Monday Evening Update - Quick Rain Update

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Updated: 0055z/20:55/08:55PM

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TONIGHT - Temperatures going down to upper 40's, a bit windy with rain showers and t-storms becoming more steady as the night wears on. WATCH for localized flooding in low spots.

TUESDAY - Steady rain should begin to taper off late morning into the afternoon, Lets keep in mind that some of the models have it sticking around past 2pm and tapering off late afternoon, clouds will stick around though clearing through the night as High pressure builds. Highs a tad warmer then today, around 60-62°

WEDNESDAY - A bit warmer, highs in the mid 60's, partly cloudy, a bit breezy, High pressure continues to build into the area.

THURSDAY - Partly cloudy, highs again in mid to upper 60's, not as windy...small chance of a shower or two but doubting it right now.

------------------------FORECAST DISCUSSION--------------------------

As waves of low pressure/shortwaves continue to move along the frontal boundary to the south of us, a more organized mass of rain showers, some t-storms and steady rain will develop tonight and last through the night into tomorrow afternoon before tapering off tomorrow night. Locally heavy rainfall will be possible, the heaviest rain should follow a line from Philly --> NYC northern Suburbs --> Boston before it all ends. CURRENTLY here in Irvington we have recorded 1.03" rain today, and 2.79" rain yesterday (sunday) bringing our total for this system to 3.82"...BASED on the current models, and meso-analysis of the system, I really do think along that line mentioned above, another 1 to 2" of rain before Wednesday will not be uncommon, with totals from the system coming close to or exceeding 5".

 

 As of yesterday morning at 10am, we were at 33% the normal precipitation for the month of May. By midnight last night, we had jumped to 94% of our normal precipitation for May, so that was good good catch up, although ideally it would have been better to have had it spread out over the entire month.

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Oki doki, watch for flooding tomorrow in low spots, enjoy the cool weather, and remember umbrellas! Have a nice night smile emoticon

Sunday Afternoon Update - Here come the DELAYED rains!

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Updated: 1945z/15:45/3:45PM

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REST OF TODAY - Rain showers and localized heavy downpours/t-storms as well as possible HAIL and high wind gusts will move across the area in response to the cold front trudging its way through well to the west of us. Rains will become more organized as evening progresses. Temps maxing out around 80° WATCH FOR FLOODING. FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TONIGHT - Cold front passes in the late evening probably between 7-9pm, watch those temps plummet into high 50's low 60's across much of the area north of NYC northern suburbs.

MONDAY - Rain for much of the day heavy at times, watch for localized flooding as 1-3" across the area of rain can be expected with this system from late tonight through Tuesday night.. Highs Monday in the HIGH 50's maybe reaching 60-62°

TUESDAY - Watch for Thunderstorms and rain in the morning into the afternoon possible as the system exits to the east, then maybe some partial clearing and the sun should peak out in the late afternoon - need some things to come into play for this to happen so lets wait and seer], highs in the low to mid 60's.

WEDNESDAY - High pressure builds into the area behind the storm system and drier cooler air comes in, Highs in the mid to high 60's maybe up to 70°, clouds in and out and watch for some wind.

--------------------------FORECAST DISCUSSION------------------------

OKI Doki very potent system we got moving into place, lets get into the rains - for the next 2-3 days!!!

Cold front will continue to move southward, right now it is just about 35-50 miles north of us, anyway it will continue southward through the afternoon and will move to the south of us by late tonight - now, if it were just this cold front then the rains would be short and sweet - BUT, big BUT, we have waves of low pressure that will form along the frontal boundary and move NE from the Jersey/Baltimore region through our region and into New England lasting through, AT THE VERY LEAST late late Monday night - but likely into Tuesday afternoon if things shape up well. WE NEED this rain - THAT being said, the ground is dry, and flooding will occur so watch out, especially getting into the Mid Hudson valley and CT/MA border down into Jersey where 2-4" of rain could fall over the next 2-3 days. NYC and Northern Suburbs, including LI and along the Jersey coastline, CT coastline and southern N.E a bit less rain, but still 1-3" with localized higher amounts.

For the immediate afternoon, instability is increasing as we speak as the cold front enhances the lift in front (south) of it, mL Cape is 1200-1800 should increase to 2200-2500 j/kg before decreasing as the Front moves to the south of us...lots of precipitable in the air in excess of 2" across the area will feed the system, and with low winds out of the lower level jet these storms will sit...sit and sit.

Low pressure moves along the front getting into Monday and a shortwave NRG moving across will increase that lift, so watch ot for more heavy rain although not as many t-storms, NE flow develops as High pressure moves into the region Monday night into Tuesday and cooler air/drier - in the mid 60's to low 70's comes into place for much of the week.

SO...this is all good rain to help our dry spell, BUT be careful for any flooding! Models continue to show more rain for the end of the week getting into next week as well, so we will keep an eye on that! Graphics below to show some of the things talked about here smile emoticon have a nice rest of Sunday!

Friday Night Weather Update

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Updated: 0115z/21:15/09:15PM

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TONIGHT - Cloudy with some spotty showers possible, then as cold air filters through changing over to some snow showers. Lows near 30°.

SATURDAY - Snow showers/light snow developing in the morning around 9-10 and lasting throughout the day on and off, light accumulation, more as you get East and on LI. See map below.

