Wednesday Evening Update - Summer, oh summer

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Updated: 0120z/21:20/09:20PM

---------------------------------FORECAST-----------------------------------

TONIGHT - Partly Cloudy/clear warmer lows in the mid 60's.

THURSDAY - Muggy and humid as a ESE flow sets up, sunny with clouds in the morning will give way to more clouds and a good chance for some t-storms in the afternoon, some could be strong, gusty winds and heavy bursts of rain. Hottest day of the week, highs in the mid to high 80's, could see 90° in a few spots.

FRIDAY - Warm but a bit drier, not AS humid but still humid, sunny, highs in the low to mid 80's.

*Tell ya one thing, the AC better be working tomorrow and Friday at school :)*

SATURDAY - T-storms return especially in the afternoon likely, as a low passes to the north and a cold front is dragged along with it, otherwise partly sunny/partly cloudy highs in the low to mid 80's.

-------------------------FORECAST DISCUSSION-------------------------

OKI DOKI! Enjoy today? Was not too hot or cold, nice and breezy smile emoticonperfect weather. Well do not get use to it!

High pressure will move offshore, and Bermuda High will strengthen a bit bringing a ESE/SSW flow and humid, warm air into the region especially getting into NYC-Jersey and South...Highs in the HIGH 80'S into the 90's south west of NYC, mid to high 80's with maybe a few 90's N/NW of NYC...coastal areas a bit cooler.

Tomorrow as a cold front slowly drags along and some disturbances ride along it watch out for scattered showers and t-storms especially in the evening after all the heating from the day, convection and instability will increase through the day. Plenty of water in the air, +1.5" so watch for heavy rain.

Cold front will bring in cooler and drier air for Friday into the weekend, along with High pressure building over us, not as muggy...BUT, LP moving through the N. Great Lakes and into Northern NY will drag a cold front with it, as well as a warm front ahead of it will increase the convection throughout the day and set up instability for a possibility of some strong t-storms and gusty winds into the evening. As that leaves the area comes with it HP and cooler air and then the cycle continues again...t-storms, warm air, cold air, etc. You know the drill!

Now A quick little El Nino Update! It might be easier for those reading this to view it on the blog page as the pictures will be lined up with the actual words...ANYWAY (Oh and sorry bout the pic quality JAMSTEC has to work on their maps)

First picture shows the predicted temperature anomalies from JAMSTEC, who is very reliable, for June-July-August. NOT as cool as last year, but still you can see it is not much ABOVE AVERAGE (unless you count +.5°C a lot). You can see Texas and much of the mid portion of the country below normal, following the El Nino. The important thing here is to watch what happens as the year goes on....carefully.

SECOND picture showing same thing, predicted temp anomalies but for September - October - November. Cold has expanded east more, and at the same time if you look at the El Nino graphs you can see it has reached its peak here and is declining and returning to a more modoki signature...same as last year 

wink emoticon

JAMSTEC SON Temp ANOMALIES

THIRD PIC showing Dec-Jan-Feb anomalies...WOW, almost ALL of the country WELL below average temps!!!! What does the El Nino Modoki index say? It gets stronger at the same time the temps get lower! HINT HINT smile emoticon

So, alot of models and a lot of people are saying there will be a massive El Nino...THIS IS TRUE (ISH) The models have been ALL over the place with the intensity...one thing is for sure, it will not be more then +2.5, most likely it will end up between 1.5-2 as the current trends are going...what is interesting though is that while the intensity forecasts have been changing, it has been more or less consistent of when it ends and what state it goes into after ending - Modoki...so if that gives any indication of what next winter will be like, especially since we had the same setup last winter....speaking of winter, I hear the snowpiles up in Boston are still going strong? Peter is this true? Lucky people ;)

There ya go! Latest update is done smile emoticon Have a nice night folks!

Sunday Afternoon Update - Here come the DELAYED rains!

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Updated: 1945z/15:45/3:45PM

----------------------------------FORECAST---------------------------------- 

REST OF TODAY - Rain showers and localized heavy downpours/t-storms as well as possible HAIL and high wind gusts will move across the area in response to the cold front trudging its way through well to the west of us. Rains will become more organized as evening progresses. Temps maxing out around 80° WATCH FOR FLOODING. FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TONIGHT - Cold front passes in the late evening probably between 7-9pm, watch those temps plummet into high 50's low 60's across much of the area north of NYC northern suburbs.

MONDAY - Rain for much of the day heavy at times, watch for localized flooding as 1-3" across the area of rain can be expected with this system from late tonight through Tuesday night.. Highs Monday in the HIGH 50's maybe reaching 60-62°

TUESDAY - Watch for Thunderstorms and rain in the morning into the afternoon possible as the system exits to the east, then maybe some partial clearing and the sun should peak out in the late afternoon - need some things to come into play for this to happen so lets wait and seer], highs in the low to mid 60's.

WEDNESDAY - High pressure builds into the area behind the storm system and drier cooler air comes in, Highs in the mid to high 60's maybe up to 70°, clouds in and out and watch for some wind.

--------------------------FORECAST DISCUSSION------------------------

OKI Doki very potent system we got moving into place, lets get into the rains - for the next 2-3 days!!!

