Wednesday Evening Update - Summer, oh summer

-
Updated: 0120z/21:20/09:20PM

---------------------------------FORECAST-----------------------------------

TONIGHT - Partly Cloudy/clear warmer lows in the mid 60's.

THURSDAY - Muggy and humid as a ESE flow sets up, sunny with clouds in the morning will give way to more clouds and a good chance for some t-storms in the afternoon, some could be strong, gusty winds and heavy bursts of rain. Hottest day of the week, highs in the mid to high 80's, could see 90° in a few spots.

FRIDAY - Warm but a bit drier, not AS humid but still humid, sunny, highs in the low to mid 80's.

*Tell ya one thing, the AC better be working tomorrow and Friday at school :)*

SATURDAY - T-storms return especially in the afternoon likely, as a low passes to the north and a cold front is dragged along with it, otherwise partly sunny/partly cloudy highs in the low to mid 80's.

-------------------------FORECAST DISCUSSION-------------------------

OKI DOKI! Enjoy today? Was not too hot or cold, nice and breezy smile emoticonperfect weather. Well do not get use to it!

High pressure will move offshore, and Bermuda High will strengthen a bit bringing a ESE/SSW flow and humid, warm air into the region especially getting into NYC-Jersey and South...Highs in the HIGH 80'S into the 90's south west of NYC, mid to high 80's with maybe a few 90's N/NW of NYC...coastal areas a bit cooler.

Tomorrow as a cold front slowly drags along and some disturbances ride along it watch out for scattered showers and t-storms especially in the evening after all the heating from the day, convection and instability will increase through the day. Plenty of water in the air, +1.5" so watch for heavy rain.

Cold front will bring in cooler and drier air for Friday into the weekend, along with High pressure building over us, not as muggy...BUT, LP moving through the N. Great Lakes and into Northern NY will drag a cold front with it, as well as a warm front ahead of it will increase the convection throughout the day and set up instability for a possibility of some strong t-storms and gusty winds into the evening. As that leaves the area comes with it HP and cooler air and then the cycle continues again...t-storms, warm air, cold air, etc. You know the drill!

Now A quick little El Nino Update! It might be easier for those reading this to view it on the blog page as the pictures will be lined up with the actual words...ANYWAY (Oh and sorry bout the pic quality JAMSTEC has to work on their maps)

First picture shows the predicted temperature anomalies from JAMSTEC, who is very reliable, for June-July-August. NOT as cool as last year, but still you can see it is not much ABOVE AVERAGE (unless you count +.5°C a lot). You can see Texas and much of the mid portion of the country below normal, following the El Nino. The important thing here is to watch what happens as the year goes on....carefully.

SECOND picture showing same thing, predicted temp anomalies but for September - October - November. Cold has expanded east more, and at the same time if you look at the El Nino graphs you can see it has reached its peak here and is declining and returning to a more modoki signature...same as last year 

wink emoticon

JAMSTEC SON Temp ANOMALIES

THIRD PIC showing Dec-Jan-Feb anomalies...WOW, almost ALL of the country WELL below average temps!!!! What does the El Nino Modoki index say? It gets stronger at the same time the temps get lower! HINT HINT smile emoticon

So, alot of models and a lot of people are saying there will be a massive El Nino...THIS IS TRUE (ISH) The models have been ALL over the place with the intensity...one thing is for sure, it will not be more then +2.5, most likely it will end up between 1.5-2 as the current trends are going...what is interesting though is that while the intensity forecasts have been changing, it has been more or less consistent of when it ends and what state it goes into after ending - Modoki...so if that gives any indication of what next winter will be like, especially since we had the same setup last winter....speaking of winter, I hear the snowpiles up in Boston are still going strong? Peter is this true? Lucky people ;)

There ya go! Latest update is done smile emoticon Have a nice night folks!

Wednesday Evening Weather Update - Yucky weather Will end soon!

-
Updated: 2320z/19:20/7:20PM

----------------------------------FORECAST----------------------------------

TONIGHT - A few passing showers is possible around NYC and Northern Suburbs tonight, while a wave of low pressure moves to the north and brings sleet wet flakes on the CT/MA border and heavier snow North and Northeast in Interior Northern New England. Temps in the mid 30's to high 20's in Maine.

THURSDAY - Cloudy, maybe a few rain showers on and off throughout the afternoon. Highs in the mid 40's.

FRIDAY - Partly to mostly cloudy with a chance of scattered thunderstorms in the morning and afternoon, very good chance of getting well into the 60's on this day, 60-65° seems very plausible and maybe even close to 70°.

SATURDAY - Sunny with clouds moving in and out...so lets say partly to mostly cloudy? Highs in mid 40's to maybe 50°.

-------------------------FORECAST DISCUSSION-------------------------

Highlight of the day...SEVERE WEATHER! Ya not here, but man do we have some interesting stuff going on out in the Plains. What we got is a stalled out frontal Boundary going right across the country from Colorado to Ohio to the Carolina's and to us. You can see it in the pictures I have below. This stalled out boundary also happens to be right smack on the edge of the Pacific jet, and it started ushering in waves of low pressure and NRG and it just keeps on giving wink emoticon. So we get a frontal boundary, a jet giving tons of moisture off the Pacific, warm gulf air being sucked up north, Cold air to the North of the Front...recipe for disaster!

