Sunday Afternoon Update - Here come the DELAYED rains!

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Updated: 1945z/15:45/3:45PM

----------------------------------FORECAST---------------------------------- 

REST OF TODAY - Rain showers and localized heavy downpours/t-storms as well as possible HAIL and high wind gusts will move across the area in response to the cold front trudging its way through well to the west of us. Rains will become more organized as evening progresses. Temps maxing out around 80° WATCH FOR FLOODING. FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TONIGHT - Cold front passes in the late evening probably between 7-9pm, watch those temps plummet into high 50's low 60's across much of the area north of NYC northern suburbs.

MONDAY - Rain for much of the day heavy at times, watch for localized flooding as 1-3" across the area of rain can be expected with this system from late tonight through Tuesday night.. Highs Monday in the HIGH 50's maybe reaching 60-62°

TUESDAY - Watch for Thunderstorms and rain in the morning into the afternoon possible as the system exits to the east, then maybe some partial clearing and the sun should peak out in the late afternoon - need some things to come into play for this to happen so lets wait and seer], highs in the low to mid 60's.

WEDNESDAY - High pressure builds into the area behind the storm system and drier cooler air comes in, Highs in the mid to high 60's maybe up to 70°, clouds in and out and watch for some wind.

--------------------------FORECAST DISCUSSION------------------------

OKI Doki very potent system we got moving into place, lets get into the rains - for the next 2-3 days!!!

Cold front will continue to move southward, right now it is just about 35-50 miles north of us, anyway it will continue southward through the afternoon and will move to the south of us by late tonight - now, if it were just this cold front then the rains would be short and sweet - BUT, big BUT, we have waves of low pressure that will form along the frontal boundary and move NE from the Jersey/Baltimore region through our region and into New England lasting through, AT THE VERY LEAST late late Monday night - but likely into Tuesday afternoon if things shape up well. WE NEED this rain - THAT being said, the ground is dry, and flooding will occur so watch out, especially getting into the Mid Hudson valley and CT/MA border down into Jersey where 2-4" of rain could fall over the next 2-3 days. NYC and Northern Suburbs, including LI and along the Jersey coastline, CT coastline and southern N.E a bit less rain, but still 1-3" with localized higher amounts.

For the immediate afternoon, instability is increasing as we speak as the cold front enhances the lift in front (south) of it, mL Cape is 1200-1800 should increase to 2200-2500 j/kg before decreasing as the Front moves to the south of us...lots of precipitable in the air in excess of 2" across the area will feed the system, and with low winds out of the lower level jet these storms will sit...sit and sit.

Low pressure moves along the front getting into Monday and a shortwave NRG moving across will increase that lift, so watch ot for more heavy rain although not as many t-storms, NE flow develops as High pressure moves into the region Monday night into Tuesday and cooler air/drier - in the mid 60's to low 70's comes into place for much of the week.

SO...this is all good rain to help our dry spell, BUT be careful for any flooding! Models continue to show more rain for the end of the week getting into next week as well, so we will keep an eye on that! Graphics below to show some of the things talked about here smile emoticon have a nice rest of Sunday!

Sunday Evening Weather Update - Nice week ahead for the most part!

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Updated: 2350z/19:50/07:50PM

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TONIGHT - Lows in the mid 40's for most everybody, Clear but getting a bit cloudy towards morning.

MONDAY - Small chance of a spotty shower in the morning, but probably not. Clouds in the morning will clear out, highs in the low 60's for most, nice breeze as well.

TUESDAY - Morning will feature light rain, maybe a thunderstorm or two before clearing out by afternoon, Highs in high 50's to maybe low 60's.

WEDNESDAY - Highs in the high 50's, mostly sunny with some passing clouds likely.

---------------------------FORECAST DISCUSSION-----------------------

First off, Dillon and I hope that you liked our 2015 Spring Outlook! If you have any questions - come ask away. Spring is an interesting period as it a changing season and we often go up and down in the weather during it. So lets enjoy it!

Pretty nice week coming up for the most part, mild weather in the high 50's to low 60's for most of the week should work out nicely. A cold front will pass through the area Tuesday morning into the afternoon and that will bring some showers and possibly a t-storm with it, and then High pressure will build over the area getting into Wednesday and Thursday, keep in mind this is rather cold air coming down from Canada..it should stay mild, but still below average temperatures for this period. This will stick around until Friday night, as another cold front begins to come into the area for Saturday bringing our next chance at some rain.

Some Highlights
-Rain Tuesday Morning
-Possible Rain Saturday night into Sunday
-Another storm possible early next week.

I have below the 10 day GFS total precipitation totals, the South has some pretty impressive #'s down there, some places near New Orleans approaching the 10" mark. Most of this will fall late this week, would not be surprised of reports of flooding. Of course California is bone dry....we should see that change in the coming months!

