Sunday Afternoon Update - Here come the DELAYED rains!

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Updated: 1945z/15:45/3:45PM

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REST OF TODAY - Rain showers and localized heavy downpours/t-storms as well as possible HAIL and high wind gusts will move across the area in response to the cold front trudging its way through well to the west of us. Rains will become more organized as evening progresses. Temps maxing out around 80° WATCH FOR FLOODING. FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TONIGHT - Cold front passes in the late evening probably between 7-9pm, watch those temps plummet into high 50's low 60's across much of the area north of NYC northern suburbs.

MONDAY - Rain for much of the day heavy at times, watch for localized flooding as 1-3" across the area of rain can be expected with this system from late tonight through Tuesday night.. Highs Monday in the HIGH 50's maybe reaching 60-62°

TUESDAY - Watch for Thunderstorms and rain in the morning into the afternoon possible as the system exits to the east, then maybe some partial clearing and the sun should peak out in the late afternoon - need some things to come into play for this to happen so lets wait and seer], highs in the low to mid 60's.

WEDNESDAY - High pressure builds into the area behind the storm system and drier cooler air comes in, Highs in the mid to high 60's maybe up to 70°, clouds in and out and watch for some wind.

--------------------------FORECAST DISCUSSION------------------------

OKI Doki very potent system we got moving into place, lets get into the rains - for the next 2-3 days!!!

Cold front will continue to move southward, right now it is just about 35-50 miles north of us, anyway it will continue southward through the afternoon and will move to the south of us by late tonight - now, if it were just this cold front then the rains would be short and sweet - BUT, big BUT, we have waves of low pressure that will form along the frontal boundary and move NE from the Jersey/Baltimore region through our region and into New England lasting through, AT THE VERY LEAST late late Monday night - but likely into Tuesday afternoon if things shape up well. WE NEED this rain - THAT being said, the ground is dry, and flooding will occur so watch out, especially getting into the Mid Hudson valley and CT/MA border down into Jersey where 2-4" of rain could fall over the next 2-3 days. NYC and Northern Suburbs, including LI and along the Jersey coastline, CT coastline and southern N.E a bit less rain, but still 1-3" with localized higher amounts.

For the immediate afternoon, instability is increasing as we speak as the cold front enhances the lift in front (south) of it, mL Cape is 1200-1800 should increase to 2200-2500 j/kg before decreasing as the Front moves to the south of us...lots of precipitable in the air in excess of 2" across the area will feed the system, and with low winds out of the lower level jet these storms will sit...sit and sit.

Low pressure moves along the front getting into Monday and a shortwave NRG moving across will increase that lift, so watch ot for more heavy rain although not as many t-storms, NE flow develops as High pressure moves into the region Monday night into Tuesday and cooler air/drier - in the mid 60's to low 70's comes into place for much of the week.

SO...this is all good rain to help our dry spell, BUT be careful for any flooding! Models continue to show more rain for the end of the week getting into next week as well, so we will keep an eye on that! Graphics below to show some of the things talked about here smile emoticon have a nice rest of Sunday!

Friday Evening Weather Update - Weekend Outlook Rain in Sight!
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Updated: 0030z/8:30PM

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REST OF TODAY - Temperatures will begin to cool down into the high 60's for the night, mostly clear....BUT

TONIGHT - Clouds rolling in tonight as High pressure moves offshore and moist humid and warmer air moves in...fog possible as the the dry cooler air meets the warmer humid air...lows in the high 60's to maybe even low 70's.

SATURDAY - Partly Sunny/Cloudy with a good chance of t-storms rolling in the afternoon as a SSW flow sets up and instability ramps up a bit...watch out for those smile emoticon Temps in the low 80's, humid.

SUNDAY - Cold front approaches and as NRG comes along with it, ridging to the south of us should slow it down, ridging behind it will bring cooler air and give us a nice wet day LIKELY, and much needed rain. Cooler highs in the low to mid 70's.

MONDAY - Chance of showers in the morning depending on the system setup for Sunday, otherwise cloudy to partly sunny highs COLD just about in the 58-62° range, drier as the day goes on.