Cold front will continue to move southward, right now it is just about 35-50 miles north of us, anyway it will continue southward through the afternoon and will move to the south of us by late tonight - now, if it were just this cold front then the rains would be short and sweet - BUT, big BUT, we have waves of low pressure that will form along the frontal boundary and move NE from the Jersey/Baltimore region through our region and into New England lasting through, AT THE VERY LEAST late late Monday night - but likely into Tuesday afternoon if things shape up well. WE NEED this rain - THAT being said, the ground is dry, and flooding will occur so watch out, especially getting into the Mid Hudson valley and CT/MA border down into Jersey where 2-4" of rain could fall over the next 2-3 days. NYC and Northern Suburbs, including LI and along the Jersey coastline, CT coastline and southern N.E a bit less rain, but still 1-3" with localized higher amounts.

For the immediate afternoon, instability is increasing as we speak as the cold front enhances the lift in front (south) of it, mL Cape is 1200-1800 should increase to 2200-2500 j/kg before decreasing as the Front moves to the south of us...lots of precipitable in the air in excess of 2" across the area will feed the system, and with low winds out of the lower level jet these storms will sit...sit and sit.

Low pressure moves along the front getting into Monday and a shortwave NRG moving across will increase that lift, so watch ot for more heavy rain although not as many t-storms, NE flow develops as High pressure moves into the region Monday night into Tuesday and cooler air/drier - in the mid 60's to low 70's comes into place for much of the week.

SO...this is all good rain to help our dry spell, BUT be careful for any flooding! Models continue to show more rain for the end of the week getting into next week as well, so we will keep an eye on that! Graphics below to show some of the things talked about here smile emoticon have a nice rest of Sunday!

Sunday Evening Weather Update - Nice week ahead for the most part!

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Updated: 2350z/19:50/07:50PM

------------------------------------FORECAST--------------------------------

TONIGHT - Lows in the mid 40's for most everybody, Clear but getting a bit cloudy towards morning.

MONDAY - Small chance of a spotty shower in the morning, but probably not. Clouds in the morning will clear out, highs in the low 60's for most, nice breeze as well.

TUESDAY - Morning will feature light rain, maybe a thunderstorm or two before clearing out by afternoon, Highs in high 50's to maybe low 60's.

WEDNESDAY - Highs in the high 50's, mostly sunny with some passing clouds likely.

---------------------------FORECAST DISCUSSION-----------------------

First off, Dillon and I hope that you liked our 2015 Spring Outlook! If you have any questions - come ask away. Spring is an interesting period as it a changing season and we often go up and down in the weather during it. So lets enjoy it!

Pretty nice week coming up for the most part, mild weather in the high 50's to low 60's for most of the week should work out nicely. A cold front will pass through the area Tuesday morning into the afternoon and that will bring some showers and possibly a t-storm with it, and then High pressure will build over the area getting into Wednesday and Thursday, keep in mind this is rather cold air coming down from Canada..it should stay mild, but still below average temperatures for this period. This will stick around until Friday night, as another cold front begins to come into the area for Saturday bringing our next chance at some rain.

Some Highlights
-Rain Tuesday Morning
-Possible Rain Saturday night into Sunday
-Another storm possible early next week.

I have below the 10 day GFS total precipitation totals, the South has some pretty impressive #'s down there, some places near New Orleans approaching the 10" mark. Most of this will fall late this week, would not be surprised of reports of flooding. Of course California is bone dry....we should see that change in the coming months!

Wednesday Evening Weather Update - Yucky weather Will end soon!

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Updated: 2320z/19:20/7:20PM

----------------------------------FORECAST----------------------------------

TONIGHT - A few passing showers is possible around NYC and Northern Suburbs tonight, while a wave of low pressure moves to the north and brings sleet wet flakes on the CT/MA border and heavier snow North and Northeast in Interior Northern New England. Temps in the mid 30's to high 20's in Maine.

THURSDAY - Cloudy, maybe a few rain showers on and off throughout the afternoon. Highs in the mid 40's.

FRIDAY - Partly to mostly cloudy with a chance of scattered thunderstorms in the morning and afternoon, very good chance of getting well into the 60's on this day, 60-65° seems very plausible and maybe even close to 70°.

SATURDAY - Sunny with clouds moving in and out...so lets say partly to mostly cloudy? Highs in mid 40's to maybe 50°.

-------------------------FORECAST DISCUSSION-------------------------

Highlight of the day...SEVERE WEATHER! Ya not here, but man do we have some interesting stuff going on out in the Plains. What we got is a stalled out frontal Boundary going right across the country from Colorado to Ohio to the Carolina's and to us. You can see it in the pictures I have below. This stalled out boundary also happens to be right smack on the edge of the Pacific jet, and it started ushering in waves of low pressure and NRG and it just keeps on giving wink emoticon. So we get a frontal boundary, a jet giving tons of moisture off the Pacific, warm gulf air being sucked up north, Cold air to the North of the Front...recipe for disaster!

So today we got the nice frontal boundary out west draping through ESE Kansas, west Oklahoma, western Texas and into Missouri. Along with it we have the dry-line located right to its west. Advantage today is that there is little warm air aloft along the dry-line, and Lapse rates, CAPE, wind shear among other items are inline and good for spawning severe thunder storms and tornado's. We can see several areas in SE Kansas, Missouri, even a bit in Kentucky where we have supercells forming. Lets see if we can get a tornado outta one. One thing that was noted is that with little convection over last night and today, the actual frontal boundary lifted north a tad. So, NCEP and other sites have changed their ideas a bit north as well with it. Main show starts this evening and into the nighttime (Late afternoon for them in the plains) as the main bulk of NRG comes in behind the initial upper level disturbance. If winds back off and stay back as the Upper low deepens this afternoon, then thats when we start really seeing the tornado's form. But one step at a time.

