Monday Night Weather Update

*Sorry for lack of posts, Dillon and I have been extremely busy with research work*

-Updated: 0145z/21:45/09:45PM

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TONIGHT - Lows near 20°, partly cloudy, clearing though.

TUESDAY - Mix of sunshine and clouds highs in the high 30's to maybe 40°.

WEDNESDAY - Some afternoon showers possible as a warm front passes through. Highs in the low to mid 40's.

THURSDAY - Maybe some spotty showers in the morning, otherwise highs in the mid to high 40's

FRIDAY - Cold front passes through in the morning bringing a chance of some showers maybe some snow Friday night we shall see, highs in the high 40's to maybe 50's...could get warmer we shall see.

--------------------------FORECAST DISCUSSION------------------------

Pretty transient weather over the next couple days, a couple warm and cold fronts over the next couple days will bring chances for rain showers and maybe some snow showers, or snow especially towards the end of the week.

Still looking at the possibility of more snow in the next 2 weeks. Specifically we are watching the **possible** development of a big storm that has been going on and off the models over the past several days, we shall see what goes on with that.

Longer range, still looking at below average temperatures for the next several weeks before flipping as the jet basically switches and the low pressure in the east degrades and shifts west bringing the cold to the west and building a ridge over the east bringing more warmth to our area. This will allow temperatures to move back to "normal" average temperatures. I do not think we will be seeing "above" average temps for some time.

Winter Recap Post coming on Monday of next week!

Ciao for now guys!

Monday Evening Weather Update

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Updated: 0105z/21:05/09:05PM

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TONIGHT - Lows in the upper 30's to low 40°, cloudy with a few spotty showers after midnight as a vigorous cold front begins to move through.

TUESDAY - Warmer ahead of the cold front highs near 50° maybe a spotty shower or two, THEN as the cold front comes through - could we be looking at some snow showers or a snow squall? MAYBE...its a very vigurous change in the atmosphere. 

WEDNESDAY - Windy behind the cold front, pressure gradient very big as a wave develops offshore and High pressure settles over us. Cold too highs in mid 30's. Typical of mid to late January.

THURSDAY - Highs near 40° Mostly sunny.

--------------------------FORECAST DISCUSSION------------------------

FUN FACT: Some Places in Northern Kansas and Nebraska reached into the 80's and 90's today! Will we ever reach that? Well at least not for the next month!

A vigorous cold front will move through late tonight into tomorrow afternoon, with a small wave developing off of it. Some rain showers and some possible snow showers on and off then as the wave deepens offshore, winds will kick up from the pressure gradient.

NOW, I know A LOT of you will hate to hear this - but yes, snow is in the realms of possibility, big possibility for Friday into Saturday. Timing, precipitation, amounts, all that stuff is still to be decided. BUT, all signs are pointing to the possibility of a nice big storm. 

The NAO and AO will go negative, as will the EPO while the WPO will be near nuetral and the PNA positive. THIS IS EXACTLY WHAT WE WANT FOR A BIG STORM! Blocking should set up over Greenland, and that will help slow down the storm coming. Now the track will be very dependent as that will decide the precip type and amounts for us. Right now we want it a bit north to give us heavier snow. 

?????????P.S. - JUST A HINT, OR OBSERVATION, BUT Comparing the data for this potential storm, to that of the March 1993 Blizzard - they are looking very similar. ??????

HAVE A GREAT NIGHT GUYS!

Wednesday Evening Weather Update - Some big changes coming!

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Update: 2130z/17:30/05:30PM

FORECAST

TONIGHT - Lows around freezing, a cold front has come through already, however the actual cold air will be delayed until tomorrow.

THURSDAY - Highs in the low to mid 40's, sunny and a bit of a breeze.

FRIDAY - Highs in the low to mid 40's, sunny not as breezy.

SATURDAY - Storm time! Looks like this one will be mainly a soaker, with a bit of snow on the front end possible but little to no accumulation if anything. Still some details to workout, but it will generally be rainy all day long with heavy rain possible. Highs in the low 40's.

FORECAST DISCUSSION

What a nice week we have had!! I bet everybody has appreciated the warmer temps, snow melting and sunny skies! Well...do not get use to it! This was a "false" spring, and the overall pattern is going BACK to our stormy and cold that we experienced for much of the last 3 months. Now, it will not be AS cold..but certainly well below the average temperatures. The "target" period for this pattern will be essentially the 15th through end of March and maybe into early April.

This weekend will feature a nice storm, however, even with colder air being shot in before, it will still be too warm across the board for us to get any real snow out of it, unless you are in Maine and far northern New England - this is a mostly to all rain event.

Getting into next week however, we do see ANOTHER possible storm that could be more snow then rain.

SO...Bottom line is, if you are looking at the point-and-click websites and seeing "End of winter" or "warmer temps coming" - sorry! Not right! Winter still has a hold on us!!!!

