Weather in the Hud with Dillon and Remy: Wednesday Evening Winter Storm Update *Biggie! Big Changes!*

Wednesday, March 4, 2015

Wednesday Evening Winter Storm Update Biggie! Big Changes!

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Updated: 0145z/20:45/08:45PM

****BIG Changes in some of the models have no moved the storm track nearly 50 miles NORTH, putting us once again in the zone for heavier snow. To give an example, the GFS went from .44" QPF to .95" QPF with .82" QPF as snow.

Dillon and me have decided however to stay on the bit of a lower end as it is only one model, and saying 4-8" with the VERY TRUE possibility of going up!!...VERY BIG possibility of this folks!

FORECAST

TONIGHT - Rain showers will transition to heavy sleet/snow around 2-3am as the storm approaches. Temperatures will continue to drop into the upper 20's tonight, 2-4" Of snow and sleet expected BEFORE dawn.

THURSDAY - Snow, heavy at times and some sleet mixing in continuing throughout the day an addition 2-4" expected, with a VERY real possibility of going up to 3-5" or more. Highs in the high 20's maybe reaching 30° - GUYS, SNOW ratios will be High, 12-15:1. Snow will taper off and end around 3-4pm and all out by late evening. TOTAL storm accumulations can be seen on the map below.

THURSDAY NIGHT - Rapid Freeze up into Friday as things start to clear up!

FRIDAY - Clear, Sunny - FREEZING Highs in the low 20's.

FORECAST DISCUSSION

So last night the models were all going south - and now back north? YEP! What is happening is the COLD AIR, the Arctic HP is coming in slower then originally thought, not allowing the storm to push south. An ana-frontal type system is now set up and making its way through the Ohio valley, precipitation on the NORTHERN side of the front and Low. This will continue to move East NE towards us and spread rain to sleet to heavy snow by dawn, most likely between 2-3am. A very strong jet streak will also move along, hopefully adding to the NRG and enhancing our snow by providing better dynamics. The Arctic HP will be following close behind.

No matter what, this will really be a Nowcast situation as it is changing a lot on the models. Looking at observations will be key. But I do believe, and so does Dillon, that this WILL be a significant system.

**LOOKING at the LATEST data, MOST of the snow would fall from after RUSH HOUR through early afternoon.****

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About Us

Remy Mermelstein - I am 16 and in 10th grade at Irvington High School in Irvington, NY. My love for weather has been around all my life, starting with my absolute obsession with winter and snowstorms since I was a toddler. In addition to weather, I pursue an active life in architecture, interning at a local architects office (Website can be found HERE) and doing many community projects, building, designing and landscaping. I am pursuing a pilot’s license as well, and my knowledge and love for weather helps greatly when flying. My weather page, Weather or Not in the Rivertowns with Remy Mermelstein has been up for about a year now, and I update it at least every other day or more with the latest in weather. I study weather extensively on my own time, and am extremely active in the forums on many weather sites, my favorite being Weatherbell where the knowledge of some of the world’s greatest forecasters are available to me, as well as the massive community of meteorologists, climatologists and pure hobbyists this world has. Dillon and I are also currently working with Joe D'aleo on Science Research involving correlations and effects between the NAO/AO/AMO/PDO...etc... Every day brings a new realm of learning to us here at Weather in the Hud, and every day we learn more. So thank you for joining us here to read our forecasts! And, as always, if you have suggestions, advice about our posts, or the weather and our forecasting PLEASE tell us - we are still students and we recognize that, and want to learn as much as we can. Thank you.

Dillon Palmieri – Hi! I am a sophomore at Irvington High School in New York. Like my colleague Remy, my obsession with meteorology started at a young age when I became fascinated by tornadoes at the age of four. From there, my interest in the field expanded to winter storms, severe weather, and finally grew enough for me to want to create my own weather forecasts. Starting last spring (2014), I began officially doing weather forecasts for the public in the Hudson Valley region with Remy on our Facebook page Weather or Not in the Rivertowns. Our popularity quickly grew into hundreds of followers as our forecasts were consistently accurate and provided detailed information that would otherwise not be provided for a specific area such as the Hudson Valley. I also am currently working with Joe D'Aleo, a very well-known meteorologist employed at Weatherbell on a science research project studying the effects of the AMO, PDO, NAO, and AO on global climate. I wish to thank you for visiting our site and please know we welcome any and all input from our followers to make our site better.