partly cloudy, clearing though.

TUESDAY - Mix of sunshine and clouds highs in the high 30's to maybe 40°.

WEDNESDAY - Some afternoon showers possible as a warm front passes through. Highs in the low to mid 40's.

THURSDAY - Maybe some spotty showers in the morning, otherwise highs in the mid to high 40's

FRIDAY - Cold front passes through in the morning bringing a chance of some showers maybe some snow Friday night we shall see, highs in the high 40's to maybe 50's...could get warmer we shall see.

--------------------------FORECAST DISCUSSION------------------------

Pretty transient weather over the next couple days, a couple warm and cold fronts over the next couple days will bring chances for rain showers and maybe some snow showers, or snow especially towards the end of the week.

Still looking at the possibility of more snow in the next 2 weeks. Specifically we are watching the **possible** development of a big storm that has been going on and off the models over the past several days, we shall see what goes on with that.

Longer range, still looking at below average temperatures for the next several weeks before flipping as the jet basically switches and the low pressure in the east degrades and shifts west bringing the cold to the west and building a ridge over the east bringing more warmth to our area. This will allow temperatures to move back to "normal" average temperatures. I do not think we will be seeing "above" average temps for some time.

Winter Recap Post coming on Monday of next week!

Ciao for now guys!

Thursday Evening Weather Update SPECIAL on the Winter Storm

-
Updated: 0100z/21:00/09:00PM

----------------------------------FORECAST----------------------------------

TONIGHT - Clear but getting cloudy as the night progresses on, temperatures in the low to mid 20's.

FRIDAY - Cloudy with snow arriving midday, might have some stickage issues at first but ground temps and air temps (aloft as well) will be good to support snow. Snow may be heavy at times especially between 4-6pm. This will be a heavy, wet snow guys - none of that fluffy snow we have been getting! Snow continuing into the nighttime, temperatures in the low to mid 30's.

FRIDAY NIGHT - Snow continuing and tapering off between 10pm and midnight for most east of NYC. Temps in the low 20's.

SATURDAY - Temperatures in the low to mid 40's, cloudy in the morning changing to sunny.

-------------------------FORECAST DISCUSSION-------------------------

A small area of low pressure will continue to deepen and move North/NE throughout the night, spreading rain before changing over to snow as it reaches Southern PA and the mountains of West Virginia, and overspreading snow to our area (East of NYC) By midday.

The models, especially the GFS have been pretty consistent on their ideas with this storm for several runs, and Dillon and I feel confident in our forecast. That being said, as always we will be nowcasting as the storm arrives. A key factor during this storm will be the March sun, and temperatures. Tomorrow is the Vernal Equinox, and with that comes equal day and night. While temperatures will be at or below freezing for us, for the most part, the high angle of the sun and the strength of the incoming solation will try to melt the snow. This will play the biggest part during the daytime, however, with the storm arriving a bit later now with the heaviest precipitation (Heaviest precip will be between 4-6PM LIKELY, THIS CAN CHANGE), the sun will be setting and the strength lessened - a bit. Not to say it will be negligible.

To overcome the high sun angle and strength, strong snowfall rates for a good amount of time would be required, as this would promote evaporational and dynamic cooling within the air column to keep the temperatures even cooler, and lessen the suns affect.

That being said, as we look at the soundings and cross sections during the storm, temperatures look very good to support snow, especially big fat flakes which could help accumulate faster.

As the storm happens, Dillon will monitor the Radar and provide small updates (I will be out of town, will try to update if possible) throughout the day.

Also, important to note that even though the snow will be falling by midday, there may be sticking issues causing it not to stick immediately. This should not be a huge problem, especially if we can get big snowfall rates.

Our first call snow map still applies, and is posted below.

Sunday Evening Weather Update

-
Updated: 2345z/19:45/07:45PM

FORECAST

TONIGHT - Lows in the low 30's, mostly clear maybe a few clouds.