So today we got the nice frontal boundary out west draping through ESE Kansas, west Oklahoma, western Texas and into Missouri. Along with it we have the dry-line located right to its west. Advantage today is that there is little warm air aloft along the dry-line, and Lapse rates, CAPE, wind shear among other items are inline and good for spawning severe thunder storms and tornado's. We can see several areas in SE Kansas, Missouri, even a bit in Kentucky where we have supercells forming. Lets see if we can get a tornado outta one. One thing that was noted is that with little convection over last night and today, the actual frontal boundary lifted north a tad. So, NCEP and other sites have changed their ideas a bit north as well with it. Main show starts this evening and into the nighttime (Late afternoon for them in the plains) as the main bulk of NRG comes in behind the initial upper level disturbance. If winds back off and stay back as the Upper low deepens this afternoon, then thats when we start really seeing the tornado's form. But one step at a time.

NOW, for us here in the NE...the jet will continue to bring in waves of low pressure until Friday night as it all moves out and the HP to our north begins to back off and let the jet resume to its normal moving position. Things should really start to warm up next week, looking like multiple days into the 60's and maybe 70's...do we even see an 80° day late next week? Could be!

CIAO for now!

Sunday Midday Weather Update - Yucky weather this afternoon

-
Updated: 1700z/13:00/01:00PM

----------------------------------FORECAST----------------------------------

TODAY - Stationary front will set up just to the NORTH of NYC bringing some higher elevation snow to the Catskills, Adirondacks and maybe a dusting of snow at the NY/CT/MA border. Areas NYC and north not getting snow expect a very cold light rain/showers to develop early afternoon around 2PM on and off throughout the evening and into the night clearing out around midnight. South of NYC should be nice, partly cloudy with gusty winds. Highs in the mid 50's to 60's White Plains to NYC, 60's and maybe 70's south of NYC, 40's to mid 30's North and West of NYC. Warmer along the coasts.

MONDAY - Highs in the mid 50's to maybe 60's, especially NYC and SW. Partly Sunny/Cloudy on and off throughout the day. 

TUESDAY - Next storm comes in the afternoon/evening... Mostly rain for the area maybe some snow to the North...more on this tomorrow night. Highs mid 40's to 50's and upper 30's to the North and NW. 

WEDNESDAY - Another wave comes through, much colder as a cold front will have passed...guys I have a feeling its gonna be a lot more wintry then many think, but for now lets keep the majority of the snow north of the CT/MA border...but watching this carefully. Highs in mid 40's to upper 30's.

--------------------------FORECAST DISCUSSION------------------------

Slowly but surely we are getting to spring guys! Below I have a nice graphic of the average Jet positions during winter and summer...right now the jet is slowly moving from its winter position to its spring/summer position...once we get it up there, and its looking like after April 10th - 13th we start getting in that position and will start feeling real spring like. Our Spring outlook will be coming out in the next few day(s) so you can see all the details from that.

TODAY A stationary front will set up just to the north of NYC and with it will come a wave of low pressure and moisture slug. NOW, right now this front looks to be setting up north enough of NYC that for the most part NYC and south should have a pretty good day. Long Island - you may get some steadier rain this evening, but most of the precip should stay to the north. Mountains, higher elevations could see a coating to an inch of snow...should not stick much though. Westchester folks, gonna be a dicey situation and tricky, but weather should go downhill around 2pm. 

IN the meantime...very wintry week coming up for the NE, mostly north of I84 and CT/MA border, HOWEVER there could be some surprises. A couple storms will accompany this, rain and snow for those well to the north. 

SEVERE weather outbreak this week as well in the Midwest, Kansas, Oklahoma, Missouri, Illinois and Arkansas/Kentucky, probably the most severe so far this season as we will combine the strong jet, a very warm wet northerly flow off the Gulf and cold air from the north...making a very volatile situation.


OK that's it for now, enjoy the rest of your vacation!

Thursday Night Weather Update - Storm after storm coming! Snow? Noppe!

-
Updated: 0220z/22:20/10:19PM

-----------------------------------FORECAST---------------------------------

TONIGHT - Some passing rain showers will spread light rain over the area, otherwise wind getting a bit windier lows in the high 40's maybe into low 50's.

FRIDAY - WARM! Folks I do think we got a GOOD run at 65-70°!!! Now...beggars cannot be choosers, so we do have a storm coming, Nice big storm! Rain showers on and off throughout the day, becoming more steady during the night Friday. Snow with this system will stay WAY to the north near Canadian Border.

SATURDAY - One storm leaves, another comes! Partly cloudy, windy as our fairly large Friday storm moves out...clouds moving in and out. Highs in mid 40's.

SUNDAY - ANOTHER system comes through, Stationary front (tad anafrontal) setup right over NYC or just to the north, where this sets up will be key...whoever is north of it gets bad weather, south good...etc you know the drill. More on this Friday. Highs mid 40's maybe into 50's.

--------------------------FORECAST DISCUSSION------------------------

Many many storms are coming! But is winter over? I am saying - if you live South of Boston - Albany line, for the most part our winter is over...maybe some snow will fall but most likely nothing accumulating anymore until next season! Does that mean spring is here? NO! The Jet is beginning its transition to its normal Spring-Summer position, but we still have plenty of chances for well below average temperatures. NOW, when will the jet change? Still looking at a target period of April 10-13 and after is when we will start looking spring-like.