-------------------------FORECAST DISCUSSION-------------------------

Can we FINALLY get some good rains? Looks like our best bet is gonna be Sunday for this system, if it comes along smile emoticon

Cold front sweeps in from the NW coming down across the great lakes with High pressure behind it bringing down colder Canadian air Saturday night into Sunday, mostly late morning through the afternoon for all east of the Hudson River, although some places well to the north might get it before NYC area does, NOW, here is the question, NRG comes in with this...do we develop a nice slow moving soaker as Ridging on both sides slows us down? Or do we weaken the Atlantic Ridging more and this Cold front just sweeps through in and out...all this is gonna decide how much rain we do get. Right now looking at the data I am confident in saying we will see the front stall and the shortwave NRG slides along it....but for how long.,...? Greatest chance for heavy rain Sunday evening through early Monday morning. The Euro likes the more rain idea as it keeps it a more neutral tilted trough and allows more LP/shortwaves to "dance" across it maybe even into late Monday.

After our system, High pressure behind it builds into the area, drier and much cooler conditions appear for much of next week.

El Nino Update! Ok, lets talk SST's: SST's across the Eastern Pacific, namely in the Nino 12 area are exploding (haha get it? explodding?...OK not literally :P) and the thermocline is getting deeper...that being said I am not seeing a "SUPER NINO" off the charts scenario...even though the models have many ensembles going +3.5°C Anomaly, which is absurdly high, the mean, and averages are sticking around +2 to 2.2°C anomaly. For comparison, the Super El Nino of 97/98 got to between +4-5°C. The warmest waters are in the east right now moving west, slowly, but definitely moving, especially deepening the expansion to 50-75m below sea level, this will continue...the question is how much. I am liking the JAMSTEC model which is usually pretty good at these ENSO events, as the modellers at JAMSTEC focus more on the oceans then others do...so, they are giving us an El Nino peaking Late August to September...possibly later, to +1.5 to +1.8°C before backing off to a Modoki signature like we saw last winter (hence why my idea for the winter is as it is)...Anyway....lets see how this turns out and more updates on it coming soon!

Cya guys!

Wednesday Evening Weather Update - Thunderstorms are here!

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Updated:2247z/6:47PM

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REST OF TODAY - Currently Have some decent T-Storms making there way across the river, right now looking at a particular cell, you are probably already hearing the thunder it is about 20 miles away moving 49MPH towards us, it has decent strength should reach us in the next 10 minutes at least. Watch for some downpours and lightning/thunder, light rain on and off for the rest of the evening into the night. Temps currently at 74° winds out of the West at 3MPH, barometer is dropping. WATCH OUT, ABOUT 3 MORE CELLS MAKING THERE WAY OVER

TONIGHT - Storms Clearing out well before midnight, temps dropping into mid 60's, winds still a bit gusty. Had up to 19mph gusts out of the SE today.

THURSDAY - Possibility of a t-storm and some rain showers, otherwise like today highs in the low 80's, but humid with the South Easterly flow.

FRIDAY - Less humid as the flow becomes less southerly, highs near 80°, sunny with wispy clouds in and out.

****SEE THE RADAR FOR THE LATEST ON THE STORMS LOCATIONS****

Blog Update - Come take a look!

Hey guys! No forecast tonight, just a heads up though of some changes to the blog site:

- Added Regional Weather Radar, look on the right sidebar, it is the first thing there. **NOTE - Trying to find a more interactive module

- Added the WeatherBug Widget, this displays some of the data that comes from the WeatherBug Weather Recording Station at the Irvington Public School. Please note, the forecast that is on that widget is WeatherBug's forecast and NOT ours [WeatherInTheHud with Remy & Dillon]

- Added WeatherBug Station Data Link, this is the link to the Student page for the WeatherBug Weather Station. **If it asks for Login information, enter the Zipcode: 10533 and choose Irvington Middle School, then 8th grade.** Once on the site, you can navigate through the sidebar. There are many activities, tools, and fun information as well as educational material. TO GET to the raw data from our station at the High School click the <TOOLS> tab on the sidebar, then the first link <Weather Observations> this will open a new page with the station data, there are some tabs you can use to see different items, and archived data 180 days past, as well as graphing capabilities

Dillon and I hope everybody enjoys these new features! We will keep trying to make the blog better and add new features, so please, if you have any suggestions on how we can make it better please let us know by either commenting on this post, or emailing me at remymerm@aol.com or Dillon at dillonpalmieri@yahoo.com

Thanks!

Sunday Afternoon Weather Update - HAPPY Memorial Day!