MONDAY - A Bit warmer, highs in the high 40's to maybe 50°, mostly cloudy.

TUESDAY - A system will be passing to the north, however it will be weak so a few rain showers in the morning, otherwise partly sunny and highs in the mid to high 40's.

WEDNESDAY - A cold front will have passed through, associated with the Tuesday system and Arctic High pressure will settle over, highs in the high 30's.

FORECAST DISCUSSION

Very active pattern coming up guys, and going to get a bit technical here if you do not mind. The overall climate is likely in a transition period right now between warm and cold phases of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. In addition to this we have a return of the El Nino, but a Modoki El Nino. On top of all this we have the natural tumultuous period of transitioning from Winter to spring, which is huge in itself. All of this combined, and more is adding to the overall pattern that we have been experiencing.

As some of you might know, this winter we have had above average SST's in the North Atlantic, especially off the east coast. This is characteristic of the AMO beginning its switch to its cold (-) phase, which will take many years to fully finish. This has inhibited the NAO to go negative, which is what helps us get Greenland blocking, and bigger storms here on the East Coast. NOW, as we know - that did not help much this year, as we got many big storms with a +NAO. The driver behind this is above average temperatures in the Pacific, especially in the Gulf of Alaska and off of Baja. This has helped keep ridges pumping it up in the west, which then helps drive the Jet stream south over us, letting cold air in, which is what contributed to one of our coldest winters. This is also why the western half of the Country has been rather warm/mild and dry, especially in terms of snow storms. THIS IS NOT GLOBAL WARMING THOUGH! ITS A NATURAL PHENOMENON!.

What we are seeing now is more of the specific pattern that was present in February, although not as cold. So, yes it will be well below average temperatures for this time, but that means 30's to 40's, not 0's to 10's.

The models are specifically showing 2-4 threats for us over the next 2-3 weeks, that could very well be snow, or rain or both. The first one would be this week, Friday into Saturday if it materializes. We will continue watching the models and let you know!

Have a great night guys!

Wednesday Evening Weather Update - Some big changes coming!

-
Update: 2130z/17:30/05:30PM

FORECAST

TONIGHT - Lows around freezing, a cold front has come through already, however the actual cold air will be delayed until tomorrow.

THURSDAY - Highs in the low to mid 40's, sunny and a bit of a breeze.

FRIDAY - Highs in the low to mid 40's, sunny not as breezy.

SATURDAY - Storm time! Looks like this one will be mainly a soaker, with a bit of snow on the front end possible but little to no accumulation if anything. Still some details to workout, but it will generally be rainy all day long with heavy rain possible. Highs in the low 40's.

FORECAST DISCUSSION

What a nice week we have had!! I bet everybody has appreciated the warmer temps, snow melting and sunny skies! Well...do not get use to it! This was a "false" spring, and the overall pattern is going BACK to our stormy and cold that we experienced for much of the last 3 months. Now, it will not be AS cold..but certainly well below the average temperatures. The "target" period for this pattern will be essentially the 15th through end of March and maybe into early April.

This weekend will feature a nice storm, however, even with colder air being shot in before, it will still be too warm across the board for us to get any real snow out of it, unless you are in Maine and far northern New England - this is a mostly to all rain event.

Getting into next week however, we do see ANOTHER possible storm that could be more snow then rain.

SO...Bottom line is, if you are looking at the point-and-click websites and seeing "End of winter" or "warmer temps coming" - sorry! Not right! Winter still has a hold on us!!!!

Have a great day! and as always, I will quote the Great Joe Bastardi, "Enjoy the weather, its the only weather you got!"

7 P.M. Sunday Evening Storm/Weather Update

We thought we should try a different way of giving updates on the page...Please, please tell us if you like this way or the other way better. Your comments are key, as we do this for all of you!