SUNDAY - Sunny, highs in the low 40's.

MONDAY - Highs in the mid 40's, sunny, maybe a scattered shower.

--------------------------FORECAST DISCUSSION------------------------

Active day on Saturday! An Upper air disturbance will move across the area tonight and interact with a developing coastal storm tomorrow spreading snow showers/light snow back to just about the Hudson River, with accumulations of 2-4" through SE New England, maybe even some localized 3-6" on Long Island not impossible!

Sunday through Tuesday should be nice, sunny or partly cloudy highs in the mid 40's maybe into 50's as High Pressure settles over the area.

A couple clippers to watch for Wednesday and Thursday maybe, and still watching a potential biggie storm for Easter weekend. Whether or not it is rain or snow or both is still to be decided, and we will not talk about it in depth until Wednesday or Thursday at the least.

Wednesday Evening Weather Update - Winter Storm coming!

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Updated: 0117z/21:17/09:17PM

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TONIGHT - Lows in the low teens, clear, guys the clear spots and brisk wind will keep things nice n crisp and cold tonight!

THURSDAY - Highs in the low to mid 30's MAYBE just maybe up to 40° for some, clear and less windy.

FRIDAY - Cloudy temperatures in the low 30's, snow beginning between 1 and 3pm as of now as the storm approaches, snow will probably have a bit of a hard time sticking at first. Snow continuing through the afternoon into the night.

SATURDAY - Any snow will have ended overnight, total accumulations on the map below. Temperatures in the low to mid 40's.

--------------------------FORECAST DISCUSSION------------------------

A disturbance in the plains will continue to drop rain over the southern Plains and Southeast tonight and tomorrow, and at the same time NRG will drop down from Canada, developing our storm in the Carolina's region Thursday night into Friday. WHERE this NRG hooks up with our developing storm will dictate the exact track and whether or not it is able to make the left turn up the Coast and closer to us. FOR NOW, THOUGH this storm should make it to the Lower Hudson Valley, as it will likely interact with a very strong upper low feature around Hudson Bay...Now, that being said we will have to watch how much moisture makes it up into the area and how close to the coast the coastal low forms. Some of the models have it "reforming" into a nice and more powerful low off the LI coast, which would throw precip back. IN ANY CASE, the low is a CLOSED LOOP low, meaning most of the Precip will be N/NW of the track of the low. Right now this is just to the south of us - it would not take much for it to come a bit north.
Snow will be heavy, as the temperatures are marginally cold enough to support snow. Timing is Friday afternoon through late Friday night for all points east of NYC.

FIRST CALL MAP BELOW.

Longer range outlook, still looking to stay well below average temperatures for the next several weeks, and plenty of storm options. Whether or not they are rain or snow or both is still to be decided, but definitely storms on the horizon.

Dillon and I will be posting a winter Recap in the next few days and then in a couple weeks our spring outlook.

hAVE A GREAT NIGHT!

Monday Evening Weather Update

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Updated: 0105z/21:05/09:05PM

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TONIGHT - Lows in the upper 30's to low 40°, cloudy with a few spotty showers after midnight as a vigorous cold front begins to move through.

TUESDAY - Warmer ahead of the cold front highs near 50° maybe a spotty shower or two, THEN as the cold front comes through - could we be looking at some snow showers or a snow squall? MAYBE...its a very vigurous change in the atmosphere. 

WEDNESDAY - Windy behind the cold front, pressure gradient very big as a wave develops offshore and High pressure settles over us. Cold too highs in mid 30's. Typical of mid to late January.

THURSDAY - Highs near 40° Mostly sunny.

--------------------------FORECAST DISCUSSION------------------------

FUN FACT: Some Places in Northern Kansas and Nebraska reached into the 80's and 90's today! Will we ever reach that? Well at least not for the next month!

A vigorous cold front will move through late tonight into tomorrow afternoon, with a small wave developing off of it. Some rain showers and some possible snow showers on and off then as the wave deepens offshore, winds will kick up from the pressure gradient.

NOW, I know A LOT of you will hate to hear this - but yes, snow is in the realms of possibility, big possibility for Friday into Saturday. Timing, precipitation, amounts, all that stuff is still to be decided. BUT, all signs are pointing to the possibility of a nice big storm. 

The NAO and AO will go negative, as will the EPO while the WPO will be near nuetral and the PNA positive. THIS IS EXACTLY WHAT WE WANT FOR A BIG STORM! Blocking should set up over Greenland, and that will help slow down the storm coming. Now the track will be very dependent as that will decide the precip type and amounts for us. Right now we want it a bit north to give us heavier snow. 

?????????P.S. - JUST A HINT, OR OBSERVATION, BUT Comparing the data for this potential storm, to that of the March 1993 Blizzard - they are looking very similar. ??????

HAVE A GREAT NIGHT GUYS!

Tuesday Evening Winter Storm Update

Updated: 0030z/19:30/07:31PM

*****Emergency Alert for the Period NOW until Tomorrow Morning*****

Guys Obviously this front thump of snow has overachieved in everyway. Currently recording almost 5" at my house, and a friend in White Plains has the same recording. White Plains Airport is at 4.9" officially as of 7pm.

