Thursday Night Weather Update - Storm after storm coming! Snow? Noppe!

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Updated: 0220z/22:20/10:19PM

-----------------------------------FORECAST---------------------------------

TONIGHT - Some passing rain showers will spread light rain over the area, otherwise wind getting a bit windier lows in the high 40's maybe into low 50's.

FRIDAY - WARM! Folks I do think we got a GOOD run at 65-70°!!! Now...beggars cannot be choosers, so we do have a storm coming, Nice big storm! Rain showers on and off throughout the day, becoming more steady during the night Friday. Snow with this system will stay WAY to the north near Canadian Border.

SATURDAY - One storm leaves, another comes! Partly cloudy, windy as our fairly large Friday storm moves out...clouds moving in and out. Highs in mid 40's.

SUNDAY - ANOTHER system comes through, Stationary front (tad anafrontal) setup right over NYC or just to the north, where this sets up will be key...whoever is north of it gets bad weather, south good...etc you know the drill. More on this Friday. Highs mid 40's maybe into 50's.

--------------------------FORECAST DISCUSSION------------------------

Many many storms are coming! But is winter over? I am saying - if you live South of Boston - Albany line, for the most part our winter is over...maybe some snow will fall but most likely nothing accumulating anymore until next season! Does that mean spring is here? NO! The Jet is beginning its transition to its normal Spring-Summer position, but we still have plenty of chances for well below average temperatures. NOW, when will the jet change? Still looking at a target period of April 10-13 and after is when we will start looking spring-like.

In the meantime, A very powerful storm will pass over the area tomorrow afternoon/night, which if it was 100 miles more south and with arctic air would be a massive blizzard....unfortunately not the case. SO, very windy as this is a strong and tightly packed system tomorrow and into Saturday night.

Saturday is the day between systems as we get ready for another system to set up over us...this one will be a stationary front that will set up somewhere in the immediate area around NYC...somewhat Anafrontal as the precipitation will be behind the front. Whoever stays south of that front will get nice weather - north of it bad weather. Its a battle of Ossining getting rain and (maybe) some sleet and Irvington getting blustery cloudy skies.

Temperatures for the next few weeks will roller coaster between 30's - 40's and 50-60's even 70° as the jet transitions. Just like rollercoaster November, we now get Rollercoaster April as seasons change.

****WINTER RECAP coming This WEEKEND! and SPRING OUTLOOK coming ALSO this weekend***

HAVE A GREAT NIGHT GUYS!

**********8PM Update Monday**********

Total snow for today was 2.9" - on the LOW side of our 2-5" Forecast, but still within that. Boston on the other hand, and areas around there - THEY are the winners. Approaching 6-7'+ of snow on the ground up there!!

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Rest of the night should start to clear out a bit, any light snow/sleet/ice will end by midnight. Temperatures will go down in the Highs teens/low 20's.

TOMORROW - Clouds will continue to clear out, Highs around freezing, WATCH for ice that may have formed overnight.

WEDNESDAY - Mostly Sunny, Highs in the High 20's to very low 30's.

THURSDAY - Next possible storm? Could evolve into a biggie, but for now 2-4" ish of snow late Thursday through Friday morning. Watch this carefully though because we could be in for a big storm.

Next storm after that would be for the weekend, and also could be a BIG one.

INTENSE, BRUTAL and coldest air of the season coming starting Thursday into the weekend. Highs could possibly barely reach the 20's, with lows well below 0°. We shall know specifics later, but seriously cold air coming.

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Have a great night guys!!!

*****5:45PM WINTER STORM UPDATE FOLKS ITS COMING FOR US!!!*****

Remy and I have been following the storm all day long, and we have a few minor changes in the forecast. Snowfall amounts, posted in the map below by Remy, are mostly the same as before, but what has changed for the WORSE is the ICE. SIGNIFICANT ICING is now likely in the lower and mid Hudson Valley, Northern New Jersey, and Southwestern Connecticut. Ice accretion in these areas will range from 1/4"-1/2", which is very dangerous for travel. North and south of the these areas, ice accretion will range from .10"-.25".

The storm, which up until the 18z run had was trending north, trended slightly south again on the last run, meaning slightly higher snow accumulations which will be reflected in the snow map. The storm, however, has also strengthened more than expected leading to an increase in the ice forecast
as well.