FORECAST

TONIGHT - Snow, heavy at times will continue throughout the night, total accumulations between 3-6" with locally 4-8" very possible depending on where those bands set up over us. Temperatures will stay steady in high teens to low low 20's. Snow will taper off and end between 2-4am, definitely by 5am for almost all west of Hartford.

MONDAY - Clouds and possibly a few stray snow showers early will give way to mostly sunny skies behind the storm, highs in the low 30's. Winds will be a bit frisky, WNW @ 15-20mph gusts to 25mph maybe.

MONDAY NIGHT - Clear, lows in the low teens.

TUESDAY - Clear turning cloudy quickly, with likely light snow developing in the evening and maybe a big thump of front end snow as our next storm approaches...still some things to work out with the storm so more updates later on this. Highs near freezing.

WEDNESDAY - Ice/sleet probably over to all rain, again more details to workout.

FORECAST DISCUSSION

Our current storm will continue to trudge northeast tonight, the precipitation shield will eventually turn to the NE/ESE tonight. Most of the snow will end around NYC between 2-4am, definitely by 5am. Thumping will continue and maybe a bit of ice as the thermal gradient comes northward - what is happening is we get this frontal wedging, and 40-50 mph winds in the lower jet stream from the South with warm air slamming into the cold arctic air - this creates a TON of lift and perfect dynamics for the snow as the cold air is forcing that warm air straight up where it can condense and fall as snow. SO, storm totals still on key with our map from last night. a general 3-6/4-8" for most N/NE of NYC.

WE get a ONE DAY break, tomorrow before our next storm roles in. This is a difficult storm, and actually a bit of 2 storms in one. First a lake cutter will ride the St. Lawrence river, and likely give us a good front end thump of snow Tuesday night before changing over to ice/sleet then rain for Wednesday. A lull in the precip as the LC moves out..BUT we have an interesting development as the models are seeing an LP form along an ana front just to the SW of us..NOW, as this LP moves towards us, remember we will have had a cold front come through Wednesday night with the Lake Cutter - this looks to be SNOW as it comes through, and COULD dump a good amount of snow. Just to give an idea, the GFS has 16" for us in the next 5 days...9" if you take off whats falling now. The European has 13" for the same period, 8" if you take off today's snow. The Canadian has 3", the NAM has 8"...so all somewhat similar.

If there is one word to describe this week it is: WILD.

Anyway, please let us know how you like this new format, and enjoy the weather, its the only weather you got! (As Joe Bastardi always says!)

********8:00PM UPDATE WEDNESDAY**********

Evening guys!!! Ok....weather changing ever day for us here in terms of whats on the models - so lets see whats going on!

- Clipper tomorrow will just be a glorified Arctic Cold front likely, as the low will pass to far to the North and it will be too dry. SO, as of now chance of snow showers and some light snow from midday through the evening and into the night possible. IF ANY accumulation, only a coating to an inch - but WILL likely be nothing big.

- Storm for the weekend still on the models, what has to be kept in mind is that it will be BRUTALLY COLD during that storm. SO, even if we only get the 3-5" that the models are saying - THAT COULD EASILY BE 6-12"+ WITH HIGHER SNOW RATIOS THAT COULD VERY WELL BE PRESENT. HOWEVER, AND A BIG HOWEVER, I am not making a forecast here for this storm as I am seeing some things on the models that are making me believe it will be a bit different - just keep in mind it could very well be a big bad storm.

- ANOTHER storm showing up on the models for Tuesday of next week...still early to really tell whats going on, but something is there.

- Another possible system after that later in the week still

***********************

BRUTALLY cold temps coming Thursday and into the weekend AND BEYOND!! SERIOUS GUYS! COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON!

***********************

TONIGHT - Clear lows in the low to mid teens.

THURSDAY - Highs around freezing, cloudy with snow showers possible and maybe some light snow, a coating to an inch if anything. Winds will be gusty as the Arctic front slams through in the afternoon. BRUTAL COLD AT NIGHT, LOWS IN THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS WIND CHILL IN THE NEGATIVES.

