Wednesday Evening Winter Storm Update *Biggie! Big Changes!*

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Updated: 0145z/20:45/08:45PM

****BIG Changes in some of the models have no moved the storm track nearly 50 miles NORTH, putting us once again in the zone for heavier snow. To give an example, the GFS went from .44" QPF to .95" QPF with .82" QPF as snow.

Dillon and me have decided however to stay on the bit of a lower end as it is only one model, and saying 4-8" with the VERY TRUE possibility of going up!!...VERY BIG possibility of this folks!

FORECAST

TONIGHT - Rain showers will transition to heavy sleet/snow around 2-3am as the storm approaches. Temperatures will continue to drop into the upper 20's tonight, 2-4" Of snow and sleet expected BEFORE dawn.

THURSDAY - Snow, heavy at times and some sleet mixing in continuing throughout the day an addition 2-4" expected, with a VERY real possibility of going up to 3-5" or more. Highs in the high 20's maybe reaching 30° - GUYS, SNOW ratios will be High, 12-15:1. Snow will taper off and end around 3-4pm and all out by late evening. TOTAL storm accumulations can be seen on the map below.

THURSDAY NIGHT - Rapid Freeze up into Friday as things start to clear up!

FRIDAY - Clear, Sunny - FREEZING Highs in the low 20's.

FORECAST DISCUSSION

So last night the models were all going south - and now back north? YEP! What is happening is the COLD AIR, the Arctic HP is coming in slower then originally thought, not allowing the storm to push south. An ana-frontal type system is now set up and making its way through the Ohio valley, precipitation on the NORTHERN side of the front and Low. This will continue to move East NE towards us and spread rain to sleet to heavy snow by dawn, most likely between 2-3am. A very strong jet streak will also move along, hopefully adding to the NRG and enhancing our snow by providing better dynamics. The Arctic HP will be following close behind.

No matter what, this will really be a Nowcast situation as it is changing a lot on the models. Looking at observations will be key. But I do believe, and so does Dillon, that this WILL be a significant system.

**LOOKING at the LATEST data, MOST of the snow would fall from after RUSH HOUR through early afternoon.****

**********FRIDAY NIGHT DISCUSSION - WINTER STORM AHEAD FOR SUPERBOWL FOLKS!**********

*******FAIRLY CONFIDENT IN A DECENT WINTER STORM, ALL SNOW FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT******
HOW MUCH SNOW? WELL HERE IS THE TRICKY PART! IT IS GOING TO BE BRUTALLY COLD FOLKS, AND THIS STORM IS GONNA BE EVEN COLDER. DO NOT BE SURPRISED IF 15-20:1 RATIOS OF SNOW ARE PRESENT. FOR NOW, I WILL STICK WITH 10:1 RATIOS - BUT AN AVERAGE OF THE MODELS WOULD BE 
8-12", A MAX WOULD BE 12-15" AND A MINIMUM 4".

HINTING - WITH HIGHER RATIOS WE COULD BE LOOKING AT
PROBABLE 12-15", MAX 18-24"(BUT I THINK THATS A FAR STRETCH).

A storm will move across the Midwest tonight into tomorrow and form a slightly stronger low as it comes out of the Ohio Valley. FOLKS, TRACK AS ALWAYS IS VERY IMPORTANT! A MOVE SOUTH 50 MILES WOULD CUT OUR SNOW IN HALF, A MOVE NORTH 50 MILES COULD MIX SOME YOU-KNOW WHAT IN!!!! 

WE ALL KNOW HOW THE MODELS ARE...SINCE THE LAST STORM.

Pictures are worth a thousand words so PLEASE LOOK AT THEM FOR MORE INFORMATION ON THE STORM!

TIMING, AS OF NOW, WOULD BE MID SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...SO RIGHT AS SUPERBOWL PARTIES ENDING!

OTHER NEWS: BRUTAL, I MEAN BRUTAL COLD COMING TONIGHT WITH BRUTAL WINDCHILLS FAR INTO THE NEGATIVES. PLEASE BE CAREFUL FOLKS!

****************FORECAST*******************

TONIGHT - COLD COLD FRIGID. Lows in the NEGATIVES, -15 to -20° BELOW with the WINDCHILLS, Otherwise Around 1° PROGRESSIVELY COLDER AS YOU GET NORTH AND WEST. WINDS 20-30MPH GUSTS TO 35MPH

TOMORROW - COLD! Highs in the LOW 20's, MORNING HIGHS IN THE NEGATIVES! ENJOY THE SUNNINESS - WONT LAST FOR LONG!

SUNDAY - Increasing Clouds as the day goes on Highs in the LOW 30's around 30-32° Getting COLDER as the day goes on probably, SNOW arriving LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AROUND MIDNIGHT OR SO...MAYBE EARLIER FINAL DETAILS TOMORROW.

MONDAY - Snow Continuing throughout the day is probable. Highs in the low 20's probable.

FIRST CALL MAPS BELOW FOR SUNDAY STORM

TEMPERATURE MAPS AS WELL - LOOK AT THAT COLD!!!!!!

WINDY TOO FOLKS!

**********THURSDAY EVENING UPDATIO**********

A nice and healthy clipper will start to move in tonight spreading Light snow in the area bringing an inch to two inches for us, while areas to the North and NE will get slightly more, 3-4" on top of some areas who got 30"+ from the Blizzard. Redevelopment/Intensification of the low as it hits the Water in the Gulf of Maine will throw some precip back into New England giving Areas just north of Boston (Gloucester/Amsebury area) a good extra 2-3" on top of the 3" from the initial snow of the clipper tomorrow and into tomorrow night. MAINE People - watch out another 6-12" or more coming your way as the low redevelops and forms a closed loop, the negative trough will bring a good amount of Atlantic Moisture up into the area and fuel the snow.

****UPDATED SNOW MAP BELOW FOR THE CLIPPER***

Sunday to Monday night STORM STILL WAFFLING ON THE MODELS....So no definitive ideas yet. The models HAVE been trending with a more southerly track putting Places north of NYC on the edge of snowfall, 3-6"....STILL TO EARLY TO MAKE DEFINITIVE FORECAST THOUGH FOLKS, SO DO NOT WORRY YET.

Another System on the Horizon for next Thursday. Still unclear what will happen with it, so no worries.

************FORECAST**************

TONIGHT - COLDD, in the low to mid teens, maybe low 20's along the coast. Clipper arrives in a few hours, light snow/snow showers, another burst around daybreak possible so watch for rush hour tomorrow. SEE SNOW MAP.

TOMORROW - Some lingering light snow/snow showers in the morning tapering off and skies become partly cloudy to sunny Highs in the mid 20's - COLD SHOT TOMORROW NIGHT, GUYS BRUTAL BRUTAL COLD!!!

SATURDAY - Highs in the low to mid 20's, Sunny, brisk wind in the morning probably will die as the day goes on. 

THANKS AGAIN TO WEATHERBELL AND RYAN FOR LETTING US UTILIZE THESE AMAZING MODELS!