The heaviest of the snowfall will occur between 11PM and 5AM tonight, when snowfall rates may approach 2" per hour. Between 5AM and 8AM, the snow will mix with and/or change to sleet and freezing rain from south to north and continue until about 3PM when it will change back to light snow. TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS POSTED ON MAPS BELOW, SORRY FOLKS, SOUTH OF NYC THIS IS NOT YOUR STORM! - NEW ENGLAND - DOUBLE WHAMMY!!!!
Do not take this storm lightly folks. If you are going to a Super Bowl party tonight, try to be home before midnight.

IF ANYTHING CHANGES WE WILL PROVIDE UPDATES AS NEEDED. OTHERWISE, ENJOY THE SUPERBOWL AND STAY SAFE FOLKS!!!

*********WEDNESDAY EVENING WEATHER UPDATE**********

As Always, THANKS for following the page/blog and supporting us. Be sure to spread the word about us!!!

EASTERN NEW ENGLAND AND LONG ISLAND DIGGING OUT FROM THE "EPIC" STORM...REPORTS FROM 20" TO OVER 36" IN SOME PLACES. MORE SNOW ON THE WAY FOR SOME OF THEM TOO!
NOW, onto the weather!! We have a couple of key events heading our way...first one tomorrow night!!!

- First event - a clipper will pass to the North, a general Coating to an INCH, MAYBE 2" FOR NOW, but I am watching this closely as we could end up with a situation similar to a couple weeks ago with that clipper on the Friday morning when schools should have had a delay.....if you remember! AREAS TO THE NORTH EAST, Boston, Mass, CT, 3-6" IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS CLIPPER. MAINE - BOY YOU GOT WINTER STORM WARNINGS UP ALREADY, 6+" ON THE WAY!

- SECOND event, BIGGER, as of now for SUNDAY - MONDAY. We will have a storm developing in the West that will move East and either pass to the North OR south of us - right now, to the south, but the models are waffling around so we shall have to wait a few days before going to specifics. TRACK will be important as this could be rain or snow or mix or rain to snow, vise versa.

- THIRD EVENT, FAR OUT, but a POSSIBLE storm coming up next Thursday ish. All I am gonna say right now.

COLD WILL CONTINUE TO GRIP THE NORTHEAST, HIGHS ON AVERAGE 2-6° BELOW AVERAGE, WITH SOME SHOTS OF MUCH COLDER AIR IN BETWEEN AT LEAST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF WEEKS. 

A VERY ACTIVE PATTERN, SO KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR UPDATES FROM DILLON AND I.

*********FORECAST**********

TONIGHT - FRIGID in the single digits, wind chills MAY and very well COULD reach into the Negatives, any clouds should move out - but not for long.

THURSDAY - Highs right around 30° or less, especially as you get N/NW of NYC. Coastal areas a bit warmer as wind from the NE dies down a bit. Light Snow/Snow showers developing during the night, a coating to an inch maybe 2" for now - will know more tomorrow and will update y'all accordingly. SNOW MAP BELOW.

FRIDAY - Morning snowshowers/light snow will lead to partly cloudy maybe sunny skies in the afternoon, Highs in the LOW 30'S, again progressively colder as you get North and West of NYC. 

SATURDAY - COLDER, Highs in the LOW 20's. Sunny.

Snow map below for the CLIPPER, PLUS a map of snow totals from the blizzard. You can see who got the gold!

*******MIDDAY UPDATE FOLKS - THIS IS GOING TO BE A BIG ONE-*******

BRIEF UPDATE NOW, BIGGER ONE WITH 12Z EURO, AND FULL ONE THIS EVENING ONCE ALL MODELS OUT.

***I WOULD START MAKING SURE YOU HAVE GAS, FOOD, WATER, A GENERATOR THAT WORKS (IF YOU HAVE ONE ALREADY), GAS FOR SNOWBLOWERS, SALT, SHOVELS....ALL HANDS ON DECK??-****

First snow map will go out with the 12z Euro, but JUST to give you an idea, Amounts of 1-2' with Localized amounts maybe up to 3' in DRIFTS from Central Jersey through to Boston and Southern New England.

BLIZZARD WATCHES/WARNINGS ARE UP! FOLKS THIS MEANS WINDS OF 3-40MPH GUSTS TO 50MPH OR MORE!