Please, please be careful - now we are changing over to an Ice/Freezing Rain/Sleet Mix and it will stay like this for the next SEVERAL hours before changing to plain rain around or after midnight.

Anymore Accumulations should be between 1-3" of this mess, maybe a bit more.

FORECAST

TONIGHT - ICE/freezing rain/sleet/snow continuing before changing over around midnight to rain. Additional Accumulations 1-3" if not more. Temps around freezing.

TOMORROW - Rain and dense fog, rain may be heavy at times in the morning, but doubtfull. The GROUND will be below freezing so WATCH out for Ice!!!!! GONNA be a really MESSY morning.
A lull in the precipitation as cold front comes through and storm pulls away, our second wave forming.

TOMORROW NIGHT - Rain turning to ice to all snow by midnight and continuing, temps in the mid to high 20's.

THURSDAY - Snow in the morning through afternoon tapering off in the evening. Could be significant accumulations. Temps in the high 20's.

FRIDAY - Frigid watch for rapid freezup highs in the low 20's.

FORECAST DISCUSSION

A rapidly deepening low pressure system will continue to move across Southern Canada and take over with rain after midnight tonight. As it pulls out tomorrow a wave will form off the bucket loads of moisture along the frontal boundary (cold/warm air) Where this frontal boundary will determine the exact trend of the heaviest snows, but it seems that the Arctic Air coming behind it will be enough to suppress the axis of heaviest precipitation along NYC to Philly. We would once again be on the northern edge of the heavy (ish) snows. Right now I am calling for 3-5" with a possibility of going down and up. Dillon thinks 1-2". What should be noted is that as the storm intensifies, much like today, the snow ratios will bump up especially from the air rapidly cooling. We can expect 12:1 ratios and maybe 15:1 if lucky. Also keep in mind that the heaviest snows are NYC to Philly - NYC is less then 30 miles away. It would really not take MUCH for us to get in the heavier snows again. An example is that Yonkers has a Winter Storm Warning for 4-8" of snow, and here in Irvington we have no warning and just 2-4" of snow. Not far to move!. however as of now this is the forecast. You could say Dillon scored a "coup" I still have my doubts though!

This second half of the storm should continue into Thursday afternoon and evening. Initial first call snow map is below.

Guys, even if we do not get 8-12" with the next batch of snow - it will be very icey, very dangerous tomorrow into Thursday afternoon. This is NOT a storm to take lightly, especially because of its long duration.

Ok thats it for now! Be back later if need be

 

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Monday Evening Upcoming Storm(s) Weather Update

Updated: 0100z/20:00/08:00PM

FORECAST

TONIGHT - Pretty much clear, lows in the low teens to single digits maybe in far northern and northwest areas of NY and New England.

TUESDAY - Clear skies will give way to thickening clouds, temperatures in the high 20's to right around 32°, Snow and sleet developing in the LATE afternoon (SEE SNOW MAP), 1-3" (could change, but we doubt it) into the evening and nighttime.

TUESDAY NIGHT - Snow/sleet changing over to ice/sleet/rain and finally all rain by Wednesday morning, nighttime temps around freezing...WATCH out this could be a SERIOUS ice situation as ground is frozen, and a lot OF cold air around...

WEDNESDAY - Ice/wintry mix changing over to all rain in the morning (around rush hour probably maybe a bit sooner/later) will continue throughout the morning, may be a bit heavy at times... Should be a lull in the precipitation during the afternoon as the Initial [storm] moves out then starting again in the evening. Temps in the high 30's to low 40's.

THURSDAY - We have a BIG potential to waking up with NEW snow on the ground and snow falling, as a new wave forms off the back of the Lake Cutter and comes through Wednesday Night through Thursday afternoon/evening...We WILL have cold air in place and this could be a BIG storm...we will keep you posted.

FRIDAY - COLLD Rapid freez up Thursday night, Highs in the low to mid 20's, mostly sunny.

FORECAST DISCUSSION

We have a VERY wild week ahead! A bit of a break today and most of tomorrow before our next storm arrives. A lake cutter will form and move across the area. Since the Center of the Low pressure will be FAR to the N and W of us, it will be a mostly rain event - HOWEVER, we have plenty of cold air in place so watch out for a big THUMP of snow Tuesday evening into the night 1-3" locally 2-4" before a changeover to rain/sleet/ice into Wednesday morning then all rain Wednesday. NOW the interesting part - a brief lull in the precipitation HOWEVER, bucket loads of moisture with this system, and the models have been insistant on another wave forming along the Arctic Frontal Boundary. Cold front will come through Wednesday night, new shot of colder air, and a new wave will form to the SW of us and move ALONG that frontal boundary towards us. THIS would be our all snow event, or Rain to ALL snow event starting Wednesday night and lasting through Thursday Afternoon likely. At this point accumulations could be anywhere from 5 to 10" although that could change. WHEREVER this front boundary sets up is where the axis of heaviest snows will be. If I take an average from ALL the 6 models with snowfall maps, that gives NYC metro area and northern Suburbs 6-8" snow. A wet heavy snow too.

So keep an eye out for our posts - wild week ahead. More cold for Friday as well with a flash freeze Thursday night.

***THE SNOW MAP IS ONLY FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING***

HAVE A GREAT NIGHT!