In the meantime, A very powerful storm will pass over the area tomorrow afternoon/night, which if it was 100 miles more south and with arctic air would be a massive blizzard....unfortunately not the case. SO, very windy as this is a strong and tightly packed system tomorrow and into Saturday night.

Saturday is the day between systems as we get ready for another system to set up over us...this one will be a stationary front that will set up somewhere in the immediate area around NYC...somewhat Anafrontal as the precipitation will be behind the front. Whoever stays south of that front will get nice weather - north of it bad weather. Its a battle of Ossining getting rain and (maybe) some sleet and Irvington getting blustery cloudy skies.

Temperatures for the next few weeks will roller coaster between 30's - 40's and 50-60's even 70° as the jet transitions. Just like rollercoaster November, we now get Rollercoaster April as seasons change.

****WINTER RECAP coming This WEEKEND! and SPRING OUTLOOK coming ALSO this weekend***

HAVE A GREAT NIGHT GUYS!

Friday Night Weather Update

-
Updated: 0115z/21:15/09:15PM

----------------------------------FORECAST----------------------------------

TONIGHT - Cloudy with some spotty showers possible, then as cold air filters through changing over to some snow showers. Lows near 30°.

SATURDAY - Snow showers/light snow developing in the morning around 9-10 and lasting throughout the day on and off, light accumulation, more as you get East and on LI. See map below.

SUNDAY - Sunny, highs in the low 40's.

MONDAY - Highs in the mid 40's, sunny, maybe a scattered shower.

--------------------------FORECAST DISCUSSION------------------------

Active day on Saturday! An Upper air disturbance will move across the area tonight and interact with a developing coastal storm tomorrow spreading snow showers/light snow back to just about the Hudson River, with accumulations of 2-4" through SE New England, maybe even some localized 3-6" on Long Island not impossible!

Sunday through Tuesday should be nice, sunny or partly cloudy highs in the mid 40's maybe into 50's as High Pressure settles over the area.

A couple clippers to watch for Wednesday and Thursday maybe, and still watching a potential biggie storm for Easter weekend. Whether or not it is rain or snow or both is still to be decided, and we will not talk about it in depth until Wednesday or Thursday at the least.

Thursday Evening Weather Update SPECIAL on the Winter Storm

-
Updated: 0100z/21:00/09:00PM

----------------------------------FORECAST----------------------------------

TONIGHT - Clear but getting cloudy as the night progresses on, temperatures in the low to mid 20's.

FRIDAY - Cloudy with snow arriving midday, might have some stickage issues at first but ground temps and air temps (aloft as well) will be good to support snow. Snow may be heavy at times especially between 4-6pm. This will be a heavy, wet snow guys - none of that fluffy snow we have been getting! Snow continuing into the nighttime, temperatures in the low to mid 30's.

FRIDAY NIGHT - Snow continuing and tapering off between 10pm and midnight for most east of NYC. Temps in the low 20's.

SATURDAY - Temperatures in the low to mid 40's, cloudy in the morning changing to sunny.

-------------------------FORECAST DISCUSSION-------------------------

A small area of low pressure will continue to deepen and move North/NE throughout the night, spreading rain before changing over to snow as it reaches Southern PA and the mountains of West Virginia, and overspreading snow to our area (East of NYC) By midday.

The models, especially the GFS have been pretty consistent on their ideas with this storm for several runs, and Dillon and I feel confident in our forecast. That being said, as always we will be nowcasting as the storm arrives. A key factor during this storm will be the March sun, and temperatures. Tomorrow is the Vernal Equinox, and with that comes equal day and night. While temperatures will be at or below freezing for us, for the most part, the high angle of the sun and the strength of the incoming solation will try to melt the snow. This will play the biggest part during the daytime, however, with the storm arriving a bit later now with the heaviest precipitation (Heaviest precip will be between 4-6PM LIKELY, THIS CAN CHANGE), the sun will be setting and the strength lessened - a bit. Not to say it will be negligible.

To overcome the high sun angle and strength, strong snowfall rates for a good amount of time would be required, as this would promote evaporational and dynamic cooling within the air column to keep the temperatures even cooler, and lessen the suns affect.

That being said, as we look at the soundings and cross sections during the storm, temperatures look very good to support snow, especially big fat flakes which could help accumulate faster.

As the storm happens, Dillon will monitor the Radar and provide small updates (I will be out of town, will try to update if possible) throughout the day.

Also, important to note that even though the snow will be falling by midday, there may be sticking issues causing it not to stick immediately. This should not be a huge problem, especially if we can get big snowfall rates.

Our first call snow map still applies, and is posted below.

Wednesday Evening Weather Update - Winter Storm coming!

-
Updated: 0117z/21:17/09:17PM

----------------------------------FORECAST----------------------------------

TONIGHT - Lows in the low teens, clear, guys the clear spots and brisk wind will keep things nice n crisp and cold tonight!

THURSDAY - Highs in the low to mid 30's MAYBE just maybe up to 40° for some, clear and less windy.

FRIDAY - Cloudy temperatures in the low 30's, snow beginning between 1 and 3pm as of now as the storm approaches, snow will probably have a bit of a hard time sticking at first. Snow continuing through the afternoon into the night.

SATURDAY - Any snow will have ended overnight, total accumulations on the map below. Temperatures in the low to mid 40's.

