Showing posts with label jet stream. Show all posts
Showing posts with label jet stream. Show all posts

Sunday, April 5, 2015

Sunday Midday Weather Update - Yucky weather this afternoon

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Updated: 1700z/13:00/01:00PM
----------------------------------FORECAST----------------------------------
TODAY - Stationary front will set up just to the NORTH of NYC bringing some higher elevation snow to the Catskills, Adirondacks and maybe a dusting of snow at the NY/CT/MA border. Areas NYC and north not getting snow expect a very cold light rain/showers to develop early afternoon around 2PM on and off throughout the evening and into the night clearing out around midnight. South of NYC should be nice, partly cloudy with gusty winds. Highs in the mid 50's to 60's White Plains to NYC, 60's and maybe 70's south of NYC, 40's to mid 30's North and West of NYC. Warmer along the coasts.

MONDAY - Highs in the mid 50's to maybe 60's, especially NYC and SW. Partly Sunny/Cloudy on and off throughout the day. 

TUESDAY - Next storm comes in the afternoon/evening... Mostly rain for the area maybe some snow to the North...more on this tomorrow night. Highs mid 40's to 50's and upper 30's to the North and NW. 

WEDNESDAY - Another wave comes through, much colder as a cold front will have passed...guys I have a feeling its gonna be a lot more wintry then many think, but for now lets keep the majority of the snow north of the CT/MA border...but watching this carefully. Highs in mid 40's to upper 30's.

--------------------------FORECAST DISCUSSION------------------------
Slowly but surely we are getting to spring guys! Below I have a nice graphic of the average Jet positions during winter and summer...right now the jet is slowly moving from its winter position to its spring/summer position...once we get it up there, and its looking like after April 10th - 13th we start getting in that position and will start feeling real spring like. Our Spring outlook will be coming out in the next few day(s) so you can see all the details from that.

TODAY A stationary front will set up just to the north of NYC and with it will come a wave of low pressure and moisture slug. NOW, right now this front looks to be setting up north enough of NYC that for the most part NYC and south should have a pretty good day. Long Island - you may get some steadier rain this evening, but most of the precip should stay to the north. Mountains, higher elevations could see a coating to an inch of snow...should not stick much though. Westchester folks, gonna be a dicey situation and tricky, but weather should go downhill around 2pm. 

IN the meantime...very wintry week coming up for the NE, mostly north of I84 and CT/MA border, HOWEVER there could be some surprises. A couple storms will accompany this, rain and snow for those well to the north. 

SEVERE weather outbreak this week as well in the Midwest, Kansas, Oklahoma, Missouri, Illinois and Arkansas/Kentucky, probably the most severe so far this season as we will combine the strong jet, a very warm wet northerly flow off the Gulf and cold air from the north...making a very volatile situation.


OK that's it for now, enjoy the rest of your vacation!

Thursday, April 2, 2015

Thursday Night Weather Update - Storm after storm coming! Snow? Noppe!

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Updated: 0220z/22:20/10:19PM
-----------------------------------FORECAST---------------------------------
TONIGHT - Some passing rain showers will spread light rain over the area, otherwise wind getting a bit windier lows in the high 40's maybe into low 50's.

FRIDAY - WARM! Folks I do think we got a GOOD run at 65-70°!!! Now...beggars cannot be choosers, so we do have a storm coming, Nice big storm! Rain showers on and off throughout the day, becoming more steady during the night Friday. Snow with this system will stay WAY to the north near Canadian Border.
SATURDAY - One storm leaves, another comes! Partly cloudy, windy as our fairly large Friday storm moves out...clouds moving in and out. Highs in mid 40's.
SUNDAY - ANOTHER system comes through, Stationary front (tad anafrontal) setup right over NYC or just to the north, where this sets up will be key...whoever is north of it gets bad weather, south good...etc you know the drill. More on this Friday. Highs mid 40's maybe into 50's.
--------------------------FORECAST DISCUSSION------------------------
Many many storms are coming! But is winter over? I am saying - if you live South of Boston - Albany line, for the most part our winter is over...maybe some snow will fall but most likely nothing accumulating anymore until next season! Does that mean spring is here? NO! The Jet is beginning its transition to its normal Spring-Summer position, but we still have plenty of chances for well below average temperatures. NOW, when will the jet change? Still looking at a target period of April 10-13 and after is when we will start looking spring-like.
In the meantime, A very powerful storm will pass over the area tomorrow afternoon/night, which if it was 100 miles more south and with arctic air would be a massive blizzard....unfortunately not the case. SO, very windy as this is a strong and tightly packed system tomorrow and into Saturday night.
Saturday is the day between systems as we get ready for another system to set up over us...this one will be a stationary front that will set up somewhere in the immediate area around NYC...somewhat Anafrontal as the precipitation will be behind the front. Whoever stays south of that front will get nice weather - north of it bad weather. Its a battle of Ossining getting rain and (maybe) some sleet and Irvington getting blustery cloudy skies.
Temperatures for the next few weeks will roller coaster between 30's - 40's and 50-60's even 70° as the jet transitions. Just like rollercoaster November, we now get Rollercoaster April as seasons change.
****WINTER RECAP coming This WEEKEND! and SPRING OUTLOOK coming ALSO this weekend***
HAVE A GREAT NIGHT GUYS!