NOW, for us here in the NE...the jet will continue to bring in waves of low pressure until Friday night as it all moves out and the HP to our north begins to back off and let the jet resume to its normal moving position. Things should really start to warm up next week, looking like multiple days into the 60's and maybe 70's...do we even see an 80° day late next week? Could be!

CIAO for now!

Sunday Midday Weather Update - Yucky weather this afternoon

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Updated: 1700z/13:00/01:00PM

----------------------------------FORECAST----------------------------------

TODAY - Stationary front will set up just to the NORTH of NYC bringing some higher elevation snow to the Catskills, Adirondacks and maybe a dusting of snow at the NY/CT/MA border. Areas NYC and north not getting snow expect a very cold light rain/showers to develop early afternoon around 2PM on and off throughout the evening and into the night clearing out around midnight. South of NYC should be nice, partly cloudy with gusty winds. Highs in the mid 50's to 60's White Plains to NYC, 60's and maybe 70's south of NYC, 40's to mid 30's North and West of NYC. Warmer along the coasts.

MONDAY - Highs in the mid 50's to maybe 60's, especially NYC and SW. Partly Sunny/Cloudy on and off throughout the day. 

TUESDAY - Next storm comes in the afternoon/evening... Mostly rain for the area maybe some snow to the North...more on this tomorrow night. Highs mid 40's to 50's and upper 30's to the North and NW. 

WEDNESDAY - Another wave comes through, much colder as a cold front will have passed...guys I have a feeling its gonna be a lot more wintry then many think, but for now lets keep the majority of the snow north of the CT/MA border...but watching this carefully. Highs in mid 40's to upper 30's.

--------------------------FORECAST DISCUSSION------------------------

Slowly but surely we are getting to spring guys! Below I have a nice graphic of the average Jet positions during winter and summer...right now the jet is slowly moving from its winter position to its spring/summer position...once we get it up there, and its looking like after April 10th - 13th we start getting in that position and will start feeling real spring like. Our Spring outlook will be coming out in the next few day(s) so you can see all the details from that.

TODAY A stationary front will set up just to the north of NYC and with it will come a wave of low pressure and moisture slug. NOW, right now this front looks to be setting up north enough of NYC that for the most part NYC and south should have a pretty good day. Long Island - you may get some steadier rain this evening, but most of the precip should stay to the north. Mountains, higher elevations could see a coating to an inch of snow...should not stick much though. Westchester folks, gonna be a dicey situation and tricky, but weather should go downhill around 2pm. 

IN the meantime...very wintry week coming up for the NE, mostly north of I84 and CT/MA border, HOWEVER there could be some surprises. A couple storms will accompany this, rain and snow for those well to the north. 

SEVERE weather outbreak this week as well in the Midwest, Kansas, Oklahoma, Missouri, Illinois and Arkansas/Kentucky, probably the most severe so far this season as we will combine the strong jet, a very warm wet northerly flow off the Gulf and cold air from the north...making a very volatile situation.


OK that's it for now, enjoy the rest of your vacation!

Thursday Night Weather Update - Storm after storm coming! Snow? Noppe!

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Updated: 0220z/22:20/10:19PM

-----------------------------------FORECAST---------------------------------

TONIGHT - Some passing rain showers will spread light rain over the area, otherwise wind getting a bit windier lows in the high 40's maybe into low 50's.

FRIDAY - WARM! Folks I do think we got a GOOD run at 65-70°!!! Now...beggars cannot be choosers, so we do have a storm coming, Nice big storm! Rain showers on and off throughout the day, becoming more steady during the night Friday. Snow with this system will stay WAY to the north near Canadian Border.

SATURDAY - One storm leaves, another comes! Partly cloudy, windy as our fairly large Friday storm moves out...clouds moving in and out. Highs in mid 40's.

SUNDAY - ANOTHER system comes through, Stationary front (tad anafrontal) setup right over NYC or just to the north, where this sets up will be key...whoever is north of it gets bad weather, south good...etc you know the drill. More on this Friday. Highs mid 40's maybe into 50's.

--------------------------FORECAST DISCUSSION------------------------

Many many storms are coming! But is winter over? I am saying - if you live South of Boston - Albany line, for the most part our winter is over...maybe some snow will fall but most likely nothing accumulating anymore until next season! Does that mean spring is here? NO! The Jet is beginning its transition to its normal Spring-Summer position, but we still have plenty of chances for well below average temperatures. NOW, when will the jet change? Still looking at a target period of April 10-13 and after is when we will start looking spring-like.

In the meantime, A very powerful storm will pass over the area tomorrow afternoon/night, which if it was 100 miles more south and with arctic air would be a massive blizzard....unfortunately not the case. SO, very windy as this is a strong and tightly packed system tomorrow and into Saturday night.

Saturday is the day between systems as we get ready for another system to set up over us...this one will be a stationary front that will set up somewhere in the immediate area around NYC...somewhat Anafrontal as the precipitation will be behind the front. Whoever stays south of that front will get nice weather - north of it bad weather. Its a battle of Ossining getting rain and (maybe) some sleet and Irvington getting blustery cloudy skies.

