Monday Evening Weather Update

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Updated: 0105z/21:05/09:05PM

------------------------------------FORECAST--------------------------------

TONIGHT - Lows in the upper 30's to low 40°, cloudy with a few spotty showers after midnight as a vigorous cold front begins to move through.

TUESDAY - Warmer ahead of the cold front highs near 50° maybe a spotty shower or two, THEN as the cold front comes through - could we be looking at some snow showers or a snow squall? MAYBE...its a very vigurous change in the atmosphere. 

WEDNESDAY - Windy behind the cold front, pressure gradient very big as a wave develops offshore and High pressure settles over us. Cold too highs in mid 30's. Typical of mid to late January.

THURSDAY - Highs near 40° Mostly sunny.

--------------------------FORECAST DISCUSSION------------------------

FUN FACT: Some Places in Northern Kansas and Nebraska reached into the 80's and 90's today! Will we ever reach that? Well at least not for the next month!

A vigorous cold front will move through late tonight into tomorrow afternoon, with a small wave developing off of it. Some rain showers and some possible snow showers on and off then as the wave deepens offshore, winds will kick up from the pressure gradient.

NOW, I know A LOT of you will hate to hear this - but yes, snow is in the realms of possibility, big possibility for Friday into Saturday. Timing, precipitation, amounts, all that stuff is still to be decided. BUT, all signs are pointing to the possibility of a nice big storm. 

The NAO and AO will go negative, as will the EPO while the WPO will be near nuetral and the PNA positive. THIS IS EXACTLY WHAT WE WANT FOR A BIG STORM! Blocking should set up over Greenland, and that will help slow down the storm coming. Now the track will be very dependent as that will decide the precip type and amounts for us. Right now we want it a bit north to give us heavier snow. 

?????????P.S. - JUST A HINT, OR OBSERVATION, BUT Comparing the data for this potential storm, to that of the March 1993 Blizzard - they are looking very similar. ??????

HAVE A GREAT NIGHT GUYS!

Monday Evening Upcoming Storm(s) Weather Update

Updated: 0100z/20:00/08:00PM

FORECAST

TONIGHT - Pretty much clear, lows in the low teens to single digits maybe in far northern and northwest areas of NY and New England.

TUESDAY - Clear skies will give way to thickening clouds, temperatures in the high 20's to right around 32°, Snow and sleet developing in the LATE afternoon (SEE SNOW MAP), 1-3" (could change, but we doubt it) into the evening and nighttime.

TUESDAY NIGHT - Snow/sleet changing over to ice/sleet/rain and finally all rain by Wednesday morning, nighttime temps around freezing...WATCH out this could be a SERIOUS ice situation as ground is frozen, and a lot OF cold air around...

WEDNESDAY - Ice/wintry mix changing over to all rain in the morning (around rush hour probably maybe a bit sooner/later) will continue throughout the morning, may be a bit heavy at times... Should be a lull in the precipitation during the afternoon as the Initial [storm] moves out then starting again in the evening. Temps in the high 30's to low 40's.

THURSDAY - We have a BIG potential to waking up with NEW snow on the ground and snow falling, as a new wave forms off the back of the Lake Cutter and comes through Wednesday Night through Thursday afternoon/evening...We WILL have cold air in place and this could be a BIG storm...we will keep you posted.

FRIDAY - COLLD Rapid freez up Thursday night, Highs in the low to mid 20's, mostly sunny.

FORECAST DISCUSSION

We have a VERY wild week ahead! A bit of a break today and most of tomorrow before our next storm arrives. A lake cutter will form and move across the area. Since the Center of the Low pressure will be FAR to the N and W of us, it will be a mostly rain event - HOWEVER, we have plenty of cold air in place so watch out for a big THUMP of snow Tuesday evening into the night 1-3" locally 2-4" before a changeover to rain/sleet/ice into Wednesday morning then all rain Wednesday. NOW the interesting part - a brief lull in the precipitation HOWEVER, bucket loads of moisture with this system, and the models have been insistant on another wave forming along the Arctic Frontal Boundary. Cold front will come through Wednesday night, new shot of colder air, and a new wave will form to the SW of us and move ALONG that frontal boundary towards us. THIS would be our all snow event, or Rain to ALL snow event starting Wednesday night and lasting through Thursday Afternoon likely. At this point accumulations could be anywhere from 5 to 10" although that could change. WHEREVER this front boundary sets up is where the axis of heaviest snows will be. If I take an average from ALL the 6 models with snowfall maps, that gives NYC metro area and northern Suburbs 6-8" snow. A wet heavy snow too.

So keep an eye out for our posts - wild week ahead. More cold for Friday as well with a flash freeze Thursday night.

***THE SNOW MAP IS ONLY FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING***

HAVE A GREAT NIGHT!