*****SATURDAY 10pm UPDATE - WILD WEEK AHEAD GUYS, REALLY WILD*****

FIRST, Quick moving quick hitting THUMP of snow late tomorrow afternoon through Monday late morning. A small but somewhat potent system will move through the Ohio valley tonight into tomorrow and then across the area tomorrow evening throughout the night before moving out late Monday morning. NOW, alotta the weather sites saying 1-3" or 2-4" total...GUYS Sorry BUT NOT GONNA BE THAT WAY! Rain snow as well...Nope its gonna be all snow, MAYBE a bit of ice on the backside..

SECONDLY...Mesoscale Banding - VERY important in this storm, maybe more so then in other storms. The models are showing a large amount of southerly winds (flowing to the north) on the warm side of the Arctic air boundary...the models are showing this continue as the storm moves over us. WHERE the edge of this warm wind and cold air meet BOOM thats where we will really get that thumping. NOW the models cannot accuraterly depict this, so they are saying 4-6" (.4-.6" QPF), but wherever those bands set up could easily bring that up 4-8" or 6-10"...NOW, that could be high, Dillon and I think a safe thing to assume is 4-8" for almost all north of NYC...read map to see details

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NEXT STORM...OMG so much to talk about this, but will wait until Monday to give all the details...Timing likely Tuesday night through Wednesday night maybe into Thursday morning but that could change. It would be Snow to ice to rain to ice to snow to all snow and could be a lotta snow if this holds up - models trending colder by the day! Goodbye brief warmup!

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SOO.. still slowly creeping back to normal ISH temperatures in the next couple weeks, but the models are holding fast for below average temps at least next 40 days...soo we will keep you updated!
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TONIGHT - Cold lows in low teens to around 10°, clear, but getting cloudy.

SUNDAY - Cloudy with light snow developing between 3-6pm changing to a heavier more steady snow during the late evening through the nighttime. Highs in the mid to high 20's. WATCH out for that thumping, talked about above in the afternoon.

SUNDAY NIGHT - Snow, HEAVY at times with THUMPING possible, maybe changing to ice/sleet for a brief period at the end. The storm will be outta hear by lunchtime the LATEST in NYC, most likely between 7-9am.

MONDAY - Snow ending between 7-9am, highs in the low 30's

TUESDAY - Cloudy highs in the high 20's to low 30's...storm approaching at night, more on this later.

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HAVE A GREAT NIGHT

********WEDNESDAY EVENING 8:30PM UPDATE**********

Sorry about no update last night, Dillon and me were both very busy, and we did not feel there was enough to make a meaningful post. Its been a quiet week!

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Feels warm past couple of days right! SLOWLY, ever so slowly we are trending (barely noticeable) back to "average" temperatures...Now the question is will we get back to Average or ABOVE average? At least in the next 2 weeks - We doubt it. Maybe a few small warm ups here and there for a couple hours...but overall models trending Below to WELL below average for the next several days, into the 2-3 week margin...maybe even through the next 45 days?

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Many storms on the horizon, first big one would be Sunday to maybe Tuesday, likely Sunday night - Monday night. Right now Rain/ice to snow maybe back to rain or all snow...many details to workout too early too say much.

Tomorrow morning chance of light snow and some snow showers as a system passes to the south. Little to no accumulation for us.

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TONIGHT - Lows near 10° progressively colder North and NW of NYC. Clear but becoming cloudy as the night goes on.

THURSDAY - Possible Light snow/snow showers (Most likely some flurries - BUT) No accumulations likely. Highs in the low to mid 20's.

FRIDAY - Highs in the mid 20's, some sun some clouds.

SATURDAY - Sunny highs near 30°, overall a pleasant day smile emoticon

HAVE A GREAT NIGHT GUYS!

**********8:00PM UPDATE SUNDAY************

Guys, this is an extremely tricky storm to forecast - so bear with us. We are sorry for the lack of updates this weekend, we were both out of town and without computers - hard to do updates without them! ANYWAY, we are back so lets get to the weather!

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This storm is NOT a big snowmaker for us, rather a much BIGGER Icemaker...We are ON that line as usual though, of the cold and more snow...So, 20-30 mile changes - EVEN LESS then that, COULD MEAN BIG changes for us.

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TIMING - Freezing rain/sleet will break out tonight if not before midnight by midnight, continue through the morning and change over to snow late morning/midday. Light Snow will continue through the afternoon, probably not too heavy. Icing will continue as well mixing a bit with snow through the evening. It will change back to all snow and continue through Monday night ending between 1-4am or a bit before...generally very very early hours of Tuesday.

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ACCUMULATIONS 

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BIGGEST HAZARD - ICE ICE ICE....THERE IS A MUCH MUCH GREATER CHANCE OF ICE WITH THIS SYSTEM THEN LAST, BECAUSE TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE QUITE AS COLD. GROUND TEMPS HOWEVER WILL BE WELL BELOW FREEZING - WE ALL KNOW WHAT HAPPENS THEN - IT FREEZES ON CONTACT.

With Snow NOT changing over until LATER in the DAY MONDAY, and temperatures not going BELOW freezing until AFTER MIDDAY, ICING WILL BE A VERY BAD PROBLEM for the Morning commute, and EVEN the Afternoon/EVENING commute which will be EVEN MORE dangerous as it changes back to a wet, sleety, icy snow.