Temperatures for the next few weeks will roller coaster between 30's - 40's and 50-60's even 70° as the jet transitions. Just like rollercoaster November, we now get Rollercoaster April as seasons change.

****WINTER RECAP coming This WEEKEND! and SPRING OUTLOOK coming ALSO this weekend***

HAVE A GREAT NIGHT GUYS!

Friday Night Weather Update

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Updated: 0115z/21:15/09:15PM

----------------------------------FORECAST----------------------------------

TONIGHT - Cloudy with some spotty showers possible, then as cold air filters through changing over to some snow showers. Lows near 30°.

SATURDAY - Snow showers/light snow developing in the morning around 9-10 and lasting throughout the day on and off, light accumulation, more as you get East and on LI. See map below.

SUNDAY - Sunny, highs in the low 40's.

MONDAY - Highs in the mid 40's, sunny, maybe a scattered shower.

--------------------------FORECAST DISCUSSION------------------------

Active day on Saturday! An Upper air disturbance will move across the area tonight and interact with a developing coastal storm tomorrow spreading snow showers/light snow back to just about the Hudson River, with accumulations of 2-4" through SE New England, maybe even some localized 3-6" on Long Island not impossible!

Sunday through Tuesday should be nice, sunny or partly cloudy highs in the mid 40's maybe into 50's as High Pressure settles over the area.

A couple clippers to watch for Wednesday and Thursday maybe, and still watching a potential biggie storm for Easter weekend. Whether or not it is rain or snow or both is still to be decided, and we will not talk about it in depth until Wednesday or Thursday at the least.

Monday Night Weather Update

*Sorry for lack of posts, Dillon and I have been extremely busy with research work*

-Updated: 0145z/21:45/09:45PM

----------------------------------FORECAST----------------------------------

TONIGHT - Lows near 20°, partly cloudy, clearing though.

TUESDAY - Mix of sunshine and clouds highs in the high 30's to maybe 40°.

WEDNESDAY - Some afternoon showers possible as a warm front passes through. Highs in the low to mid 40's.

THURSDAY - Maybe some spotty showers in the morning, otherwise highs in the mid to high 40's

FRIDAY - Cold front passes through in the morning bringing a chance of some showers maybe some snow Friday night we shall see, highs in the high 40's to maybe 50's...could get warmer we shall see.

--------------------------FORECAST DISCUSSION------------------------

Pretty transient weather over the next couple days, a couple warm and cold fronts over the next couple days will bring chances for rain showers and maybe some snow showers, or snow especially towards the end of the week.

Still looking at the possibility of more snow in the next 2 weeks. Specifically we are watching the **possible** development of a big storm that has been going on and off the models over the past several days, we shall see what goes on with that.

Longer range, still looking at below average temperatures for the next several weeks before flipping as the jet basically switches and the low pressure in the east degrades and shifts west bringing the cold to the west and building a ridge over the east bringing more warmth to our area. This will allow temperatures to move back to "normal" average temperatures. I do not think we will be seeing "above" average temps for some time.

Winter Recap Post coming on Monday of next week!

Ciao for now guys!

Wednesday Evening Weather Update - Some big changes coming!

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Update: 2130z/17:30/05:30PM

FORECAST

TONIGHT - Lows around freezing, a cold front has come through already, however the actual cold air will be delayed until tomorrow.

THURSDAY - Highs in the low to mid 40's, sunny and a bit of a breeze.

FRIDAY - Highs in the low to mid 40's, sunny not as breezy.

SATURDAY - Storm time! Looks like this one will be mainly a soaker, with a bit of snow on the front end possible but little to no accumulation if anything. Still some details to workout, but it will generally be rainy all day long with heavy rain possible. Highs in the low 40's.

FORECAST DISCUSSION

What a nice week we have had!! I bet everybody has appreciated the warmer temps, snow melting and sunny skies! Well...do not get use to it! This was a "false" spring, and the overall pattern is going BACK to our stormy and cold that we experienced for much of the last 3 months. Now, it will not be AS cold..but certainly well below the average temperatures. The "target" period for this pattern will be essentially the 15th through end of March and maybe into early April.

This weekend will feature a nice storm, however, even with colder air being shot in before, it will still be too warm across the board for us to get any real snow out of it, unless you are in Maine and far northern New England - this is a mostly to all rain event.

Getting into next week however, we do see ANOTHER possible storm that could be more snow then rain.

SO...Bottom line is, if you are looking at the point-and-click websites and seeing "End of winter" or "warmer temps coming" - sorry! Not right! Winter still has a hold on us!!!!

Have a great day! and as always, I will quote the Great Joe Bastardi, "Enjoy the weather, its the only weather you got!"

Sunday Evening Weather Update - Quiet Week ahead!

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Updated: 0030z/20:15/08:15PM

FORECAST

TONIGHT - Mainly clear, maybe a bit of icey rain/cold showers and a few wet flakes in the morning as a system passes to the south. Highs in the low 30's.

MONDAY - Maybe some icey rain/cold showers and a few wet flakes in the morning, otherwise Cloudy in the low 40's

TUESDAY - Pretty cloudy, low 40's...not much going on.

WEDNESDAY - Warmest day this week - will we reach 50°? COULD! Highs Upper 40's to mid 50's likely, sunny.

