Monday Evening Update - Quick Rain Update

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Updated: 0055z/20:55/08:55PM

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TONIGHT - Temperatures going down to upper 40's, a bit windy with rain showers and t-storms becoming more steady as the night wears on. WATCH for localized flooding in low spots.

TUESDAY - Steady rain should begin to taper off late morning into the afternoon, Lets keep in mind that some of the models have it sticking around past 2pm and tapering off late afternoon, clouds will stick around though clearing through the night as High pressure builds. Highs a tad warmer then today, around 60-62°

WEDNESDAY - A bit warmer, highs in the mid 60's, partly cloudy, a bit breezy, High pressure continues to build into the area.

THURSDAY - Partly cloudy, highs again in mid to upper 60's, not as windy...small chance of a shower or two but doubting it right now.

------------------------FORECAST DISCUSSION--------------------------

As waves of low pressure/shortwaves continue to move along the frontal boundary to the south of us, a more organized mass of rain showers, some t-storms and steady rain will develop tonight and last through the night into tomorrow afternoon before tapering off tomorrow night. Locally heavy rainfall will be possible, the heaviest rain should follow a line from Philly --> NYC northern Suburbs --> Boston before it all ends. CURRENTLY here in Irvington we have recorded 1.03" rain today, and 2.79" rain yesterday (sunday) bringing our total for this system to 3.82"...BASED on the current models, and meso-analysis of the system, I really do think along that line mentioned above, another 1 to 2" of rain before Wednesday will not be uncommon, with totals from the system coming close to or exceeding 5".

 

 As of yesterday morning at 10am, we were at 33% the normal precipitation for the month of May. By midnight last night, we had jumped to 94% of our normal precipitation for May, so that was good good catch up, although ideally it would have been better to have had it spread out over the entire month.

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Oki doki, watch for flooding tomorrow in low spots, enjoy the cool weather, and remember umbrellas! Have a nice night smile emoticon

Sunday Evening Weather Update - Nice week ahead for the most part!

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Updated: 2350z/19:50/07:50PM

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TONIGHT - Lows in the mid 40's for most everybody, Clear but getting a bit cloudy towards morning.

MONDAY - Small chance of a spotty shower in the morning, but probably not. Clouds in the morning will clear out, highs in the low 60's for most, nice breeze as well.

TUESDAY - Morning will feature light rain, maybe a thunderstorm or two before clearing out by afternoon, Highs in high 50's to maybe low 60's.

WEDNESDAY - Highs in the high 50's, mostly sunny with some passing clouds likely.

---------------------------FORECAST DISCUSSION-----------------------

First off, Dillon and I hope that you liked our 2015 Spring Outlook! If you have any questions - come ask away. Spring is an interesting period as it a changing season and we often go up and down in the weather during it. So lets enjoy it!

Pretty nice week coming up for the most part, mild weather in the high 50's to low 60's for most of the week should work out nicely. A cold front will pass through the area Tuesday morning into the afternoon and that will bring some showers and possibly a t-storm with it, and then High pressure will build over the area getting into Wednesday and Thursday, keep in mind this is rather cold air coming down from Canada..it should stay mild, but still below average temperatures for this period. This will stick around until Friday night, as another cold front begins to come into the area for Saturday bringing our next chance at some rain.

Some Highlights
-Rain Tuesday Morning
-Possible Rain Saturday night into Sunday
-Another storm possible early next week.

I have below the 10 day GFS total precipitation totals, the South has some pretty impressive #'s down there, some places near New Orleans approaching the 10" mark. Most of this will fall late this week, would not be surprised of reports of flooding. Of course California is bone dry....we should see that change in the coming months!

Wednesday Evening Weather Update - Yucky weather Will end soon!

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Updated: 2320z/19:20/7:20PM

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TONIGHT - A few passing showers is possible around NYC and Northern Suburbs tonight, while a wave of low pressure moves to the north and brings sleet wet flakes on the CT/MA border and heavier snow North and Northeast in Interior Northern New England. Temps in the mid 30's to high 20's in Maine.

THURSDAY - Cloudy, maybe a few rain showers on and off throughout the afternoon. Highs in the mid 40's.

FRIDAY - Partly to mostly cloudy with a chance of scattered thunderstorms in the morning and afternoon, very good chance of getting well into the 60's on this day, 60-65° seems very plausible and maybe even close to 70°.

SATURDAY - Sunny with clouds moving in and out...so lets say partly to mostly cloudy? Highs in mid 40's to maybe 50°.