--------------------------FORECAST DISCUSSION------------------------

A disturbance in the plains will continue to drop rain over the southern Plains and Southeast tonight and tomorrow, and at the same time NRG will drop down from Canada, developing our storm in the Carolina's region Thursday night into Friday. WHERE this NRG hooks up with our developing storm will dictate the exact track and whether or not it is able to make the left turn up the Coast and closer to us. FOR NOW, THOUGH this storm should make it to the Lower Hudson Valley, as it will likely interact with a very strong upper low feature around Hudson Bay...Now, that being said we will have to watch how much moisture makes it up into the area and how close to the coast the coastal low forms. Some of the models have it "reforming" into a nice and more powerful low off the LI coast, which would throw precip back. IN ANY CASE, the low is a CLOSED LOOP low, meaning most of the Precip will be N/NW of the track of the low. Right now this is just to the south of us - it would not take much for it to come a bit north.
Snow will be heavy, as the temperatures are marginally cold enough to support snow. Timing is Friday afternoon through late Friday night for all points east of NYC.

FIRST CALL MAP BELOW.

Longer range outlook, still looking to stay well below average temperatures for the next several weeks, and plenty of storm options. Whether or not they are rain or snow or both is still to be decided, but definitely storms on the horizon.

Dillon and I will be posting a winter Recap in the next few days and then in a couple weeks our spring outlook.

hAVE A GREAT NIGHT!

Monday Evening Weather Update

-
Updated: 0105z/21:05/09:05PM

------------------------------------FORECAST--------------------------------

TONIGHT - Lows in the upper 30's to low 40°, cloudy with a few spotty showers after midnight as a vigorous cold front begins to move through.

TUESDAY - Warmer ahead of the cold front highs near 50° maybe a spotty shower or two, THEN as the cold front comes through - could we be looking at some snow showers or a snow squall? MAYBE...its a very vigurous change in the atmosphere. 

WEDNESDAY - Windy behind the cold front, pressure gradient very big as a wave develops offshore and High pressure settles over us. Cold too highs in mid 30's. Typical of mid to late January.

THURSDAY - Highs near 40° Mostly sunny.

--------------------------FORECAST DISCUSSION------------------------

FUN FACT: Some Places in Northern Kansas and Nebraska reached into the 80's and 90's today! Will we ever reach that? Well at least not for the next month!

A vigorous cold front will move through late tonight into tomorrow afternoon, with a small wave developing off of it. Some rain showers and some possible snow showers on and off then as the wave deepens offshore, winds will kick up from the pressure gradient.

NOW, I know A LOT of you will hate to hear this - but yes, snow is in the realms of possibility, big possibility for Friday into Saturday. Timing, precipitation, amounts, all that stuff is still to be decided. BUT, all signs are pointing to the possibility of a nice big storm. 

The NAO and AO will go negative, as will the EPO while the WPO will be near nuetral and the PNA positive. THIS IS EXACTLY WHAT WE WANT FOR A BIG STORM! Blocking should set up over Greenland, and that will help slow down the storm coming. Now the track will be very dependent as that will decide the precip type and amounts for us. Right now we want it a bit north to give us heavier snow. 

?????????P.S. - JUST A HINT, OR OBSERVATION, BUT Comparing the data for this potential storm, to that of the March 1993 Blizzard - they are looking very similar. ??????

HAVE A GREAT NIGHT GUYS!

Sunday Evening Weather Update

-
Updated: 2345z/19:45/07:45PM

FORECAST

TONIGHT - Lows in the low 30's, mostly clear maybe a few clouds.

MONDAY - A Bit warmer, highs in the high 40's to maybe 50°, mostly cloudy.

TUESDAY - A system will be passing to the north, however it will be weak so a few rain showers in the morning, otherwise partly sunny and highs in the mid to high 40's.

WEDNESDAY - A cold front will have passed through, associated with the Tuesday system and Arctic High pressure will settle over, highs in the high 30's.

FORECAST DISCUSSION

Very active pattern coming up guys, and going to get a bit technical here if you do not mind. The overall climate is likely in a transition period right now between warm and cold phases of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. In addition to this we have a return of the El Nino, but a Modoki El Nino. On top of all this we have the natural tumultuous period of transitioning from Winter to spring, which is huge in itself. All of this combined, and more is adding to the overall pattern that we have been experiencing.

As some of you might know, this winter we have had above average SST's in the North Atlantic, especially off the east coast. This is characteristic of the AMO beginning its switch to its cold (-) phase, which will take many years to fully finish. This has inhibited the NAO to go negative, which is what helps us get Greenland blocking, and bigger storms here on the East Coast. NOW, as we know - that did not help much this year, as we got many big storms with a +NAO. The driver behind this is above average temperatures in the Pacific, especially in the Gulf of Alaska and off of Baja. This has helped keep ridges pumping it up in the west, which then helps drive the Jet stream south over us, letting cold air in, which is what contributed to one of our coldest winters. This is also why the western half of the Country has been rather warm/mild and dry, especially in terms of snow storms. THIS IS NOT GLOBAL WARMING THOUGH! ITS A NATURAL PHENOMENON!.

What we are seeing now is more of the specific pattern that was present in February, although not as cold. So, yes it will be well below average temperatures for this time, but that means 30's to 40's, not 0's to 10's.

The models are specifically showing 2-4 threats for us over the next 2-3 weeks, that could very well be snow, or rain or both. The first one would be this week, Friday into Saturday if it materializes. We will continue watching the models and let you know!