THURSDAY - Sunny highs in the mid 40's

FRIDAY - A bit cooler, highs in the low 40's to upper 30's maybe rain/light snow developing in the nighttime as a POSSIBLE storm approaches.

FORECAST DISCUSSION

Well we got through last week did we not? 21" of new snow last week - about 6" of that melted, the rest got condensed down, added about 6-8" to our snowpack? I still have 25" on my lawn...question is how long will that last!

No real Arctic air coming this week, a relaxation in the northern jet and a buckle north in the southern jet will allow for some mild air to come north, an area of HP will help with this midweek. As a storm passes to our south TONIGHT, MAYBE a bit of icey rain/big flakes but nothing to talk about. Best days of the week probably Wednesday-Thursday, sunny and mild!

NEXT possible storm could be a BIGGIE - Winter (????) Just does NOT (????) Want to give upp! Still many details, and a lot of time for things to change, but definitely some sort of storm for the weekend. Hint - WE DO have blocking (FINALLY) and will be getting a fresh injection of Arctic Air - NOW the question is do they meet up and produce the white stuff, or miss each other - and rain? To early to tell! More updates on this later in the week!
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HAVE A G R R R EAAAA T Night!

Thursday Midday Winter Storm Update

Updated: 1700z/12:00/12:00PM

**Everything working out as expected right now guys! NWS and the other major weather outlets now scrambling to revise their forecasts - they always seem to...miss the boat shall we say?**

FORECAST

TODAY - Snow will continue for the next several hours tapering off between 4 and 6pm this evening, most likely an additional 3-6" today as a heavy band comes through from the west in response to a bit of an amplification in the system. TOTAL snowfall can be viewed on map below, but generally 4-8" in the Westchester Area. Temps steady in the low 20's, as the storm ends you will know it when you see a wall of sunshine to the NW.

TONIGHT - Bitter cold, lows in the single digits around 5-8° MUCH colder NW of NYC. Clearing out completely.

FRIDAY - Sunny, watch for some ice MAYBE, not very likely but possible. Highs in the low 20's and windy.

NOTE: Looks like the cold dry air is winning out in the Boston/New England Area (Sorry Peter!), the storm will end latest down in the Philly/Jersey area as the cold air takes over this evening 6-9pm, 4-6pm for NYC/northern Suburbs and 2-4pm in CT and Upstate NY and Boston.

Monday Evening Upcoming Storm(s) Weather Update

Updated: 0100z/20:00/08:00PM

FORECAST

TONIGHT - Pretty much clear, lows in the low teens to single digits maybe in far northern and northwest areas of NY and New England.

TUESDAY - Clear skies will give way to thickening clouds, temperatures in the high 20's to right around 32°, Snow and sleet developing in the LATE afternoon (SEE SNOW MAP), 1-3" (could change, but we doubt it) into the evening and nighttime.

TUESDAY NIGHT - Snow/sleet changing over to ice/sleet/rain and finally all rain by Wednesday morning, nighttime temps around freezing...WATCH out this could be a SERIOUS ice situation as ground is frozen, and a lot OF cold air around...

WEDNESDAY - Ice/wintry mix changing over to all rain in the morning (around rush hour probably maybe a bit sooner/later) will continue throughout the morning, may be a bit heavy at times... Should be a lull in the precipitation during the afternoon as the Initial [storm] moves out then starting again in the evening. Temps in the high 30's to low 40's.

THURSDAY - We have a BIG potential to waking up with NEW snow on the ground and snow falling, as a new wave forms off the back of the Lake Cutter and comes through Wednesday Night through Thursday afternoon/evening...We WILL have cold air in place and this could be a BIG storm...we will keep you posted.

FRIDAY - COLLD Rapid freez up Thursday night, Highs in the low to mid 20's, mostly sunny.

FORECAST DISCUSSION

We have a VERY wild week ahead! A bit of a break today and most of tomorrow before our next storm arrives. A lake cutter will form and move across the area. Since the Center of the Low pressure will be FAR to the N and W of us, it will be a mostly rain event - HOWEVER, we have plenty of cold air in place so watch out for a big THUMP of snow Tuesday evening into the night 1-3" locally 2-4" before a changeover to rain/sleet/ice into Wednesday morning then all rain Wednesday. NOW the interesting part - a brief lull in the precipitation HOWEVER, bucket loads of moisture with this system, and the models have been insistant on another wave forming along the Arctic Frontal Boundary. Cold front will come through Wednesday night, new shot of colder air, and a new wave will form to the SW of us and move ALONG that frontal boundary towards us. THIS would be our all snow event, or Rain to ALL snow event starting Wednesday night and lasting through Thursday Afternoon likely. At this point accumulations could be anywhere from 5 to 10" although that could change. WHEREVER this front boundary sets up is where the axis of heaviest snows will be. If I take an average from ALL the 6 models with snowfall maps, that gives NYC metro area and northern Suburbs 6-8" snow. A wet heavy snow too.

So keep an eye out for our posts - wild week ahead. More cold for Friday as well with a flash freeze Thursday night.

***THE SNOW MAP IS ONLY FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING***

HAVE A GREAT NIGHT!

********FRIDAY NIGHT 6:45 PM UPDATE*********

FIRST OFF GUYS, The Rivertowns Enterprise was NICE ENOUGH to write an Article on Dillon and me, regarding our Weather pages and Science Research. If you get the Enterprise, PLEASE read the article! Just skip the forecast for this weekend, when we made it there was NO indication of a storm for tomorrow.