FRIDAY - Highs barely making it to the mid teens, windchill will be low too. Mostly sunny.

***********************

HAVE A GREAT NIGHT FOLKS!

**************9:00PM UPDATE TUESDAY NIGHT*************

SO...We got several events coming up! First one for Thursday, Likely will form too far to the East for anybody to get anything of big significance. Right now likely 1-3" Thursday afternoon through Friday Morning. WE WILL Keep you posted if this changes. First snow map tomorrow night for the event.

Second event for the weekend - still far out so nothing definite, but the models are definitely showing something forming that COULD be QUITE BIG if it forms right. Picture below showing it.

Third event would be Early to middle of Next week during our vacation. Still to early to tell anything more with confidence.

Fourth event would be later in the week after the third event. Again still early to say ANYTHING with confidence - for all we know it could not even happen.

***********************
EXTREME, AND I DO MEAN EXTREME COLD COMING FOLKS...Just to give you an idea - the models depicting temperature ANOMOLIES (So +/- of average) are saying on average the next 16 days and if not more will be -3 to -16° BELOW average!!! OR MORE!!

FIRST SHOT OF THE COLDEST AIR will be Thursday through the weekend. Folks, Lows in the negatives are possible and Highs in the single digits to low teens....get ready for the cold!!!

************************
TONIGHT - Cold and clear Highs in the low to mid teens, maybe 20° in NYC progressively colder as you get up to Boston and N/NW of NYC.

WEDNESDAY - Colder then today, Highs in the High 20's maybe low 30's, sunny.

THURSDAY - Mostly cloudy with light snow developing in the afternoon, Highs probably right below freezing. Snow will continue on and off through the night, most likely 1-3" with localized 2-4" possible.

FRIDAY - Maybe some light snow in the morning, then clearing out, COLLLDDD first SHOT of BRUTAL COLD AIR THURSDAY NIGHT! Highs BARELY REACHING 20° Friday. A Brisk wind will keep the windchills very low was well!!!

*************************

Have a great night guys!!

**********8PM Update Monday**********

Total snow for today was 2.9" - on the LOW side of our 2-5" Forecast, but still within that. Boston on the other hand, and areas around there - THEY are the winners. Approaching 6-7'+ of snow on the ground up there!!

*********************************

Rest of the night should start to clear out a bit, any light snow/sleet/ice will end by midnight. Temperatures will go down in the Highs teens/low 20's.

TOMORROW - Clouds will continue to clear out, Highs around freezing, WATCH for ice that may have formed overnight.

WEDNESDAY - Mostly Sunny, Highs in the High 20's to very low 30's.

THURSDAY - Next possible storm? Could evolve into a biggie, but for now 2-4" ish of snow late Thursday through Friday morning. Watch this carefully though because we could be in for a big storm.

Next storm after that would be for the weekend, and also could be a BIG one.

INTENSE, BRUTAL and coldest air of the season coming starting Thursday into the weekend. Highs could possibly barely reach the 20's, with lows well below 0°. We shall know specifics later, but seriously cold air coming.

********************************

Have a great night guys!!!

*******7:15PM UPDATE THURSDAY********

Oki Doki, We got ALOT going on over the next week or so.

- Sunday through Tuesday storm is an over runner, meaning (And THANK you to the teacher who taught Dillon and me all this!) We have a a S/SW flow in the Jet, and cA (Continental Arctic) airmass Flowing East. This is the overrunning part as you get Cold air at the lower altitudes and warm air on top in the Upper Altitudes. We get Precip then, even though this is not a warm front. SO...THIS IS HOW OUR STORM WILL FORM ON SUNDAY-TUESDAY! Problem is, wherever that Cold Boundary sets up (N/S) will determine where the snows are. RIGHT now, it is setting up more or less just to the south/over NYC...meaning another huge battle between warm and cold, snow/ice/rain. We shall see where this goes, but I have a big hunch that the boundary will set up farther to the south and give us some more snow. A difference of 50-100, EVEN 25-50 MILES could make a HUGE difference for us - like the last storm.