Have a great night guys!

Wednesday Evening Weather Update - Some big changes coming!

-
Update: 2130z/17:30/05:30PM

FORECAST

TONIGHT - Lows around freezing, a cold front has come through already, however the actual cold air will be delayed until tomorrow.

THURSDAY - Highs in the low to mid 40's, sunny and a bit of a breeze.

FRIDAY - Highs in the low to mid 40's, sunny not as breezy.

SATURDAY - Storm time! Looks like this one will be mainly a soaker, with a bit of snow on the front end possible but little to no accumulation if anything. Still some details to workout, but it will generally be rainy all day long with heavy rain possible. Highs in the low 40's.

FORECAST DISCUSSION

What a nice week we have had!! I bet everybody has appreciated the warmer temps, snow melting and sunny skies! Well...do not get use to it! This was a "false" spring, and the overall pattern is going BACK to our stormy and cold that we experienced for much of the last 3 months. Now, it will not be AS cold..but certainly well below the average temperatures. The "target" period for this pattern will be essentially the 15th through end of March and maybe into early April.

This weekend will feature a nice storm, however, even with colder air being shot in before, it will still be too warm across the board for us to get any real snow out of it, unless you are in Maine and far northern New England - this is a mostly to all rain event.

Getting into next week however, we do see ANOTHER possible storm that could be more snow then rain.

SO...Bottom line is, if you are looking at the point-and-click websites and seeing "End of winter" or "warmer temps coming" - sorry! Not right! Winter still has a hold on us!!!!

Have a great day! and as always, I will quote the Great Joe Bastardi, "Enjoy the weather, its the only weather you got!"

Sunday Evening Weather Update - Quiet Week ahead!

-
Updated: 0030z/20:15/08:15PM

FORECAST

TONIGHT - Mainly clear, maybe a bit of icey rain/cold showers and a few wet flakes in the morning as a system passes to the south. Highs in the low 30's.

MONDAY - Maybe some icey rain/cold showers and a few wet flakes in the morning, otherwise Cloudy in the low 40's

TUESDAY - Pretty cloudy, low 40's...not much going on.

WEDNESDAY - Warmest day this week - will we reach 50°? COULD! Highs Upper 40's to mid 50's likely, sunny.

THURSDAY - Sunny highs in the mid 40's

FRIDAY - A bit cooler, highs in the low 40's to upper 30's maybe rain/light snow developing in the nighttime as a POSSIBLE storm approaches.

FORECAST DISCUSSION

Well we got through last week did we not? 21" of new snow last week - about 6" of that melted, the rest got condensed down, added about 6-8" to our snowpack? I still have 25" on my lawn...question is how long will that last!

No real Arctic air coming this week, a relaxation in the northern jet and a buckle north in the southern jet will allow for some mild air to come north, an area of HP will help with this midweek. As a storm passes to our south TONIGHT, MAYBE a bit of icey rain/big flakes but nothing to talk about. Best days of the week probably Wednesday-Thursday, sunny and mild!

NEXT possible storm could be a BIGGIE - Winter (????) Just does NOT (????) Want to give upp! Still many details, and a lot of time for things to change, but definitely some sort of storm for the weekend. Hint - WE DO have blocking (FINALLY) and will be getting a fresh injection of Arctic Air - NOW the question is do they meet up and produce the white stuff, or miss each other - and rain? To early to tell! More updates on this later in the week!
-
HAVE A G R R R EAAAA T Night!

Thursday Midday Winter Storm Update

Updated: 1700z/12:00/12:00PM

**Everything working out as expected right now guys! NWS and the other major weather outlets now scrambling to revise their forecasts - they always seem to...miss the boat shall we say?**

FORECAST

TODAY - Snow will continue for the next several hours tapering off between 4 and 6pm this evening, most likely an additional 3-6" today as a heavy band comes through from the west in response to a bit of an amplification in the system. TOTAL snowfall can be viewed on map below, but generally 4-8" in the Westchester Area. Temps steady in the low 20's, as the storm ends you will know it when you see a wall of sunshine to the NW.

TONIGHT - Bitter cold, lows in the single digits around 5-8° MUCH colder NW of NYC. Clearing out completely.

FRIDAY - Sunny, watch for some ice MAYBE, not very likely but possible. Highs in the low 20's and windy.

NOTE: Looks like the cold dry air is winning out in the Boston/New England Area (Sorry Peter!), the storm will end latest down in the Philly/Jersey area as the cold air takes over this evening 6-9pm, 4-6pm for NYC/northern Suburbs and 2-4pm in CT and Upstate NY and Boston.

Wednesday Evening Winter Storm Update *Biggie! Big Changes!*

-
Updated: 0145z/20:45/08:45PM

****BIG Changes in some of the models have no moved the storm track nearly 50 miles NORTH, putting us once again in the zone for heavier snow. To give an example, the GFS went from .44" QPF to .95" QPF with .82" QPF as snow.

Dillon and me have decided however to stay on the bit of a lower end as it is only one model, and saying 4-8" with the VERY TRUE possibility of going up!!...VERY BIG possibility of this folks!

FORECAST

TONIGHT - Rain showers will transition to heavy sleet/snow around 2-3am as the storm approaches. Temperatures will continue to drop into the upper 20's tonight, 2-4" Of snow and sleet expected BEFORE dawn.