Have a great day! and as always, I will quote the Great Joe Bastardi, "Enjoy the weather, its the only weather you got!"

Sunday Evening Weather Update - Quiet Week ahead!

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Updated: 0030z/20:15/08:15PM

FORECAST

TONIGHT - Mainly clear, maybe a bit of icey rain/cold showers and a few wet flakes in the morning as a system passes to the south. Highs in the low 30's.

MONDAY - Maybe some icey rain/cold showers and a few wet flakes in the morning, otherwise Cloudy in the low 40's

TUESDAY - Pretty cloudy, low 40's...not much going on.

WEDNESDAY - Warmest day this week - will we reach 50°? COULD! Highs Upper 40's to mid 50's likely, sunny.

THURSDAY - Sunny highs in the mid 40's

FRIDAY - A bit cooler, highs in the low 40's to upper 30's maybe rain/light snow developing in the nighttime as a POSSIBLE storm approaches.

FORECAST DISCUSSION

Well we got through last week did we not? 21" of new snow last week - about 6" of that melted, the rest got condensed down, added about 6-8" to our snowpack? I still have 25" on my lawn...question is how long will that last!

No real Arctic air coming this week, a relaxation in the northern jet and a buckle north in the southern jet will allow for some mild air to come north, an area of HP will help with this midweek. As a storm passes to our south TONIGHT, MAYBE a bit of icey rain/big flakes but nothing to talk about. Best days of the week probably Wednesday-Thursday, sunny and mild!

NEXT possible storm could be a BIGGIE - Winter (????) Just does NOT (????) Want to give upp! Still many details, and a lot of time for things to change, but definitely some sort of storm for the weekend. Hint - WE DO have blocking (FINALLY) and will be getting a fresh injection of Arctic Air - NOW the question is do they meet up and produce the white stuff, or miss each other - and rain? To early to tell! More updates on this later in the week!
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HAVE A G R R R EAAAA T Night!

Thursday Midday Winter Storm Update

Updated: 1700z/12:00/12:00PM

**Everything working out as expected right now guys! NWS and the other major weather outlets now scrambling to revise their forecasts - they always seem to...miss the boat shall we say?**

FORECAST

TODAY - Snow will continue for the next several hours tapering off between 4 and 6pm this evening, most likely an additional 3-6" today as a heavy band comes through from the west in response to a bit of an amplification in the system. TOTAL snowfall can be viewed on map below, but generally 4-8" in the Westchester Area. Temps steady in the low 20's, as the storm ends you will know it when you see a wall of sunshine to the NW.

TONIGHT - Bitter cold, lows in the single digits around 5-8° MUCH colder NW of NYC. Clearing out completely.

FRIDAY - Sunny, watch for some ice MAYBE, not very likely but possible. Highs in the low 20's and windy.

NOTE: Looks like the cold dry air is winning out in the Boston/New England Area (Sorry Peter!), the storm will end latest down in the Philly/Jersey area as the cold air takes over this evening 6-9pm, 4-6pm for NYC/northern Suburbs and 2-4pm in CT and Upstate NY and Boston.

Wednesday Evening Winter Storm Update *Biggie! Big Changes!*

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Updated: 0145z/20:45/08:45PM

****BIG Changes in some of the models have no moved the storm track nearly 50 miles NORTH, putting us once again in the zone for heavier snow. To give an example, the GFS went from .44" QPF to .95" QPF with .82" QPF as snow.

Dillon and me have decided however to stay on the bit of a lower end as it is only one model, and saying 4-8" with the VERY TRUE possibility of going up!!...VERY BIG possibility of this folks!

FORECAST

TONIGHT - Rain showers will transition to heavy sleet/snow around 2-3am as the storm approaches. Temperatures will continue to drop into the upper 20's tonight, 2-4" Of snow and sleet expected BEFORE dawn.

THURSDAY - Snow, heavy at times and some sleet mixing in continuing throughout the day an addition 2-4" expected, with a VERY real possibility of going up to 3-5" or more. Highs in the high 20's maybe reaching 30° - GUYS, SNOW ratios will be High, 12-15:1. Snow will taper off and end around 3-4pm and all out by late evening. TOTAL storm accumulations can be seen on the map below.

THURSDAY NIGHT - Rapid Freeze up into Friday as things start to clear up!

FRIDAY - Clear, Sunny - FREEZING Highs in the low 20's.

FORECAST DISCUSSION

So last night the models were all going south - and now back north? YEP! What is happening is the COLD AIR, the Arctic HP is coming in slower then originally thought, not allowing the storm to push south. An ana-frontal type system is now set up and making its way through the Ohio valley, precipitation on the NORTHERN side of the front and Low. This will continue to move East NE towards us and spread rain to sleet to heavy snow by dawn, most likely between 2-3am. A very strong jet streak will also move along, hopefully adding to the NRG and enhancing our snow by providing better dynamics. The Arctic HP will be following close behind.