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Temperatures tomorrow will be JUST around or UNDER 32°, even into Upper 20's if we are lucky. North of I84, you will be mostly snow, even north of I287. Temperatures will begin to drop after lunchtime and continue dropping to low to mid 20's by nightfall - ANY Wet/melted ground will freeze up..on top of any ice that formed.

AGAIN, THIS IS NOT A BIG SNOWMAKER FOR US...MUCH MORE OF AN ICE MAKER - WHICH IS MUCH WORSE.

********5PM SATURDAY UPDATE*********

Ok, Dillon and I have both been out this weekend in DC and Boston, so it is hard to post - we will do short updates for the Sunday-Monday storm.

THIS STORM IS LOOKING A BIT LIKE LAST WEEKS STORM GUYS.

Models have been trending a bit south today, we shall see with the 18z runs if this holds true.

Right now heaviest snows again in eastern New England and interior NY. BOSTON could receive up to 2'!!!!!!!!!

TIMING - Late Sunday afternoon/evening into Monday night.

Accumulations - CANNOT MAKE A MAP NOW, SO- NYC and south to central NJ, 1-3" at best. SIGNIFICANT ice problem is possible. NYC To i287/ Briarcliff, 3-6" with 4-8" localized amounts - this follows through southern CT/northern PA along the border and providence RI. North of all this, 6-10" localized 8-12" amounts. Boston to Albany and north about 100-150 miles ish 12-18" localized higher amounts of 18-24".

ANY movement north or south even 20-50 miles will have HUGE impacts on temps and accumulations. 20-30 miles south puts US in irvington in the 6-10" range, 20-30 miles north and we get nada.

Icing will be a slight problem between NYC and I287 as well.

It's going to be a messy, icky storm, much like last weeks storm.

More updates later from either Dillon or I. 

HAVE A GREAT NIGHT! Any questions ask in the comments or pm me or Dillon.

*******MONDAY EVENING UPDATE ON WEEK AHEAD (WILD ONE?)*********

FIRST OFF, DILLON AND ME ARE VERY PROUD WITH HOW THIS STORM WORKED OUT AND OUR FORECAST - PRETTY MUCH SPOT ON. WE KNEW THAT COLD AIR WOULD STICK AROUND AND THIS STORM WOULD PRODUCE MORE SNOW THEN THE LIQUID STUFF THAT WE ALL HATE wink emoticon

SECONDLY - This next couple weeks COULD go down as the SNOWIEST two weeks for New England and parts of the NorthEast...if that gives you a hint at what is going on!
FLASH FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT! FOLKS TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY DROP AND THE WINDS WILL PICK UP. ANY STANDING WATER, MELTED SNOW, UNTREATED SURFACES, ETC WILL FREEZE UP! BE CAREFUL DRIVING, WALKING, GOING OUTSIDE!
******- 3 POTENTIAL STORMS ON THE WAY FOLKS! FIRST ONE FOR THURSDAY/FRIDAY AND THEN 2 MORE NEXT WEEK...AT THE VERY LEAST.********

We Still have details to work out with the storm for Thursday/Friday but KEEP YOUR EYES OUT for posts from us as we will have all the latest details!

TONIGHT - Temps falling to low teens/upper single digits for many and even down into the negatives North and NW of the City. Any snow showers will wrap up and end, skies gradually clearing.

TUESDAY - Highs in the LOW to MID 20's, I DOUBT we will reach 30°! WATCH FOR ICED UP SURFACES!!!! Partly cloudy, becoming sunnier as day goes on. WINDS will stay up there folks!

WEDNESDAY - Some Snow showers are possible during the day, Otherwise partly cloudy and Highs near 32°.

THURSDAY - Possible storm coming during the afternoon/evening into friday. STILL too early to really tell, more details tomorrow and Wednesday.

**********THURSDAY EVENING UPDATIO**********

A nice and healthy clipper will start to move in tonight spreading Light snow in the area bringing an inch to two inches for us, while areas to the North and NE will get slightly more, 3-4" on top of some areas who got 30"+ from the Blizzard. Redevelopment/Intensification of the low as it hits the Water in the Gulf of Maine will throw some precip back into New England giving Areas just north of Boston (Gloucester/Amsebury area) a good extra 2-3" on top of the 3" from the initial snow of the clipper tomorrow and into tomorrow night. MAINE People - watch out another 6-12" or more coming your way as the low redevelops and forms a closed loop, the negative trough will bring a good amount of Atlantic Moisture up into the area and fuel the snow.

****UPDATED SNOW MAP BELOW FOR THE CLIPPER***

Sunday to Monday night STORM STILL WAFFLING ON THE MODELS....So no definitive ideas yet. The models HAVE been trending with a more southerly track putting Places north of NYC on the edge of snowfall, 3-6"....STILL TO EARLY TO MAKE DEFINITIVE FORECAST THOUGH FOLKS, SO DO NOT WORRY YET.

Another System on the Horizon for next Thursday. Still unclear what will happen with it, so no worries.