TIMING - Light snow will arrive Monday 1AM, MEANING TONIGHT! Lasting through tomorrow afternoon, 1-3" most likely, then a LULL in the precipitation, then light snow turning to heavy snow Monday night, 8-12", HEAVIEST snow Tuesday morning through afternoon an addition 8-12" OR MORE will not be UNEXPECTED OR UNCOMMON I THINK! BLIZZARD CONDITIONS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

MORE UPDATES COMING IN AN HOUR!

Friday Night discussion and Forecast for Weekend storm, SNOW Forecast map

BOY DO WE HAVE AN INTERESTING STORM COMING!

OK, Here is the deal...I am looking at 4 different models right now and ALL of them are telling me one thing, while the websites you might be going on like weather.com might be telling you the complete opposite of what I am about to forecast for tomorrow. I am NOT saying these sites are wrong, but what I am seeing on the models and how I am interpreting it is telling me we are in for a whole different story then what they say! I will explain this below. 

Step #1 - Storm has already formed in the South/mid area of our country over Texas and will continue to move NE over the Great Lakes and join up with a small system that is dropping down from Farther North. As it moves through those lakes it will intensify, and have the opportunity to start bringing in warmer air. 

Step #2 - COLD AIR! YESS! TONS OF IT AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM, AND TONS BEHIND! The PROBLEM is the Area of High pressure that we need to just sit put and let that cold air stay will be moved and decimated by the system, which WILL allow it to bring in the warmer air at the surface during the NIGHT on Saturday into Sunday night. The Southern Jet will help with this too. SO, Start as some Snow/Icey/Slushy mix as the cold and dry air that is already around will be cold enough for snow, and then as the colder air is replaces by warmer moist air in the evening of tomorrow it will turn over to rain for the night and into Sunday, and move out Sunday night...Sound like a plan??!
 

SO HERE IS MY FORECAST:

TONIGHT - COLD in the mid 20's, clear becoming quite cloudy.

TOMORROW - Cloudy in the morning, SNOW most likely starting lunch time to 2pm IT COULD COME IN HEAVY and be quite nasty until the evening!!! Highs low to mid 30's, colder to the North and West. Areas North of Hudson, Windham/Kingston area...It WILL be not FUN to be OUT up there!!!

TOMORROW NIGHT - Changeover to Sleet mid evening hours and all over to rain by 9pm for ALMOST ALL even up into Northern NY and Southern New England. Nighttime temps will rise to MID to HIGH 30'S as the system brings in all the warm air and continues its trek.

SUNDAY - Highs rising into low to mid 50's for almost all up even past Albany then into 40's north of there. Rain and maybe some Thunder in the morning will begin to clear out of the Hudson valley area in the afternoon, nighttime for areas east of NY.

MONDAY - COLDDDD FRONTS MOVE IN and Probably bring some of the coldest, if not the coldest air of this season with it! Monday wont be AS cold Highs in the low to mid 30's

TUESDAY - Highs in the mid 20's...Probably a clipper in the afternoon evening, usually clippers bring 2-4, 3-5" of snow...so we shall see!

Thanks again to Weatherbell and Dr. Maue for the AMAZING MAPS AND GRAPHICS!

********TUESDAY NIGHT FORECAST/DISCUSSION, UPDATES ON WINTER STORM FOR WEEKEND...BIGGIE!***************

-POTENTIAL FOR A [BIG?] WINTER(Y) Type storm coming onto the short term models for this weekend, Saturday Night through Sunday night...maybe just maybe into Monday morning. DETAILS BELOW
- Tug Hill area off of Lake Ontario, Watertown area - LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCHES/WARNINGS IN EFFECT UNTIL FRIDAY MORNING. I would Not be surprised if you guys see anywhere from 1-2 feet or MORE in the persistent bands. So ENJOY IT, IF YOU ARE A SNOW LOVER...I WISH I WAS THERE I KNOW THAT!

- The Euro models AND the GFS are hinting at a MAJOR COLD SHOT in the 6-10 day period from now, I am talking 25+ degrees below average, possibly having a 0* day in NYC...I AM NOT SAYING THIS WILL HAPPEN, HOWEVER, IT IS SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE OUT THAT A BIG COLD SHOT MAY BE COMING...
**********WINTER STORM DETAILS for the Scenario I deem likely AT THIS POINT*******
STEP #1 Energy from the storm that will be affecting the Midwest and parts of the West Coast on New Years will move across the country while another area of low pressure that will bring some snow to the Northern Plains and North West drops down to the great lakes. THESE TWO SYSTEMS MERGE, and form what we weather weenies call "Lake Cutters" Basically the system will cut across the lake, and gather moisture, intensifying greatly...

