FIRST FEW POINTS
- As Of now looks like we have dodged a bullet with the Sunday storm. The main piece of it, the energy that was shown dropping from the North just wont be there and hence will not drop south, and a storm will not really form for anybody. SO, OFF THE TABLES FOR NOW...STILL A CHANCE FOR SOMETHING THOUGH SO KEEP AN EYE OUT!
- Christmas storm VERY tricky right now, but looks like a MASSIVE system...When all 10 Ensemble members of the Euro have a 964 Low forming...thats Bombogenesis right there, you know something BIG will likely happen. Who gets what, where, when exactly is not completely known yet, but lets keep an eye out for this one AS WELL.
- Pattern change coming, I am still confident we will lock into winter after Christmas. Of course the way the models are behaving anything could happen...but lets stick with the idea that after Christmas we go into more of a winter winter mode. Remember, for those snow lovers.., Historically December is not a snow maker of a month, and we on the East Coast USUALLY get the BIGGEST SNOWS January - early March when the cold is really set in - so give it some time, it will come!
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- MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE RIGHT NOW....EVERY RUN THEY CHANGE COMPLETELY...SO, DO NOT BE SURPRISED IF YOU SEE ALOT OF CHANGES IN THE FORECASTS WITH THE BIG STORMS AS WE GET CLOSER TO THEM.
**************FORECAST**************
SHORT FORECAST TONIGHT AS SUNDAY AND PAST IS STILL VERY UNCERTAIN.
TONIGHT - Lows near 30*, lower up in the Highlands, to the NW. Along the coast up through Boston a little warmer. Clearing out.
FRIDAY - Highs in the mid 30's. Mostly sunny, a slight breeze will continue.
SATURDAY - Highs in the mid 30's again, mostly sunny, getting cloudy during night probably.....still uncertain.
HAVE A GOOD NIGHT FOLKS!
FEW POINTS OF DISCUSSION
-The Possibility of a potentially major storm is VERY MUCH in the realm of possibility for Saturday night into Sunday night (20-21st). SO KEEP AN EYE ON THE POSTS COMING FROM HERE, WE WILL HAVE THE LATEST UPDATES.
- AO/NAO/EPO/WPO/PNA ALL TANK AROUND 24TH-26TH SO IT SEEMS, WHAT DOES THIS MEAN? WELL ESSENTIALLY THAT WINTER WILL REALLY BE LOCKING IN - COLD, STORMINESS...MUCH LIKE THE PATTERN BACK IN NOVEMBER, BUT MORE SUSTAINED AND STORMY.
- ANOTHER POSSIBLE STORM, YES, Right on the heels of the possible Saturday-Sunday Storm we get ANOTHER for Christmas...Details still vague but the possibility, again DEFINITELY there!!!
- THE BLOCKING we have been waiting for (or at least I have) will begin to set up between and after the Sunday and Christmas storms, coinciding with the Oscillations/Teleconnections tanking!
***********************FORECASTIC FORECAST**********************
TONIGHT - Highs in the HIGH 20's, clear
TUESDAY - Partly Cloudy skies over to all cloudy w/ showers developing in the evening and changing over to all rain in the night, MAYBE a bit of freezing sleet/ice for a bit but I am doubtful. Highs in the mid 40's, lows in the HIGH 30's. Areas in Northern NY, Southern NE...maybe even Boston could see some snow showers/light snow on the backside.
WEDNESDAY - BIG WARMUP! HIGHS NEAR 50*, Partly Cloudy
THURSDAY - Highs back down to high 30's, sunny.
FRIDAY - Highs low to mid 30's, sunny.
WILL GET TO WEEKEND LATER!
PICTURES
- EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE CONTROL RUN OF TOTAL SNOWFALL, IN NO MEANS A FORECAST JUST A GUIDE TO THOSE WHO COULD SEE SNOW. ENSEMBLE MEAN RUN ALSO INCLUDED
- EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MSLP MAP FOR THE POSSIBLE SUNDAY STORM.
*******************ONCE AGAIN FOLKS - VERY VERY BUSY TIME FOR WEATHER THESE NEXT FEW WEEKS, AND A VERY ACTIVE PATTERN.**************************
I know most of you do not generally like to read all the nuts and bolts technical information that I have to go through and look at to make these posts, but I REALLY wanted to share with you a few technical things that I think are interesting, and you might want to know, that have to do with the current weather and what I believe will begin to set in for the winter. So if you wanna learn something new, read! If not, skip ahead to the bottom where the Forecast is.