More updates to come. At this point though, we are still getting a good amount of snow, mostly a steady light snow lasting 36 hours or more possibly.

***************************
-BRUTAL, and I mean brutal brutal cold coming this weekend...as you saw today temps dropped 20-30° for some from morning to now. This drop will CONTINUE and we will get DEEP into the negatives tomorrow morning with the windchill. Some places even -20° with windchill.

- COLD lets up a teensy bit, but barely and we go through the weekend still with very very cold temps. PEOPL, MORE COLD AIR on the way after this.

***************************

**************************FORECAST****************************

TONIGHT - Clear, Temperatures continuing to drop to about 4-6° in NYC to Westchester, 0-4° Northern Westchester and Rockland and Southern CT, then negatives as you get further North. Windchills NEGATIVE from -5 to -20° or less.

TOMORROW - COLDDDD in the morning windchill values in the NEGATIVES, warming up to the balmy High teens to VERY VERY low 20's

SATURDAY - Chance of some light snow in the afternoon, probably not much accumulation if any. Highs near 30° and cloudy.

SUNDAY - Light snow showers/snow developing afternoon/evening and continuing through the night, first part of the storm. More on this later. Highs in the mid to high 20's.

MAP SHOWING TEMPS WHEN WE WAKE UP TOMORROW MORNING PEOPLE - FRIGIDDDDD

********MIDDAY SATURDAY UPDATE************

VERY HAPPY TODAY AS I THINK I NAILED THAT FORECAST IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION TYPES AND AMOUNTS, TOTAL SNOWFALL HERE AT MY HOUSE WAS 6.8" IN THE DRIVEWAY NO DRIFTS AWAY FROM TREES... SO RIGHT IN THE 4-8/5-8" THAT I POSTED LAST NIGHT.

NOW...WHATS NEXT!

WELL, TEMPERATURES WILL STAY STEADY IN THE LOW 30'S TODAY, AND AS THE LOW DEEPENS A BIT MORE WE WILL GET ANOTHER LIGHT BOUT OF SNOW/RAIN/SLEET THIS AFTERNOON. - ACCUMULATIONS? PROBABLY LESS THEN AN INCH.

ARCTIC AIR WILL COME IN TOMORROW NIGHT, AND WITH IT A CLIPPER - NOW, THIS CLIPPER RIGHT NOW IS SHOWING UP ON THE MODELS TURNING INTO QUITE A STORM!...IS THIS GOING TO HAPPEN? WELL, 48 HOURS OUT THINGS CAN STILL CHANGE, BUT I AM VERY CONFIDENT WE WILL GET SOME SORT OF SNOW STORM MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

THIS TIME, NO QUESTION ABOUT RAIN/SNOW AS THE STORM WILL HAVE PLENTY OF ARCTIC AIR, AND WILL HAVE DYNAMIC COOLING AS IT DEEPENS.

SHOULD I SAY BLIZZARD? HINT HINT....

ANYWAY MORE DETAILS LATER.

HAVE A GREAT DAY FOLKS AND BE SAFE!

***********QUICK TUESDAY EVENING UPDATE***********

Well quick recap for today, It did not snow AS much as we thought, but it certainly snowed longer. People down just west of Washington DC though really made out with this clipper 4-6"+ IN SOME PLACES!

- ANYWAY, BRUTALLY cold Air coming for the rest of this week, WEDNESDAY - FRIDAY MORNING, I WOULD NOT! NOT! STAY OUTSIDE FOR MORE THEN 10-15 MIN! Cold Winds, snow cover on the ground and the cold air itself will make Windchills down WELL below zero, perhaps -10* or more! Actual TEMPS WITHOUT the Windchill's will be in the single digits quite possibly! SO BE CAREFUL!

