Sunday Afternoon Update - Here come the DELAYED rains!

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Updated: 1945z/15:45/3:45PM

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REST OF TODAY - Rain showers and localized heavy downpours/t-storms as well as possible HAIL and high wind gusts will move across the area in response to the cold front trudging its way through well to the west of us. Rains will become more organized as evening progresses. Temps maxing out around 80° WATCH FOR FLOODING. FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TONIGHT - Cold front passes in the late evening probably between 7-9pm, watch those temps plummet into high 50's low 60's across much of the area north of NYC northern suburbs.

MONDAY - Rain for much of the day heavy at times, watch for localized flooding as 1-3" across the area of rain can be expected with this system from late tonight through Tuesday night.. Highs Monday in the HIGH 50's maybe reaching 60-62°

TUESDAY - Watch for Thunderstorms and rain in the morning into the afternoon possible as the system exits to the east, then maybe some partial clearing and the sun should peak out in the late afternoon - need some things to come into play for this to happen so lets wait and seer], highs in the low to mid 60's.

WEDNESDAY - High pressure builds into the area behind the storm system and drier cooler air comes in, Highs in the mid to high 60's maybe up to 70°, clouds in and out and watch for some wind.

--------------------------FORECAST DISCUSSION------------------------

OKI Doki very potent system we got moving into place, lets get into the rains - for the next 2-3 days!!!

Cold front will continue to move southward, right now it is just about 35-50 miles north of us, anyway it will continue southward through the afternoon and will move to the south of us by late tonight - now, if it were just this cold front then the rains would be short and sweet - BUT, big BUT, we have waves of low pressure that will form along the frontal boundary and move NE from the Jersey/Baltimore region through our region and into New England lasting through, AT THE VERY LEAST late late Monday night - but likely into Tuesday afternoon if things shape up well. WE NEED this rain - THAT being said, the ground is dry, and flooding will occur so watch out, especially getting into the Mid Hudson valley and CT/MA border down into Jersey where 2-4" of rain could fall over the next 2-3 days. NYC and Northern Suburbs, including LI and along the Jersey coastline, CT coastline and southern N.E a bit less rain, but still 1-3" with localized higher amounts.

For the immediate afternoon, instability is increasing as we speak as the cold front enhances the lift in front (south) of it, mL Cape is 1200-1800 should increase to 2200-2500 j/kg before decreasing as the Front moves to the south of us...lots of precipitable in the air in excess of 2" across the area will feed the system, and with low winds out of the lower level jet these storms will sit...sit and sit.

Low pressure moves along the front getting into Monday and a shortwave NRG moving across will increase that lift, so watch ot for more heavy rain although not as many t-storms, NE flow develops as High pressure moves into the region Monday night into Tuesday and cooler air/drier - in the mid 60's to low 70's comes into place for much of the week.

SO...this is all good rain to help our dry spell, BUT be careful for any flooding! Models continue to show more rain for the end of the week getting into next week as well, so we will keep an eye on that! Graphics below to show some of the things talked about here smile emoticon have a nice rest of Sunday!

********FRIDAY NIGHT 6:45 PM UPDATE*********

FIRST OFF GUYS, The Rivertowns Enterprise was NICE ENOUGH to write an Article on Dillon and me, regarding our Weather pages and Science Research. If you get the Enterprise, PLEASE read the article! Just skip the forecast for this weekend, when we made it there was NO indication of a storm for tomorrow.

THANK YOU Enterprise, THANK you to all of you who support us! Continue to spread the word, and lets get these forecasts to more and more people!

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**********PLEASE READ THIS ALL, IT IS IMPORTANT - POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS STORM COMING***********

STORM for tomorrow - VERY TRICKY folks, but Dillon and me are VERY CONFIDENT with our forecast!

A clipper moving SE off of Lake Erie will transfer its energy to a developing coastal low which will then intensify greatly SE of Long Island and move NE of Nantucket tomorrow night before moving out Late Sunday night/Monday morning for New England.