Thursday Night Weather Update - Storm after storm coming! Snow? Noppe!

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Updated: 0220z/22:20/10:19PM

-----------------------------------FORECAST---------------------------------

TONIGHT - Some passing rain showers will spread light rain over the area, otherwise wind getting a bit windier lows in the high 40's maybe into low 50's.

FRIDAY - WARM! Folks I do think we got a GOOD run at 65-70°!!! Now...beggars cannot be choosers, so we do have a storm coming, Nice big storm! Rain showers on and off throughout the day, becoming more steady during the night Friday. Snow with this system will stay WAY to the north near Canadian Border.

SATURDAY - One storm leaves, another comes! Partly cloudy, windy as our fairly large Friday storm moves out...clouds moving in and out. Highs in mid 40's.

SUNDAY - ANOTHER system comes through, Stationary front (tad anafrontal) setup right over NYC or just to the north, where this sets up will be key...whoever is north of it gets bad weather, south good...etc you know the drill. More on this Friday. Highs mid 40's maybe into 50's.

--------------------------FORECAST DISCUSSION------------------------

Many many storms are coming! But is winter over? I am saying - if you live South of Boston - Albany line, for the most part our winter is over...maybe some snow will fall but most likely nothing accumulating anymore until next season! Does that mean spring is here? NO! The Jet is beginning its transition to its normal Spring-Summer position, but we still have plenty of chances for well below average temperatures. NOW, when will the jet change? Still looking at a target period of April 10-13 and after is when we will start looking spring-like.

In the meantime, A very powerful storm will pass over the area tomorrow afternoon/night, which if it was 100 miles more south and with arctic air would be a massive blizzard....unfortunately not the case. SO, very windy as this is a strong and tightly packed system tomorrow and into Saturday night.

Saturday is the day between systems as we get ready for another system to set up over us...this one will be a stationary front that will set up somewhere in the immediate area around NYC...somewhat Anafrontal as the precipitation will be behind the front. Whoever stays south of that front will get nice weather - north of it bad weather. Its a battle of Ossining getting rain and (maybe) some sleet and Irvington getting blustery cloudy skies.

Temperatures for the next few weeks will roller coaster between 30's - 40's and 50-60's even 70° as the jet transitions. Just like rollercoaster November, we now get Rollercoaster April as seasons change.

****WINTER RECAP coming This WEEKEND! and SPRING OUTLOOK coming ALSO this weekend***

HAVE A GREAT NIGHT GUYS!

Wednesday Evening Weather Update - Some big changes coming!

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Update: 2130z/17:30/05:30PM

FORECAST

TONIGHT - Lows around freezing, a cold front has come through already, however the actual cold air will be delayed until tomorrow.

THURSDAY - Highs in the low to mid 40's, sunny and a bit of a breeze.

FRIDAY - Highs in the low to mid 40's, sunny not as breezy.

SATURDAY - Storm time! Looks like this one will be mainly a soaker, with a bit of snow on the front end possible but little to no accumulation if anything. Still some details to workout, but it will generally be rainy all day long with heavy rain possible. Highs in the low 40's.

FORECAST DISCUSSION

What a nice week we have had!! I bet everybody has appreciated the warmer temps, snow melting and sunny skies! Well...do not get use to it! This was a "false" spring, and the overall pattern is going BACK to our stormy and cold that we experienced for much of the last 3 months. Now, it will not be AS cold..but certainly well below the average temperatures. The "target" period for this pattern will be essentially the 15th through end of March and maybe into early April.

This weekend will feature a nice storm, however, even with colder air being shot in before, it will still be too warm across the board for us to get any real snow out of it, unless you are in Maine and far northern New England - this is a mostly to all rain event.

Getting into next week however, we do see ANOTHER possible storm that could be more snow then rain.

SO...Bottom line is, if you are looking at the point-and-click websites and seeing "End of winter" or "warmer temps coming" - sorry! Not right! Winter still has a hold on us!!!!

Have a great day! and as always, I will quote the Great Joe Bastardi, "Enjoy the weather, its the only weather you got!"

Thursday Midday Winter Storm Update

Updated: 1700z/12:00/12:00PM

**Everything working out as expected right now guys! NWS and the other major weather outlets now scrambling to revise their forecasts - they always seem to...miss the boat shall we say?**

FORECAST

TODAY - Snow will continue for the next several hours tapering off between 4 and 6pm this evening, most likely an additional 3-6" today as a heavy band comes through from the west in response to a bit of an amplification in the system. TOTAL snowfall can be viewed on map below, but generally 4-8" in the Westchester Area. Temps steady in the low 20's, as the storm ends you will know it when you see a wall of sunshine to the NW.

TONIGHT - Bitter cold, lows in the single digits around 5-8° MUCH colder NW of NYC. Clearing out completely.

FRIDAY - Sunny, watch for some ice MAYBE, not very likely but possible. Highs in the low 20's and windy.