-------------------------FORECAST DISCUSSION-------------------------

Highlight of the day...SEVERE WEATHER! Ya not here, but man do we have some interesting stuff going on out in the Plains. What we got is a stalled out frontal Boundary going right across the country from Colorado to Ohio to the Carolina's and to us. You can see it in the pictures I have below. This stalled out boundary also happens to be right smack on the edge of the Pacific jet, and it started ushering in waves of low pressure and NRG and it just keeps on giving wink emoticon. So we get a frontal boundary, a jet giving tons of moisture off the Pacific, warm gulf air being sucked up north, Cold air to the North of the Front...recipe for disaster!

So today we got the nice frontal boundary out west draping through ESE Kansas, west Oklahoma, western Texas and into Missouri. Along with it we have the dry-line located right to its west. Advantage today is that there is little warm air aloft along the dry-line, and Lapse rates, CAPE, wind shear among other items are inline and good for spawning severe thunder storms and tornado's. We can see several areas in SE Kansas, Missouri, even a bit in Kentucky where we have supercells forming. Lets see if we can get a tornado outta one. One thing that was noted is that with little convection over last night and today, the actual frontal boundary lifted north a tad. So, NCEP and other sites have changed their ideas a bit north as well with it. Main show starts this evening and into the nighttime (Late afternoon for them in the plains) as the main bulk of NRG comes in behind the initial upper level disturbance. If winds back off and stay back as the Upper low deepens this afternoon, then thats when we start really seeing the tornado's form. But one step at a time.

NOW, for us here in the NE...the jet will continue to bring in waves of low pressure until Friday night as it all moves out and the HP to our north begins to back off and let the jet resume to its normal moving position. Things should really start to warm up next week, looking like multiple days into the 60's and maybe 70's...do we even see an 80° day late next week? Could be!

CIAO for now!

Friday Night Weather Update

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Updated: 0115z/21:15/09:15PM

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TONIGHT - Cloudy with some spotty showers possible, then as cold air filters through changing over to some snow showers. Lows near 30°.

SATURDAY - Snow showers/light snow developing in the morning around 9-10 and lasting throughout the day on and off, light accumulation, more as you get East and on LI. See map below.

SUNDAY - Sunny, highs in the low 40's.

MONDAY - Highs in the mid 40's, sunny, maybe a scattered shower.

--------------------------FORECAST DISCUSSION------------------------

Active day on Saturday! An Upper air disturbance will move across the area tonight and interact with a developing coastal storm tomorrow spreading snow showers/light snow back to just about the Hudson River, with accumulations of 2-4" through SE New England, maybe even some localized 3-6" on Long Island not impossible!

Sunday through Tuesday should be nice, sunny or partly cloudy highs in the mid 40's maybe into 50's as High Pressure settles over the area.

A couple clippers to watch for Wednesday and Thursday maybe, and still watching a potential biggie storm for Easter weekend. Whether or not it is rain or snow or both is still to be decided, and we will not talk about it in depth until Wednesday or Thursday at the least.

Monday Night Weather Update

*Sorry for lack of posts, Dillon and I have been extremely busy with research work*

-Updated: 0145z/21:45/09:45PM

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TONIGHT - Lows near 20°, partly cloudy, clearing though.

TUESDAY - Mix of sunshine and clouds highs in the high 30's to maybe 40°.

WEDNESDAY - Some afternoon showers possible as a warm front passes through. Highs in the low to mid 40's.

THURSDAY - Maybe some spotty showers in the morning, otherwise highs in the mid to high 40's

FRIDAY - Cold front passes through in the morning bringing a chance of some showers maybe some snow Friday night we shall see, highs in the high 40's to maybe 50's...could get warmer we shall see.

--------------------------FORECAST DISCUSSION------------------------

Pretty transient weather over the next couple days, a couple warm and cold fronts over the next couple days will bring chances for rain showers and maybe some snow showers, or snow especially towards the end of the week.

Still looking at the possibility of more snow in the next 2 weeks. Specifically we are watching the **possible** development of a big storm that has been going on and off the models over the past several days, we shall see what goes on with that.

Longer range, still looking at below average temperatures for the next several weeks before flipping as the jet basically switches and the low pressure in the east degrades and shifts west bringing the cold to the west and building a ridge over the east bringing more warmth to our area. This will allow temperatures to move back to "normal" average temperatures. I do not think we will be seeing "above" average temps for some time.

Winter Recap Post coming on Monday of next week!

Ciao for now guys!

Monday Evening Weather Update

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Updated: 0105z/21:05/09:05PM

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TONIGHT - Lows in the upper 30's to low 40°, cloudy with a few spotty showers after midnight as a vigorous cold front begins to move through.

TUESDAY - Warmer ahead of the cold front highs near 50° maybe a spotty shower or two, THEN as the cold front comes through - could we be looking at some snow showers or a snow squall? MAYBE...its a very vigurous change in the atmosphere. 