When the Clipper transfers its energy, it will be doing so more or less over or just to the south of us...essentially the trough will be extended back and slow the system down a tad as it develops throwing back a bit more moisture over us then if this did not happen.

ONCE AGAIN, EASTERN LONG ISLAND, BOSTON, EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS, AND COASTAL MAINE - YOU GUYS ARE THE BIG WINNERS WITH THIS, HOWEVER, HOWEVER, NYC AND SUBURBS, WESTCHESTER, ETC...WE HAVE A CHANCE AT SOME REAL GOOD SNOW!

Here is the thing with this storm: We have FRIGID AIR IN PLACE. We will have winds 25mph with gusts to 40mph, especially in the coastal regions. We have PLENTY of snow on the ground, most of which is fluffy and not compacted down.

DILLON AND I BOTH KNOW THAT THERE IS NO WINTER STORM WARNING UP, BUT WE FEEL THERE SHOULD BE ONE FOR THE FOLLOWING REASONS:

1. Blizzard Conditions ARE POSSIBLE during the night tomorrow.
2. SNOW RATIOS WILL BE DOUBLED OR MORE, MEANING THE 1-3" ON THE WEATHER CHANNEL CAN EASILY BE 3-6" AND WILL MOST LIKELY BE 3-6"+
3. FRIGID TEMPERATURES
4. Snow WILL be heavy at times during the night

(Am I glad I will be in Jamaica?)

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ANOTHER Potent storm on the Horizon for Tuesday/Wednesday
More details later.

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TONIGHT - Not as cold as last night but still frigid! Highs in the high single digits to low teens, Windchills could still get negative. Clouds will start to roll in as well.

SATURDAY - Snow showers in the morning will evolve into a steadier light snow through the evening, becoming HEAVY at times during the night. Winds will be HIGH guys, 25mph sustained with gusts to 40mph or more. Blowing snow, and FRIGID temperatures will give to possible Blizzard Conditions. Snow will CONTINUE throughout the night and end EARLY Sunday morning. Temperatures in the mid teens to low 20's during the day, and FRIGID during the night as another arctic shot comes through, lows in the single digits and windchill values in the negatives. SNOW RATIOS THROUGH THE ROOF!

SUNDAY - Snow ending early, winds will still be up there, windchill values possibly in the negatives especially in the morning. Clearing out throughout the day, maybe some sun by afternoon.

MONDAY - FRIGIDIDDDD Morning in the single digits to negatives, warming up to balmy low teens maybe.

TUESDAY - Another possible storm? More later on this

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ARTICLE POSTED BELOW. 

**********10:45 AM UPDATE ON WINTER STORM LINUS [#LINUS]*********

VERY VERY HAPPY WITH THE FORECAST THAT DILLON AND ME PUT OUT LAST NIGHT, VERY HAPPY. 7.58" SO FAR, NO RAIN YET JUST SLEET AND ICE AND SNOW. 

The storm ended up coming in a tad weaker and was not able to push that Arctic HP as much away, therefore cold air lasted longer.

SO WHATS NEXT?

We have a Secondary low trying to/succesfully ish forming off the Delmarva Peninsula (Well really between Jersey Coast and Delmarva) and THIS will drain some more cold air south and fuel a redevelopment of precipitation as the two fronts collide LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

SO...SLEET, ICE, SNOW will CONTINUE for the next few hours AND THEN a POTENTIAL HEAVY BAND OF SNOW WILL DEVELOP AFTER LUNCH AS THE BACKSIDE OF ALL THIS MOISTURE WRAPS AROUND and the Secondary low moves NE. 

REST OF TODAY - Snow/Sleet/Ice continuing and then turning back to an all snow solution after lunch for a TIME. SNOW COULD BE HEAVY. Additional accumulations of 1-4" ARE POSSIBLE as that heavy band comes through, WE WILL UPDATE ACCORDINGLY.
Temperatures in the High 20's in NYC to Low 20's in Westchester and PROGRESSIVELY colder as you get N/NW/NE of NYC. IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS - MORE OF A RAIN/SLEET MIXTURE.

