Monday Evening Update - Quick Rain Update

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Updated: 0055z/20:55/08:55PM

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TONIGHT - Temperatures going down to upper 40's, a bit windy with rain showers and t-storms becoming more steady as the night wears on. WATCH for localized flooding in low spots.

TUESDAY - Steady rain should begin to taper off late morning into the afternoon, Lets keep in mind that some of the models have it sticking around past 2pm and tapering off late afternoon, clouds will stick around though clearing through the night as High pressure builds. Highs a tad warmer then today, around 60-62°

WEDNESDAY - A bit warmer, highs in the mid 60's, partly cloudy, a bit breezy, High pressure continues to build into the area.

THURSDAY - Partly cloudy, highs again in mid to upper 60's, not as windy...small chance of a shower or two but doubting it right now.

------------------------FORECAST DISCUSSION--------------------------

As waves of low pressure/shortwaves continue to move along the frontal boundary to the south of us, a more organized mass of rain showers, some t-storms and steady rain will develop tonight and last through the night into tomorrow afternoon before tapering off tomorrow night. Locally heavy rainfall will be possible, the heaviest rain should follow a line from Philly --> NYC northern Suburbs --> Boston before it all ends. CURRENTLY here in Irvington we have recorded 1.03" rain today, and 2.79" rain yesterday (sunday) bringing our total for this system to 3.82"...BASED on the current models, and meso-analysis of the system, I really do think along that line mentioned above, another 1 to 2" of rain before Wednesday will not be uncommon, with totals from the system coming close to or exceeding 5".

 

 As of yesterday morning at 10am, we were at 33% the normal precipitation for the month of May. By midnight last night, we had jumped to 94% of our normal precipitation for May, so that was good good catch up, although ideally it would have been better to have had it spread out over the entire month.

smile emoticon

Oki doki, watch for flooding tomorrow in low spots, enjoy the cool weather, and remember umbrellas! Have a nice night smile emoticon

********EVENING UPDATE******

I am happy to say that the snow amounts that I forecasted came out more or less right on target! I knew that there was too muhc cold air here that it would be all rain today  silly weather sites  

SO,.. Here is the deal! Forecast for the rest of the night and tomorrow:

TONIGHT - Snow/Sleet will turn to Sleet and then ALL rain by 9pm for pretty much everybody south of Albany. Peoples North of Albany and Concord, NH expect it to stay an icey/sleety/snowy mix until late tonight before changing over to all rain. Temps will rise to mid to HIGH 30's.

TOMORROW - WOW MUCH WARMER! I dont think nearly as warm as some are saying (61*!) BUT we will definately get up into 50's, and possibly break that 60* mark, but probably only for folks SOUTH of I287/Thruway.

MONDAY - First cold front moves through Sunday night finish up its passage Monday, temps in the mid 30's, partly cloudy.

GETTING INTO TUESDAY We have an Alberta Clipper that will MOST LIKELY affect us Tuesday afternoon into evening. Since Alberta Clippers are fast and hard to predict until they are basically on our doorstep, we will get into this Monday night!

Latest Radar image below!

Saturday Evening Discussion and FORECAST Updates

*******************ONCE AGAIN FOLKS - VERY VERY BUSY TIME FOR WEATHER THESE NEXT FEW WEEKS, AND A VERY ACTIVE PATTERN.**************************

I know most of you do not generally like to read all the nuts and bolts technical information that I have to go through and look at to make these posts, but I REALLY wanted to share with you a few technical things that I think are interesting, and you might want to know, that have to do with the current weather and what I believe will begin to set in for the winter. So if you wanna learn something new, read! If not, skip ahead to the bottom where the Forecast is.