WEDNESDAY - Windy behind the cold front, pressure gradient very big as a wave develops offshore and High pressure settles over us. Cold too highs in mid 30's. Typical of mid to late January.

THURSDAY - Highs near 40° Mostly sunny.

--------------------------FORECAST DISCUSSION------------------------

FUN FACT: Some Places in Northern Kansas and Nebraska reached into the 80's and 90's today! Will we ever reach that? Well at least not for the next month!

A vigorous cold front will move through late tonight into tomorrow afternoon, with a small wave developing off of it. Some rain showers and some possible snow showers on and off then as the wave deepens offshore, winds will kick up from the pressure gradient.

NOW, I know A LOT of you will hate to hear this - but yes, snow is in the realms of possibility, big possibility for Friday into Saturday. Timing, precipitation, amounts, all that stuff is still to be decided. BUT, all signs are pointing to the possibility of a nice big storm. 

The NAO and AO will go negative, as will the EPO while the WPO will be near nuetral and the PNA positive. THIS IS EXACTLY WHAT WE WANT FOR A BIG STORM! Blocking should set up over Greenland, and that will help slow down the storm coming. Now the track will be very dependent as that will decide the precip type and amounts for us. Right now we want it a bit north to give us heavier snow. 

?????????P.S. - JUST A HINT, OR OBSERVATION, BUT Comparing the data for this potential storm, to that of the March 1993 Blizzard - they are looking very similar. ??????

HAVE A GREAT NIGHT GUYS!

Sunday Evening Weather Update - Quiet Week ahead!

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Updated: 0030z/20:15/08:15PM

FORECAST

TONIGHT - Mainly clear, maybe a bit of icey rain/cold showers and a few wet flakes in the morning as a system passes to the south. Highs in the low 30's.

MONDAY - Maybe some icey rain/cold showers and a few wet flakes in the morning, otherwise Cloudy in the low 40's

TUESDAY - Pretty cloudy, low 40's...not much going on.

WEDNESDAY - Warmest day this week - will we reach 50°? COULD! Highs Upper 40's to mid 50's likely, sunny.

THURSDAY - Sunny highs in the mid 40's

FRIDAY - A bit cooler, highs in the low 40's to upper 30's maybe rain/light snow developing in the nighttime as a POSSIBLE storm approaches.

FORECAST DISCUSSION

Well we got through last week did we not? 21" of new snow last week - about 6" of that melted, the rest got condensed down, added about 6-8" to our snowpack? I still have 25" on my lawn...question is how long will that last!

No real Arctic air coming this week, a relaxation in the northern jet and a buckle north in the southern jet will allow for some mild air to come north, an area of HP will help with this midweek. As a storm passes to our south TONIGHT, MAYBE a bit of icey rain/big flakes but nothing to talk about. Best days of the week probably Wednesday-Thursday, sunny and mild!

NEXT possible storm could be a BIGGIE - Winter (????) Just does NOT (????) Want to give upp! Still many details, and a lot of time for things to change, but definitely some sort of storm for the weekend. Hint - WE DO have blocking (FINALLY) and will be getting a fresh injection of Arctic Air - NOW the question is do they meet up and produce the white stuff, or miss each other - and rain? To early to tell! More updates on this later in the week!
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HAVE A G R R R EAAAA T Night!

Thursday Midday Winter Storm Update

Updated: 1700z/12:00/12:00PM

**Everything working out as expected right now guys! NWS and the other major weather outlets now scrambling to revise their forecasts - they always seem to...miss the boat shall we say?**

FORECAST

TODAY - Snow will continue for the next several hours tapering off between 4 and 6pm this evening, most likely an additional 3-6" today as a heavy band comes through from the west in response to a bit of an amplification in the system. TOTAL snowfall can be viewed on map below, but generally 4-8" in the Westchester Area. Temps steady in the low 20's, as the storm ends you will know it when you see a wall of sunshine to the NW.

TONIGHT - Bitter cold, lows in the single digits around 5-8° MUCH colder NW of NYC. Clearing out completely.

FRIDAY - Sunny, watch for some ice MAYBE, not very likely but possible. Highs in the low 20's and windy.

NOTE: Looks like the cold dry air is winning out in the Boston/New England Area (Sorry Peter!), the storm will end latest down in the Philly/Jersey area as the cold air takes over this evening 6-9pm, 4-6pm for NYC/northern Suburbs and 2-4pm in CT and Upstate NY and Boston.

Wednesday Evening Winter Storm Update *Biggie! Big Changes!*

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Updated: 0145z/20:45/08:45PM

****BIG Changes in some of the models have no moved the storm track nearly 50 miles NORTH, putting us once again in the zone for heavier snow. To give an example, the GFS went from .44" QPF to .95" QPF with .82" QPF as snow.

