Thursday Evening Weather Update SPECIAL on the Winter Storm

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Updated: 0100z/21:00/09:00PM

----------------------------------FORECAST----------------------------------

TONIGHT - Clear but getting cloudy as the night progresses on, temperatures in the low to mid 20's.

FRIDAY - Cloudy with snow arriving midday, might have some stickage issues at first but ground temps and air temps (aloft as well) will be good to support snow. Snow may be heavy at times especially between 4-6pm. This will be a heavy, wet snow guys - none of that fluffy snow we have been getting! Snow continuing into the nighttime, temperatures in the low to mid 30's.

FRIDAY NIGHT - Snow continuing and tapering off between 10pm and midnight for most east of NYC. Temps in the low 20's.

SATURDAY - Temperatures in the low to mid 40's, cloudy in the morning changing to sunny.

-------------------------FORECAST DISCUSSION-------------------------

A small area of low pressure will continue to deepen and move North/NE throughout the night, spreading rain before changing over to snow as it reaches Southern PA and the mountains of West Virginia, and overspreading snow to our area (East of NYC) By midday.

The models, especially the GFS have been pretty consistent on their ideas with this storm for several runs, and Dillon and I feel confident in our forecast. That being said, as always we will be nowcasting as the storm arrives. A key factor during this storm will be the March sun, and temperatures. Tomorrow is the Vernal Equinox, and with that comes equal day and night. While temperatures will be at or below freezing for us, for the most part, the high angle of the sun and the strength of the incoming solation will try to melt the snow. This will play the biggest part during the daytime, however, with the storm arriving a bit later now with the heaviest precipitation (Heaviest precip will be between 4-6PM LIKELY, THIS CAN CHANGE), the sun will be setting and the strength lessened - a bit. Not to say it will be negligible.

To overcome the high sun angle and strength, strong snowfall rates for a good amount of time would be required, as this would promote evaporational and dynamic cooling within the air column to keep the temperatures even cooler, and lessen the suns affect.

That being said, as we look at the soundings and cross sections during the storm, temperatures look very good to support snow, especially big fat flakes which could help accumulate faster.

As the storm happens, Dillon will monitor the Radar and provide small updates (I will be out of town, will try to update if possible) throughout the day.

Also, important to note that even though the snow will be falling by midday, there may be sticking issues causing it not to stick immediately. This should not be a huge problem, especially if we can get big snowfall rates.

Our first call snow map still applies, and is posted below.

*********2PM UPDATE - OR SHOULD I SAY APOLOGY?************

Obviously at this point in the day the storm is moving out, and many of you are probably wondering what happened. There is not much more for me to add from what Dillon posted, but I do want to explain something:

When you have multiple models, and one of them being the one that is most widely trusted and regarded as the best telling you that a massive storm will affect your area and drop 20+" for 3 or 4 CONSECUTIVE days (6-8 models runs or more) then generally that plays out as it said it would. But it must be understood that Mother nature will do what she does. This storm formed further SW then the models predicted, and had a more negative tilt. The Arctic Air boundary, which it was forming along was also fairly west over NY. These observations on the radar and satellite led many to believe that it would continue to be a bit further west then the models had, and stay around longer with the more negative tilt. It was still further west then expected with OUR LAST update Last night @ 10:20pm. So why suddenly after 2am did it shift east? This is not known, at least to me yet...but I will be finding out. EVEN when the 0z Euro model came out at 1:30am...it had us still getting 12-18". 

This does not mean however that Dillon, me, or any other meteorologists forecast for 20+" NYC and North was right and should not take blame. It was wrong. We understand that. Busts happen though, and we cannot control that. Dillon and I spent 18+ hours (you can check the phone log) on the phone in the last 4 days talking about the storm and our forecasts, all the different ways it could go, amounts, etc...everything was used to make the forecast, plus 2 hours of research and writing each post...but hey what can you do. 

SO, We are sorry for any inconvenience this may have caused. We hope you continue to view our page for Weather forecasts/updates.

If anybody continues to have questions as to why this happened, then email me, or private message me. 

FOR THOSE OF YOU EAST OF THE CT RIVER, and on Long Island - WELL LUCKY YOU, because you are the big winners with this storm. 

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NOW, onto the next few day/week.

TODAY - MAYBE a few stray snow here and there otherwise snow ending and clouds clearing out late, still a bit windy steady in mid to low 20's.

WEDNESDAY - Partly cloudy becoming mostly sunny highs in the high 20's still a bit windy.

THURSDAY - Partly cloudy Highs steady around 30°, clouds arriving at night, maybe some light snow during the night as we have a possible clipper coming by.

FRIDAY - Maybe some snow in the morning with a passing clipper, otherwise Cloudy highs in the low 30's.

We have a possible event for Next Sunday into Monday. We will not start coverage on this until Friday at the earliest most likely. 