NOTE: Looks like the cold dry air is winning out in the Boston/New England Area (Sorry Peter!), the storm will end latest down in the Philly/Jersey area as the cold air takes over this evening 6-9pm, 4-6pm for NYC/northern Suburbs and 2-4pm in CT and Upstate NY and Boston.

Wednesday Evening Winter Storm Update *Biggie! Big Changes!*

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Updated: 0145z/20:45/08:45PM

****BIG Changes in some of the models have no moved the storm track nearly 50 miles NORTH, putting us once again in the zone for heavier snow. To give an example, the GFS went from .44" QPF to .95" QPF with .82" QPF as snow.

Dillon and me have decided however to stay on the bit of a lower end as it is only one model, and saying 4-8" with the VERY TRUE possibility of going up!!...VERY BIG possibility of this folks!

FORECAST

TONIGHT - Rain showers will transition to heavy sleet/snow around 2-3am as the storm approaches. Temperatures will continue to drop into the upper 20's tonight, 2-4" Of snow and sleet expected BEFORE dawn.

THURSDAY - Snow, heavy at times and some sleet mixing in continuing throughout the day an addition 2-4" expected, with a VERY real possibility of going up to 3-5" or more. Highs in the high 20's maybe reaching 30° - GUYS, SNOW ratios will be High, 12-15:1. Snow will taper off and end around 3-4pm and all out by late evening. TOTAL storm accumulations can be seen on the map below.

THURSDAY NIGHT - Rapid Freeze up into Friday as things start to clear up!

FRIDAY - Clear, Sunny - FREEZING Highs in the low 20's.

FORECAST DISCUSSION

So last night the models were all going south - and now back north? YEP! What is happening is the COLD AIR, the Arctic HP is coming in slower then originally thought, not allowing the storm to push south. An ana-frontal type system is now set up and making its way through the Ohio valley, precipitation on the NORTHERN side of the front and Low. This will continue to move East NE towards us and spread rain to sleet to heavy snow by dawn, most likely between 2-3am. A very strong jet streak will also move along, hopefully adding to the NRG and enhancing our snow by providing better dynamics. The Arctic HP will be following close behind.

No matter what, this will really be a Nowcast situation as it is changing a lot on the models. Looking at observations will be key. But I do believe, and so does Dillon, that this WILL be a significant system.

**LOOKING at the LATEST data, MOST of the snow would fall from after RUSH HOUR through early afternoon.****

Tuesday Evening Winter Storm Update

Updated: 0030z/19:30/07:31PM

*****Emergency Alert for the Period NOW until Tomorrow Morning*****

Guys Obviously this front thump of snow has overachieved in everyway. Currently recording almost 5" at my house, and a friend in White Plains has the same recording. White Plains Airport is at 4.9" officially as of 7pm.

Please, please be careful - now we are changing over to an Ice/Freezing Rain/Sleet Mix and it will stay like this for the next SEVERAL hours before changing to plain rain around or after midnight.

Anymore Accumulations should be between 1-3" of this mess, maybe a bit more.

FORECAST

TONIGHT - ICE/freezing rain/sleet/snow continuing before changing over around midnight to rain. Additional Accumulations 1-3" if not more. Temps around freezing.

TOMORROW - Rain and dense fog, rain may be heavy at times in the morning, but doubtfull. The GROUND will be below freezing so WATCH out for Ice!!!!! GONNA be a really MESSY morning.
A lull in the precipitation as cold front comes through and storm pulls away, our second wave forming.

TOMORROW NIGHT - Rain turning to ice to all snow by midnight and continuing, temps in the mid to high 20's.

THURSDAY - Snow in the morning through afternoon tapering off in the evening. Could be significant accumulations. Temps in the high 20's.

FRIDAY - Frigid watch for rapid freezup highs in the low 20's.

FORECAST DISCUSSION

A rapidly deepening low pressure system will continue to move across Southern Canada and take over with rain after midnight tonight. As it pulls out tomorrow a wave will form off the bucket loads of moisture along the frontal boundary (cold/warm air) Where this frontal boundary will determine the exact trend of the heaviest snows, but it seems that the Arctic Air coming behind it will be enough to suppress the axis of heaviest precipitation along NYC to Philly. We would once again be on the northern edge of the heavy (ish) snows. Right now I am calling for 3-5" with a possibility of going down and up. Dillon thinks 1-2". What should be noted is that as the storm intensifies, much like today, the snow ratios will bump up especially from the air rapidly cooling. We can expect 12:1 ratios and maybe 15:1 if lucky. Also keep in mind that the heaviest snows are NYC to Philly - NYC is less then 30 miles away. It would really not take MUCH for us to get in the heavier snows again. An example is that Yonkers has a Winter Storm Warning for 4-8" of snow, and here in Irvington we have no warning and just 2-4" of snow. Not far to move!. however as of now this is the forecast. You could say Dillon scored a "coup" I still have my doubts though!