Dillon and me have decided however to stay on the bit of a lower end as it is only one model, and saying 4-8" with the VERY TRUE possibility of going up!!...VERY BIG possibility of this folks!

FORECAST

TONIGHT - Rain showers will transition to heavy sleet/snow around 2-3am as the storm approaches. Temperatures will continue to drop into the upper 20's tonight, 2-4" Of snow and sleet expected BEFORE dawn.

THURSDAY - Snow, heavy at times and some sleet mixing in continuing throughout the day an addition 2-4" expected, with a VERY real possibility of going up to 3-5" or more. Highs in the high 20's maybe reaching 30° - GUYS, SNOW ratios will be High, 12-15:1. Snow will taper off and end around 3-4pm and all out by late evening. TOTAL storm accumulations can be seen on the map below.

THURSDAY NIGHT - Rapid Freeze up into Friday as things start to clear up!

FRIDAY - Clear, Sunny - FREEZING Highs in the low 20's.

FORECAST DISCUSSION

So last night the models were all going south - and now back north? YEP! What is happening is the COLD AIR, the Arctic HP is coming in slower then originally thought, not allowing the storm to push south. An ana-frontal type system is now set up and making its way through the Ohio valley, precipitation on the NORTHERN side of the front and Low. This will continue to move East NE towards us and spread rain to sleet to heavy snow by dawn, most likely between 2-3am. A very strong jet streak will also move along, hopefully adding to the NRG and enhancing our snow by providing better dynamics. The Arctic HP will be following close behind.

No matter what, this will really be a Nowcast situation as it is changing a lot on the models. Looking at observations will be key. But I do believe, and so does Dillon, that this WILL be a significant system.

**LOOKING at the LATEST data, MOST of the snow would fall from after RUSH HOUR through early afternoon.****

Tuesday Evening Winter Storm Update

Updated: 0030z/19:30/07:31PM

*****Emergency Alert for the Period NOW until Tomorrow Morning*****

Guys Obviously this front thump of snow has overachieved in everyway. Currently recording almost 5" at my house, and a friend in White Plains has the same recording. White Plains Airport is at 4.9" officially as of 7pm.

Please, please be careful - now we are changing over to an Ice/Freezing Rain/Sleet Mix and it will stay like this for the next SEVERAL hours before changing to plain rain around or after midnight.

Anymore Accumulations should be between 1-3" of this mess, maybe a bit more.

FORECAST

TONIGHT - ICE/freezing rain/sleet/snow continuing before changing over around midnight to rain. Additional Accumulations 1-3" if not more. Temps around freezing.

TOMORROW - Rain and dense fog, rain may be heavy at times in the morning, but doubtfull. The GROUND will be below freezing so WATCH out for Ice!!!!! GONNA be a really MESSY morning.
A lull in the precipitation as cold front comes through and storm pulls away, our second wave forming.

TOMORROW NIGHT - Rain turning to ice to all snow by midnight and continuing, temps in the mid to high 20's.

THURSDAY - Snow in the morning through afternoon tapering off in the evening. Could be significant accumulations. Temps in the high 20's.

FRIDAY - Frigid watch for rapid freezup highs in the low 20's.

FORECAST DISCUSSION

A rapidly deepening low pressure system will continue to move across Southern Canada and take over with rain after midnight tonight. As it pulls out tomorrow a wave will form off the bucket loads of moisture along the frontal boundary (cold/warm air) Where this frontal boundary will determine the exact trend of the heaviest snows, but it seems that the Arctic Air coming behind it will be enough to suppress the axis of heaviest precipitation along NYC to Philly. We would once again be on the northern edge of the heavy (ish) snows. Right now I am calling for 3-5" with a possibility of going down and up. Dillon thinks 1-2". What should be noted is that as the storm intensifies, much like today, the snow ratios will bump up especially from the air rapidly cooling. We can expect 12:1 ratios and maybe 15:1 if lucky. Also keep in mind that the heaviest snows are NYC to Philly - NYC is less then 30 miles away. It would really not take MUCH for us to get in the heavier snows again. An example is that Yonkers has a Winter Storm Warning for 4-8" of snow, and here in Irvington we have no warning and just 2-4" of snow. Not far to move!. however as of now this is the forecast. You could say Dillon scored a "coup" I still have my doubts though!

This second half of the storm should continue into Thursday afternoon and evening. Initial first call snow map is below.

Guys, even if we do not get 8-12" with the next batch of snow - it will be very icey, very dangerous tomorrow into Thursday afternoon. This is NOT a storm to take lightly, especially because of its long duration.

