Wednesday Evening Update - Summer, oh summer

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Updated: 0120z/21:20/09:20PM

---------------------------------FORECAST-----------------------------------

TONIGHT - Partly Cloudy/clear warmer lows in the mid 60's.

THURSDAY - Muggy and humid as a ESE flow sets up, sunny with clouds in the morning will give way to more clouds and a good chance for some t-storms in the afternoon, some could be strong, gusty winds and heavy bursts of rain. Hottest day of the week, highs in the mid to high 80's, could see 90° in a few spots.

FRIDAY - Warm but a bit drier, not AS humid but still humid, sunny, highs in the low to mid 80's.

*Tell ya one thing, the AC better be working tomorrow and Friday at school :)*

SATURDAY - T-storms return especially in the afternoon likely, as a low passes to the north and a cold front is dragged along with it, otherwise partly sunny/partly cloudy highs in the low to mid 80's.

-------------------------FORECAST DISCUSSION-------------------------

OKI DOKI! Enjoy today? Was not too hot or cold, nice and breezy smile emoticonperfect weather. Well do not get use to it!

High pressure will move offshore, and Bermuda High will strengthen a bit bringing a ESE/SSW flow and humid, warm air into the region especially getting into NYC-Jersey and South...Highs in the HIGH 80'S into the 90's south west of NYC, mid to high 80's with maybe a few 90's N/NW of NYC...coastal areas a bit cooler.

Tomorrow as a cold front slowly drags along and some disturbances ride along it watch out for scattered showers and t-storms especially in the evening after all the heating from the day, convection and instability will increase through the day. Plenty of water in the air, +1.5" so watch for heavy rain.

Cold front will bring in cooler and drier air for Friday into the weekend, along with High pressure building over us, not as muggy...BUT, LP moving through the N. Great Lakes and into Northern NY will drag a cold front with it, as well as a warm front ahead of it will increase the convection throughout the day and set up instability for a possibility of some strong t-storms and gusty winds into the evening. As that leaves the area comes with it HP and cooler air and then the cycle continues again...t-storms, warm air, cold air, etc. You know the drill!

Now A quick little El Nino Update! It might be easier for those reading this to view it on the blog page as the pictures will be lined up with the actual words...ANYWAY (Oh and sorry bout the pic quality JAMSTEC has to work on their maps)

First picture shows the predicted temperature anomalies from JAMSTEC, who is very reliable, for June-July-August. NOT as cool as last year, but still you can see it is not much ABOVE AVERAGE (unless you count +.5°C a lot). You can see Texas and much of the mid portion of the country below normal, following the El Nino. The important thing here is to watch what happens as the year goes on....carefully.

SECOND picture showing same thing, predicted temp anomalies but for September - October - November. Cold has expanded east more, and at the same time if you look at the El Nino graphs you can see it has reached its peak here and is declining and returning to a more modoki signature...same as last year 

wink emoticon

JAMSTEC SON Temp ANOMALIES

THIRD PIC showing Dec-Jan-Feb anomalies...WOW, almost ALL of the country WELL below average temps!!!! What does the El Nino Modoki index say? It gets stronger at the same time the temps get lower! HINT HINT smile emoticon

So, alot of models and a lot of people are saying there will be a massive El Nino...THIS IS TRUE (ISH) The models have been ALL over the place with the intensity...one thing is for sure, it will not be more then +2.5, most likely it will end up between 1.5-2 as the current trends are going...what is interesting though is that while the intensity forecasts have been changing, it has been more or less consistent of when it ends and what state it goes into after ending - Modoki...so if that gives any indication of what next winter will be like, especially since we had the same setup last winter....speaking of winter, I hear the snowpiles up in Boston are still going strong? Peter is this true? Lucky people ;)

There ya go! Latest update is done smile emoticon Have a nice night folks!

********TUESDAY NIGHT FORECAST/DISCUSSION, UPDATES ON WINTER STORM FOR WEEKEND...BIGGIE!***************

-POTENTIAL FOR A [BIG?] WINTER(Y) Type storm coming onto the short term models for this weekend, Saturday Night through Sunday night...maybe just maybe into Monday morning. DETAILS BELOW
- Tug Hill area off of Lake Ontario, Watertown area - LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCHES/WARNINGS IN EFFECT UNTIL FRIDAY MORNING. I would Not be surprised if you guys see anywhere from 1-2 feet or MORE in the persistent bands. So ENJOY IT, IF YOU ARE A SNOW LOVER...I WISH I WAS THERE I KNOW THAT!

- The Euro models AND the GFS are hinting at a MAJOR COLD SHOT in the 6-10 day period from now, I am talking 25+ degrees below average, possibly having a 0* day in NYC...I AM NOT SAYING THIS WILL HAPPEN, HOWEVER, IT IS SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE OUT THAT A BIG COLD SHOT MAY BE COMING...
**********WINTER STORM DETAILS for the Scenario I deem likely AT THIS POINT*******
STEP #1 Energy from the storm that will be affecting the Midwest and parts of the West Coast on New Years will move across the country while another area of low pressure that will bring some snow to the Northern Plains and North West drops down to the great lakes. THESE TWO SYSTEMS MERGE, and form what we weather weenies call "Lake Cutters" Basically the system will cut across the lake, and gather moisture, intensifying greatly...