This second half of the storm should continue into Thursday afternoon and evening. Initial first call snow map is below.

Guys, even if we do not get 8-12" with the next batch of snow - it will be very icey, very dangerous tomorrow into Thursday afternoon. This is NOT a storm to take lightly, especially because of its long duration.

Ok thats it for now! Be back later if need be

 

smile emoticon

7 P.M. Sunday Evening Storm/Weather Update

We thought we should try a different way of giving updates on the page...Please, please tell us if you like this way or the other way better. Your comments are key, as we do this for all of you!

FORECAST

TONIGHT - Snow, heavy at times will continue throughout the night, total accumulations between 3-6" with locally 4-8" very possible depending on where those bands set up over us. Temperatures will stay steady in high teens to low low 20's. Snow will taper off and end between 2-4am, definitely by 5am for almost all west of Hartford.

MONDAY - Clouds and possibly a few stray snow showers early will give way to mostly sunny skies behind the storm, highs in the low 30's. Winds will be a bit frisky, WNW @ 15-20mph gusts to 25mph maybe.

MONDAY NIGHT - Clear, lows in the low teens.

TUESDAY - Clear turning cloudy quickly, with likely light snow developing in the evening and maybe a big thump of front end snow as our next storm approaches...still some things to work out with the storm so more updates later on this. Highs near freezing.

WEDNESDAY - Ice/sleet probably over to all rain, again more details to workout.

FORECAST DISCUSSION

Our current storm will continue to trudge northeast tonight, the precipitation shield will eventually turn to the NE/ESE tonight. Most of the snow will end around NYC between 2-4am, definitely by 5am. Thumping will continue and maybe a bit of ice as the thermal gradient comes northward - what is happening is we get this frontal wedging, and 40-50 mph winds in the lower jet stream from the South with warm air slamming into the cold arctic air - this creates a TON of lift and perfect dynamics for the snow as the cold air is forcing that warm air straight up where it can condense and fall as snow. SO, storm totals still on key with our map from last night. a general 3-6/4-8" for most N/NE of NYC.

WE get a ONE DAY break, tomorrow before our next storm roles in. This is a difficult storm, and actually a bit of 2 storms in one. First a lake cutter will ride the St. Lawrence river, and likely give us a good front end thump of snow Tuesday night before changing over to ice/sleet then rain for Wednesday. A lull in the precip as the LC moves out..BUT we have an interesting development as the models are seeing an LP form along an ana front just to the SW of us..NOW, as this LP moves towards us, remember we will have had a cold front come through Wednesday night with the Lake Cutter - this looks to be SNOW as it comes through, and COULD dump a good amount of snow. Just to give an idea, the GFS has 16" for us in the next 5 days...9" if you take off whats falling now. The European has 13" for the same period, 8" if you take off today's snow. The Canadian has 3", the NAM has 8"...so all somewhat similar.

If there is one word to describe this week it is: WILD.

Anyway, please let us know how you like this new format, and enjoy the weather, its the only weather you got! (As Joe Bastardi always says!)

********MIDDAY UPDATE - SNOW IS COMING*******

Snow is showing up on radar but not hitting the ground yet - most likely due to the dry air. In any case light snow will begin in the next couple of hours, and will really kick up this evening into the nighttime.

We are bumping back the end time, it will be all over by the very early hours of Monday morning, most likely before rush hour.

Nothing else is changing in our forecast.

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HAVE A GREAT DAY!

*******7:15PM UPDATE THURSDAY********

Oki Doki, We got ALOT going on over the next week or so.

- Sunday through Tuesday storm is an over runner, meaning (And THANK you to the teacher who taught Dillon and me all this!) We have a a S/SW flow in the Jet, and cA (Continental Arctic) airmass Flowing East. This is the overrunning part as you get Cold air at the lower altitudes and warm air on top in the Upper Altitudes. We get Precip then, even though this is not a warm front. SO...THIS IS HOW OUR STORM WILL FORM ON SUNDAY-TUESDAY! Problem is, wherever that Cold Boundary sets up (N/S) will determine where the snows are. RIGHT now, it is setting up more or less just to the south/over NYC...meaning another huge battle between warm and cold, snow/ice/rain. We shall see where this goes, but I have a big hunch that the boundary will set up farther to the south and give us some more snow. A difference of 50-100, EVEN 25-50 MILES could make a HUGE difference for us - like the last storm.

More updates to come. At this point though, we are still getting a good amount of snow, mostly a steady light snow lasting 36 hours or more possibly.

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-BRUTAL, and I mean brutal brutal cold coming this weekend...as you saw today temps dropped 20-30° for some from morning to now. This drop will CONTINUE and we will get DEEP into the negatives tomorrow morning with the windchill. Some places even -20° with windchill.