Ok thats it for now! Be back later if need be

 

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7 P.M. Sunday Evening Storm/Weather Update

We thought we should try a different way of giving updates on the page...Please, please tell us if you like this way or the other way better. Your comments are key, as we do this for all of you!

FORECAST

TONIGHT - Snow, heavy at times will continue throughout the night, total accumulations between 3-6" with locally 4-8" very possible depending on where those bands set up over us. Temperatures will stay steady in high teens to low low 20's. Snow will taper off and end between 2-4am, definitely by 5am for almost all west of Hartford.

MONDAY - Clouds and possibly a few stray snow showers early will give way to mostly sunny skies behind the storm, highs in the low 30's. Winds will be a bit frisky, WNW @ 15-20mph gusts to 25mph maybe.

MONDAY NIGHT - Clear, lows in the low teens.

TUESDAY - Clear turning cloudy quickly, with likely light snow developing in the evening and maybe a big thump of front end snow as our next storm approaches...still some things to work out with the storm so more updates later on this. Highs near freezing.

WEDNESDAY - Ice/sleet probably over to all rain, again more details to workout.

FORECAST DISCUSSION

Our current storm will continue to trudge northeast tonight, the precipitation shield will eventually turn to the NE/ESE tonight. Most of the snow will end around NYC between 2-4am, definitely by 5am. Thumping will continue and maybe a bit of ice as the thermal gradient comes northward - what is happening is we get this frontal wedging, and 40-50 mph winds in the lower jet stream from the South with warm air slamming into the cold arctic air - this creates a TON of lift and perfect dynamics for the snow as the cold air is forcing that warm air straight up where it can condense and fall as snow. SO, storm totals still on key with our map from last night. a general 3-6/4-8" for most N/NE of NYC.

WE get a ONE DAY break, tomorrow before our next storm roles in. This is a difficult storm, and actually a bit of 2 storms in one. First a lake cutter will ride the St. Lawrence river, and likely give us a good front end thump of snow Tuesday night before changing over to ice/sleet then rain for Wednesday. A lull in the precip as the LC moves out..BUT we have an interesting development as the models are seeing an LP form along an ana front just to the SW of us..NOW, as this LP moves towards us, remember we will have had a cold front come through Wednesday night with the Lake Cutter - this looks to be SNOW as it comes through, and COULD dump a good amount of snow. Just to give an idea, the GFS has 16" for us in the next 5 days...9" if you take off whats falling now. The European has 13" for the same period, 8" if you take off today's snow. The Canadian has 3", the NAM has 8"...so all somewhat similar.

If there is one word to describe this week it is: WILD.

Anyway, please let us know how you like this new format, and enjoy the weather, its the only weather you got! (As Joe Bastardi always says!)

********MIDDAY UPDATE - SNOW IS COMING*******

Snow is showing up on radar but not hitting the ground yet - most likely due to the dry air. In any case light snow will begin in the next couple of hours, and will really kick up this evening into the nighttime.

We are bumping back the end time, it will be all over by the very early hours of Monday morning, most likely before rush hour.

Nothing else is changing in our forecast.

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HAVE A GREAT DAY!

*****SATURDAY 10pm UPDATE - WILD WEEK AHEAD GUYS, REALLY WILD*****

FIRST, Quick moving quick hitting THUMP of snow late tomorrow afternoon through Monday late morning. A small but somewhat potent system will move through the Ohio valley tonight into tomorrow and then across the area tomorrow evening throughout the night before moving out late Monday morning. NOW, alotta the weather sites saying 1-3" or 2-4" total...GUYS Sorry BUT NOT GONNA BE THAT WAY! Rain snow as well...Nope its gonna be all snow, MAYBE a bit of ice on the backside..

SECONDLY...Mesoscale Banding - VERY important in this storm, maybe more so then in other storms. The models are showing a large amount of southerly winds (flowing to the north) on the warm side of the Arctic air boundary...the models are showing this continue as the storm moves over us. WHERE the edge of this warm wind and cold air meet BOOM thats where we will really get that thumping. NOW the models cannot accuraterly depict this, so they are saying 4-6" (.4-.6" QPF), but wherever those bands set up could easily bring that up 4-8" or 6-10"...NOW, that could be high, Dillon and I think a safe thing to assume is 4-8" for almost all north of NYC...read map to see details

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NEXT STORM...OMG so much to talk about this, but will wait until Monday to give all the details...Timing likely Tuesday night through Wednesday night maybe into Thursday morning but that could change. It would be Snow to ice to rain to ice to snow to all snow and could be a lotta snow if this holds up - models trending colder by the day! Goodbye brief warmup!