THURSDAY - Snow, heavy at times and some sleet mixing in continuing throughout the day an addition 2-4" expected, with a VERY real possibility of going up to 3-5" or more. Highs in the high 20's maybe reaching 30° - GUYS, SNOW ratios will be High, 12-15:1. Snow will taper off and end around 3-4pm and all out by late evening. TOTAL storm accumulations can be seen on the map below.

THURSDAY NIGHT - Rapid Freeze up into Friday as things start to clear up!

FRIDAY - Clear, Sunny - FREEZING Highs in the low 20's.

FORECAST DISCUSSION

So last night the models were all going south - and now back north? YEP! What is happening is the COLD AIR, the Arctic HP is coming in slower then originally thought, not allowing the storm to push south. An ana-frontal type system is now set up and making its way through the Ohio valley, precipitation on the NORTHERN side of the front and Low. This will continue to move East NE towards us and spread rain to sleet to heavy snow by dawn, most likely between 2-3am. A very strong jet streak will also move along, hopefully adding to the NRG and enhancing our snow by providing better dynamics. The Arctic HP will be following close behind.

No matter what, this will really be a Nowcast situation as it is changing a lot on the models. Looking at observations will be key. But I do believe, and so does Dillon, that this WILL be a significant system.

**LOOKING at the LATEST data, MOST of the snow would fall from after RUSH HOUR through early afternoon.****

Monday Evening Upcoming Storm(s) Weather Update

Updated: 0100z/20:00/08:00PM

FORECAST

TONIGHT - Pretty much clear, lows in the low teens to single digits maybe in far northern and northwest areas of NY and New England.

TUESDAY - Clear skies will give way to thickening clouds, temperatures in the high 20's to right around 32°, Snow and sleet developing in the LATE afternoon (SEE SNOW MAP), 1-3" (could change, but we doubt it) into the evening and nighttime.

TUESDAY NIGHT - Snow/sleet changing over to ice/sleet/rain and finally all rain by Wednesday morning, nighttime temps around freezing...WATCH out this could be a SERIOUS ice situation as ground is frozen, and a lot OF cold air around...

WEDNESDAY - Ice/wintry mix changing over to all rain in the morning (around rush hour probably maybe a bit sooner/later) will continue throughout the morning, may be a bit heavy at times... Should be a lull in the precipitation during the afternoon as the Initial [storm] moves out then starting again in the evening. Temps in the high 30's to low 40's.

THURSDAY - We have a BIG potential to waking up with NEW snow on the ground and snow falling, as a new wave forms off the back of the Lake Cutter and comes through Wednesday Night through Thursday afternoon/evening...We WILL have cold air in place and this could be a BIG storm...we will keep you posted.

FRIDAY - COLLD Rapid freez up Thursday night, Highs in the low to mid 20's, mostly sunny.

FORECAST DISCUSSION

We have a VERY wild week ahead! A bit of a break today and most of tomorrow before our next storm arrives. A lake cutter will form and move across the area. Since the Center of the Low pressure will be FAR to the N and W of us, it will be a mostly rain event - HOWEVER, we have plenty of cold air in place so watch out for a big THUMP of snow Tuesday evening into the night 1-3" locally 2-4" before a changeover to rain/sleet/ice into Wednesday morning then all rain Wednesday. NOW the interesting part - a brief lull in the precipitation HOWEVER, bucket loads of moisture with this system, and the models have been insistant on another wave forming along the Arctic Frontal Boundary. Cold front will come through Wednesday night, new shot of colder air, and a new wave will form to the SW of us and move ALONG that frontal boundary towards us. THIS would be our all snow event, or Rain to ALL snow event starting Wednesday night and lasting through Thursday Afternoon likely. At this point accumulations could be anywhere from 5 to 10" although that could change. WHEREVER this front boundary sets up is where the axis of heaviest snows will be. If I take an average from ALL the 6 models with snowfall maps, that gives NYC metro area and northern Suburbs 6-8" snow. A wet heavy snow too.

So keep an eye out for our posts - wild week ahead. More cold for Friday as well with a flash freeze Thursday night.

***THE SNOW MAP IS ONLY FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING***

HAVE A GREAT NIGHT!

7 P.M. Sunday Evening Storm/Weather Update

We thought we should try a different way of giving updates on the page...Please, please tell us if you like this way or the other way better. Your comments are key, as we do this for all of you!

FORECAST

TONIGHT - Snow, heavy at times will continue throughout the night, total accumulations between 3-6" with locally 4-8" very possible depending on where those bands set up over us. Temperatures will stay steady in high teens to low low 20's. Snow will taper off and end between 2-4am, definitely by 5am for almost all west of Hartford.

MONDAY - Clouds and possibly a few stray snow showers early will give way to mostly sunny skies behind the storm, highs in the low 30's. Winds will be a bit frisky, WNW @ 15-20mph gusts to 25mph maybe.

MONDAY NIGHT - Clear, lows in the low teens.

TUESDAY - Clear turning cloudy quickly, with likely light snow developing in the evening and maybe a big thump of front end snow as our next storm approaches...still some things to work out with the storm so more updates later on this. Highs near freezing.

WEDNESDAY - Ice/sleet probably over to all rain, again more details to workout.

