Monday Evening Update - Quick Rain Update

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Updated: 0055z/20:55/08:55PM

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TONIGHT - Temperatures going down to upper 40's, a bit windy with rain showers and t-storms becoming more steady as the night wears on. WATCH for localized flooding in low spots.

TUESDAY - Steady rain should begin to taper off late morning into the afternoon, Lets keep in mind that some of the models have it sticking around past 2pm and tapering off late afternoon, clouds will stick around though clearing through the night as High pressure builds. Highs a tad warmer then today, around 60-62°

WEDNESDAY - A bit warmer, highs in the mid 60's, partly cloudy, a bit breezy, High pressure continues to build into the area.

THURSDAY - Partly cloudy, highs again in mid to upper 60's, not as windy...small chance of a shower or two but doubting it right now.

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As waves of low pressure/shortwaves continue to move along the frontal boundary to the south of us, a more organized mass of rain showers, some t-storms and steady rain will develop tonight and last through the night into tomorrow afternoon before tapering off tomorrow night. Locally heavy rainfall will be possible, the heaviest rain should follow a line from Philly --> NYC northern Suburbs --> Boston before it all ends. CURRENTLY here in Irvington we have recorded 1.03" rain today, and 2.79" rain yesterday (sunday) bringing our total for this system to 3.82"...BASED on the current models, and meso-analysis of the system, I really do think along that line mentioned above, another 1 to 2" of rain before Wednesday will not be uncommon, with totals from the system coming close to or exceeding 5".

 

 As of yesterday morning at 10am, we were at 33% the normal precipitation for the month of May. By midnight last night, we had jumped to 94% of our normal precipitation for May, so that was good good catch up, although ideally it would have been better to have had it spread out over the entire month.

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Oki doki, watch for flooding tomorrow in low spots, enjoy the cool weather, and remember umbrellas! Have a nice night smile emoticon

Sunday Afternoon Update - Here come the DELAYED rains!

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Updated: 1945z/15:45/3:45PM

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REST OF TODAY - Rain showers and localized heavy downpours/t-storms as well as possible HAIL and high wind gusts will move across the area in response to the cold front trudging its way through well to the west of us. Rains will become more organized as evening progresses. Temps maxing out around 80° WATCH FOR FLOODING. FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TONIGHT - Cold front passes in the late evening probably between 7-9pm, watch those temps plummet into high 50's low 60's across much of the area north of NYC northern suburbs.

MONDAY - Rain for much of the day heavy at times, watch for localized flooding as 1-3" across the area of rain can be expected with this system from late tonight through Tuesday night.. Highs Monday in the HIGH 50's maybe reaching 60-62°

TUESDAY - Watch for Thunderstorms and rain in the morning into the afternoon possible as the system exits to the east, then maybe some partial clearing and the sun should peak out in the late afternoon - need some things to come into play for this to happen so lets wait and seer], highs in the low to mid 60's.

WEDNESDAY - High pressure builds into the area behind the storm system and drier cooler air comes in, Highs in the mid to high 60's maybe up to 70°, clouds in and out and watch for some wind.

--------------------------FORECAST DISCUSSION------------------------

OKI Doki very potent system we got moving into place, lets get into the rains - for the next 2-3 days!!!

Cold front will continue to move southward, right now it is just about 35-50 miles north of us, anyway it will continue southward through the afternoon and will move to the south of us by late tonight - now, if it were just this cold front then the rains would be short and sweet - BUT, big BUT, we have waves of low pressure that will form along the frontal boundary and move NE from the Jersey/Baltimore region through our region and into New England lasting through, AT THE VERY LEAST late late Monday night - but likely into Tuesday afternoon if things shape up well. WE NEED this rain - THAT being said, the ground is dry, and flooding will occur so watch out, especially getting into the Mid Hudson valley and CT/MA border down into Jersey where 2-4" of rain could fall over the next 2-3 days. NYC and Northern Suburbs, including LI and along the Jersey coastline, CT coastline and southern N.E a bit less rain, but still 1-3" with localized higher amounts.

For the immediate afternoon, instability is increasing as we speak as the cold front enhances the lift in front (south) of it, mL Cape is 1200-1800 should increase to 2200-2500 j/kg before decreasing as the Front moves to the south of us...lots of precipitable in the air in excess of 2" across the area will feed the system, and with low winds out of the lower level jet these storms will sit...sit and sit.

Low pressure moves along the front getting into Monday and a shortwave NRG moving across will increase that lift, so watch ot for more heavy rain although not as many t-storms, NE flow develops as High pressure moves into the region Monday night into Tuesday and cooler air/drier - in the mid 60's to low 70's comes into place for much of the week.

SO...this is all good rain to help our dry spell, BUT be careful for any flooding! Models continue to show more rain for the end of the week getting into next week as well, so we will keep an eye on that! Graphics below to show some of the things talked about here smile emoticon have a nice rest of Sunday!