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Updated: 2030z/16:30/04:30PM

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REST OF TODAY - Temps in the mid 80's will begin to cool down, mostly sunny with some clouds, southerly flow will continue to bring humid(er) air into the region behind the warm front to our north.

TONIGHT - Lows in the low 60's to high 50's well to the north of NYC. Some clouds, mostly clear though.

TUESDAY - A bit warmer, highs in the mid to high 80's, small chance of a thunderstorm in the afternoon, more so if to the north in Putnam Valley/Central Hudson Valley..otherwise, partly cloudy, mostly sunny, humid.

WEDNESDAY - Chance of t-storms and rain in the late afternoon/evening, otherwise highs around 80-83°, partly cloudy/partly sunny.

THURSDAY - Another chance of t-storms in the afternoon and light rain throughout the day as well, otherwise a tad cooler highs around 80°. Humid.

-----------------------FORECAST DISCUSSION---------------------------

First, a very very happy Memorial Day to all, and a HUGE, MONUMENTAL thanks to all the service members who have dedicated themselves and their families to protecting our country.

Next, HUGE amounts of rain pummeling the southern Plains and Texas, places in Oklahoma and Texas have received over 2 feet of rain in the last couple of weeks! Massive flooding is going on as well from the rain, lets wish them all a speedy recovery!

Some drought relief coming for us, somewhat. See, we will get rain, but the ground is so dry, and warm that evo-transpiration evaporation will exceed precipitation, and so while we may not get deeper into drought, we will not get better...that being said, we are not in THAT bad of a situation.

The Bermuda high is strengthening, and so will promote the SW flow to continue over the next couple of days bringing in warm and humid air into the region through the end of the week, that being said coastal areas will stay in the mid to upper 70's as those sea breezes kick up. You will notice it a bit windier this week...anyway. Ridging will continue to retrograde and expand westward over the week, the Bermuda High will stay in place and warm air will continue to pump pump its way in. Cold front drops in through the weekend, probably late Saturday night into Sunday and this could bring some nice rain....timing still iffy so lets wait on this, but definitely more organized then the thunderstorms this week.

Summer forecast will not be out until Mid June, Dillon and I have finals, and research work to do, and we feel it is best to wait until Summer OFFICIALLY starts..also a lot of things changing right now that could impact the summer, so lets wait and see.

Wednesday Evening Weather Update - Lets keep the cool

wink emoticon
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Updated: 0045z/20:47/08:47PM

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TONIGHT - Chance of a sprinkle or two, otherwise partly cloudy/clear lows COOL in the mid 40's to high 30's possible in NW NY and interior N.E.

THURSDAY - Gonna be a close call as a system develops in the Mid Atlantic and moves North, it might be raining in NYC but not here...chance of some showers/light rain especially in the afternoon into evening...overall though maybe 30-40% chance though. Highs a bit cooler then today as HP just to the north of us builds slightly around 60-62°.

FRIDAY - NO SCHOOL! (At least for Irvington kids wink emoticon ) Highs around 70°, chilly morning though., Clouds in and out as Low Pressure builds to the NE and E, otherwise sunny.

SATURDAY - Highs in the high 60's, breezy, less clouds then Friday but in and out.

--------------------------FORECAST DISCUSSION------------------------

OK Whats going on! ALOT believe it or not....affecting us or not physically it affects the weather for us anyway. Shortwave will continue to cross the Ohio Valley tonight into tomorrow and allow Low pressure to form in the Mid Atlantic coasts...nice May soaker for all those south of NYC essentially in the Mid Atlantic especially Baltimore. Clouds will role in north of NYC but not expecting much rain, maybe a few sprinkles in NYC and on LI.....Bigger chance of rain in the evening, still only 30-40% as shortwave digs and low deepens off the coast.

Now, Update on spring! The Sun is making its way slowly north as we gear up for our Summer Solstice...currently the sun is at just under 14°N Latitude, about 62° Altitude in our sky (it will get to about 72°), a little over halfway to its summer spot at 23.5°N for June 21st and our longest day, nearly 14 hours of sunlight. After that it is all downhill from there as the sun makes it back to the equator for the fall equinox and then 23.5°S for the winter solstice and our shortest day of the year, only 9 ish hours of sunlight.