STEP #2 The storm will LIKELY take this more NORTHERLY track (Although I think it will be further south, MORE COLD) and Consequently, as it moves through the area, it will suck in warm air from the south. SO AGAIN, ALONG THOSE COASTAL REGIONS...WATCH OUT IT WILL MOST LIKELY BE A MORE WET THAN SNOWY STORM, MORE ICEY TOO....HOWEVER:
1. As the storm makes its way through the area, it will bring in the warmer air from the south, however for a brief period of time..SO, even if it does get up to LOW 40's during middle of day, the storm will still be around later AND there will be PLENTY of cold air aloft for it to deal with - therefore, I think we are in for a more snowy event then we think....BUT...lets stick to more rain for now.

STEP #3...The system will move out of the area by Sunday night, leaving us MUCH colder as it brings in the cold air behind it. 

GUYS, I AM VERY WORRIED ABOUT THIS SYSTEM...The models are treating it as basically a "FRONTAL" system moving through the area, like a cold front...BUT IT IS NOT THAT! FURTHERMORE, the models are trying to "tear" the system apart as it moves through Western New York because of the INTENSE High pressure to the north of the system...I DO NOT THINK THIS WILL HAPPEN, AND THINK THE SYSTEM WILL TAKE A SLIGHTLY MORE SOUTHERN TRACK and CONSEQUENTLY be a colder storm for everybody.

One thing of IMPORTANCE, and of great interest...The NAO, which many people look to when they want to know when cold may be coming is NOT TO BE TRUSTED RIGHT NOW.... Last couple of weeks we had unusually HIGH temperatures and the NAO went NEGATIVE (Usually goes POSITIVE for Warmer Temps)...NOW we are getting colder and the NAO is going POSITIVE!...So, wacky things going on! Lets wait until mid February before we look at it as an Indicator of Warm/cold. 
OK ENOUGH BLABBER RIGHT NOW!

*********************FORECAST****************************

TONIGHT - COLLDDDD in the low 20's to High teens in the Northern Suburbs and interior NY...Along the coast a tad warmer. Clear, maybe some passing clouds.

WEDNESDAY/NEW YEARS EVE - Highs JUST about Freezing, again colder to the North and interior NY, warmer along the coast, sunny...a slight wind.

THURSDAY - Around the same temps, windy

FRIDAY - A TAD warmer, in the mid 30's, Sunny still windy.

PICS EXPLAINING THE WHOLE THING!

HAVE A NICE NIGHT FOLKS! And a HAPPY NEW YEARS!

*******SUNDAY EVENING WEATHER DISCUSSION******

OKI DOKI we have a bunch of things going on right now in the weather world, especially with this [hopefully the last] pattern change to set us into a hard core locked in winter.

- First cold shock to come over the next week and will push our temps back down where they belong in the low to mid 30's by the end of the week, maybe reaching 40*. The REAL cold shock comes towards the beginning/middle of next week with a Huge Continental Polar Air mass...so look forward to those cold temps coming back!

- SIN CITY - YES YOU! Snow is heading your way! middle of this week! Now, how does this relate to us over here on the east coast? Because what starts in the west ends in the east, and this is a very strong system, so how that energy travels over the US will dictate a possible storm for next weekend! Right now things are very iffy with this energy, so keep an eye out, COULD BE SNOW?!

- Calm week more or less after Monday Night for us folks here along the majority of the Eastern Seaboard, High pressure will build to the South of us and over us, give for a good amount of sunny colder and progressively colder days. 

//////////////////////////////Very Nice picture Below explaining the Origins of Air Masses and how they affect us!\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\

*******************FORECAST********************

TONIGHT - Lows in the mid to low 30's pretty much up the entire coast.

MONDAY - Highs in the Low to mid 40's, progressively colder North and West of NYC, warmer along the coast. Sunny.

TUESDAY - Highs in the low to mid 30's, again progressively colder North and West of the City as the core of that initial cold front moves through. Sunny, a bit of wind

WEDNESDAY - Highs just about near freezing, Sunny.

Thursday Evening Discussion and Forecast - Important on next week storm(s)??

FIRST FEW POINTS

- As Of now looks like we have dodged a bullet with the Sunday storm. The main piece of it, the energy that was shown dropping from the North just wont be there and hence will not drop south, and a storm will not really form for anybody. SO, OFF THE TABLES FOR NOW...STILL A CHANCE FOR SOMETHING THOUGH SO KEEP AN EYE OUT!

- Christmas storm VERY tricky right now, but looks like a MASSIVE system...When all 10 Ensemble members of the Euro have a 964 Low forming...thats Bombogenesis right there, you know something BIG will likely happen. Who gets what, where, when exactly is not completely known yet, but lets keep an eye out for this one AS WELL.

- Pattern change coming, I am still confident we will lock into winter after Christmas. Of course the way the models are behaving anything could happen...but lets stick with the idea that after Christmas we go into more of a winter winter mode. Remember, for those snow lovers.., Historically December is not a snow maker of a month, and we on the East Coast USUALLY get the BIGGEST SNOWS January - early March when the cold is really set in - so give it some time, it will come!

- MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE RIGHT NOW....EVERY RUN THEY CHANGE COMPLETELY...SO, DO NOT BE SURPRISED IF YOU SEE ALOT OF CHANGES IN THE FORECASTS WITH THE BIG STORMS AS WE GET CLOSER TO THEM.

**************FORECAST**************

SHORT FORECAST TONIGHT AS SUNDAY AND PAST IS STILL VERY UNCERTAIN.

TONIGHT - Lows near 30*, lower up in the Highlands, to the NW. Along the coast up through Boston a little warmer. Clearing out.

FRIDAY - Highs in the mid 30's. Mostly sunny, a slight breeze will continue.

SATURDAY - Highs in the mid 30's again, mostly sunny, getting cloudy during night probably.....still uncertain. 

HAVE A GOOD NIGHT FOLKS!