Weather in the Hud with Dillon and Remy: weather update

Monday, March 23, 2015

Monday Night Weather Update

*Sorry for lack of posts, Dillon and I have been extremely busy with research work*

-Updated: 0145z/21:45/09:45PM

----------------------------------FORECAST----------------------------------

TONIGHT - Lows near 20°, partly cloudy, clearing though.

TUESDAY - Mix of sunshine and clouds highs in the high 30's to maybe 40°.

WEDNESDAY - Some afternoon showers possible as a warm front passes through. Highs in the low to mid 40's.

THURSDAY - Maybe some spotty showers in the morning, otherwise highs in the mid to high 40's

FRIDAY - Cold front passes through in the morning bringing a chance of some showers maybe some snow Friday night we shall see, highs in the high 40's to maybe 50's...could get warmer we shall see.

--------------------------FORECAST DISCUSSION------------------------

Pretty transient weather over the next couple days, a couple warm and cold fronts over the next couple days will bring chances for rain showers and maybe some snow showers, or snow especially towards the end of the week.

Still looking at the possibility of more snow in the next 2 weeks. Specifically we are watching the **possible** development of a big storm that has been going on and off the models over the past several days, we shall see what goes on with that.

Longer range, still looking at below average temperatures for the next several weeks before flipping as the jet basically switches and the low pressure in the east degrades and shifts west bringing the cold to the west and building a ridge over the east bringing more warmth to our area. This will allow temperatures to move back to "normal" average temperatures. I do not think we will be seeing "above" average temps for some time.

Winter Recap Post coming on Monday of next week!

Ciao for now guys!

Thursday, March 19, 2015

Thursday Evening Weather Update SPECIAL on the Winter Storm

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Updated: 0100z/21:00/09:00PM

----------------------------------FORECAST----------------------------------

TONIGHT - Clear but getting cloudy as the night progresses on, temperatures in the low to mid 20's.

FRIDAY - Cloudy with snow arriving midday, might have some stickage issues at first but ground temps and air temps (aloft as well) will be good to support snow. Snow may be heavy at times especially between 4-6pm. This will be a heavy, wet snow guys - none of that fluffy snow we have been getting! Snow continuing into the nighttime, temperatures in the low to mid 30's.

FRIDAY NIGHT - Snow continuing and tapering off between 10pm and midnight for most east of NYC. Temps in the low 20's.

SATURDAY - Temperatures in the low to mid 40's, cloudy in the morning changing to sunny.

-------------------------FORECAST DISCUSSION-------------------------

A small area of low pressure will continue to deepen and move North/NE throughout the night, spreading rain before changing over to snow as it reaches Southern PA and the mountains of West Virginia, and overspreading snow to our area (East of NYC) By midday.

The models, especially the GFS have been pretty consistent on their ideas with this storm for several runs, and Dillon and I feel confident in our forecast. That being said, as always we will be nowcasting as the storm arrives. A key factor during this storm will be the March sun, and temperatures. Tomorrow is the Vernal Equinox, and with that comes equal day and night. While temperatures will be at or below freezing for us, for the most part, the high angle of the sun and the strength of the incoming solation will try to melt the snow. This will play the biggest part during the daytime, however, with the storm arriving a bit later now with the heaviest precipitation (Heaviest precip will be between 4-6PM LIKELY, THIS CAN CHANGE), the sun will be setting and the strength lessened - a bit. Not to say it will be negligible.

To overcome the high sun angle and strength, strong snowfall rates for a good amount of time would be required, as this would promote evaporational and dynamic cooling within the air column to keep the temperatures even cooler, and lessen the suns affect.

That being said, as we look at the soundings and cross sections during the storm, temperatures look very good to support snow, especially big fat flakes which could help accumulate faster.

As the storm happens, Dillon will monitor the Radar and provide small updates (I will be out of town, will try to update if possible) throughout the day.

Also, important to note that even though the snow will be falling by midday, there may be sticking issues causing it not to stick immediately. This should not be a huge problem, especially if we can get big snowfall rates.

Our first call snow map still applies, and is posted below.

About Us

Remy Mermelstein - I am 16 and in 10th grade at Irvington High School in Irvington, NY. My love for weather has been around all my life, starting with my absolute obsession with winter and snowstorms since I was a toddler. In addition to weather, I pursue an active life in architecture, interning at a local architects office (Website can be found HERE) and doing many community projects, building, designing and landscaping. I am pursuing a pilot’s license as well, and my knowledge and love for weather helps greatly when flying. My weather page, Weather or Not in the Rivertowns with Remy Mermelstein has been up for about a year now, and I update it at least every other day or more with the latest in weather. I study weather extensively on my own time, and am extremely active in the forums on many weather sites, my favorite being Weatherbell where the knowledge of some of the world’s greatest forecasters are available to me, as well as the massive community of meteorologists, climatologists and pure hobbyists this world has. Dillon and I are also currently working with Joe D'aleo on Science Research involving correlations and effects between the NAO/AO/AMO/PDO...etc... Every day brings a new realm of learning to us here at Weather in the Hud, and every day we learn more. So thank you for joining us here to read our forecasts! And, as always, if you have suggestions, advice about our posts, or the weather and our forecasting PLEASE tell us - we are still students and we recognize that, and want to learn as much as we can. Thank you.

Dillon Palmieri – Hi! I am a sophomore at Irvington High School in New York. Like my colleague Remy, my obsession with meteorology started at a young age when I became fascinated by tornadoes at the age of four. From there, my interest in the field expanded to winter storms, severe weather, and finally grew enough for me to want to create my own weather forecasts. Starting last spring (2014), I began officially doing weather forecasts for the public in the Hudson Valley region with Remy on our Facebook page Weather or Not in the Rivertowns. Our popularity quickly grew into hundreds of followers as our forecasts were consistently accurate and provided detailed information that would otherwise not be provided for a specific area such as the Hudson Valley. I also am currently working with Joe D'Aleo, a very well-known meteorologist employed at Weatherbell on a science research project studying the effects of the AMO, PDO, NAO, and AO on global climate. I wish to thank you for visiting our site and please know we welcome any and all input from our followers to make our site better.