**********VERY IMPORTANT 5:30 AM UPDATE**********

Last night some of the models had Remy and I VERY CONCERNED that the storm was going to be further offshore and therefore we would receive a much reduced amount of snow. However, the European model, which is highly trusted among many meteorologists, has been consistent in its last four runs printing 24"+ across the area. Additionally, the model runs that were portraying a faster and more offshore system have since returned to something closer to that of the European model. 

With that being said, we will NOT make any changes as of now to our current snowfall map as we still believe everything is in place for a MAJOR blizzard. Those of you under the 18-24" range (lower Hudson Valley, NE New Jersey, Long Island, and coastal New England) should be on guard for blizzard-like conditions beginning late Monday night and continuing through the early afternoon on Tuesday. Additionally, mesoscale banding (essentially VERY heavy bands of snow) will set up somewhere across the aforementioned area, creating a "sweet spot" for snowfall (30 INCHES PLUS)... however, predicting exactly where these bands will form is nearly impossible this far in advance.

The timing of the storm has also remained the same. During the day on Monday, most areas can expect between 1-3" of snow before nightfall as the clipper arrives. Come this evening, the snow will pick up in intensity as the storm stalls and strengthens off the New Jersey coast. We are highlighting the time period from LATE MONDAY EVENING THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON as the period of the heaviest snowfall. Snowfall rates could approach FOUR INCHES PER HOUR. Tuesday evening the storm should begin to wind down with little additional accumulation. For total accumulations in your area, refer to the map below. Then it gets COLD.

Folks, this is a VERY dangerous storm. If you do not have to travel, DON'T. At the height of the storm, some roads will likely be IMPASSABLE and power outages are very possible. Make sure you are prepared with food, water, flashlights, batteries, and plenty of warm clothing/blankets. This storm will most likely go down in the record books.

******IMPORTANT SMALL UPDATE FOLKS*******

*****PLEASE READ
EVEN THOUGH THE BULK OF THE SNOW IS NOT TOMORROW DAYTIME, THE 1-3" FOR TOMORROW COULD EASILY BECOME 2-4" OR MORE AS THE EXTREMELY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL LEAD TO MUCH HIGHER SNOW RATIOS - SO TRAVELLING PEEPS BE CAREFUL. BE CAREFUL GETTING TO AND FROM SCHOOL!

FELLOW CLASSMATES, MAKE SURE YOU GOT RIDES TO AND FROM SCHOOL IF NOT TAKING THE BUS ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON!

********MONDAY EVENING DISCUSSION***********

FEW POINTS OF DISCUSSION

-The Possibility of a potentially major storm is VERY MUCH in the realm of possibility for Saturday night into Sunday night (20-21st). SO KEEP AN EYE ON THE POSTS COMING FROM HERE, WE WILL HAVE THE LATEST UPDATES.

- AO/NAO/EPO/WPO/PNA ALL TANK AROUND 24TH-26TH SO IT SEEMS, WHAT DOES THIS MEAN? WELL ESSENTIALLY THAT WINTER WILL REALLY BE LOCKING IN - COLD, STORMINESS...MUCH LIKE THE PATTERN BACK IN NOVEMBER, BUT MORE SUSTAINED AND STORMY.

- ANOTHER POSSIBLE STORM, YES, Right on the heels of the possible Saturday-Sunday Storm we get ANOTHER for Christmas...Details still vague but the possibility, again DEFINITELY there!!!

- THE BLOCKING we have been waiting for (or at least I have) will begin to set up between and after the Sunday and Christmas storms, coinciding with the Oscillations/Teleconnections tanking! 


***********************FORECASTIC FORECAST**********************

TONIGHT - Highs in the HIGH 20's, clear

TUESDAY - Partly Cloudy skies over to all cloudy w/ showers developing in the evening and changing over to all rain in the night, MAYBE a bit of freezing sleet/ice for a bit but I am doubtful. Highs in the mid 40's, lows in the HIGH 30's. Areas in Northern NY, Southern NE...maybe even Boston could see some snow showers/light snow on the backside.

WEDNESDAY - BIG WARMUP! HIGHS NEAR 50*, Partly Cloudy

THURSDAY - Highs back down to high 30's, sunny.

FRIDAY - Highs low to mid 30's, sunny.

WILL GET TO WEEKEND LATER!

PICTURES

- EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE CONTROL RUN OF TOTAL SNOWFALL, IN NO MEANS A FORECAST JUST A GUIDE TO THOSE WHO COULD SEE SNOW. ENSEMBLE MEAN RUN ALSO INCLUDED

- EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MSLP MAP FOR THE POSSIBLE SUNDAY STORM.

Saturday Evening Discussion and FORECAST Updates

*******************ONCE AGAIN FOLKS - VERY VERY BUSY TIME FOR WEATHER THESE NEXT FEW WEEKS, AND A VERY ACTIVE PATTERN.**************************

I know most of you do not generally like to read all the nuts and bolts technical information that I have to go through and look at to make these posts, but I REALLY wanted to share with you a few technical things that I think are interesting, and you might want to know, that have to do with the current weather and what I believe will begin to set in for the winter. So if you wanna learn something new, read! If not, skip ahead to the bottom where the Forecast is.