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SOO.. still slowly creeping back to normal ISH temperatures in the next couple weeks, but the models are holding fast for below average temps at least next 40 days...soo we will keep you updated!
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TONIGHT - Cold lows in low teens to around 10°, clear, but getting cloudy.

SUNDAY - Cloudy with light snow developing between 3-6pm changing to a heavier more steady snow during the late evening through the nighttime. Highs in the mid to high 20's. WATCH out for that thumping, talked about above in the afternoon.

SUNDAY NIGHT - Snow, HEAVY at times with THUMPING possible, maybe changing to ice/sleet for a brief period at the end. The storm will be outta hear by lunchtime the LATEST in NYC, most likely between 7-9am.

MONDAY - Snow ending between 7-9am, highs in the low 30's

TUESDAY - Cloudy highs in the high 20's to low 30's...storm approaching at night, more on this later.

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HAVE A GREAT NIGHT

********WEDNESDAY EVENING 8:30PM UPDATE**********

Sorry about no update last night, Dillon and me were both very busy, and we did not feel there was enough to make a meaningful post. Its been a quiet week!

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Feels warm past couple of days right! SLOWLY, ever so slowly we are trending (barely noticeable) back to "average" temperatures...Now the question is will we get back to Average or ABOVE average? At least in the next 2 weeks - We doubt it. Maybe a few small warm ups here and there for a couple hours...but overall models trending Below to WELL below average for the next several days, into the 2-3 week margin...maybe even through the next 45 days?

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Many storms on the horizon, first big one would be Sunday to maybe Tuesday, likely Sunday night - Monday night. Right now Rain/ice to snow maybe back to rain or all snow...many details to workout too early too say much.

Tomorrow morning chance of light snow and some snow showers as a system passes to the south. Little to no accumulation for us.

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TONIGHT - Lows near 10° progressively colder North and NW of NYC. Clear but becoming cloudy as the night goes on.

THURSDAY - Possible Light snow/snow showers (Most likely some flurries - BUT) No accumulations likely. Highs in the low to mid 20's.

FRIDAY - Highs in the mid 20's, some sun some clouds.

SATURDAY - Sunny highs near 30°, overall a pleasant day smile emoticon

HAVE A GREAT NIGHT GUYS!

********MONDAY NIGHT 7:30 PM UPDATE**********

I hope your vacations were great! I know I had a fabulous time in Jamaica! AND, Dillon and I ARE VERY HAPPY with our forecast for the weekend storm - WE KNEW it would be colder and snowier...fell right on target with what we said it would do!

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Absolutely the COLDEST air of the season (This time I am pretty sure it WILL be the coldest!) coming tonight into tomorrow - tonight's lows WILL LIKELY be in the NEGATIVES for almost everybody in New England/NE north of NYC. 

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Right now looking like we have dodged 2 possible snowstorms for this week, although there is still a possibility of them coming back west on the models - WE shall wait and see!

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Snow showers/Light snow possible Thursday night??? It is a possibility!

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BRIEF warmup next Monday? We could get up to 40 or above for a couple hours! ;) then back to cold! A possible storm as well in that time period early next week.

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TONIGHT - Frigid from -3° here in Irvington to possibly below -10° in parts of Western NY and New England. Clear.

TUESDAY - 7am Temps COULD BE -15° WITHOUT THE WINDCHILL! Then it will warm up to the balmy low to mid teens IF THAT MUCH. 

WEDNESDAY - Highs in the mid to upper 20's maybe a passing snow shower in the afternoon. Otherwise Partly cloudy/sunny.

THURSDAY - Chance of light snow/snow showers in the morning through afternoon and evening maybe into the night...Little or no accumulation at this point, Highs near 20°.

HAVE A GREAT NIGHT GUYS!

********FRIDAY NIGHT 6:45 PM UPDATE*********

FIRST OFF GUYS, The Rivertowns Enterprise was NICE ENOUGH to write an Article on Dillon and me, regarding our Weather pages and Science Research. If you get the Enterprise, PLEASE read the article! Just skip the forecast for this weekend, when we made it there was NO indication of a storm for tomorrow.

THANK YOU Enterprise, THANK you to all of you who support us! Continue to spread the word, and lets get these forecasts to more and more people!

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**********PLEASE READ THIS ALL, IT IS IMPORTANT - POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS STORM COMING***********

STORM for tomorrow - VERY TRICKY folks, but Dillon and me are VERY CONFIDENT with our forecast!

A clipper moving SE off of Lake Erie will transfer its energy to a developing coastal low which will then intensify greatly SE of Long Island and move NE of Nantucket tomorrow night before moving out Late Sunday night/Monday morning for New England.

When the Clipper transfers its energy, it will be doing so more or less over or just to the south of us...essentially the trough will be extended back and slow the system down a tad as it develops throwing back a bit more moisture over us then if this did not happen.