THANK YOU Enterprise, THANK you to all of you who support us! Continue to spread the word, and lets get these forecasts to more and more people!

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**********PLEASE READ THIS ALL, IT IS IMPORTANT - POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS STORM COMING***********

STORM for tomorrow - VERY TRICKY folks, but Dillon and me are VERY CONFIDENT with our forecast!

A clipper moving SE off of Lake Erie will transfer its energy to a developing coastal low which will then intensify greatly SE of Long Island and move NE of Nantucket tomorrow night before moving out Late Sunday night/Monday morning for New England.

When the Clipper transfers its energy, it will be doing so more or less over or just to the south of us...essentially the trough will be extended back and slow the system down a tad as it develops throwing back a bit more moisture over us then if this did not happen.

ONCE AGAIN, EASTERN LONG ISLAND, BOSTON, EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS, AND COASTAL MAINE - YOU GUYS ARE THE BIG WINNERS WITH THIS, HOWEVER, HOWEVER, NYC AND SUBURBS, WESTCHESTER, ETC...WE HAVE A CHANCE AT SOME REAL GOOD SNOW!

Here is the thing with this storm: We have FRIGID AIR IN PLACE. We will have winds 25mph with gusts to 40mph, especially in the coastal regions. We have PLENTY of snow on the ground, most of which is fluffy and not compacted down.

DILLON AND I BOTH KNOW THAT THERE IS NO WINTER STORM WARNING UP, BUT WE FEEL THERE SHOULD BE ONE FOR THE FOLLOWING REASONS:

1. Blizzard Conditions ARE POSSIBLE during the night tomorrow.
2. SNOW RATIOS WILL BE DOUBLED OR MORE, MEANING THE 1-3" ON THE WEATHER CHANNEL CAN EASILY BE 3-6" AND WILL MOST LIKELY BE 3-6"+
3. FRIGID TEMPERATURES
4. Snow WILL be heavy at times during the night

(Am I glad I will be in Jamaica?)

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ANOTHER Potent storm on the Horizon for Tuesday/Wednesday
More details later.

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TONIGHT - Not as cold as last night but still frigid! Highs in the high single digits to low teens, Windchills could still get negative. Clouds will start to roll in as well.

SATURDAY - Snow showers in the morning will evolve into a steadier light snow through the evening, becoming HEAVY at times during the night. Winds will be HIGH guys, 25mph sustained with gusts to 40mph or more. Blowing snow, and FRIGID temperatures will give to possible Blizzard Conditions. Snow will CONTINUE throughout the night and end EARLY Sunday morning. Temperatures in the mid teens to low 20's during the day, and FRIGID during the night as another arctic shot comes through, lows in the single digits and windchill values in the negatives. SNOW RATIOS THROUGH THE ROOF!

SUNDAY - Snow ending early, winds will still be up there, windchill values possibly in the negatives especially in the morning. Clearing out throughout the day, maybe some sun by afternoon.

MONDAY - FRIGIDIDDDD Morning in the single digits to negatives, warming up to balmy low teens maybe.

TUESDAY - Another possible storm? More later on this

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ARTICLE POSTED BELOW. 

********6PM THURSDAY UPDATE********

BRUTAL, BRUTAL COLD COMING GUYS!! Highs tonight JUST ABOVE 0°, and around 5-10° in the City, plus winds gusting UP to 40mph will yield to windchills from -10 to -30°...LIKELY, real feel temps will stay around -15° TONIGHT, AND into TOMORROW as temperatures tomorrow BARELY get up to 15°, windchill's staying in the negatives.

GUYS, this means Frostbite in UNDER 5 minutes...KEEP JACKETS ON, KEEP GLOVES ON, BUNDLE UP IT WILL BE FREEZZZING!!!!

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WINTER STORM Coming for Saturday Afternoon through to Sunday Morning. The STORM, PLUS WIND, PLUS THE FRIGID TEMPS WILL GIVE A DANGEROUS SITUATION, WITH POSSIBLE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS DURING THE NIGHT, ESPECIALLY Out on Eastern Long Island, and Massachusetts, Boston, up through coastal Maine.

YES BOSTON...Another foot of snow heading your way!

GUYS, even with low(er) amounts of snow near NYC, the FRIGID temperatures will lead to 20:1 or more snow ratios...meaning the normal 3-5" becomes 6-10"+...THIS will EASILY Occur I believe.

Models have been trending a bit further SW today, and bringing the heaviest snows a bit closer...lets see if this continues, if not, an EARLY, GUYS EARLY, Estimate at snow amounts for NYC Metro area and Northern Suburbs is 3-6", which could EASILY become 6-12" with higher ratios if they hold.

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ANOTHER, More potent storm potentially coming for Tuesday, still early to tell specifics

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TONIGHT - FRIGID lows near 0°, windchills -10 to -30° even down to -40° as you get NW of NYC. Clearing out

FRIDAY - FRIGID, BRUTALLY COLD, Highs barely reaching 15°, Windchill factor well below 0°. Clear skies, windy 10-20mph

SATURDAY - Highs in the mid to high 20's maybe making it to 30°. Light snow developing in the afternoon and continuing heavier at night. Temps during the night getting colder to near 0° as another arctic blast comes through.