- COLD lets up a teensy bit, but barely and we go through the weekend still with very very cold temps. PEOPL, MORE COLD AIR on the way after this.

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**************************FORECAST****************************

TONIGHT - Clear, Temperatures continuing to drop to about 4-6° in NYC to Westchester, 0-4° Northern Westchester and Rockland and Southern CT, then negatives as you get further North. Windchills NEGATIVE from -5 to -20° or less.

TOMORROW - COLDDDD in the morning windchill values in the NEGATIVES, warming up to the balmy High teens to VERY VERY low 20's

SATURDAY - Chance of some light snow in the afternoon, probably not much accumulation if any. Highs near 30° and cloudy.

SUNDAY - Light snow showers/snow developing afternoon/evening and continuing through the night, first part of the storm. More on this later. Highs in the mid to high 20's.

MAP SHOWING TEMPS WHEN WE WAKE UP TOMORROW MORNING PEOPLE - FRIGIDDDDD

********11PM UPDATE ON WINTER STORM [LINUS?]*********

Snow Has started moving into the area, the ACTUAL system still WAY back in Western PA. The storm looks to be tracking a TAD south of what was thought - GOOD for snow lovers. Models continued to trend south a tad as well, only like 5-10 miles...but any trend is a good trend south.

IT WILL STILL be a close call with rain/snow line - WE ARE EXPECTING A POTENTIALLY SERIOUS ICE SITUATION FOLKS! Looks like at this point we cannot get out of that! UP TO A HALF AN INCH of Ice COULD ACCUMULATE ON TOP OF 5-8" OF SNOW! BE CAREFUL FOLKS!

So, Looking like a GOOD 6-9 hours of SNOW before we start thinking about changing over to wintry mix.

PERSONAL OPINION FROM DILLON AND I - BAD IDEA FOR SCHOOLS ON TWO HOUR DELAY, GOING TO BE VERY VERY ICY AND BAD ROADS/CONDITIONS TOMORROW. LETS HOPE THEY CHANGE THEIR DECISION.

BACK TOMORROW MORNING WITH UPDATES.

STILL HANGING ONTO SNOW ACCUMULATION MAP FROM BEFORE.

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http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/northeast.php

*********************QUICK Sunday Afternoon Update!**************

The GFS and the NAM have continued their northward trend since yesterday, meaning that there is the chance of less snow and more mixed precipitation especially during the height of the storm on Monday. However, this means SIGNIFICANT ICING is becoming increasingly likely, which is much worse than an extra few inches of snow. For now, though, Remy and I will keep our forecast from last night and will re-post the snow/ice map we made yesterday as the European and Canadian models from midnight are sticking with significant snowfall for the area. Based on some of the data right now, the GFS and the NAM may be too warm with the storm, and they might head towards a solution closer to the European and Canadian models later in the day. Our current snowfall map is more of an average between the four models. We will follow this storm throughout the day and post again later on this afternoon around 5:00 PM when the next model runs come in.

Here is yesterday's snow map, which (for now) still applies:

*******IMPORTANT UPDATE FOLKS!!!*********

**********TAKING A BIT OF A RISK HERE, BUT I THINK IT DESERVES TO BE PUT OUT************

LATEST MODEL DATA + SATELLITE AND RADAR DATA SHOWING THAT THIS CLIPPER WILL BE ABLE TO PICK UP SOME MORE MOISTURE OFF THE ATLANTIC AS IT PINWHEELS OUTTA HERE AND INTENSIFIES, A BIT SOONER ACTUALLY, AND THIS WILL **LIKELY*** DEVELOP SOME MODERATE BANDS OF SNOW IN THE MORNING RUSH HOUR. I HAVE WATCHED IT TREND MORE WITH EACH RUN, SO DILLON AND I THOUGHT WE SHOULD UPDATE THE SNOW MAP. 

STILL NOTE, CLIPPERS ARE VERY HARD TO PREDICT, BUT I THINK WE HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS ONE!, OTHER SNOW MAP STILL IN EFFECT IF THESE BANDS FAIL TO DEVELOP...MOTHER NATURE DOES WHAT MOTHER NATURE WANTS!

*******BLIZZARD ANALYSIS - WHAT WENT WRONG, WHAT WE COULD DO BETTER**********

******OK SINCE I GOT SOME REQUESTS FOR AN ANALYSIS OF THE STORM HERE IT IS FOR ANYBODY WHO WANTS TO UNDERSTAND WHAT HAPPENED. IF YOU ARE CONFUSED JUST ASK*******

FIRST OFF - I am seeing some articles saying that favoring one model was the main reason for this forecast bust. Sorry folks, but there were other reasons, outlined below that EVERYBODY missed - not just the models. We cannot blame computers for everything!