*******BLIZZARD ANALYSIS - WHAT WENT WRONG, WHAT WE COULD DO BETTER**********

******OK SINCE I GOT SOME REQUESTS FOR AN ANALYSIS OF THE STORM HERE IT IS FOR ANYBODY WHO WANTS TO UNDERSTAND WHAT HAPPENED. IF YOU ARE CONFUSED JUST ASK*******

FIRST OFF - I am seeing some articles saying that favoring one model was the main reason for this forecast bust. Sorry folks, but there were other reasons, outlined below that EVERYBODY missed - not just the models. We cannot blame computers for everything!

STORM HISTORY: The Storm formed further to the SW than originally thought and what was shown on the models, just to the east of South Carolina and with a more negative tilted trough axis. I think this led many to believe (including Dillon and I) that this would cause it to hug the coast more as it came up and then deepen and strengthen a bit sooner so that by the time it got up to LI it would stall and send those strong snows for a longer period of time. We should have seen this a bit on the Euro, as it hinted in the 12z model run on Monday that there would be a 30+" band over NYC through Central CT. If the storm had gone according to plan this would have been quite possible. 
The storm Storm moved East of Hatteras, NC but further West then models saw and that is when got those initial bands of heavy snow in the afternoon over LI and Southern CT and Westchester, part of NJ and PA as the clipper finished transferring its energy over to the developing storm. 
The storm moved up as planned, stalled as planned blah blah. 

So where did we get caught?

WHAT HAPPENED - First off, the Boundary between the Arctic air bleeding off the HP and the warmer air boundary was where it should have been the whole time, as shown on the models and upper air progs/surface maps and satellite, and the storm DID form along it as it should have. This made me believe even more it would follow a more westerly track as that’s where it would form and the Boundary was over NY. 
Once the storm got SE of LI though I noticed on the upper air progs we ran into trouble. All the models I think (that were printing out 24+” snow) were assuming this storm would:

(1) close off the trough at 700mb and then that would enable the heaviest snows to be focus N/NW of the low track (hence why I thought those bands S of Boston would move West) This storm SHOULD HAVE this by 6-8pm in order for anybody WEST of NY/CT Border to get the big snows. 

(2) The trough at 500mb did not close nearly in time, which should have been after midnight so that the storm would slow down and stall more throwing back more snow. It EVENTUALLY did this Early Tuesday morning (When we got that band of snow this morning).

(3) The trough (dip in the jet stream) was SO inverted even when it got up here that it allowed a ton of air to sink over into it over PA and around me over NY/CT border. This PROBABLY contributed to the precipitation being “dried” out of the storm on the WESTERN SIDE of the Precipitation shield as all this air rose and then had to sink elsewhere. If anybody was watching the radar at the time, it looked like a wall of snow JUST to the east of NYC and it was barely moving west, or looked like it was being eaten/squished up East of the Hudson.

(4) The rising warmer air and the sinking colder air around us PROBABLY contributed to more condensation which led to more latent heat and then the clouds just keep on floating up like balloons. (Clouds warmer then air around them) 

SO TO SUM IT ALL UP: The precipitation shield was just being eaten away as it came farther west, and then that combined with the sudden track trend east at like 2am led to the precipitation being lost over us. The low became to progressive and then got captured too late for us folks east of CT. Looks like NYC got a decent band late at night, and LI just kept getting pounded as the ocean probably helped with setting up those extreme bands of snow. In fact, another thing interested about the inverted trough – usually don’t see that sort of mesoscale extreme weather in winter…but hey Mother Nature does what mother nature wants. 

WHAT COULD WE HAVE DONE BETTER: 

1 - In the future, we will now look at, in much more detail the realtime data, IE Radar, Satellite, Water Vapor loops and upper air progs so that we can see what the storm is actually doing instead of what the model wants it to do.

2 - Do not lean towards/favor one model - pay more attention to trends on other models and combine them into our forecasts.

3- Look for the tiniest details, because they can be the biggest game changers!

This storm was always "TOO GOOD" to be true. It is amazing how PERFECTLY the variables have to add up to get a storm like this. One little thing can change everything.

HAVE A GOOD NIGHT FOLKS, THANKS FOR LISTENING, AND IF YOU HAVE ANY QUESTIONS - ASK!

*******MONDAY NIGHT FORECAST DISCUSSION*************

***ISSUING an Alert of Light to moderate snowfall Tomorrow Tuesday the 6th from mid morning until afternoon and possibly evening***

YESSS Folks first Alberta Clipper will be affecting us tomorrow from mid morning until the Afternoon and possibly evening hours. THE characteristics of Alberta Clippers, which are usually fast, and do not have THAT much moisture to deal with also make it quite difficult to forecast...SO, I have a feeling, based off of the latest data from the models, and looking at other maps, that we might be getting a bit more then the major sites are forecasting, and it might be a BIT MORE heavy than you think, as was the Snow on Saturday (Short lived, but it came down!).
SO! Here is my forecast, and a snow totals map will be posted. ANOTHER thing to keep in mind - The TEMPERATURES aloft in the Atmosphere are SO COLD (Below 0*C) that something to watch with this clipper will be "Fluff" Factor - USUALLY we go by a standard ratio of 10:1 when forecasting snow amounts (10" snow = 1" rain)...SO, on a map, .5" of QPF (Liquid) would be 5" of snow. 1" QPF would be 10" snow. NOW, because these temperatures are so cold, we could be looking at a 15 or 20:1 ratio...so, .3" QPF would yield 4.5-6" of snow with a 15-20:1 ratio!