No matter what, this will really be a Nowcast situation as it is changing a lot on the models. Looking at observations will be key. But I do believe, and so does Dillon, that this WILL be a significant system.

**LOOKING at the LATEST data, MOST of the snow would fall from after RUSH HOUR through early afternoon.****

Monday Evening Upcoming Storm(s) Weather Update

Updated: 0100z/20:00/08:00PM

FORECAST

TONIGHT - Pretty much clear, lows in the low teens to single digits maybe in far northern and northwest areas of NY and New England.

TUESDAY - Clear skies will give way to thickening clouds, temperatures in the high 20's to right around 32°, Snow and sleet developing in the LATE afternoon (SEE SNOW MAP), 1-3" (could change, but we doubt it) into the evening and nighttime.

TUESDAY NIGHT - Snow/sleet changing over to ice/sleet/rain and finally all rain by Wednesday morning, nighttime temps around freezing...WATCH out this could be a SERIOUS ice situation as ground is frozen, and a lot OF cold air around...

WEDNESDAY - Ice/wintry mix changing over to all rain in the morning (around rush hour probably maybe a bit sooner/later) will continue throughout the morning, may be a bit heavy at times... Should be a lull in the precipitation during the afternoon as the Initial [storm] moves out then starting again in the evening. Temps in the high 30's to low 40's.

THURSDAY - We have a BIG potential to waking up with NEW snow on the ground and snow falling, as a new wave forms off the back of the Lake Cutter and comes through Wednesday Night through Thursday afternoon/evening...We WILL have cold air in place and this could be a BIG storm...we will keep you posted.

FRIDAY - COLLD Rapid freez up Thursday night, Highs in the low to mid 20's, mostly sunny.

FORECAST DISCUSSION

We have a VERY wild week ahead! A bit of a break today and most of tomorrow before our next storm arrives. A lake cutter will form and move across the area. Since the Center of the Low pressure will be FAR to the N and W of us, it will be a mostly rain event - HOWEVER, we have plenty of cold air in place so watch out for a big THUMP of snow Tuesday evening into the night 1-3" locally 2-4" before a changeover to rain/sleet/ice into Wednesday morning then all rain Wednesday. NOW the interesting part - a brief lull in the precipitation HOWEVER, bucket loads of moisture with this system, and the models have been insistant on another wave forming along the Arctic Frontal Boundary. Cold front will come through Wednesday night, new shot of colder air, and a new wave will form to the SW of us and move ALONG that frontal boundary towards us. THIS would be our all snow event, or Rain to ALL snow event starting Wednesday night and lasting through Thursday Afternoon likely. At this point accumulations could be anywhere from 5 to 10" although that could change. WHEREVER this front boundary sets up is where the axis of heaviest snows will be. If I take an average from ALL the 6 models with snowfall maps, that gives NYC metro area and northern Suburbs 6-8" snow. A wet heavy snow too.

So keep an eye out for our posts - wild week ahead. More cold for Friday as well with a flash freeze Thursday night.

***THE SNOW MAP IS ONLY FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING***

HAVE A GREAT NIGHT!

7 P.M. Sunday Evening Storm/Weather Update

We thought we should try a different way of giving updates on the page...Please, please tell us if you like this way or the other way better. Your comments are key, as we do this for all of you!

FORECAST

TONIGHT - Snow, heavy at times will continue throughout the night, total accumulations between 3-6" with locally 4-8" very possible depending on where those bands set up over us. Temperatures will stay steady in high teens to low low 20's. Snow will taper off and end between 2-4am, definitely by 5am for almost all west of Hartford.

MONDAY - Clouds and possibly a few stray snow showers early will give way to mostly sunny skies behind the storm, highs in the low 30's. Winds will be a bit frisky, WNW @ 15-20mph gusts to 25mph maybe.

MONDAY NIGHT - Clear, lows in the low teens.

TUESDAY - Clear turning cloudy quickly, with likely light snow developing in the evening and maybe a big thump of front end snow as our next storm approaches...still some things to work out with the storm so more updates later on this. Highs near freezing.

WEDNESDAY - Ice/sleet probably over to all rain, again more details to workout.

FORECAST DISCUSSION

Our current storm will continue to trudge northeast tonight, the precipitation shield will eventually turn to the NE/ESE tonight. Most of the snow will end around NYC between 2-4am, definitely by 5am. Thumping will continue and maybe a bit of ice as the thermal gradient comes northward - what is happening is we get this frontal wedging, and 40-50 mph winds in the lower jet stream from the South with warm air slamming into the cold arctic air - this creates a TON of lift and perfect dynamics for the snow as the cold air is forcing that warm air straight up where it can condense and fall as snow. SO, storm totals still on key with our map from last night. a general 3-6/4-8" for most N/NE of NYC.