FLASH FREEZE IN EFFECT FOR THIS EVENING, TEMPERATURES DROPPING 20-30° FOR SOME TO LOW TO MID TEENS OR UPPER SINGLE DIGITS. ALL STANDING WATER, MELTED PRECIP, UNTREATED ROADS, ETC WILL FREEZE

All precipitation will taper off this evening into nighttime and gradually clear by midnight.

PLACES SOUTH OF YONKERS, COASTAL CT, LONG ISLAND...YOU WILL HAVE A POTENTIAL COMPLETE MESS OF ICE ON YOUR HANDS AS TEMPERATURES RAPIDLY DROP AND MOISTURE MOVES IN, PRECIP KEEPS FALLING. BE CAREFUL

Additional Snow accumulation map below.

ANY QUESTIONS? IF SO POST IT BELOW IN THE COMMENTS OR MESSAGE ME OR DILLON.

Wednesday Night FORECAST + DISCUSSION + Next week Storm? West Coast Deluge

Lemme try and be brief tonight, but FIRST...SHAMWOWZA...Syracuse and Ithaca Area, up in the hills around there being SLAMMED! Some places up there have recorded a FOOT so far and blizzard conditions continue, especially as you get CLOSER to the lakes and start getting into the Lake effect snow (Not AS pronounced because the winds not IDEAL) ANYWAY, within the next couple of days I will post storm totals for snowfall/rain/ice from this WINTER STORM, which by the way was named DAMON. 

NOW, Forecast discussion:

TONIGHT - Still seeing the chance for more snow in the area, ESPECIALLY as you get NW of NYC (WAY NW)...and somewhat North. Do not see any significant accumulations, maybe 1" at BEST. Lows in the low 30's, winds still up there.

THURSDAY - Cloudy, chance of snow showers especially in the morning as the system FINALLY begins its way out. Highs in the mid 30's, colder as you get inland and NW...Along the coast look for slightly warmer temps mid to high 30's, up through the Mass/Boston Areas. Interior NY into the mountains will see highs mid 20's to LOW 30's.

FRIDAY - Storm moves out, HIGH pressure begins to take over the area, MOSTLY sunny skies highs in the mid 30's all the way up the coast, maybe in low 40's around the Cape...maybe 40* in Boston along the water. Interior NY still stuck in the 20's. 

Getting interested in our NEXT possible storm (Nor'easter maybe???) for next week, towards the end of the week probably....Energy exiting to the SW of California will catch the Southern Jet and move Eastward where it either goes out to see or follows up the coast - WE SHALL SEE!

IN THE MEAN TIME, LETS LET AND PRAY THAT ENERGY REALLY STAYS AROUND THE WEST FOR A WHILE AND EASE THE DROUGHT! Could be one of the strongest storms in a DECADE for them! San Francisco, LA, Sacramento and pretty much ALL of Cali in for a BIG deluge!!!!! In addition Cali Ski Slopes could be seeing a FOOT PLUS of the white stuff!

HAVE A NICE NIGHT FOLKS!

NAM Total Rainfall by Sunday

Heavy rain moving North! - Morning Update

*********HEAVY RAIN, SOME ICEY RAIN MOVING NORTH, SNOW ON THE HORIZON*******

As the storm spins north it will tighten and intensify, and then stall over us the afternoon/evening. Expect heavy rain to continue, and some icey rain as well. Do not be surprised if some wet flakes fall as well! 

Getting more confident on a spread of snow wednesday night into thursday morning as the system loops around and the center of pressure reforms. MORE ON THIS LATER!

Folks to the North, in Putnam, up the taconic and into the catskills, DO NOT BE SURPRISED IF IT IS SNOWING, and POSSIBLY accumulating - this is a very elevation dependent storm!

Have a great day folks!