SUNDAY - Light snow in the morning ending likely, Highs FREEZING in the single digits to low teens. Cloudy and clearing up probably.

***GUYS, NOTE THAT THE FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND IS NOT FINAL AS THERE ARE STILL DETAILS TO BE WORKED OUT FOR THE STORM.***

**********8PM Update Monday**********

Total snow for today was 2.9" - on the LOW side of our 2-5" Forecast, but still within that. Boston on the other hand, and areas around there - THEY are the winners. Approaching 6-7'+ of snow on the ground up there!!

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Rest of the night should start to clear out a bit, any light snow/sleet/ice will end by midnight. Temperatures will go down in the Highs teens/low 20's.

TOMORROW - Clouds will continue to clear out, Highs around freezing, WATCH for ice that may have formed overnight.

WEDNESDAY - Mostly Sunny, Highs in the High 20's to very low 30's.

THURSDAY - Next possible storm? Could evolve into a biggie, but for now 2-4" ish of snow late Thursday through Friday morning. Watch this carefully though because we could be in for a big storm.

Next storm after that would be for the weekend, and also could be a BIG one.

INTENSE, BRUTAL and coldest air of the season coming starting Thursday into the weekend. Highs could possibly barely reach the 20's, with lows well below 0°. We shall know specifics later, but seriously cold air coming.

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Have a great night guys!!!

********5PM SATURDAY UPDATE*********

Ok, Dillon and I have both been out this weekend in DC and Boston, so it is hard to post - we will do short updates for the Sunday-Monday storm.

THIS STORM IS LOOKING A BIT LIKE LAST WEEKS STORM GUYS.

Models have been trending a bit south today, we shall see with the 18z runs if this holds true.

Right now heaviest snows again in eastern New England and interior NY. BOSTON could receive up to 2'!!!!!!!!!

TIMING - Late Sunday afternoon/evening into Monday night.

Accumulations - CANNOT MAKE A MAP NOW, SO- NYC and south to central NJ, 1-3" at best. SIGNIFICANT ice problem is possible. NYC To i287/ Briarcliff, 3-6" with 4-8" localized amounts - this follows through southern CT/northern PA along the border and providence RI. North of all this, 6-10" localized 8-12" amounts. Boston to Albany and north about 100-150 miles ish 12-18" localized higher amounts of 18-24".

ANY movement north or south even 20-50 miles will have HUGE impacts on temps and accumulations. 20-30 miles south puts US in irvington in the 6-10" range, 20-30 miles north and we get nada.

Icing will be a slight problem between NYC and I287 as well.

It's going to be a messy, icky storm, much like last weeks storm.

More updates later from either Dillon or I. 

HAVE A GREAT NIGHT! Any questions ask in the comments or pm me or Dillon.

********WEDNESDAY EVENING UPDATE**********

OK GUYS GOTTA DO A QUICK ONE - LOTS OF OTHER STUFF TO DO!

MORE DETAILED ONE TOMORROW!

ANYWAY!

- SNOW FOR TOMORROW ON THE WAY, HEAVY? NO! LIGHT FLUFFY STUFF, A GENERAL 1-3", MAYBE JUST MAYBE 2-4" IF..AND ONLY IF WE ARE LUCKY. 

TIMING - LATE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON (LIKE LUNCHTIME) MAY BE A MESSY RUSH HOUR. 

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THEN THE BIG BIG BIG FREEZE...FOLKS YES, WE WILL GO FROM JUST AROUND 30° DURING THE DAY TOMORROW TO NEAR 0° AT NIGHT, NEGATIVE WITH THE WINDCHILLS...FRIDAY MORNING WILL BE FRIGID FRIGID, AS WELL AS THE DAY!!!

MORE COLD FOR THE WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK COMING.
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Rumors Going Around about a storm next week? WELL YES! The Models have been PRETTY INTENT AND CONSISTENT ON A LONG DURATION WINTER STORM From Sunday through Monday Night, maybe into Tuesday early early morning. Essentially what will happen is a storm will form on the edge of an Arctic front dropping down from Canada. Where this front is positioned will determine the heaviest snows, right now centered more or less over us, NY and parts of New England before a developing Coastal Storm moves up the coast and "merges" with our storm - THIS COULD BUMP UP SNOW DEPENDING ON WHEN AND WHERE THIS HAPPENS TOO!!

Another Possible Event for Next Thursday as well...but this is far out and not to worry about yet.

****MODEL UN FOLKS - GETTING SOMEWHAT WORRIED ABOUT OUR COMMUTE BACK SUNDAY IN TERMS OF THE STORM AND US DRIVING, MORE DETAILS TOMORROW.**********

SNOW MAP BELOW FOR CLIPPER...NOT REALLY MUCH TO SEE.

THANKS RYAN AT WEATHERBELL FOR THE MAPS - HE REALLY DOES AN AMAZING JOB as WELL AS EVERYBODY ELSE ON THE TEAM THERE! IF YOU WANNA LEARN ALOT ABOUT THE WEATHER AND GET AMAZING MAPS - GO TO www.weatherbell.com!!

*********TUESDAY EVENING UPDATIO********

AFTERNOON FOLKS, Hope you had a great weekend and fun snowdayyy :) Now get ready for more! ;)

BULLETINS:

1) Storm for Thursday/Friday which was supposed to be a combination of a clipper and Coastal storm forming will form TOO far East, leaving us with just a small clipper, 1-2" AT BEST FOR NOW. Everybody missing out on this storm - maybe the cape gets 3-6" thats it ***FOR NOW, THIS COULD CHANGE***

2) SUNDAY-MONDAY Still on the models as a potential major storm so keep an eye out.