FORECAST DISCUSSION

Our current storm will continue to trudge northeast tonight, the precipitation shield will eventually turn to the NE/ESE tonight. Most of the snow will end around NYC between 2-4am, definitely by 5am. Thumping will continue and maybe a bit of ice as the thermal gradient comes northward - what is happening is we get this frontal wedging, and 40-50 mph winds in the lower jet stream from the South with warm air slamming into the cold arctic air - this creates a TON of lift and perfect dynamics for the snow as the cold air is forcing that warm air straight up where it can condense and fall as snow. SO, storm totals still on key with our map from last night. a general 3-6/4-8" for most N/NE of NYC.

WE get a ONE DAY break, tomorrow before our next storm roles in. This is a difficult storm, and actually a bit of 2 storms in one. First a lake cutter will ride the St. Lawrence river, and likely give us a good front end thump of snow Tuesday night before changing over to ice/sleet then rain for Wednesday. A lull in the precip as the LC moves out..BUT we have an interesting development as the models are seeing an LP form along an ana front just to the SW of us..NOW, as this LP moves towards us, remember we will have had a cold front come through Wednesday night with the Lake Cutter - this looks to be SNOW as it comes through, and COULD dump a good amount of snow. Just to give an idea, the GFS has 16" for us in the next 5 days...9" if you take off whats falling now. The European has 13" for the same period, 8" if you take off today's snow. The Canadian has 3", the NAM has 8"...so all somewhat similar.

If there is one word to describe this week it is: WILD.

Anyway, please let us know how you like this new format, and enjoy the weather, its the only weather you got! (As Joe Bastardi always says!)

********MIDDAY UPDATE - SNOW IS COMING*******

Snow is showing up on radar but not hitting the ground yet - most likely due to the dry air. In any case light snow will begin in the next couple of hours, and will really kick up this evening into the nighttime.

We are bumping back the end time, it will be all over by the very early hours of Monday morning, most likely before rush hour.

Nothing else is changing in our forecast.

_________________________

HAVE A GREAT DAY!

*****SATURDAY 10pm UPDATE - WILD WEEK AHEAD GUYS, REALLY WILD*****

FIRST, Quick moving quick hitting THUMP of snow late tomorrow afternoon through Monday late morning. A small but somewhat potent system will move through the Ohio valley tonight into tomorrow and then across the area tomorrow evening throughout the night before moving out late Monday morning. NOW, alotta the weather sites saying 1-3" or 2-4" total...GUYS Sorry BUT NOT GONNA BE THAT WAY! Rain snow as well...Nope its gonna be all snow, MAYBE a bit of ice on the backside..

SECONDLY...Mesoscale Banding - VERY important in this storm, maybe more so then in other storms. The models are showing a large amount of southerly winds (flowing to the north) on the warm side of the Arctic air boundary...the models are showing this continue as the storm moves over us. WHERE the edge of this warm wind and cold air meet BOOM thats where we will really get that thumping. NOW the models cannot accuraterly depict this, so they are saying 4-6" (.4-.6" QPF), but wherever those bands set up could easily bring that up 4-8" or 6-10"...NOW, that could be high, Dillon and I think a safe thing to assume is 4-8" for almost all north of NYC...read map to see details

___________________

___________________

NEXT STORM...OMG so much to talk about this, but will wait until Monday to give all the details...Timing likely Tuesday night through Wednesday night maybe into Thursday morning but that could change. It would be Snow to ice to rain to ice to snow to all snow and could be a lotta snow if this holds up - models trending colder by the day! Goodbye brief warmup!

___________________
___________________

SOO.. still slowly creeping back to normal ISH temperatures in the next couple weeks, but the models are holding fast for below average temps at least next 40 days...soo we will keep you updated!
__________________
__________________

TONIGHT - Cold lows in low teens to around 10°, clear, but getting cloudy.

SUNDAY - Cloudy with light snow developing between 3-6pm changing to a heavier more steady snow during the late evening through the nighttime. Highs in the mid to high 20's. WATCH out for that thumping, talked about above in the afternoon.

SUNDAY NIGHT - Snow, HEAVY at times with THUMPING possible, maybe changing to ice/sleet for a brief period at the end. The storm will be outta hear by lunchtime the LATEST in NYC, most likely between 7-9am.

MONDAY - Snow ending between 7-9am, highs in the low 30's

TUESDAY - Cloudy highs in the high 20's to low 30's...storm approaching at night, more on this later.

__________
HAVE A GREAT NIGHT

********WEDNESDAY EVENING 8:30PM UPDATE**********

Sorry about no update last night, Dillon and me were both very busy, and we did not feel there was enough to make a meaningful post. Its been a quiet week!

*****************

Feels warm past couple of days right! SLOWLY, ever so slowly we are trending (barely noticeable) back to "average" temperatures...Now the question is will we get back to Average or ABOVE average? At least in the next 2 weeks - We doubt it. Maybe a few small warm ups here and there for a couple hours...but overall models trending Below to WELL below average for the next several days, into the 2-3 week margin...maybe even through the next 45 days?

*****************

Many storms on the horizon, first big one would be Sunday to maybe Tuesday, likely Sunday night - Monday night. Right now Rain/ice to snow maybe back to rain or all snow...many details to workout too early too say much.

Tomorrow morning chance of light snow and some snow showers as a system passes to the south. Little to no accumulation for us.

*****************

TONIGHT - Lows near 10° progressively colder North and NW of NYC. Clear but becoming cloudy as the night goes on.

