Wednesday Evening Update - Summer, oh summer

-
Updated: 0120z/21:20/09:20PM

---------------------------------FORECAST-----------------------------------

TONIGHT - Partly Cloudy/clear warmer lows in the mid 60's.

THURSDAY - Muggy and humid as a ESE flow sets up, sunny with clouds in the morning will give way to more clouds and a good chance for some t-storms in the afternoon, some could be strong, gusty winds and heavy bursts of rain. Hottest day of the week, highs in the mid to high 80's, could see 90° in a few spots.

FRIDAY - Warm but a bit drier, not AS humid but still humid, sunny, highs in the low to mid 80's.

*Tell ya one thing, the AC better be working tomorrow and Friday at school :)*

SATURDAY - T-storms return especially in the afternoon likely, as a low passes to the north and a cold front is dragged along with it, otherwise partly sunny/partly cloudy highs in the low to mid 80's.

-------------------------FORECAST DISCUSSION-------------------------

OKI DOKI! Enjoy today? Was not too hot or cold, nice and breezy smile emoticonperfect weather. Well do not get use to it!

High pressure will move offshore, and Bermuda High will strengthen a bit bringing a ESE/SSW flow and humid, warm air into the region especially getting into NYC-Jersey and South...Highs in the HIGH 80'S into the 90's south west of NYC, mid to high 80's with maybe a few 90's N/NW of NYC...coastal areas a bit cooler.

Tomorrow as a cold front slowly drags along and some disturbances ride along it watch out for scattered showers and t-storms especially in the evening after all the heating from the day, convection and instability will increase through the day. Plenty of water in the air, +1.5" so watch for heavy rain.

Cold front will bring in cooler and drier air for Friday into the weekend, along with High pressure building over us, not as muggy...BUT, LP moving through the N. Great Lakes and into Northern NY will drag a cold front with it, as well as a warm front ahead of it will increase the convection throughout the day and set up instability for a possibility of some strong t-storms and gusty winds into the evening. As that leaves the area comes with it HP and cooler air and then the cycle continues again...t-storms, warm air, cold air, etc. You know the drill!

Now A quick little El Nino Update! It might be easier for those reading this to view it on the blog page as the pictures will be lined up with the actual words...ANYWAY (Oh and sorry bout the pic quality JAMSTEC has to work on their maps)

First picture shows the predicted temperature anomalies from JAMSTEC, who is very reliable, for June-July-August. NOT as cool as last year, but still you can see it is not much ABOVE AVERAGE (unless you count +.5°C a lot). You can see Texas and much of the mid portion of the country below normal, following the El Nino. The important thing here is to watch what happens as the year goes on....carefully.

SECOND picture showing same thing, predicted temp anomalies but for September - October - November. Cold has expanded east more, and at the same time if you look at the El Nino graphs you can see it has reached its peak here and is declining and returning to a more modoki signature...same as last year 

wink emoticon

JAMSTEC SON Temp ANOMALIES

THIRD PIC showing Dec-Jan-Feb anomalies...WOW, almost ALL of the country WELL below average temps!!!! What does the El Nino Modoki index say? It gets stronger at the same time the temps get lower! HINT HINT smile emoticon

So, alot of models and a lot of people are saying there will be a massive El Nino...THIS IS TRUE (ISH) The models have been ALL over the place with the intensity...one thing is for sure, it will not be more then +2.5, most likely it will end up between 1.5-2 as the current trends are going...what is interesting though is that while the intensity forecasts have been changing, it has been more or less consistent of when it ends and what state it goes into after ending - Modoki...so if that gives any indication of what next winter will be like, especially since we had the same setup last winter....speaking of winter, I hear the snowpiles up in Boston are still going strong? Peter is this true? Lucky people ;)

There ya go! Latest update is done smile emoticon Have a nice night folks!

Thursday Evening Discussion and Forecast - Important on next week storm(s)??

FIRST FEW POINTS

- As Of now looks like we have dodged a bullet with the Sunday storm. The main piece of it, the energy that was shown dropping from the North just wont be there and hence will not drop south, and a storm will not really form for anybody. SO, OFF THE TABLES FOR NOW...STILL A CHANCE FOR SOMETHING THOUGH SO KEEP AN EYE OUT!

- Christmas storm VERY tricky right now, but looks like a MASSIVE system...When all 10 Ensemble members of the Euro have a 964 Low forming...thats Bombogenesis right there, you know something BIG will likely happen. Who gets what, where, when exactly is not completely known yet, but lets keep an eye out for this one AS WELL.

- Pattern change coming, I am still confident we will lock into winter after Christmas. Of course the way the models are behaving anything could happen...but lets stick with the idea that after Christmas we go into more of a winter winter mode. Remember, for those snow lovers.., Historically December is not a snow maker of a month, and we on the East Coast USUALLY get the BIGGEST SNOWS January - early March when the cold is really set in - so give it some time, it will come!

- MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE RIGHT NOW....EVERY RUN THEY CHANGE COMPLETELY...SO, DO NOT BE SURPRISED IF YOU SEE ALOT OF CHANGES IN THE FORECASTS WITH THE BIG STORMS AS WE GET CLOSER TO THEM.

**************FORECAST**************

SHORT FORECAST TONIGHT AS SUNDAY AND PAST IS STILL VERY UNCERTAIN.

TONIGHT - Lows near 30*, lower up in the Highlands, to the NW. Along the coast up through Boston a little warmer. Clearing out.

FRIDAY - Highs in the mid 30's. Mostly sunny, a slight breeze will continue.

SATURDAY - Highs in the mid 30's again, mostly sunny, getting cloudy during night probably.....still uncertain. 

HAVE A GOOD NIGHT FOLKS!