So, the models right now are forecasting 1-2" of snow for us based off of a 10:1 ratio...assuming that we actually get a 15-20:1 ratio, that 1-2" (0.1-0.2" QPF) suddenly becomes 1.5-3" or 2-4" of snow.

In this forecast, I have used a 18:1 ratio, and have combined all of the major models to get an average amount of QPF for our area. This is reflected on the map!.
ANOTHER thing with this clipper, it will be Riding the Jetstream the whole way...so, what is usually a fast storm suddenly became faster. I think that once it hits the warm water it will rapidly intensify, and slow down and give us more snow - which may happen depending on the winds in the Jet, or may not happen. ALOTTA tiny details for even a small storm!

OTHER THEN THE CLIPPER, COLLLLDDDDEST TEMPS OF THE SEASON COMING THIS WEEK, THURSDAY WILL BE THE COLDEST. A MINOR PULLBACK THIS WEEKEND, THEN ANOTHER COLD SHOT.

************************FORECAST**************************

TONIGHT - COLLDDDD and Clear skies will make it EVEN COLDER! Those winds today was the first of several cold fronts to come through, and tonight temps will drop to the low to mid teens. Much colder as you make your way to the North and into the Mountains and NW towards the Canadian Border. Coastal areas a few degrees warmer then inland.

TOMORROW - Snow will begin early to mid morning and continue lightly, maybe some stronger bands but I don't think it will get too bad. Total accumulations 1-3" for now, this COULD change tomorrow keep an eye out! Snow will stick around until mid afternoon, maybe evening. TEMPS BARELY MAKING IT TO MID 20'S, COLDER INLAND.

WEDNESDAY - Highs in the mid to HIGH teens...Morning WINDCHILLS COULD GO AND STAY IN THE NEGATIVES!

THURSDAY - Highs in the LOW Teens, maybe even below 10*, windchills possibly -20* or less.

Friday we have another chance at a clipper, and Monday-Tuesday chance of a coastal storm developing which would bring snow.

SNOWFALL MAP BELOW, EXPECT UPDATES LATER!

WILL BE POSTING TEMP MAPS FOR THE NEXT WEEK, AND WINDCHILL TEMPS

WINDCHILL Temperatures for Tomorrow

High Temperatures Tomorrow!!! COLLDDD

Thursday Evening Discussion and Forecast - Important on next week storm(s)??

FIRST FEW POINTS

- As Of now looks like we have dodged a bullet with the Sunday storm. The main piece of it, the energy that was shown dropping from the North just wont be there and hence will not drop south, and a storm will not really form for anybody. SO, OFF THE TABLES FOR NOW...STILL A CHANCE FOR SOMETHING THOUGH SO KEEP AN EYE OUT!

- Christmas storm VERY tricky right now, but looks like a MASSIVE system...When all 10 Ensemble members of the Euro have a 964 Low forming...thats Bombogenesis right there, you know something BIG will likely happen. Who gets what, where, when exactly is not completely known yet, but lets keep an eye out for this one AS WELL.

- Pattern change coming, I am still confident we will lock into winter after Christmas. Of course the way the models are behaving anything could happen...but lets stick with the idea that after Christmas we go into more of a winter winter mode. Remember, for those snow lovers.., Historically December is not a snow maker of a month, and we on the East Coast USUALLY get the BIGGEST SNOWS January - early March when the cold is really set in - so give it some time, it will come!

- MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE RIGHT NOW....EVERY RUN THEY CHANGE COMPLETELY...SO, DO NOT BE SURPRISED IF YOU SEE ALOT OF CHANGES IN THE FORECASTS WITH THE BIG STORMS AS WE GET CLOSER TO THEM.

**************FORECAST**************

SHORT FORECAST TONIGHT AS SUNDAY AND PAST IS STILL VERY UNCERTAIN.

TONIGHT - Lows near 30*, lower up in the Highlands, to the NW. Along the coast up through Boston a little warmer. Clearing out.

FRIDAY - Highs in the mid 30's. Mostly sunny, a slight breeze will continue.

SATURDAY - Highs in the mid 30's again, mostly sunny, getting cloudy during night probably.....still uncertain. 

HAVE A GOOD NIGHT FOLKS!