STORM HISTORY: The Storm formed further to the SW than originally thought and what was shown on the models, just to the east of South Carolina and with a more negative tilted trough axis. I think this led many to believe (including Dillon and I) that this would cause it to hug the coast more as it came up and then deepen and strengthen a bit sooner so that by the time it got up to LI it would stall and send those strong snows for a longer period of time. We should have seen this a bit on the Euro, as it hinted in the 12z model run on Monday that there would be a 30+" band over NYC through Central CT. If the storm had gone according to plan this would have been quite possible. 
The storm Storm moved East of Hatteras, NC but further West then models saw and that is when got those initial bands of heavy snow in the afternoon over LI and Southern CT and Westchester, part of NJ and PA as the clipper finished transferring its energy over to the developing storm. 
The storm moved up as planned, stalled as planned blah blah. 

So where did we get caught?

WHAT HAPPENED - First off, the Boundary between the Arctic air bleeding off the HP and the warmer air boundary was where it should have been the whole time, as shown on the models and upper air progs/surface maps and satellite, and the storm DID form along it as it should have. This made me believe even more it would follow a more westerly track as that’s where it would form and the Boundary was over NY. 
Once the storm got SE of LI though I noticed on the upper air progs we ran into trouble. All the models I think (that were printing out 24+” snow) were assuming this storm would:

(1) close off the trough at 700mb and then that would enable the heaviest snows to be focus N/NW of the low track (hence why I thought those bands S of Boston would move West) This storm SHOULD HAVE this by 6-8pm in order for anybody WEST of NY/CT Border to get the big snows. 

(2) The trough at 500mb did not close nearly in time, which should have been after midnight so that the storm would slow down and stall more throwing back more snow. It EVENTUALLY did this Early Tuesday morning (When we got that band of snow this morning).

(3) The trough (dip in the jet stream) was SO inverted even when it got up here that it allowed a ton of air to sink over into it over PA and around me over NY/CT border. This PROBABLY contributed to the precipitation being “dried” out of the storm on the WESTERN SIDE of the Precipitation shield as all this air rose and then had to sink elsewhere. If anybody was watching the radar at the time, it looked like a wall of snow JUST to the east of NYC and it was barely moving west, or looked like it was being eaten/squished up East of the Hudson.

(4) The rising warmer air and the sinking colder air around us PROBABLY contributed to more condensation which led to more latent heat and then the clouds just keep on floating up like balloons. (Clouds warmer then air around them) 

SO TO SUM IT ALL UP: The precipitation shield was just being eaten away as it came farther west, and then that combined with the sudden track trend east at like 2am led to the precipitation being lost over us. The low became to progressive and then got captured too late for us folks east of CT. Looks like NYC got a decent band late at night, and LI just kept getting pounded as the ocean probably helped with setting up those extreme bands of snow. In fact, another thing interested about the inverted trough – usually don’t see that sort of mesoscale extreme weather in winter…but hey Mother Nature does what mother nature wants. 

WHAT COULD WE HAVE DONE BETTER: 

1 - In the future, we will now look at, in much more detail the realtime data, IE Radar, Satellite, Water Vapor loops and upper air progs so that we can see what the storm is actually doing instead of what the model wants it to do.

2 - Do not lean towards/favor one model - pay more attention to trends on other models and combine them into our forecasts.

3- Look for the tiniest details, because they can be the biggest game changers!

This storm was always "TOO GOOD" to be true. It is amazing how PERFECTLY the variables have to add up to get a storm like this. One little thing can change everything.

HAVE A GOOD NIGHT FOLKS, THANKS FOR LISTENING, AND IF YOU HAVE ANY QUESTIONS - ASK!

*******FIRST SNOW MAP CALL FOR STORM TOMORROW BASED OFF OF THE Euro, GFS, NAM, NAM 4KM WRF, UKMET, AND CANADIAN MODELS********* 3PM UPDATE

OK, I am going to Explain this map - as some things are hard to draw in!

Areas in red I think will generally get the most out of this storm, as the bulls eye's are here on most of the models. HOWEVER, WE WILL NOT KNOW THIS FOR SURE UNTIL IT HAPPENS AND WE CAN SEE THE BANDING BEING SET UP. Models have a tough time with banding. the STARS indicate chances for localized amounts upwards of 30" possible.

THE REASON, I do not extend the red all the way to the MA Coast and Nantucket is that I see a SLIGHT chance of some mixing as the low swings past, bringing temperatures aloft to 1-2°C...However, this is a very tough call...they may very well end up with more.

Areas in Orange, So Around Poughkeepsie to Hudson/Albany and then West through Northern NJ and PA, East to just West of Boston, I am pretty solid on 14-18" with Localized Higher amounts.

Areas in Purple, and I include Boston in this, but they very well might end up with higher amounts, 10-14" with higher elevation areas receiving more.