ONCE AGAIN, EASTERN LONG ISLAND, BOSTON, EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS, AND COASTAL MAINE - YOU GUYS ARE THE BIG WINNERS WITH THIS, HOWEVER, HOWEVER, NYC AND SUBURBS, WESTCHESTER, ETC...WE HAVE A CHANCE AT SOME REAL GOOD SNOW!

Here is the thing with this storm: We have FRIGID AIR IN PLACE. We will have winds 25mph with gusts to 40mph, especially in the coastal regions. We have PLENTY of snow on the ground, most of which is fluffy and not compacted down.

DILLON AND I BOTH KNOW THAT THERE IS NO WINTER STORM WARNING UP, BUT WE FEEL THERE SHOULD BE ONE FOR THE FOLLOWING REASONS:

1. Blizzard Conditions ARE POSSIBLE during the night tomorrow.
2. SNOW RATIOS WILL BE DOUBLED OR MORE, MEANING THE 1-3" ON THE WEATHER CHANNEL CAN EASILY BE 3-6" AND WILL MOST LIKELY BE 3-6"+
3. FRIGID TEMPERATURES
4. Snow WILL be heavy at times during the night

(Am I glad I will be in Jamaica?)

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ANOTHER Potent storm on the Horizon for Tuesday/Wednesday
More details later.

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TONIGHT - Not as cold as last night but still frigid! Highs in the high single digits to low teens, Windchills could still get negative. Clouds will start to roll in as well.

SATURDAY - Snow showers in the morning will evolve into a steadier light snow through the evening, becoming HEAVY at times during the night. Winds will be HIGH guys, 25mph sustained with gusts to 40mph or more. Blowing snow, and FRIGID temperatures will give to possible Blizzard Conditions. Snow will CONTINUE throughout the night and end EARLY Sunday morning. Temperatures in the mid teens to low 20's during the day, and FRIGID during the night as another arctic shot comes through, lows in the single digits and windchill values in the negatives. SNOW RATIOS THROUGH THE ROOF!

SUNDAY - Snow ending early, winds will still be up there, windchill values possibly in the negatives especially in the morning. Clearing out throughout the day, maybe some sun by afternoon.

MONDAY - FRIGIDIDDDD Morning in the single digits to negatives, warming up to balmy low teens maybe.

TUESDAY - Another possible storm? More later on this

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ARTICLE POSTED BELOW. 

********6PM THURSDAY UPDATE********

BRUTAL, BRUTAL COLD COMING GUYS!! Highs tonight JUST ABOVE 0°, and around 5-10° in the City, plus winds gusting UP to 40mph will yield to windchills from -10 to -30°...LIKELY, real feel temps will stay around -15° TONIGHT, AND into TOMORROW as temperatures tomorrow BARELY get up to 15°, windchill's staying in the negatives.

GUYS, this means Frostbite in UNDER 5 minutes...KEEP JACKETS ON, KEEP GLOVES ON, BUNDLE UP IT WILL BE FREEZZZING!!!!

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WINTER STORM Coming for Saturday Afternoon through to Sunday Morning. The STORM, PLUS WIND, PLUS THE FRIGID TEMPS WILL GIVE A DANGEROUS SITUATION, WITH POSSIBLE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS DURING THE NIGHT, ESPECIALLY Out on Eastern Long Island, and Massachusetts, Boston, up through coastal Maine.

YES BOSTON...Another foot of snow heading your way!

GUYS, even with low(er) amounts of snow near NYC, the FRIGID temperatures will lead to 20:1 or more snow ratios...meaning the normal 3-5" becomes 6-10"+...THIS will EASILY Occur I believe.

Models have been trending a bit further SW today, and bringing the heaviest snows a bit closer...lets see if this continues, if not, an EARLY, GUYS EARLY, Estimate at snow amounts for NYC Metro area and Northern Suburbs is 3-6", which could EASILY become 6-12" with higher ratios if they hold.

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ANOTHER, More potent storm potentially coming for Tuesday, still early to tell specifics

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TONIGHT - FRIGID lows near 0°, windchills -10 to -30° even down to -40° as you get NW of NYC. Clearing out

FRIDAY - FRIGID, BRUTALLY COLD, Highs barely reaching 15°, Windchill factor well below 0°. Clear skies, windy 10-20mph

SATURDAY - Highs in the mid to high 20's maybe making it to 30°. Light snow developing in the afternoon and continuing heavier at night. Temps during the night getting colder to near 0° as another arctic blast comes through.

SUNDAY - Light snow in the morning ending likely, Highs FREEZING in the single digits to low teens. Cloudy and clearing up probably.