THURSDAY - Possible Light snow/snow showers (Most likely some flurries - BUT) No accumulations likely. Highs in the low to mid 20's.

FRIDAY - Highs in the mid 20's, some sun some clouds.

SATURDAY - Sunny highs near 30°, overall a pleasant day smile emoticon

HAVE A GREAT NIGHT GUYS!

********MONDAY NIGHT 7:30 PM UPDATE**********

I hope your vacations were great! I know I had a fabulous time in Jamaica! AND, Dillon and I ARE VERY HAPPY with our forecast for the weekend storm - WE KNEW it would be colder and snowier...fell right on target with what we said it would do!

****************

Absolutely the COLDEST air of the season (This time I am pretty sure it WILL be the coldest!) coming tonight into tomorrow - tonight's lows WILL LIKELY be in the NEGATIVES for almost everybody in New England/NE north of NYC. 

***************

Right now looking like we have dodged 2 possible snowstorms for this week, although there is still a possibility of them coming back west on the models - WE shall wait and see!

**************

Snow showers/Light snow possible Thursday night??? It is a possibility!

**************

BRIEF warmup next Monday? We could get up to 40 or above for a couple hours! ;) then back to cold! A possible storm as well in that time period early next week.

**************

TONIGHT - Frigid from -3° here in Irvington to possibly below -10° in parts of Western NY and New England. Clear.

TUESDAY - 7am Temps COULD BE -15° WITHOUT THE WINDCHILL! Then it will warm up to the balmy low to mid teens IF THAT MUCH. 

WEDNESDAY - Highs in the mid to upper 20's maybe a passing snow shower in the afternoon. Otherwise Partly cloudy/sunny.

THURSDAY - Chance of light snow/snow showers in the morning through afternoon and evening maybe into the night...Little or no accumulation at this point, Highs near 20°.

HAVE A GREAT NIGHT GUYS!

********FRIDAY NIGHT 6:45 PM UPDATE*********

FIRST OFF GUYS, The Rivertowns Enterprise was NICE ENOUGH to write an Article on Dillon and me, regarding our Weather pages and Science Research. If you get the Enterprise, PLEASE read the article! Just skip the forecast for this weekend, when we made it there was NO indication of a storm for tomorrow.

THANK YOU Enterprise, THANK you to all of you who support us! Continue to spread the word, and lets get these forecasts to more and more people!

*******************************
**********PLEASE READ THIS ALL, IT IS IMPORTANT - POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS STORM COMING***********

STORM for tomorrow - VERY TRICKY folks, but Dillon and me are VERY CONFIDENT with our forecast!

A clipper moving SE off of Lake Erie will transfer its energy to a developing coastal low which will then intensify greatly SE of Long Island and move NE of Nantucket tomorrow night before moving out Late Sunday night/Monday morning for New England.

When the Clipper transfers its energy, it will be doing so more or less over or just to the south of us...essentially the trough will be extended back and slow the system down a tad as it develops throwing back a bit more moisture over us then if this did not happen.

ONCE AGAIN, EASTERN LONG ISLAND, BOSTON, EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS, AND COASTAL MAINE - YOU GUYS ARE THE BIG WINNERS WITH THIS, HOWEVER, HOWEVER, NYC AND SUBURBS, WESTCHESTER, ETC...WE HAVE A CHANCE AT SOME REAL GOOD SNOW!

Here is the thing with this storm: We have FRIGID AIR IN PLACE. We will have winds 25mph with gusts to 40mph, especially in the coastal regions. We have PLENTY of snow on the ground, most of which is fluffy and not compacted down.

DILLON AND I BOTH KNOW THAT THERE IS NO WINTER STORM WARNING UP, BUT WE FEEL THERE SHOULD BE ONE FOR THE FOLLOWING REASONS:

1. Blizzard Conditions ARE POSSIBLE during the night tomorrow.
2. SNOW RATIOS WILL BE DOUBLED OR MORE, MEANING THE 1-3" ON THE WEATHER CHANNEL CAN EASILY BE 3-6" AND WILL MOST LIKELY BE 3-6"+
3. FRIGID TEMPERATURES
4. Snow WILL be heavy at times during the night

(Am I glad I will be in Jamaica?)

******************************

ANOTHER Potent storm on the Horizon for Tuesday/Wednesday
More details later.

******************************

TONIGHT - Not as cold as last night but still frigid! Highs in the high single digits to low teens, Windchills could still get negative. Clouds will start to roll in as well.

SATURDAY - Snow showers in the morning will evolve into a steadier light snow through the evening, becoming HEAVY at times during the night. Winds will be HIGH guys, 25mph sustained with gusts to 40mph or more. Blowing snow, and FRIGID temperatures will give to possible Blizzard Conditions. Snow will CONTINUE throughout the night and end EARLY Sunday morning. Temperatures in the mid teens to low 20's during the day, and FRIGID during the night as another arctic shot comes through, lows in the single digits and windchill values in the negatives. SNOW RATIOS THROUGH THE ROOF!

SUNDAY - Snow ending early, winds will still be up there, windchill values possibly in the negatives especially in the morning. Clearing out throughout the day, maybe some sun by afternoon.

MONDAY - FRIGIDIDDDD Morning in the single digits to negatives, warming up to balmy low teens maybe.

TUESDAY - Another possible storm? More later on this

*********************************

ARTICLE POSTED BELOW.