WE get a ONE DAY break, tomorrow before our next storm roles in. This is a difficult storm, and actually a bit of 2 storms in one. First a lake cutter will ride the St. Lawrence river, and likely give us a good front end thump of snow Tuesday night before changing over to ice/sleet then rain for Wednesday. A lull in the precip as the LC moves out..BUT we have an interesting development as the models are seeing an LP form along an ana front just to the SW of us..NOW, as this LP moves towards us, remember we will have had a cold front come through Wednesday night with the Lake Cutter - this looks to be SNOW as it comes through, and COULD dump a good amount of snow. Just to give an idea, the GFS has 16" for us in the next 5 days...9" if you take off whats falling now. The European has 13" for the same period, 8" if you take off today's snow. The Canadian has 3", the NAM has 8"...so all somewhat similar.

If there is one word to describe this week it is: WILD.

Anyway, please let us know how you like this new format, and enjoy the weather, its the only weather you got! (As Joe Bastardi always says!)

********6PM THURSDAY UPDATE********

BRUTAL, BRUTAL COLD COMING GUYS!! Highs tonight JUST ABOVE 0°, and around 5-10° in the City, plus winds gusting UP to 40mph will yield to windchills from -10 to -30°...LIKELY, real feel temps will stay around -15° TONIGHT, AND into TOMORROW as temperatures tomorrow BARELY get up to 15°, windchill's staying in the negatives.

GUYS, this means Frostbite in UNDER 5 minutes...KEEP JACKETS ON, KEEP GLOVES ON, BUNDLE UP IT WILL BE FREEZZZING!!!!

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WINTER STORM Coming for Saturday Afternoon through to Sunday Morning. The STORM, PLUS WIND, PLUS THE FRIGID TEMPS WILL GIVE A DANGEROUS SITUATION, WITH POSSIBLE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS DURING THE NIGHT, ESPECIALLY Out on Eastern Long Island, and Massachusetts, Boston, up through coastal Maine.

YES BOSTON...Another foot of snow heading your way!

GUYS, even with low(er) amounts of snow near NYC, the FRIGID temperatures will lead to 20:1 or more snow ratios...meaning the normal 3-5" becomes 6-10"+...THIS will EASILY Occur I believe.

Models have been trending a bit further SW today, and bringing the heaviest snows a bit closer...lets see if this continues, if not, an EARLY, GUYS EARLY, Estimate at snow amounts for NYC Metro area and Northern Suburbs is 3-6", which could EASILY become 6-12" with higher ratios if they hold.

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ANOTHER, More potent storm potentially coming for Tuesday, still early to tell specifics

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TONIGHT - FRIGID lows near 0°, windchills -10 to -30° even down to -40° as you get NW of NYC. Clearing out

FRIDAY - FRIGID, BRUTALLY COLD, Highs barely reaching 15°, Windchill factor well below 0°. Clear skies, windy 10-20mph

SATURDAY - Highs in the mid to high 20's maybe making it to 30°. Light snow developing in the afternoon and continuing heavier at night. Temps during the night getting colder to near 0° as another arctic blast comes through.

SUNDAY - Light snow in the morning ending likely, Highs FREEZING in the single digits to low teens. Cloudy and clearing up probably.

***GUYS, NOTE THAT THE FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND IS NOT FINAL AS THERE ARE STILL DETAILS TO BE WORKED OUT FOR THE STORM.***

********8:00PM UPDATE WEDNESDAY**********

Evening guys!!! Ok....weather changing ever day for us here in terms of whats on the models - so lets see whats going on!

- Clipper tomorrow will just be a glorified Arctic Cold front likely, as the low will pass to far to the North and it will be too dry. SO, as of now chance of snow showers and some light snow from midday through the evening and into the night possible. IF ANY accumulation, only a coating to an inch - but WILL likely be nothing big.

- Storm for the weekend still on the models, what has to be kept in mind is that it will be BRUTALLY COLD during that storm. SO, even if we only get the 3-5" that the models are saying - THAT COULD EASILY BE 6-12"+ WITH HIGHER SNOW RATIOS THAT COULD VERY WELL BE PRESENT. HOWEVER, AND A BIG HOWEVER, I am not making a forecast here for this storm as I am seeing some things on the models that are making me believe it will be a bit different - just keep in mind it could very well be a big bad storm.

- ANOTHER storm showing up on the models for Tuesday of next week...still early to really tell whats going on, but something is there.

- Another possible system after that later in the week still

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BRUTALLY cold temps coming Thursday and into the weekend AND BEYOND!! SERIOUS GUYS! COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON!

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TONIGHT - Clear lows in the low to mid teens.

THURSDAY - Highs around freezing, cloudy with snow showers possible and maybe some light snow, a coating to an inch if anything. Winds will be gusty as the Arctic front slams through in the afternoon. BRUTAL COLD AT NIGHT, LOWS IN THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS WIND CHILL IN THE NEGATIVES.