***GUYS, NOTE THAT THE FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND IS NOT FINAL AS THERE ARE STILL DETAILS TO BE WORKED OUT FOR THE STORM.***

********8:00PM UPDATE WEDNESDAY**********

Evening guys!!! Ok....weather changing ever day for us here in terms of whats on the models - so lets see whats going on!

- Clipper tomorrow will just be a glorified Arctic Cold front likely, as the low will pass to far to the North and it will be too dry. SO, as of now chance of snow showers and some light snow from midday through the evening and into the night possible. IF ANY accumulation, only a coating to an inch - but WILL likely be nothing big.

- Storm for the weekend still on the models, what has to be kept in mind is that it will be BRUTALLY COLD during that storm. SO, even if we only get the 3-5" that the models are saying - THAT COULD EASILY BE 6-12"+ WITH HIGHER SNOW RATIOS THAT COULD VERY WELL BE PRESENT. HOWEVER, AND A BIG HOWEVER, I am not making a forecast here for this storm as I am seeing some things on the models that are making me believe it will be a bit different - just keep in mind it could very well be a big bad storm.

- ANOTHER storm showing up on the models for Tuesday of next week...still early to really tell whats going on, but something is there.

- Another possible system after that later in the week still

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BRUTALLY cold temps coming Thursday and into the weekend AND BEYOND!! SERIOUS GUYS! COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON!

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TONIGHT - Clear lows in the low to mid teens.

THURSDAY - Highs around freezing, cloudy with snow showers possible and maybe some light snow, a coating to an inch if anything. Winds will be gusty as the Arctic front slams through in the afternoon. BRUTAL COLD AT NIGHT, LOWS IN THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS WIND CHILL IN THE NEGATIVES.

FRIDAY - Highs barely making it to the mid teens, windchill will be low too. Mostly sunny.

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HAVE A GREAT NIGHT FOLKS!

**************9:00PM UPDATE TUESDAY NIGHT*************

SO...We got several events coming up! First one for Thursday, Likely will form too far to the East for anybody to get anything of big significance. Right now likely 1-3" Thursday afternoon through Friday Morning. WE WILL Keep you posted if this changes. First snow map tomorrow night for the event.

Second event for the weekend - still far out so nothing definite, but the models are definitely showing something forming that COULD be QUITE BIG if it forms right. Picture below showing it.

Third event would be Early to middle of Next week during our vacation. Still to early to tell anything more with confidence.

Fourth event would be later in the week after the third event. Again still early to say ANYTHING with confidence - for all we know it could not even happen.

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EXTREME, AND I DO MEAN EXTREME COLD COMING FOLKS...Just to give you an idea - the models depicting temperature ANOMOLIES (So +/- of average) are saying on average the next 16 days and if not more will be -3 to -16° BELOW average!!! OR MORE!!

FIRST SHOT OF THE COLDEST AIR will be Thursday through the weekend. Folks, Lows in the negatives are possible and Highs in the single digits to low teens....get ready for the cold!!!

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TONIGHT - Cold and clear Highs in the low to mid teens, maybe 20° in NYC progressively colder as you get up to Boston and N/NW of NYC.

WEDNESDAY - Colder then today, Highs in the High 20's maybe low 30's, sunny.

THURSDAY - Mostly cloudy with light snow developing in the afternoon, Highs probably right below freezing. Snow will continue on and off through the night, most likely 1-3" with localized 2-4" possible.

FRIDAY - Maybe some light snow in the morning, then clearing out, COLLLDDD first SHOT of BRUTAL COLD AIR THURSDAY NIGHT! Highs BARELY REACHING 20° Friday. A Brisk wind will keep the windchills very low was well!!!

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Have a great night guys!!

**********8PM Update Monday**********

Total snow for today was 2.9" - on the LOW side of our 2-5" Forecast, but still within that. Boston on the other hand, and areas around there - THEY are the winners. Approaching 6-7'+ of snow on the ground up there!!

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Rest of the night should start to clear out a bit, any light snow/sleet/ice will end by midnight. Temperatures will go down in the Highs teens/low 20's.

TOMORROW - Clouds will continue to clear out, Highs around freezing, WATCH for ice that may have formed overnight.

WEDNESDAY - Mostly Sunny, Highs in the High 20's to very low 30's.

THURSDAY - Next possible storm? Could evolve into a biggie, but for now 2-4" ish of snow late Thursday through Friday morning. Watch this carefully though because we could be in for a big storm.

Next storm after that would be for the weekend, and also could be a BIG one.

INTENSE, BRUTAL and coldest air of the season coming starting Thursday into the weekend. Highs could possibly barely reach the 20's, with lows well below 0°. We shall know specifics later, but seriously cold air coming.

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Have a great night guys!!!