As I said before, temps will continue going back and forth but CFSV2 liking june staying just about at or just above average temps, then a cool down in July... However this is a volatile situation as the El Nino on the models looking like either super duper strong or not so strong with every run...lets see what they finally agree on and what the conditions show. We have seen a steady expansion of the warm pools, but lets wait and see....

CFSV2 showing strong El Nino all the way through next year, just saying, but not buying that for now. Any rumors about Pacific crash...ehhh not so much from what I see. Warm pools will diminish a bit but I don't think it would qualify as a "crash" in anyway. Again El Nino changing and all this will have an impact so...lets wait and see.

Wednesday Evening Weather Update - Like the cool weather??

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Updated: 2335z/19:35/07:35PM

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TONIGHT - Cold WATCH for frost, lows in the low to mid 40's, winds dying down though will make it not as bad. Clear.

THURSDAY - Highs in the high 60's, a tad warmer then today. Nice day, clear, not as much wind at all.

FRIDAY - A tad warmer, highs around 70°, watch out for some clouds...not too bad though. Nice day. Clouds getting thicker at night as a very weak frontal system moves through.

SATURDAY - Highs in the mid 70's, cloudy with showers in the morning and maybe a t-storm or two during the morning into the afternoon...not much though.

--------------------------FORECAST DISCUSSION------------------------

Now was that temperature contrast or not! We reached 83.6° Yesterday, and only 64.3° today - that is over a 19° difference in less then 24 hours!

Now, lets enjoy it...cooler weather, closer to average will be sticking around for the next couple days and into the weekend. High pressure will continue to build to the west of us tonight and move over us tomorrow into Friday. Watch for those clouds forming Friday afternoon as a weak area of low pressure/frontal system moves closer into the night. Showers and maybe a t-storm into Saturday afternoon cannot be ruled out. Models are sticking with the precipitation staying to the north of us as the warm front moves through..we shall see. GFS does want to build things up a bit, showing CAPE 1500-2200 during the day Saturday and a good amount of instability for the afternoon into evening in terms of t-storms, but lets see what the ridging does to try to stop that. Likely, if a cell does form FRIDAY NIGHT, it will be mostly quick bursts of heavy rainfall as storm motion very slow and now that much convection going on. Saturday the storms look a bit quicker and uplift/dynamics a bit better to produce less rain but maybe more thunder if something develops.

Highs pressure will again build Sunday into Monday as High Pressure builds from the Canadian Maritimes, a bit more humid air but cooler as well. Next system likely Tuesday-Wednesday and this could be a nice bout of rain as a cold front moves through and an organized low tries to develop to the south of us and come north....lets wait and see what happens with this.

We need rain, right now we have had no measurable rain for this month, and in April ended with 71% of normal Precipitation. The Palmer Drought Index for our region is at -3 anomaly, and precipitation is 4" below normal for the period March through May 8th.

Have a great night guys!

Monday Evening Weather Update - Hot then cool

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Updated: 0045z/20:45/08:45PM

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TONIGHT - Small chance of a shower or two, but doubtful, lows in the mid 60's - WARM night - don't get use to it~!

TUESDAY - Highs in the mid 80's, warm and humid frown emoticon Chance of some showers maybe a t-storm or two as a cold front passes in the evening.

WEDNESDAY - High pressure builds from the west, while Low pressure forms to the NE, this combo could make for some high winds. Much cooler highs around 60°, partly cloudy.

THURSDAY - Highs in the mid 60's, High pressure moves east throughout the day, sunny.

-------------------------FORECAST DISCUSSION------------------------- 

Low pressure from weakening tropical storm Ana will move to the SE of us tonight and into tomorrow night and low pressure approaching the Quebec region. A cold front will move through the area tomorrow evening attached to the Quebec low bringing a chance of showers/t-storms.

High pressure will begin to build behind the front Tuesday night into Thursday, watch out for gusty winds Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday as that HP and LP contrast, remember generally 4 knots per 4mB change in pressure, so on a weather map, look at those isobars center and you can "guess" the wind speeds...right now probably 25-30mph gusts are probable cool air guys! Highs in the mid 60's to 70° will dominate for the rest of the week after Wednesday.

Possible system for the weekend although looking like showers/light rain for now as an organized system is not developing on the models.

Rest of the month, AO and NAO stay positive while the PNA goes + and EPO -. MJO sticking in the circle of death, but close to 7/8 phases, spelling out a slightly cooler solution for us...but for the most part should stay near to slightly above average for the rest of the month, June still looking rather cool/right at average in terms of temps.