FRIDAY - Highs barely making it to the mid teens, windchill will be low too. Mostly sunny.

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HAVE A GREAT NIGHT FOLKS!

**************9:00PM UPDATE TUESDAY NIGHT*************

SO...We got several events coming up! First one for Thursday, Likely will form too far to the East for anybody to get anything of big significance. Right now likely 1-3" Thursday afternoon through Friday Morning. WE WILL Keep you posted if this changes. First snow map tomorrow night for the event.

Second event for the weekend - still far out so nothing definite, but the models are definitely showing something forming that COULD be QUITE BIG if it forms right. Picture below showing it.

Third event would be Early to middle of Next week during our vacation. Still to early to tell anything more with confidence.

Fourth event would be later in the week after the third event. Again still early to say ANYTHING with confidence - for all we know it could not even happen.

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EXTREME, AND I DO MEAN EXTREME COLD COMING FOLKS...Just to give you an idea - the models depicting temperature ANOMOLIES (So +/- of average) are saying on average the next 16 days and if not more will be -3 to -16° BELOW average!!! OR MORE!!

FIRST SHOT OF THE COLDEST AIR will be Thursday through the weekend. Folks, Lows in the negatives are possible and Highs in the single digits to low teens....get ready for the cold!!!

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TONIGHT - Cold and clear Highs in the low to mid teens, maybe 20° in NYC progressively colder as you get up to Boston and N/NW of NYC.

WEDNESDAY - Colder then today, Highs in the High 20's maybe low 30's, sunny.

THURSDAY - Mostly cloudy with light snow developing in the afternoon, Highs probably right below freezing. Snow will continue on and off through the night, most likely 1-3" with localized 2-4" possible.

FRIDAY - Maybe some light snow in the morning, then clearing out, COLLLDDD first SHOT of BRUTAL COLD AIR THURSDAY NIGHT! Highs BARELY REACHING 20° Friday. A Brisk wind will keep the windchills very low was well!!!

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Have a great night guys!!

**********8PM Update Monday**********

Total snow for today was 2.9" - on the LOW side of our 2-5" Forecast, but still within that. Boston on the other hand, and areas around there - THEY are the winners. Approaching 6-7'+ of snow on the ground up there!!

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Rest of the night should start to clear out a bit, any light snow/sleet/ice will end by midnight. Temperatures will go down in the Highs teens/low 20's.

TOMORROW - Clouds will continue to clear out, Highs around freezing, WATCH for ice that may have formed overnight.

WEDNESDAY - Mostly Sunny, Highs in the High 20's to very low 30's.

THURSDAY - Next possible storm? Could evolve into a biggie, but for now 2-4" ish of snow late Thursday through Friday morning. Watch this carefully though because we could be in for a big storm.

Next storm after that would be for the weekend, and also could be a BIG one.

INTENSE, BRUTAL and coldest air of the season coming starting Thursday into the weekend. Highs could possibly barely reach the 20's, with lows well below 0°. We shall know specifics later, but seriously cold air coming.

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Have a great night guys!!!

**********8:00PM UPDATE SUNDAY************

Guys, this is an extremely tricky storm to forecast - so bear with us. We are sorry for the lack of updates this weekend, we were both out of town and without computers - hard to do updates without them! ANYWAY, we are back so lets get to the weather!

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This storm is NOT a big snowmaker for us, rather a much BIGGER Icemaker...We are ON that line as usual though, of the cold and more snow...So, 20-30 mile changes - EVEN LESS then that, COULD MEAN BIG changes for us.

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TIMING - Freezing rain/sleet will break out tonight if not before midnight by midnight, continue through the morning and change over to snow late morning/midday. Light Snow will continue through the afternoon, probably not too heavy. Icing will continue as well mixing a bit with snow through the evening. It will change back to all snow and continue through Monday night ending between 1-4am or a bit before...generally very very early hours of Tuesday.

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ACCUMULATIONS 

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BIGGEST HAZARD - ICE ICE ICE....THERE IS A MUCH MUCH GREATER CHANCE OF ICE WITH THIS SYSTEM THEN LAST, BECAUSE TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE QUITE AS COLD. GROUND TEMPS HOWEVER WILL BE WELL BELOW FREEZING - WE ALL KNOW WHAT HAPPENS THEN - IT FREEZES ON CONTACT.

With Snow NOT changing over until LATER in the DAY MONDAY, and temperatures not going BELOW freezing until AFTER MIDDAY, ICING WILL BE A VERY BAD PROBLEM for the Morning commute, and EVEN the Afternoon/EVENING commute which will be EVEN MORE dangerous as it changes back to a wet, sleety, icy snow.