Among MANY things that control our weather, and climate are some things called NAO/AO/PDO/AMO/EPO/WPO/PNA...These are different Teleconnections and Oscillations that essentially measure Air pressure, and Sea Surface Temperatures at different regions around the world. In the winter, what generally happens, is the NAO (North Atlantic Oscillations) and AO (Arctic Oscillations) favor negative trends. Negative trends favor COLDER conditions across much of North America, and therefore, when the NAO/AO are negative, you can almost surely bet we will be seeing cold air that correlates with when they go negative. to put briefly what happens when the NAO goes negative, is we get whats called Blocking in the atmosphere to the NE of us over New Foundland, and a Huge Ridge (Area of positive pressure) over Greenland (Sometimes Called Greenland Blocking). We also usually see a ridge over the Gulf of Alaska. With this setup, we see low pressure more prevalent over the USA...hence the storminess. What this allows is for the Jet stream to dip down into the USA, and that allows that COLD arctic air to dive south. When the AO goes negative, we also end up with a very similar situation, though usually more LOW pressure over Greenland.
NOW, for this winter, what is interesting is how the PDO fits into all of this. The PDO are Pacific Decadel Oscillations, and this is basically measures of SST's in the Pacific Oceans. Without getting to much into details, the PDO usually exists in 30 year cycles of Warm and cold. Currently, and since about 1978 we have been in a warm cycle. What this means is warmer waters around Alaska and west coast, colder Water in the middle of the Pacific north of 20* N Latitude. It also favors more El Ninos (We are in a weak El Nino Right Now). Usually though in a Warm cycle, After the first 10-15 years, it begins to turn colder. A Warm PDO ALSO favors More Atlantic Hurricanes (LOOK AT SANDY) that make landfall, and MORE GREENLAND BLOCKING, WHICH LETS IN THAT COLD AIR AND MORE SNOWSTORMS.
SO, For this winter, to sum it all up, the pattern really starts to LOCK in around Christmas this year so it seems, with the AO/NAO..etc. starting to go Negative hinting and more SUSTAINED COLD. Warmer then Average SST's in the Atlantic will diminish, and blocking will begin to setup over Greenland (sustained) and Gulf of Alaska allowing that cold air in. The Jet stream will feature a more N-S Split of the two then usual, which will continue to allow for more of these Nor'Easters to form because it carries and allows them to form in the Gulf and ride the coast up. AS I SAID WEEKS AGO, I still believe, that ONCE this winter locks in, and that pattern is set - we will be IN winter for a while and locked in.
SO, JUST SOME TECHNICAL INFO ON OUR CLIMATE. THIS ALSO HAPPENS TO BE WHAT DILLON AND I ARE STUDYING IN SCIENCE RESEARCH, AND WE HAVE THE GREAT PRIVELAGE TO WORK WITH Joe D'aleo who was a founder of the Weather Channel, and professor, and is a leading meteorologist in the world and expert on this type of stuff. So, IF ANYBODY HAS QUESTIONS - ASK AWAY!
PS - I HAVE ATTACHED AN IMAGE EXPLAINING WHAT I AM TALKING ABOUT - NOT MY IMAGE, IT IS FROM JOE D'ALEO'S AWESOME PAPER!
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NOW ONTO THE WEATHER!
VERY ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER COMING UP - Right off the bat, we have POTENTIALLY THREE Systems to come THROUGH THE AREA between now and Christmas.
-1ST Low Pressure Forms out in midwest from the mess left over from the storms that hit the West Coast. RIGHT NOW, it goes over the Great lakes, sorta gets diminished and reforms once well away from us, but there is ALOT of other things involved with this, and I have a feeling we may get a bit more of it then we think right now. As of now though, just some showers from it Tuesday afternoon/Night.
-2ND Possible Nor'Easter SUNDAY-MONDAY of next week, this could be a snow maker, but it is still to early to tell...IT MUST BE WATCHED THOUGH, as the Pattern WILL BE SETTING IN FOR COLDER AIR TO BE DOMINANT AND CONSISTENT.
-3RD CHRISTMAS! YES, THERE IS A POSSIBLE SYSTEM THAT COULD AFFECT US ON CHRISTMAS...So, it is still over 10 days out so HARD to tell, but the POSSIBILITY IS THERE. Must ALSO be watched!!!!!!!
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TONIGHT - Lows near 32*, clear...not much going on
SUNDAY - Highs high 30's, to low 40's...colder inland and North as you get into Boston Area, Sunny.
MONDAY - Sunny, Highs near 40*
TUESDAY - Sunny then turning Cloudy, Highs in low 40's. Rain Showers in afternoon - evening, will clear out during the night.
WEDNESDAY - BRIEF WARMUP, Highs mid to HIGH 40's, Mostly Cloudy though, maybe some sun peeking through as system exits to the East.
THURSDAY - COLDER, Highs barely reaching high 30's, stuck in Low to MID 30's. Sunny.
FRIDAY - Highs just about at freezing, 30-33*, Sunny.
Have a nice night folks!
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