************FORECAST**************

TONIGHT - COLDD, in the low to mid teens, maybe low 20's along the coast. Clipper arrives in a few hours, light snow/snow showers, another burst around daybreak possible so watch for rush hour tomorrow. SEE SNOW MAP.

TOMORROW - Some lingering light snow/snow showers in the morning tapering off and skies become partly cloudy to sunny Highs in the mid 20's - COLD SHOT TOMORROW NIGHT, GUYS BRUTAL BRUTAL COLD!!!

SATURDAY - Highs in the low to mid 20's, Sunny, brisk wind in the morning probably will die as the day goes on. 

THANKS AGAIN TO WEATHERBELL AND RYAN FOR LETTING US UTILIZE THESE AMAZING MODELS!

*******BLIZZARD ANALYSIS - WHAT WENT WRONG, WHAT WE COULD DO BETTER**********

******OK SINCE I GOT SOME REQUESTS FOR AN ANALYSIS OF THE STORM HERE IT IS FOR ANYBODY WHO WANTS TO UNDERSTAND WHAT HAPPENED. IF YOU ARE CONFUSED JUST ASK*******

FIRST OFF - I am seeing some articles saying that favoring one model was the main reason for this forecast bust. Sorry folks, but there were other reasons, outlined below that EVERYBODY missed - not just the models. We cannot blame computers for everything!

STORM HISTORY: The Storm formed further to the SW than originally thought and what was shown on the models, just to the east of South Carolina and with a more negative tilted trough axis. I think this led many to believe (including Dillon and I) that this would cause it to hug the coast more as it came up and then deepen and strengthen a bit sooner so that by the time it got up to LI it would stall and send those strong snows for a longer period of time. We should have seen this a bit on the Euro, as it hinted in the 12z model run on Monday that there would be a 30+" band over NYC through Central CT. If the storm had gone according to plan this would have been quite possible. 
The storm Storm moved East of Hatteras, NC but further West then models saw and that is when got those initial bands of heavy snow in the afternoon over LI and Southern CT and Westchester, part of NJ and PA as the clipper finished transferring its energy over to the developing storm. 
The storm moved up as planned, stalled as planned blah blah. 

So where did we get caught?

WHAT HAPPENED - First off, the Boundary between the Arctic air bleeding off the HP and the warmer air boundary was where it should have been the whole time, as shown on the models and upper air progs/surface maps and satellite, and the storm DID form along it as it should have. This made me believe even more it would follow a more westerly track as that’s where it would form and the Boundary was over NY. 
Once the storm got SE of LI though I noticed on the upper air progs we ran into trouble. All the models I think (that were printing out 24+” snow) were assuming this storm would:

(1) close off the trough at 700mb and then that would enable the heaviest snows to be focus N/NW of the low track (hence why I thought those bands S of Boston would move West) This storm SHOULD HAVE this by 6-8pm in order for anybody WEST of NY/CT Border to get the big snows. 

(2) The trough at 500mb did not close nearly in time, which should have been after midnight so that the storm would slow down and stall more throwing back more snow. It EVENTUALLY did this Early Tuesday morning (When we got that band of snow this morning).

(3) The trough (dip in the jet stream) was SO inverted even when it got up here that it allowed a ton of air to sink over into it over PA and around me over NY/CT border. This PROBABLY contributed to the precipitation being “dried” out of the storm on the WESTERN SIDE of the Precipitation shield as all this air rose and then had to sink elsewhere. If anybody was watching the radar at the time, it looked like a wall of snow JUST to the east of NYC and it was barely moving west, or looked like it was being eaten/squished up East of the Hudson.

(4) The rising warmer air and the sinking colder air around us PROBABLY contributed to more condensation which led to more latent heat and then the clouds just keep on floating up like balloons. (Clouds warmer then air around them) 

SO TO SUM IT ALL UP: The precipitation shield was just being eaten away as it came farther west, and then that combined with the sudden track trend east at like 2am led to the precipitation being lost over us. The low became to progressive and then got captured too late for us folks east of CT. Looks like NYC got a decent band late at night, and LI just kept getting pounded as the ocean probably helped with setting up those extreme bands of snow. In fact, another thing interested about the inverted trough – usually don’t see that sort of mesoscale extreme weather in winter…but hey Mother Nature does what mother nature wants. 

WHAT COULD WE HAVE DONE BETTER: 

1 - In the future, we will now look at, in much more detail the realtime data, IE Radar, Satellite, Water Vapor loops and upper air progs so that we can see what the storm is actually doing instead of what the model wants it to do.

2 - Do not lean towards/favor one model - pay more attention to trends on other models and combine them into our forecasts.

3- Look for the tiniest details, because they can be the biggest game changers!

This storm was always "TOO GOOD" to be true. It is amazing how PERFECTLY the variables have to add up to get a storm like this. One little thing can change everything.

HAVE A GOOD NIGHT FOLKS, THANKS FOR LISTENING, AND IF YOU HAVE ANY QUESTIONS - ASK!