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Temperatures tomorrow will be JUST around or UNDER 32°, even into Upper 20's if we are lucky. North of I84, you will be mostly snow, even north of I287. Temperatures will begin to drop after lunchtime and continue dropping to low to mid 20's by nightfall - ANY Wet/melted ground will freeze up..on top of any ice that formed.

AGAIN, THIS IS NOT A BIG SNOWMAKER FOR US...MUCH MORE OF AN ICE MAKER - WHICH IS MUCH WORSE.

********5PM SATURDAY UPDATE*********

Ok, Dillon and I have both been out this weekend in DC and Boston, so it is hard to post - we will do short updates for the Sunday-Monday storm.

THIS STORM IS LOOKING A BIT LIKE LAST WEEKS STORM GUYS.

Models have been trending a bit south today, we shall see with the 18z runs if this holds true.

Right now heaviest snows again in eastern New England and interior NY. BOSTON could receive up to 2'!!!!!!!!!

TIMING - Late Sunday afternoon/evening into Monday night.

Accumulations - CANNOT MAKE A MAP NOW, SO- NYC and south to central NJ, 1-3" at best. SIGNIFICANT ice problem is possible. NYC To i287/ Briarcliff, 3-6" with 4-8" localized amounts - this follows through southern CT/northern PA along the border and providence RI. North of all this, 6-10" localized 8-12" amounts. Boston to Albany and north about 100-150 miles ish 12-18" localized higher amounts of 18-24".

ANY movement north or south even 20-50 miles will have HUGE impacts on temps and accumulations. 20-30 miles south puts US in irvington in the 6-10" range, 20-30 miles north and we get nada.

Icing will be a slight problem between NYC and I287 as well.

It's going to be a messy, icky storm, much like last weeks storm.

More updates later from either Dillon or I. 

HAVE A GREAT NIGHT! Any questions ask in the comments or pm me or Dillon.

*******7:15PM UPDATE THURSDAY********

Oki Doki, We got ALOT going on over the next week or so.

- Sunday through Tuesday storm is an over runner, meaning (And THANK you to the teacher who taught Dillon and me all this!) We have a a S/SW flow in the Jet, and cA (Continental Arctic) airmass Flowing East. This is the overrunning part as you get Cold air at the lower altitudes and warm air on top in the Upper Altitudes. We get Precip then, even though this is not a warm front. SO...THIS IS HOW OUR STORM WILL FORM ON SUNDAY-TUESDAY! Problem is, wherever that Cold Boundary sets up (N/S) will determine where the snows are. RIGHT now, it is setting up more or less just to the south/over NYC...meaning another huge battle between warm and cold, snow/ice/rain. We shall see where this goes, but I have a big hunch that the boundary will set up farther to the south and give us some more snow. A difference of 50-100, EVEN 25-50 MILES could make a HUGE difference for us - like the last storm.

More updates to come. At this point though, we are still getting a good amount of snow, mostly a steady light snow lasting 36 hours or more possibly.

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-BRUTAL, and I mean brutal brutal cold coming this weekend...as you saw today temps dropped 20-30° for some from morning to now. This drop will CONTINUE and we will get DEEP into the negatives tomorrow morning with the windchill. Some places even -20° with windchill.

- COLD lets up a teensy bit, but barely and we go through the weekend still with very very cold temps. PEOPL, MORE COLD AIR on the way after this.

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**************************FORECAST****************************

TONIGHT - Clear, Temperatures continuing to drop to about 4-6° in NYC to Westchester, 0-4° Northern Westchester and Rockland and Southern CT, then negatives as you get further North. Windchills NEGATIVE from -5 to -20° or less.

TOMORROW - COLDDDD in the morning windchill values in the NEGATIVES, warming up to the balmy High teens to VERY VERY low 20's

SATURDAY - Chance of some light snow in the afternoon, probably not much accumulation if any. Highs near 30° and cloudy.

SUNDAY - Light snow showers/snow developing afternoon/evening and continuing through the night, first part of the storm. More on this later. Highs in the mid to high 20's.

MAP SHOWING TEMPS WHEN WE WAKE UP TOMORROW MORNING PEOPLE - FRIGIDDDDD

********WEDNESDAY EVENING UPDATE**********

OK GUYS GOTTA DO A QUICK ONE - LOTS OF OTHER STUFF TO DO!

MORE DETAILED ONE TOMORROW!

ANYWAY!

- SNOW FOR TOMORROW ON THE WAY, HEAVY? NO! LIGHT FLUFFY STUFF, A GENERAL 1-3", MAYBE JUST MAYBE 2-4" IF..AND ONLY IF WE ARE LUCKY. 

TIMING - LATE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON (LIKE LUNCHTIME) MAY BE A MESSY RUSH HOUR. 