3) RECORD cold coming over the weekend - if the models are correct SUBZERO temperatures possible WITHOUT the windchills

4) MORE storms on the horizon after Sunday/Monday System 

5) BRUTAL BRUTAL COLD ON THE WAY...REALLY 

**************FORECAST**************

TONIGHT - Clear highs in the low to mid teens.

WEDNESDAY - MAYBE OUR WARMEST DAY FOR THE NEXT WEEK? Warm front passing in the morning will spawn some Snow Showers, Not much accumulation if any, Highs reaching near or around 40° near the coast, and Mid 30's to HIGH 20's for the rest of the NE and New England..NOT FOR LONG THOUGH PEOPLE!

THURSDAY - Arctic Front on the move will plunge temperatures as the day goes on, Highs starting in the low to mid 20's will QUICKLY drop to teens and maybe single digits EVEN negatives by nightfall even down to the coast, BRUTAL COLD BY NIGHTFALL.!!!! LIGHT SNOW during the day on and off, ONLY A COATING TO AN INCH AT THIS POINT - THIS MIGHT CHANGE SO KEEP AN EYE OUT!!!! 

FRIDAY - COOLLDDDD BRUTAL COLD! Highs in the Single digits to MID/UPPER TEENS!!! COLD COLD COLD!! Partly Cloudy otherwise.

******IRVINGTON MODEL UN PEOPLES!!!, WEATHER WISE, LOOKING OK FOR NOW FOR OUR TRIP - BUT BUT BUT, COLD MAN IT IS GOING TO BE BRUTALLY COLD, WARMEST PROBABLY IN UPPER TEENS, BUT IT COULD GET DOWN WELL INTO THE NEGATIVES WITH THE WINDCHILL...PACK WARMMMLYYYY AND LOTS OF GLOVES. REMEMBER, THERE IS 4-5' OF SNOW PACK UP THERE - THIS WILL REFRIGERATE THE AIR, SO IT MAY BE COLDER THEN EVEN THE MODELS SAY. ************

*******MONDAY EVENING UPDATE ON WEEK AHEAD (WILD ONE?)*********

FIRST OFF, DILLON AND ME ARE VERY PROUD WITH HOW THIS STORM WORKED OUT AND OUR FORECAST - PRETTY MUCH SPOT ON. WE KNEW THAT COLD AIR WOULD STICK AROUND AND THIS STORM WOULD PRODUCE MORE SNOW THEN THE LIQUID STUFF THAT WE ALL HATE wink emoticon

SECONDLY - This next couple weeks COULD go down as the SNOWIEST two weeks for New England and parts of the NorthEast...if that gives you a hint at what is going on!
FLASH FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT! FOLKS TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY DROP AND THE WINDS WILL PICK UP. ANY STANDING WATER, MELTED SNOW, UNTREATED SURFACES, ETC WILL FREEZE UP! BE CAREFUL DRIVING, WALKING, GOING OUTSIDE!
******- 3 POTENTIAL STORMS ON THE WAY FOLKS! FIRST ONE FOR THURSDAY/FRIDAY AND THEN 2 MORE NEXT WEEK...AT THE VERY LEAST.********

We Still have details to work out with the storm for Thursday/Friday but KEEP YOUR EYES OUT for posts from us as we will have all the latest details!

TONIGHT - Temps falling to low teens/upper single digits for many and even down into the negatives North and NW of the City. Any snow showers will wrap up and end, skies gradually clearing.

TUESDAY - Highs in the LOW to MID 20's, I DOUBT we will reach 30°! WATCH FOR ICED UP SURFACES!!!! Partly cloudy, becoming sunnier as day goes on. WINDS will stay up there folks!

WEDNESDAY - Some Snow showers are possible during the day, Otherwise partly cloudy and Highs near 32°.

THURSDAY - Possible storm coming during the afternoon/evening into friday. STILL too early to really tell, more details tomorrow and Wednesday.

********11PM UPDATE ON WINTER STORM [LINUS?]*********

Snow Has started moving into the area, the ACTUAL system still WAY back in Western PA. The storm looks to be tracking a TAD south of what was thought - GOOD for snow lovers. Models continued to trend south a tad as well, only like 5-10 miles...but any trend is a good trend south.

IT WILL STILL be a close call with rain/snow line - WE ARE EXPECTING A POTENTIALLY SERIOUS ICE SITUATION FOLKS! Looks like at this point we cannot get out of that! UP TO A HALF AN INCH of Ice COULD ACCUMULATE ON TOP OF 5-8" OF SNOW! BE CAREFUL FOLKS!

So, Looking like a GOOD 6-9 hours of SNOW before we start thinking about changing over to wintry mix.

PERSONAL OPINION FROM DILLON AND I - BAD IDEA FOR SCHOOLS ON TWO HOUR DELAY, GOING TO BE VERY VERY ICY AND BAD ROADS/CONDITIONS TOMORROW. LETS HOPE THEY CHANGE THEIR DECISION.

BACK TOMORROW MORNING WITH UPDATES.

STILL HANGING ONTO SNOW ACCUMULATION MAP FROM BEFORE.

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