Have a great night guys!

Picture of Tropical Storm Ana before landfall.

Thursday Evening Weather Update

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Updated: 0010z/20:10/8:10PM

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TONIGHT - Clear, lows getting to mid 50's by daybreak.

FRIDAY - Highs into the mid 70's maybe reaching 80° especially around NYC, Newark.

SATURDAY - Highs in mid 70's, getting cloudy during the night as moisture from our spinning potential STC reaches our area.

SUNDAY - MOTHERS DAY! Fog in and out throughout the day, probably will not burn out of it much, if we do it will be in afternoon, definitely out by Monday morning. Highs near 80°.

--------------------------FORECAST DISCUSSION------------------------

ALLL EYES are on the tropics! Well not really "tropics" but the wacky system developing down north of the Bahamas, Cutoff low will continue spinning and probably develop into a Sub Tropical Cyclone at the very least, making landfall just south of the Outer Banks...Biggest threats at this point is heavy rainfall, but winds 35-40kts sustained gusts up to 50kts could occur, if it strengthens. We shall see over the next 24-48 hours if it develops...need those t-storms and convection to fully wrap the center of low pressure. See picture below from NNVL.

Upper level Ridge will move in from the west tomorrow and a somewhat easterly flow will allow for some sea breezes to develop and fog to roll in Friday night for a bit, but not much as dew points will be low and SST cold...mainly on the coast.

Getting into the longer period, Ridging will stick around for much of the next week, ALTHOUGH, looking like moisture and a tad bit of NRG from the spinning low to the south could reach us giving us fog and maybe some rain showers Saturday night into Sunday. nothing big, but the fog could stick around as a SE/S flow develops from the system to the south of us as it looks like now. Next system could come through Monday into Tuesday, we will wait and see how that works out...might miss us by a tad, but we shall see.

We will remain dry for much of the rest of the month - although hints at a bigger storm for end of the 10 day period are happening.

MJO still looking like it wants to go to the cooler phases 7/8 in the next 10 days or so, certainly after next week getting into the end of May and into the beginning of June. Also seeing at a return of warmth come June, then a cool down towards the end of June to beginning of July, warming back up again then cool....This however will change as the ENSO situation develops. Just some early thoughts.

Have a great night!

Sunday Afternoon Weather Update - Real nice week coming up!

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Updated: 1940z/15:40/3:40PM

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REST OF TODAY - Temps in mid to high 70's will cool to low 50's by nighttime.

TONIGHT - Lows in low 50's, mostly clear.

MONDAY - Really nice weather! A southwest flow, abundant sunshine will give us temps right around 80°!

TUESDAY - A cold front dropping down from the lakes will bring a chance of showers and some light rain in the afternoon into evening. Otherwise partly sunny, highs in mid 70's, we will see if we get any thunderstorms out of this...could get enough instability for them.

WEDNESDAY - Maybe a few lingering showers in the morning as a stationary front develops and then moves to the south, otherwise cloudy turning partly sunny, highs in low to mid 70's.

-------------------------FORECAST DISCUSSION-------------------------

Unseasonably warm temperatures will move into the area for most of this week and probably for the next 10 days or so as the jet moves north, and a Southerly flow develops for the most part. In addition to this, we can observe the MJO being in phase 7 more or less right now which is warm for our region, we do however observe this going into phase 8 possibly in the next 10-15 days which would put us on the cooler side come mid may.

Getting into the week, cold front coming through Tuesday will bring chance of showers into wednesday morning, then ridging builds to the west, it will move east throughout the week and off the mid Atlantic by next weekend. Should stay dry for the week after Wednesday as we get continuous cool air (does not mean it will be cold) descending under the High. Getting into next weekend we will have a warm front approaching and possible soaker, but still to far out to tell any details.

Our first Possible Tropical disturbance of the season could develop in the Bahamas mid week and then move along the SE coast (FL/Carolina's) giving some heavy rain and gusty winds - likely nothing to bad at this point.

As we said in our initial spring forecast released a couple weeks back, we will begin to see above average (ish) temperatures followed by a slight cool-down into Mid may and then another warm-up back to average or above average temps. Gotta credit Dillon on this one as he spotted this warm-up early on.

Have a great rest of the weekend!