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THEN THE BIG BIG BIG FREEZE...FOLKS YES, WE WILL GO FROM JUST AROUND 30° DURING THE DAY TOMORROW TO NEAR 0° AT NIGHT, NEGATIVE WITH THE WINDCHILLS...FRIDAY MORNING WILL BE FRIGID FRIGID, AS WELL AS THE DAY!!!

MORE COLD FOR THE WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK COMING.
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Rumors Going Around about a storm next week? WELL YES! The Models have been PRETTY INTENT AND CONSISTENT ON A LONG DURATION WINTER STORM From Sunday through Monday Night, maybe into Tuesday early early morning. Essentially what will happen is a storm will form on the edge of an Arctic front dropping down from Canada. Where this front is positioned will determine the heaviest snows, right now centered more or less over us, NY and parts of New England before a developing Coastal Storm moves up the coast and "merges" with our storm - THIS COULD BUMP UP SNOW DEPENDING ON WHEN AND WHERE THIS HAPPENS TOO!!

Another Possible Event for Next Thursday as well...but this is far out and not to worry about yet.

****MODEL UN FOLKS - GETTING SOMEWHAT WORRIED ABOUT OUR COMMUTE BACK SUNDAY IN TERMS OF THE STORM AND US DRIVING, MORE DETAILS TOMORROW.**********

SNOW MAP BELOW FOR CLIPPER...NOT REALLY MUCH TO SEE.

THANKS RYAN AT WEATHERBELL FOR THE MAPS - HE REALLY DOES AN AMAZING JOB as WELL AS EVERYBODY ELSE ON THE TEAM THERE! IF YOU WANNA LEARN ALOT ABOUT THE WEATHER AND GET AMAZING MAPS - GO TO www.weatherbell.com!!

*********TUESDAY EVENING UPDATIO********

AFTERNOON FOLKS, Hope you had a great weekend and fun snowdayyy :) Now get ready for more! ;)

BULLETINS:

1) Storm for Thursday/Friday which was supposed to be a combination of a clipper and Coastal storm forming will form TOO far East, leaving us with just a small clipper, 1-2" AT BEST FOR NOW. Everybody missing out on this storm - maybe the cape gets 3-6" thats it ***FOR NOW, THIS COULD CHANGE***

2) SUNDAY-MONDAY Still on the models as a potential major storm so keep an eye out.

3) RECORD cold coming over the weekend - if the models are correct SUBZERO temperatures possible WITHOUT the windchills

4) MORE storms on the horizon after Sunday/Monday System 

5) BRUTAL BRUTAL COLD ON THE WAY...REALLY 

**************FORECAST**************

TONIGHT - Clear highs in the low to mid teens.

WEDNESDAY - MAYBE OUR WARMEST DAY FOR THE NEXT WEEK? Warm front passing in the morning will spawn some Snow Showers, Not much accumulation if any, Highs reaching near or around 40° near the coast, and Mid 30's to HIGH 20's for the rest of the NE and New England..NOT FOR LONG THOUGH PEOPLE!

THURSDAY - Arctic Front on the move will plunge temperatures as the day goes on, Highs starting in the low to mid 20's will QUICKLY drop to teens and maybe single digits EVEN negatives by nightfall even down to the coast, BRUTAL COLD BY NIGHTFALL.!!!! LIGHT SNOW during the day on and off, ONLY A COATING TO AN INCH AT THIS POINT - THIS MIGHT CHANGE SO KEEP AN EYE OUT!!!! 

FRIDAY - COOLLDDDD BRUTAL COLD! Highs in the Single digits to MID/UPPER TEENS!!! COLD COLD COLD!! Partly Cloudy otherwise.

******IRVINGTON MODEL UN PEOPLES!!!, WEATHER WISE, LOOKING OK FOR NOW FOR OUR TRIP - BUT BUT BUT, COLD MAN IT IS GOING TO BE BRUTALLY COLD, WARMEST PROBABLY IN UPPER TEENS, BUT IT COULD GET DOWN WELL INTO THE NEGATIVES WITH THE WINDCHILL...PACK WARMMMLYYYY AND LOTS OF GLOVES. REMEMBER, THERE IS 4-5' OF SNOW PACK UP THERE - THIS WILL REFRIGERATE THE AIR, SO IT MAY BE COLDER THEN EVEN THE MODELS SAY. ************

*******MONDAY EVENING UPDATE ON WEEK AHEAD (WILD ONE?)*********

FIRST OFF, DILLON AND ME ARE VERY PROUD WITH HOW THIS STORM WORKED OUT AND OUR FORECAST - PRETTY MUCH SPOT ON. WE KNEW THAT COLD AIR WOULD STICK AROUND AND THIS STORM WOULD PRODUCE MORE SNOW THEN THE LIQUID STUFF THAT WE ALL HATE wink emoticon

SECONDLY - This next couple weeks COULD go down as the SNOWIEST two weeks for New England and parts of the NorthEast...if that gives you a hint at what is going on!
FLASH FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT! FOLKS TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY DROP AND THE WINDS WILL PICK UP. ANY STANDING WATER, MELTED SNOW, UNTREATED SURFACES, ETC WILL FREEZE UP! BE CAREFUL DRIVING, WALKING, GOING OUTSIDE!
******- 3 POTENTIAL STORMS ON THE WAY FOLKS! FIRST ONE FOR THURSDAY/FRIDAY AND THEN 2 MORE NEXT WEEK...AT THE VERY LEAST.********

We Still have details to work out with the storm for Thursday/Friday but KEEP YOUR EYES OUT for posts from us as we will have all the latest details!