*********2PM UPDATE - OR SHOULD I SAY APOLOGY?************

Obviously at this point in the day the storm is moving out, and many of you are probably wondering what happened. There is not much more for me to add from what Dillon posted, but I do want to explain something:

When you have multiple models, and one of them being the one that is most widely trusted and regarded as the best telling you that a massive storm will affect your area and drop 20+" for 3 or 4 CONSECUTIVE days (6-8 models runs or more) then generally that plays out as it said it would. But it must be understood that Mother nature will do what she does. This storm formed further SW then the models predicted, and had a more negative tilt. The Arctic Air boundary, which it was forming along was also fairly west over NY. These observations on the radar and satellite led many to believe that it would continue to be a bit further west then the models had, and stay around longer with the more negative tilt. It was still further west then expected with OUR LAST update Last night @ 10:20pm. So why suddenly after 2am did it shift east? This is not known, at least to me yet...but I will be finding out. EVEN when the 0z Euro model came out at 1:30am...it had us still getting 12-18". 

This does not mean however that Dillon, me, or any other meteorologists forecast for 20+" NYC and North was right and should not take blame. It was wrong. We understand that. Busts happen though, and we cannot control that. Dillon and I spent 18+ hours (you can check the phone log) on the phone in the last 4 days talking about the storm and our forecasts, all the different ways it could go, amounts, etc...everything was used to make the forecast, plus 2 hours of research and writing each post...but hey what can you do. 

SO, We are sorry for any inconvenience this may have caused. We hope you continue to view our page for Weather forecasts/updates.

If anybody continues to have questions as to why this happened, then email me, or private message me. 

FOR THOSE OF YOU EAST OF THE CT RIVER, and on Long Island - WELL LUCKY YOU, because you are the big winners with this storm. 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

NOW, onto the next few day/week.

TODAY - MAYBE a few stray snow here and there otherwise snow ending and clouds clearing out late, still a bit windy steady in mid to low 20's.

WEDNESDAY - Partly cloudy becoming mostly sunny highs in the high 20's still a bit windy.

THURSDAY - Partly cloudy Highs steady around 30°, clouds arriving at night, maybe some light snow during the night as we have a possible clipper coming by.

FRIDAY - Maybe some snow in the morning with a passing clipper, otherwise Cloudy highs in the low 30's.

We have a possible event for Next Sunday into Monday. We will not start coverage on this until Friday at the earliest most likely. 

*********7:30 PM UPDATE**********

SORRY A TAD LATE! 
ANYWAY!

AGAIN, THANK YOU TO ALL OF YOU WHO SUPPORT US!

IN CASE YOU DID NOT SEE THE ARTICLE:
http://www.lohud.com/story/news/2015/01/26/armchair-meteorologists/22350937/

SO....WHATS GOING ON WITH THE STORM!? ITS RIGHT ON TRACK FOLKS! DILLON AND I, WHILE EXCITED AND NERVOUS, ARE CONFIDENT WITH THE FORECAST. WE WILL NOT BE ISSUING A NEW SNOW MAP, AS WE FEEL THE ONE ALREADY POSTED WILL DO JUST FINE.

SO! The Storm actually began to form a BIT further South and West then anticipated, so the HEAVY precip MAY take a BIT longer to arrive!...BUT THIS IS GOOD! The Severly NEGATIVE TILT of this means It should NOT go further East then expected, and will stick around for a bit longer as well. Once the storm bombs out it will stall SE of Long island, again as expected.

HEAVIEST SNOWS STILL LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW AFTERNOON FOLKS.

THE WHOLE THING SHOULD BE OUTTA HERE LATE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.

BLIZZARD CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW.

BE BACK LATER!

********SATURDAY EVENING UPDATE - GUYS ANOTHER POTENTIAL STORM ON THE WAY*********

********SATURDAY EVENING UPDATE - GUYS ANOTHER POTENTIAL STORM ON THE WAY*********

ONE STORM DONE, AND ANOTHER ON THE WAY! 

A Clipper will be moving through the area Sunday Night into Monday, and at the same time a Coastal Storm will be moving up the coast. NOW, when they intersect there is a HUGE POTENTIAL for them to BOMB and create a pretty darn big storm. 

RIGHT NOW, timing would be Monday Afternoon through Tuesday Night, POSSIBLY Wednesday Morning.

POTENTIAL IS BIG HERE FOLKS - MOST MODELS AGREEING ON A HUGE SNOW. GRANTED, A LOT CAN CHANGE IN THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS, ********SO THIS IS IN NO WAY A FORECAST*******

JUST A HINT - THAT IF THE 3 DIFFERENT MODELS (WHO ARE MORE OR LESS IN AGREEMENT) #'S PAN OUT - WE COULD BE LOOKING AT QUITE A HISTORIC STORM FOR ANYBODY EAST OF THE HUDSON RIVER.

THERE WILL BE NO QUESTION ABOUT RAIN/SNOW WITH THIS STORM - IT WILL BE ALL SNOW IF IT COMES TO FRUITION. 

KEEP AN EYE OUT ON THE UPDATES COMING FROM THIS PAGE.

OTHER NEWS - INTENSE COLD COMING, Guys this could DEFINITELY rival the cold we saw a few weeks ago. Arctic Front will move through TOMORROW night and usher in a potential 15 DAYS OF WELL BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS!....

Get ready - WINTER HAS STARTED!!!

**********************FORECAST*********************

TONIGHT - Rain/snow showers ending before midnight, colder in the low to mid 20's - WATCH FOR BLACK ICE! ANY MELTED SNOW/WATER WILL HAVE A CHANCE TO FREEZE.