AREAS NORTH OF ALBANY, to the NW 6-10"...this is starting to get to the outer edges of the storm IN BLUE

North WEST and NoRTH OF THAT, Central NY to Northern VT/NH...Sorry buds, Likely 1-4, 3-6" or around there.

ANY QUESTIONS, JUST PM ME. FULL UPDATE THIS EVENING.
NOTHING ELSE CHANGING! 

*******MIDDAY UPDATE FOLKS - THIS IS GOING TO BE A BIG ONE-*******

BRIEF UPDATE NOW, BIGGER ONE WITH 12Z EURO, AND FULL ONE THIS EVENING ONCE ALL MODELS OUT.

***I WOULD START MAKING SURE YOU HAVE GAS, FOOD, WATER, A GENERATOR THAT WORKS (IF YOU HAVE ONE ALREADY), GAS FOR SNOWBLOWERS, SALT, SHOVELS....ALL HANDS ON DECK??-****

First snow map will go out with the 12z Euro, but JUST to give you an idea, Amounts of 1-2' with Localized amounts maybe up to 3' in DRIFTS from Central Jersey through to Boston and Southern New England.

BLIZZARD WATCHES/WARNINGS ARE UP! FOLKS THIS MEANS WINDS OF 3-40MPH GUSTS TO 50MPH OR MORE!

TIMING - Light snow will arrive Monday 1AM, MEANING TONIGHT! Lasting through tomorrow afternoon, 1-3" most likely, then a LULL in the precipitation, then light snow turning to heavy snow Monday night, 8-12", HEAVIEST snow Tuesday morning through afternoon an addition 8-12" OR MORE will not be UNEXPECTED OR UNCOMMON I THINK! BLIZZARD CONDITIONS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

MORE UPDATES COMING IN AN HOUR!

********SATURDAY EVENING UPDATE - GUYS ANOTHER POTENTIAL STORM ON THE WAY*********

********SATURDAY EVENING UPDATE - GUYS ANOTHER POTENTIAL STORM ON THE WAY*********

ONE STORM DONE, AND ANOTHER ON THE WAY! 

A Clipper will be moving through the area Sunday Night into Monday, and at the same time a Coastal Storm will be moving up the coast. NOW, when they intersect there is a HUGE POTENTIAL for them to BOMB and create a pretty darn big storm. 

RIGHT NOW, timing would be Monday Afternoon through Tuesday Night, POSSIBLY Wednesday Morning.

POTENTIAL IS BIG HERE FOLKS - MOST MODELS AGREEING ON A HUGE SNOW. GRANTED, A LOT CAN CHANGE IN THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS, ********SO THIS IS IN NO WAY A FORECAST*******

JUST A HINT - THAT IF THE 3 DIFFERENT MODELS (WHO ARE MORE OR LESS IN AGREEMENT) #'S PAN OUT - WE COULD BE LOOKING AT QUITE A HISTORIC STORM FOR ANYBODY EAST OF THE HUDSON RIVER.

THERE WILL BE NO QUESTION ABOUT RAIN/SNOW WITH THIS STORM - IT WILL BE ALL SNOW IF IT COMES TO FRUITION. 

KEEP AN EYE OUT ON THE UPDATES COMING FROM THIS PAGE.

OTHER NEWS - INTENSE COLD COMING, Guys this could DEFINITELY rival the cold we saw a few weeks ago. Arctic Front will move through TOMORROW night and usher in a potential 15 DAYS OF WELL BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS!....

Get ready - WINTER HAS STARTED!!!

**********************FORECAST*********************

TONIGHT - Rain/snow showers ending before midnight, colder in the low to mid 20's - WATCH FOR BLACK ICE! ANY MELTED SNOW/WATER WILL HAVE A CHANCE TO FREEZE.

SUNDAY - Sunny, Highs in the low to mid 30's and dropping

HAVE A GREAT NIGHT FOLKS!

********MIDDAY SATURDAY UPDATE************

VERY HAPPY TODAY AS I THINK I NAILED THAT FORECAST IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION TYPES AND AMOUNTS, TOTAL SNOWFALL HERE AT MY HOUSE WAS 6.8" IN THE DRIVEWAY NO DRIFTS AWAY FROM TREES... SO RIGHT IN THE 4-8/5-8" THAT I POSTED LAST NIGHT.

NOW...WHATS NEXT!

WELL, TEMPERATURES WILL STAY STEADY IN THE LOW 30'S TODAY, AND AS THE LOW DEEPENS A BIT MORE WE WILL GET ANOTHER LIGHT BOUT OF SNOW/RAIN/SLEET THIS AFTERNOON. - ACCUMULATIONS? PROBABLY LESS THEN AN INCH.