Among MANY things that control our weather, and climate are some things called NAO/AO/PDO/AMO/EPO/WPO/PNA...These are different Teleconnections and Oscillations that essentially measure Air pressure, and Sea Surface Temperatures at different regions around the world. In the winter, what generally happens, is the NAO (North Atlantic Oscillations) and AO (Arctic Oscillations) favor negative trends. Negative trends favor COLDER conditions across much of North America, and therefore, when the NAO/AO are negative, you can almost surely bet we will be seeing cold air that correlates with when they go negative. to put briefly what happens when the NAO goes negative, is we get whats called Blocking in the atmosphere to the NE of us over New Foundland, and a Huge Ridge (Area of positive pressure) over Greenland (Sometimes Called Greenland Blocking). We also usually see a ridge over the Gulf of Alaska. With this setup, we see low pressure more prevalent over the USA...hence the storminess. What this allows is for the Jet stream to dip down into the USA, and that allows that COLD arctic air to dive south. When the AO goes negative, we also end up with a very similar situation, though usually more LOW pressure over Greenland.
NOW, for this winter, what is interesting is how the PDO fits into all of this. The PDO are Pacific Decadel Oscillations, and this is basically measures of SST's in the Pacific Oceans. Without getting to much into details, the PDO usually exists in 30 year cycles of Warm and cold. Currently, and since about 1978 we have been in a warm cycle. What this means is warmer waters around Alaska and west coast, colder Water in the middle of the Pacific north of 20* N Latitude. It also favors more El Ninos (We are in a weak El Nino Right Now). Usually though in a Warm cycle, After the first 10-15 years, it begins to turn colder. A Warm PDO ALSO favors More Atlantic Hurricanes (LOOK AT SANDY) that make landfall, and MORE GREENLAND BLOCKING, WHICH LETS IN THAT COLD AIR AND MORE SNOWSTORMS.

SO, For this winter, to sum it all up, the pattern really starts to LOCK in around Christmas this year so it seems, with the AO/NAO..etc. starting to go Negative hinting and more SUSTAINED COLD. Warmer then Average SST's in the Atlantic will diminish, and blocking will begin to setup over Greenland (sustained) and Gulf of Alaska allowing that cold air in. The Jet stream will feature a more N-S Split of the two then usual, which will continue to allow for more of these Nor'Easters to form because it carries and allows them to form in the Gulf and ride the coast up. AS I SAID WEEKS AGO, I still believe, that ONCE this winter locks in, and that pattern is set - we will be IN winter for a while and locked in.

SO, JUST SOME TECHNICAL INFO ON OUR CLIMATE. THIS ALSO HAPPENS TO BE WHAT DILLON AND I ARE STUDYING IN SCIENCE RESEARCH, AND WE HAVE THE GREAT PRIVELAGE TO WORK WITH Joe D'aleo who was a founder of the Weather Channel, and professor, and is a leading meteorologist in the world and expert on this type of stuff. So, IF ANYBODY HAS QUESTIONS - ASK AWAY!
PS - I HAVE ATTACHED AN IMAGE EXPLAINING WHAT I AM TALKING ABOUT - NOT MY IMAGE, IT IS FROM JOE D'ALEO'S AWESOME PAPER!

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NOW ONTO THE WEATHER!

VERY ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER COMING UP - Right off the bat, we have POTENTIALLY THREE Systems to come THROUGH THE AREA between now and Christmas.

-1ST Low Pressure Forms out in midwest from the mess left over from the storms that hit the West Coast. RIGHT NOW, it goes over the Great lakes, sorta gets diminished and reforms once well away from us, but there is ALOT of other things involved with this, and I have a feeling we may get a bit more of it then we think right now. As of now though, just some showers from it Tuesday afternoon/Night.

-2ND Possible Nor'Easter SUNDAY-MONDAY of next week, this could be a snow maker, but it is still to early to tell...IT MUST BE WATCHED THOUGH, as the Pattern WILL BE SETTING IN FOR COLDER AIR TO BE DOMINANT AND CONSISTENT.

-3RD CHRISTMAS! YES, THERE IS A POSSIBLE SYSTEM THAT COULD AFFECT US ON CHRISTMAS...So, it is still over 10 days out so HARD to tell, but the POSSIBILITY IS THERE. Must ALSO be watched!!!!!!!

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TONIGHT - Lows near 32*, clear...not much going on
SUNDAY - Highs high 30's, to low 40's...colder inland and North as you get into Boston Area, Sunny.
MONDAY - Sunny, Highs near 40*
TUESDAY - Sunny then turning Cloudy, Highs in low 40's. Rain Showers in afternoon - evening, will clear out during the night.
WEDNESDAY - BRIEF WARMUP, Highs mid to HIGH 40's, Mostly Cloudy though, maybe some sun peeking through as system exits to the East.
THURSDAY - COLDER, Highs barely reaching high 30's, stuck in Low to MID 30's. Sunny.
FRIDAY - Highs just about at freezing, 30-33*, Sunny.

Have a nice night folks!