Among MANY things that control our weather, and climate are some things called NAO/AO/PDO/AMO/EPO/WPO/PNA...These are different Teleconnections and Oscillations that essentially measure Air pressure, and Sea Surface Temperatures at different regions around the world. In the winter, what generally happens, is the NAO (North Atlantic Oscillations) and AO (Arctic Oscillations) favor negative trends. Negative trends favor COLDER conditions across much of North America, and therefore, when the NAO/AO are negative, you can almost surely bet we will be seeing cold air that correlates with when they go negative. to put briefly what happens when the NAO goes negative, is we get whats called Blocking in the atmosphere to the NE of us over New Foundland, and a Huge Ridge (Area of positive pressure) over Greenland (Sometimes Called Greenland Blocking). We also usually see a ridge over the Gulf of Alaska. With this setup, we see low pressure more prevalent over the USA...hence the storminess. What this allows is for the Jet stream to dip down into the USA, and that allows that COLD arctic air to dive south. When the AO goes negative, we also end up with a very similar situation, though usually more LOW pressure over Greenland.
NOW, for this winter, what is interesting is how the PDO fits into all of this. The PDO are Pacific Decadel Oscillations, and this is basically measures of SST's in the Pacific Oceans. Without getting to much into details, the PDO usually exists in 30 year cycles of Warm and cold. Currently, and since about 1978 we have been in a warm cycle. What this means is warmer waters around Alaska and west coast, colder Water in the middle of the Pacific north of 20* N Latitude. It also favors more El Ninos (We are in a weak El Nino Right Now). Usually though in a Warm cycle, After the first 10-15 years, it begins to turn colder. A Warm PDO ALSO favors More Atlantic Hurricanes (LOOK AT SANDY) that make landfall, and MORE GREENLAND BLOCKING, WHICH LETS IN THAT COLD AIR AND MORE SNOWSTORMS.

SO, For this winter, to sum it all up, the pattern really starts to LOCK in around Christmas this year so it seems, with the AO/NAO..etc. starting to go Negative hinting and more SUSTAINED COLD. Warmer then Average SST's in the Atlantic will diminish, and blocking will begin to setup over Greenland (sustained) and Gulf of Alaska allowing that cold air in. The Jet stream will feature a more N-S Split of the two then usual, which will continue to allow for more of these Nor'Easters to form because it carries and allows them to form in the Gulf and ride the coast up. AS I SAID WEEKS AGO, I still believe, that ONCE this winter locks in, and that pattern is set - we will be IN winter for a while and locked in.

SO, JUST SOME TECHNICAL INFO ON OUR CLIMATE. THIS ALSO HAPPENS TO BE WHAT DILLON AND I ARE STUDYING IN SCIENCE RESEARCH, AND WE HAVE THE GREAT PRIVELAGE TO WORK WITH Joe D'aleo who was a founder of the Weather Channel, and professor, and is a leading meteorologist in the world and expert on this type of stuff. So, IF ANYBODY HAS QUESTIONS - ASK AWAY!
PS - I HAVE ATTACHED AN IMAGE EXPLAINING WHAT I AM TALKING ABOUT - NOT MY IMAGE, IT IS FROM JOE D'ALEO'S AWESOME PAPER!

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NOW ONTO THE WEATHER!

VERY ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER COMING UP - Right off the bat, we have POTENTIALLY THREE Systems to come THROUGH THE AREA between now and Christmas.

-1ST Low Pressure Forms out in midwest from the mess left over from the storms that hit the West Coast. RIGHT NOW, it goes over the Great lakes, sorta gets diminished and reforms once well away from us, but there is ALOT of other things involved with this, and I have a feeling we may get a bit more of it then we think right now. As of now though, just some showers from it Tuesday afternoon/Night.

-2ND Possible Nor'Easter SUNDAY-MONDAY of next week, this could be a snow maker, but it is still to early to tell...IT MUST BE WATCHED THOUGH, as the Pattern WILL BE SETTING IN FOR COLDER AIR TO BE DOMINANT AND CONSISTENT.

-3RD CHRISTMAS! YES, THERE IS A POSSIBLE SYSTEM THAT COULD AFFECT US ON CHRISTMAS...So, it is still over 10 days out so HARD to tell, but the POSSIBILITY IS THERE. Must ALSO be watched!!!!!!!

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TONIGHT - Lows near 32*, clear...not much going on
SUNDAY - Highs high 30's, to low 40's...colder inland and North as you get into Boston Area, Sunny.
MONDAY - Sunny, Highs near 40*
TUESDAY - Sunny then turning Cloudy, Highs in low 40's. Rain Showers in afternoon - evening, will clear out during the night.
WEDNESDAY - BRIEF WARMUP, Highs mid to HIGH 40's, Mostly Cloudy though, maybe some sun peeking through as system exits to the East.
THURSDAY - COLDER, Highs barely reaching high 30's, stuck in Low to MID 30's. Sunny.
FRIDAY - Highs just about at freezing, 30-33*, Sunny.

Have a nice night folks!