TONIGHT - Temps falling to low teens/upper single digits for many and even down into the negatives North and NW of the City. Any snow showers will wrap up and end, skies gradually clearing.

TUESDAY - Highs in the LOW to MID 20's, I DOUBT we will reach 30°! WATCH FOR ICED UP SURFACES!!!! Partly cloudy, becoming sunnier as day goes on. WINDS will stay up there folks!

WEDNESDAY - Some Snow showers are possible during the day, Otherwise partly cloudy and Highs near 32°.

THURSDAY - Possible storm coming during the afternoon/evening into friday. STILL too early to really tell, more details tomorrow and Wednesday.

**********10:45 AM UPDATE ON WINTER STORM LINUS [#LINUS]*********

VERY VERY HAPPY WITH THE FORECAST THAT DILLON AND ME PUT OUT LAST NIGHT, VERY HAPPY. 7.58" SO FAR, NO RAIN YET JUST SLEET AND ICE AND SNOW. 

The storm ended up coming in a tad weaker and was not able to push that Arctic HP as much away, therefore cold air lasted longer.

SO WHATS NEXT?

We have a Secondary low trying to/succesfully ish forming off the Delmarva Peninsula (Well really between Jersey Coast and Delmarva) and THIS will drain some more cold air south and fuel a redevelopment of precipitation as the two fronts collide LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

SO...SLEET, ICE, SNOW will CONTINUE for the next few hours AND THEN a POTENTIAL HEAVY BAND OF SNOW WILL DEVELOP AFTER LUNCH AS THE BACKSIDE OF ALL THIS MOISTURE WRAPS AROUND and the Secondary low moves NE. 

REST OF TODAY - Snow/Sleet/Ice continuing and then turning back to an all snow solution after lunch for a TIME. SNOW COULD BE HEAVY. Additional accumulations of 1-4" ARE POSSIBLE as that heavy band comes through, WE WILL UPDATE ACCORDINGLY.
Temperatures in the High 20's in NYC to Low 20's in Westchester and PROGRESSIVELY colder as you get N/NW/NE of NYC. IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS - MORE OF A RAIN/SLEET MIXTURE.

FLASH FREEZE IN EFFECT FOR THIS EVENING, TEMPERATURES DROPPING 20-30° FOR SOME TO LOW TO MID TEENS OR UPPER SINGLE DIGITS. ALL STANDING WATER, MELTED PRECIP, UNTREATED ROADS, ETC WILL FREEZE

All precipitation will taper off this evening into nighttime and gradually clear by midnight.

PLACES SOUTH OF YONKERS, COASTAL CT, LONG ISLAND...YOU WILL HAVE A POTENTIAL COMPLETE MESS OF ICE ON YOUR HANDS AS TEMPERATURES RAPIDLY DROP AND MOISTURE MOVES IN, PRECIP KEEPS FALLING. BE CAREFUL

Additional Snow accumulation map below.

ANY QUESTIONS? IF SO POST IT BELOW IN THE COMMENTS OR MESSAGE ME OR DILLON.

********11PM UPDATE ON WINTER STORM [LINUS?]*********

Snow Has started moving into the area, the ACTUAL system still WAY back in Western PA. The storm looks to be tracking a TAD south of what was thought - GOOD for snow lovers. Models continued to trend south a tad as well, only like 5-10 miles...but any trend is a good trend south.

IT WILL STILL be a close call with rain/snow line - WE ARE EXPECTING A POTENTIALLY SERIOUS ICE SITUATION FOLKS! Looks like at this point we cannot get out of that! UP TO A HALF AN INCH of Ice COULD ACCUMULATE ON TOP OF 5-8" OF SNOW! BE CAREFUL FOLKS!

So, Looking like a GOOD 6-9 hours of SNOW before we start thinking about changing over to wintry mix.

PERSONAL OPINION FROM DILLON AND I - BAD IDEA FOR SCHOOLS ON TWO HOUR DELAY, GOING TO BE VERY VERY ICY AND BAD ROADS/CONDITIONS TOMORROW. LETS HOPE THEY CHANGE THEIR DECISION.

BACK TOMORROW MORNING WITH UPDATES.

STILL HANGING ONTO SNOW ACCUMULATION MAP FROM BEFORE.

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http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/northeast.php