SUNDAY - Sunny, Highs in the low to mid 30's and dropping

HAVE A GREAT NIGHT FOLKS!

********MIDDAY SATURDAY UPDATE************

VERY HAPPY TODAY AS I THINK I NAILED THAT FORECAST IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION TYPES AND AMOUNTS, TOTAL SNOWFALL HERE AT MY HOUSE WAS 6.8" IN THE DRIVEWAY NO DRIFTS AWAY FROM TREES... SO RIGHT IN THE 4-8/5-8" THAT I POSTED LAST NIGHT.

NOW...WHATS NEXT!

WELL, TEMPERATURES WILL STAY STEADY IN THE LOW 30'S TODAY, AND AS THE LOW DEEPENS A BIT MORE WE WILL GET ANOTHER LIGHT BOUT OF SNOW/RAIN/SLEET THIS AFTERNOON. - ACCUMULATIONS? PROBABLY LESS THEN AN INCH.

ARCTIC AIR WILL COME IN TOMORROW NIGHT, AND WITH IT A CLIPPER - NOW, THIS CLIPPER RIGHT NOW IS SHOWING UP ON THE MODELS TURNING INTO QUITE A STORM!...IS THIS GOING TO HAPPEN? WELL, 48 HOURS OUT THINGS CAN STILL CHANGE, BUT I AM VERY CONFIDENT WE WILL GET SOME SORT OF SNOW STORM MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

THIS TIME, NO QUESTION ABOUT RAIN/SNOW AS THE STORM WILL HAVE PLENTY OF ARCTIC AIR, AND WILL HAVE DYNAMIC COOLING AS IT DEEPENS.

SHOULD I SAY BLIZZARD? HINT HINT....

ANYWAY MORE DETAILS LATER.

HAVE A GREAT DAY FOLKS AND BE SAFE!

*****12AM UPDATE***LATEST DATA SUGGESTING...MORE SNOW??? READ BELOW!!********

The Latest data present is suggesting that the heaviest bands of snow will fall from Central NJ through Central CT right through the RIVERTOWNS, Danbury, etc. Map here reflecting my latest thoughts.

EVEN NYC Might see their fairshare of snow!!!

******OKI DOKI HERE WE GO EVENING UPDATE FOR POSSIBLE MAJOR WINTER STORM AHEAD***************

THINGS MOVING QUICKLY FOLKS! QUICKLY!

A Low pressure system will move up the coast this evening (Already at Baltimore as we speak) and move NE offshore intensifying VERY RAPIDLY and dropping nearly 40 MILLIBARS IN THE PROCESS! It will then pass just to the East of Nantucket and continue into the gulf of Maine continuing to intensify.

NOW PROBLEMS: This storm is coming BETWEEN the shots of cold air we have been getting and therefore does not have fresh cold air to work with! This HAS been the case with many of the storms we have had this year! NOW, here is the good news! Because of how FAST this storm will intensify once it hits the coast it will ACTUALLY CREATE ITS OWN COLD AIR SO-TO-SPEAK, with Dynamic Cooling as we weather peeps call it. SO, While there may not be the coldest air at the surface, or even aloft, this storm does have the means to create some big snows!

PRECIPITATION TYPES: Areas on the IMMEDIATE COAST WILL experience a good bout of snow, but will likely change quickly over to a rain/sleet/mix tomorrow midday and maybe even plain rain with the possibility of heading back to all snow, but that will DEFINITELY cut down on the precip amounts.
INLAND AREAS closer to coast will experience a mostly ALL SNOW event with some sleet/ice/rain mixing in midday tomorrow, but it should switch back over to snow before heading out. INLAND AREAS AWAY FROM COAST, AN ALL SNOW SOLUTION HERE! 
COASTAL REGIONS AROUND BOSTON! YOU MAY BE IN TROUBLE! See by the time the system gets up to Boston, or off the shore of Boston, it will be INTENSIFYING MUCH SLOWER! SO, NOT AS MUCH DYNAMIC COOLING GOING ON! It will HAVE TO DEAL with whatever COLD AIR IS LEFT, for the most part!. You might be surprised with less snow, OR more???

The GRADIENT of snow on this storm will be steep ON BOTH SIDES! This is NOT an inland storm...SO ALL Y'ALL UP NORTH - SORRY ITS OUR TURN!!!

COULD THIS BE A TOTAL BUST? YES! AND EITHER WAY! IT could end up being 1-3" and RAIN, or 8+" and ALL SNOW!

BOTTOM LINE IS, THIS WILL BE A WET AND HEAVY SNOW REGARDLESS OF WHERE YOU ARE, WITH THE DEFINITE POSSIBILITY OF SOME ICE ON TOP, SO DO NOT BE SURPRISED IF YOU GET SOME CRUST ON TOP OF WET SNOW!

*********I HIGHLY RECOMMEND AGAINST DRIVING TOMORROW OR GOING PLACES IF NORTH OF NYC AND IMMEDIATE COASTAL REGIONS!*******

TOTAL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ON MAP BELOW! 

TIMING - LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW EVENING. DETAILS ON MAP!

SHORT UPDATE COMING BEFORE I GO TO BED, AGAIN TOMORROW MORNING!