STEP #2 The storm will LIKELY take this more NORTHERLY track (Although I think it will be further south, MORE COLD) and Consequently, as it moves through the area, it will suck in warm air from the south. SO AGAIN, ALONG THOSE COASTAL REGIONS...WATCH OUT IT WILL MOST LIKELY BE A MORE WET THAN SNOWY STORM, MORE ICEY TOO....HOWEVER:
1. As the storm makes its way through the area, it will bring in the warmer air from the south, however for a brief period of time..SO, even if it does get up to LOW 40's during middle of day, the storm will still be around later AND there will be PLENTY of cold air aloft for it to deal with - therefore, I think we are in for a more snowy event then we think....BUT...lets stick to more rain for now.

STEP #3...The system will move out of the area by Sunday night, leaving us MUCH colder as it brings in the cold air behind it. 

GUYS, I AM VERY WORRIED ABOUT THIS SYSTEM...The models are treating it as basically a "FRONTAL" system moving through the area, like a cold front...BUT IT IS NOT THAT! FURTHERMORE, the models are trying to "tear" the system apart as it moves through Western New York because of the INTENSE High pressure to the north of the system...I DO NOT THINK THIS WILL HAPPEN, AND THINK THE SYSTEM WILL TAKE A SLIGHTLY MORE SOUTHERN TRACK and CONSEQUENTLY be a colder storm for everybody.

One thing of IMPORTANCE, and of great interest...The NAO, which many people look to when they want to know when cold may be coming is NOT TO BE TRUSTED RIGHT NOW.... Last couple of weeks we had unusually HIGH temperatures and the NAO went NEGATIVE (Usually goes POSITIVE for Warmer Temps)...NOW we are getting colder and the NAO is going POSITIVE!...So, wacky things going on! Lets wait until mid February before we look at it as an Indicator of Warm/cold. 
OK ENOUGH BLABBER RIGHT NOW!

*********************FORECAST****************************

TONIGHT - COLLDDDD in the low 20's to High teens in the Northern Suburbs and interior NY...Along the coast a tad warmer. Clear, maybe some passing clouds.

WEDNESDAY/NEW YEARS EVE - Highs JUST about Freezing, again colder to the North and interior NY, warmer along the coast, sunny...a slight wind.

THURSDAY - Around the same temps, windy

FRIDAY - A TAD warmer, in the mid 30's, Sunny still windy.

PICS EXPLAINING THE WHOLE THING!

HAVE A NICE NIGHT FOLKS! And a HAPPY NEW YEARS!

Friday Night update, Forecast and Discussion

LONNNGGG time no see! Sorry about the lack up weather related updates...was on vacation up in Quebec skiing and did not have time or my computer to make these forecasts!. SO...first things first a few notes.

- You WILL NOT be seeing any more maps from the European Models on the blog or this weather page, at least for now unless I can figure something out. The Euro license that the site I get the maps from has prohibits me from copying the images to show you guys...SO, I will still talk about them, but for now no maps.

-PLEASSSE.. If you have not already, go take a look at our blog! Every post is the same, but we can do much more with how the posts look, and pictures...overall giving you a better experience. So head on over to weatherinthehud.blogspot.com and SUBSCRIBE!

- MILD weekend! The Polar vortex is reorganizing itself, and as well thanks to a POSITIVE NAO (partially) the Jet stream will favor a more northern POSITION allowing High pressure to build over the area and let in mild air from the gulf. 

- The AMOSPHERE IS IN A HUGE TRANSITION PHASE right now...what I believe, going through the models, and what many other people are looking at right now is a return of the pattern we saw in November, the cold and storminess...but more winter still...SO, Over next 2 weeks let this pattern sink in and then I am still a firm believer in that winter will take hold...to many things telling me to think otherwise at the moment.

**********FORECAST****************

TONIGHT - MILD, comparatively. Lows in the High to mid 30's. 

SATURDAY - EVEN WARMER, Highs near 50*, partly sunny...few clouds here and there.

SUNDAY - We get sort of tricky here...will a wave develop off the coast for Monday and give us some snow? We will have to see.. For now Highs in the mid 40's, cloudy with some showers on and off. 

COLD COMES SUNDAY NIGHT.

Have a great day folks!