ARCTIC AIR WILL COME IN TOMORROW NIGHT, AND WITH IT A CLIPPER - NOW, THIS CLIPPER RIGHT NOW IS SHOWING UP ON THE MODELS TURNING INTO QUITE A STORM!...IS THIS GOING TO HAPPEN? WELL, 48 HOURS OUT THINGS CAN STILL CHANGE, BUT I AM VERY CONFIDENT WE WILL GET SOME SORT OF SNOW STORM MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

THIS TIME, NO QUESTION ABOUT RAIN/SNOW AS THE STORM WILL HAVE PLENTY OF ARCTIC AIR, AND WILL HAVE DYNAMIC COOLING AS IT DEEPENS.

SHOULD I SAY BLIZZARD? HINT HINT....

ANYWAY MORE DETAILS LATER.

HAVE A GREAT DAY FOLKS AND BE SAFE!

*******TUESDAY NIGHT UPDATE, BIG ONE**********

OK, COUPLE OF THINGS GOING ON HERE....AS OF NOW THIS IS WHERE WE STAND:

1. I DO NOT THINK CLIPPER TOMORROW WARRANTS A SNOW MAP...AS OF NOW. HOWEVER, IF I SEE THAT WE DO NEED ONE TOMORROW I WILL LET YOU KNOW - IT JUST IS SO WEAK AND TO THE SOUTH OF US, The energy will transfer very quickly to a developing coastal storm (missing us)...I WOULD BE SURPRISED IF WE GET AN INCH AT THIS POINT....THERE ARE POTENTIAL WAYS THIS COULD CHANGE - BUT THE MODELS SEEM PRETTY CONCISE AT THIS POINT IN TIME, and My own thinking does too.

2. We have a VERY possible major storm for this weekend, Saturday Night into Sunday. NOW, at this point...IT COULD ALL CHANGE...I mean the way the models have been acting, tomorrow we could wake up and its gone - but...as of now, it is on the 3 Major models...and all more or less in consensus. So...not going to present specifics, but general Idea:

A pocket of energy will cross into California over the next couple of days and make its way into the gulf where it will form a fairly strong low pressure System. At the same time a fairly strong upper level disturbance will be crossing Southern Canada. Energy will "drop" from this disturbance as our storm moves north from the gulf and will help it rapidly intensify off the Carolina's Coast. It will LIKELY take a NE track while rapidly intensifying off of Long Island and up through the Cape/Nantucket. This storm HAS the potential to be very strong, big winds, and possible big snows...all dependent on its track. We do want it to move west a teeny bit...but NOT too much. We do NOT want it to go east.

So, we will keep the updates coming on this! Models are hinting at an event next week...that's all for now on that. FOR THOSE OF YOU WHO ARE MORE INTO THE SPECIFICS, THE PICTURES POSTED BELOW EXPLAIN IT IN DETAIL!.

***********ALL MAPS/PICTURES COURTESY OF WEATHERBELL/RYAN MAUE*********

****************************FORECAST***********************

WEDNESDAY- Highs in the High 20's to maybe low 30's...Cloudy becoming cloudier, light snow/snow showers developing in the afternoon/late afternoon continuing through the night on and off. Accumulations a dusting to an inch IF we are lucky at this point

THURSDAY - Highs in the low to mid 30's, Snow showers in the morning MAYBE will lead to mostly sunny skies...few clouds probably too.

FRIDAY - Highs in the High 20's to low 30's, partly cloudy on and off.

CHECK BACK FOR UPDATES ON THE POSSIBLE STORM!

********MONDAY NIGHT UPDATE********

*****CONTINUE TO WATCH OUT FOR ANY STANDING WATER FREEZING UP TONIGHT, AND ON UNTREATED SURFACES******

So what do we have going this week!?...Read below and find out smile emoticon

- Clipper will march through the region Wednesday Afternoon through early Thursday Morning. Exact track is still on the table somewhat for Snowfall amounts. No doubt that we will get some SNOW, the question is how much at this point, as is usual with clippers we likely wont know until right as it happens, so keep an eye on the page!

- Hints at a major pattern change this week to the "Snowy" pattern we have all been waiting for. Again the way this winter has been, we could see this change...but I have a feeling not this time.

- The models are HINTING at some sort of Major storm for next week, Monday/Tuesday, again can change any minute..but it is on the table for something to happen, what is not known yet as it is still far out.

- SO did you like the warmup? What you dont remember it!? Well it happened!!!! Get ready to go back into cold cold.

************************FORECAST**************************

TUESDAY - Highs in the low to mid 30's, partly cloudy and winds diminishing from today.

WEDNESDAY - Highs in the High 20's to very low 30's MAYBE. Snow showers/light snow developing in evening and lasting throughout the night into Thursday Morning. This is all I am going to say right now. First precipitation map to come out tomorrow night.
THURSDAY - Highs in the low 30's, snowshowers/light snow in the morning will give way to partly cloudy skies. Maybe a bit of wind.

FRIDAY - Sunny in the High 20's to low 30's Maybe.