- SNOW SQUALLS! YESS! As a cold front rips through the area tomorrow, I am watching a possible Snow Squall that could rip through the area midday - MUST WATCH THIS CLOSELY!, ESPECIALLY FOLKS TO THE N/NE OF US.
- STILL Watching a Clipper for Friday, this time to our North but we may get something!

- Next week is beginning to look VERY VERY interesting as we have 2 possible BIG coastal storms that could develop, one for Monday-Tuesday in our Area and one for Thursday-Friday. Then signs are showing another possible system for the week after as well as Clippers to come in and out of play!

- MILD warmup for Next week, we will get into LOW TO MID 30'S...for a bit, then maybe some signs of cold returning?!

********************FORECAST*******************

TONIGHT - COLLLDD COOLLLLD in the mid teens, colder North and West of NYC. Cloudy skies will clear out a teensy bit!

TOMORROW - COLLDDDD AND GETTING COLDER! Temps in the Mid to high teens will drop to low teens by afternoon as a cold front rips through during morning to mid afternoon! Winds will be up 20mph gusting MAYBE up to 45-50mph. Windchill's down to SINGLE DIGITS WILL NOT BE UNCOMMON! I will update tomorrow but I DO think we will get a good snow shower or Squall as the cold front rips through! Stay tuned!

THURSDAY - ABSOLUTE COLDEST DAY! Morning Windchills WELL BELOW 0*, Daytime Highs only up to SINGLE DIGITS! To the North and West of the City do not be surprised with Temps down into the -20's or below especially up on the mountains. SUNNY, BREEZY STILL!
FRIDAY - Chance of a Clipper late morning, updates on this later! A bit warmer in the 20's.

Monday Evening Update and Discussion - FULL ON STORM MODE GUYS

OK GUYS WE ARE IN FULL ON STORM MODE
A MAJOR NOR'EASTER WILL BE AFFECTING THE AREA FROM LATE TONIGHT UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT, POSSIBLY INTO THURSDAY EARLY MORNING.

Now, for the forecast! GUYS, AGAIN THERE IS A BUST POTENTIAL WITH THIS STORM, THIS FORECAST IS BASED OFF THE LATEST DATA AVAILABLE TO US, SO LOOK OUT FOR UPDATES!

*****FOR THE BULK OF THIS STORM, THE STORM WILL BE BRINGING TO MUCH WARM AIR OFF THE OCEAN TO ALLOW FOR REAL SNOW, HOWEVER, AND THIS IS VERY IMPORTANT
THE AIR IN THE ATMOSPHERE, WILL BE VERY COLD, AND THEREFORE PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS MAY NOT HAVE TIME TO MELT IN THE WARMER AIR NEAR THE SURFACE, GIVING THE HUGE POTENTIAL FOR ICE, SLEET, AND MAYBE SNOW - SO WATCH OUT, ESPECIALLY DEPENDING ON WHEN THE PRECIP GETS HERE TONIGHT!

TONIGHT - Rain Developing LATE, AND VERY LIKELY MIXING WITH ICE...Lows in the low 30's, a Northeast wind 10-20mph will bring in that cold air as well. 

TOMORROW (TUESDAY)- ITS SHOW TIME, HEAVY RAIN spreads throughout the morning and into the nighttime as the Center of the storm approaches and MAKES THAT CLASSIC SANDY LIKE HOOKED LEFT TURN INTO THE COAST!!! I WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF WE GET WET, HEAVY FLAKES, SOME ICE AND SLEET mixed in, as the air in the atmosphere will certainly be cold enough for the precip to not have a chance to melt possibly on the way down. Highs in the mid 30's, Winds 20-30mph possibly gusting up and over 40mph from the Northeast-NorthWest.

TUESDAY NIGHT - Rain will continue, start to let up, chance of some snow MIXING in, I do not think there will be much accumulation. Temps in the low to mid 30's.

WEDNESDAY - Rain showers/Steady light rain on and off. What is happening is the Low is going to reform around the center of low pressure and loop/pinwheel back around giving a second round of precip. NOW, it looks like it will get that COLD air more readily, and not the warmer ocean air, so WATCH OUT FOR SNOW MIXING IN. Temps again mid 30's Winds 10-20mph

WEDNESDAY NIGHT - Rain and Snow Showers/sleet/ice maybe. Temps near 30* Winds 10-15mph diminishing.

*****GUYS NEAR THE COAST, EXPECT BEACH EROSION AND GALE FORCE WINDS, FLOODING IS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN LOW LYING AREAS*********

HAVE A GOOD NIGHT FOLKS!

WIND GUST MAPS - GUYS THAT 40-50MPH GUSTS IN OUR AREA!

STORM TRACK

EUROPEAN SNOWFALL OUTPUT - LIKELY TO CHANGE

Welcome to Weather in the Hud with Remy Mermelstein and Dillon Palmieri!

Welcome! Dillon and I have created this blog as another way for you to get our forecasts, discussions, maps and pictures and expand our horizon beyond Facebook. Our posts will be the same as on Facebook, and will include everything that we do on our FB Page. If you are new to us, you can go look at previous and current posts on our Facebook Page which can be found HERE. We will also begin the process of making a formal website soon, so look forward to updates about that. 

In addition to welcoming you to our new blog, I think it is a good idea to provide some background on who we are, and why you should listen to us about your everyday weather, as well as longer term weather and climate.

Remy (Me) - I am 16 and in 10th grade at Irvington High School in Irvington, NY. My love for weather has been around all my life, starting with my absolute obsession with winter and snowstorms since I was a toddler. In addition to weather, I pursue an active life in architecture, interning at a local architects office (Website can be found HERE) and doing many community projects, building, designing and landscaping. I am pursuing a pilots license as well, and my knowledge and love for weather helps greatly when flying. My weather page, Weather or Not in the Rivertowns with Remy Mermelstein has been up for about a year now, and I update it at least every other day or more with the latest in weather. I study weather extensively on my own time, and am extremely active in the forums on many weather sites, my favorite being Weatherbell where the knowledge of some of the worlds greatest forecasters are available to me, as well as the massive community of meteorologists, climatologists and pure hobbyists this world has. Dillon and I are also currently working with Joe D'aleo on Science Research involving correlations and effects between the NAO/AO/AMO/PDO...etc... Everyday brings a new realm of learning to us here at Weather in the Hud, and everyday we learn more. So thank you for joining us here to read our forecasts! And, as always, if you have suggestions, advice about our posts, or the weather and our forecasting PLEASE tell us - we are still students and we recognize that, and want to learn as much as we can. Thank you.

Dillon Palmieri – Hi! I am a sophomore at Irvington High School in New York. Like my colleague Remy, my obsession with meteorology started at a young age when I became fascinated by tornadoes at the age of four. From there, my interest in the field expanded to winter storms, severe weather, and finally grew enough for me to want to create my own weather forecasts. Starting last spring (2014), I began officially doing weather forecasts for the public in the Hudson Valley region with Remy on our Facebook page Weather or Not in the Rivertowns. Our popularity quickly grew into hundreds of followers as our forecasts were consistently accurate and provided detailed information that would otherwise not be provided for a specific area such as the Hudson Valley. I also am currently working with Joe D'Aleo, a very well-known meteorologist employed at Weatherbell on a science research project studying the effects of the AMO, PDO, NAO, and AO on global climate. I wish to thank you for visiting our site and please know we welcome any and all input from our followers to make our site better.

ONCE AGAIN! WELCOME TO WEATHER IN THE HUD WITH REMY MERMELSTEIN AND DILLON PALMIERI WE HOPE YOU ENJOY IT!