Wednesday Evening Update - Summer, oh summer

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Updated: 0120z/21:20/09:20PM

---------------------------------FORECAST-----------------------------------

TONIGHT - Partly Cloudy/clear warmer lows in the mid 60's.

THURSDAY - Muggy and humid as a ESE flow sets up, sunny with clouds in the morning will give way to more clouds and a good chance for some t-storms in the afternoon, some could be strong, gusty winds and heavy bursts of rain. Hottest day of the week, highs in the mid to high 80's, could see 90° in a few spots.

FRIDAY - Warm but a bit drier, not AS humid but still humid, sunny, highs in the low to mid 80's.

*Tell ya one thing, the AC better be working tomorrow and Friday at school :)*

SATURDAY - T-storms return especially in the afternoon likely, as a low passes to the north and a cold front is dragged along with it, otherwise partly sunny/partly cloudy highs in the low to mid 80's.

-------------------------FORECAST DISCUSSION-------------------------

OKI DOKI! Enjoy today? Was not too hot or cold, nice and breezy smile emoticonperfect weather. Well do not get use to it!

High pressure will move offshore, and Bermuda High will strengthen a bit bringing a ESE/SSW flow and humid, warm air into the region especially getting into NYC-Jersey and South...Highs in the HIGH 80'S into the 90's south west of NYC, mid to high 80's with maybe a few 90's N/NW of NYC...coastal areas a bit cooler.

Tomorrow as a cold front slowly drags along and some disturbances ride along it watch out for scattered showers and t-storms especially in the evening after all the heating from the day, convection and instability will increase through the day. Plenty of water in the air, +1.5" so watch for heavy rain.

Cold front will bring in cooler and drier air for Friday into the weekend, along with High pressure building over us, not as muggy...BUT, LP moving through the N. Great Lakes and into Northern NY will drag a cold front with it, as well as a warm front ahead of it will increase the convection throughout the day and set up instability for a possibility of some strong t-storms and gusty winds into the evening. As that leaves the area comes with it HP and cooler air and then the cycle continues again...t-storms, warm air, cold air, etc. You know the drill!

Now A quick little El Nino Update! It might be easier for those reading this to view it on the blog page as the pictures will be lined up with the actual words...ANYWAY (Oh and sorry bout the pic quality JAMSTEC has to work on their maps)

First picture shows the predicted temperature anomalies from JAMSTEC, who is very reliable, for June-July-August. NOT as cool as last year, but still you can see it is not much ABOVE AVERAGE (unless you count +.5°C a lot). You can see Texas and much of the mid portion of the country below normal, following the El Nino. The important thing here is to watch what happens as the year goes on....carefully.

SECOND picture showing same thing, predicted temp anomalies but for September - October - November. Cold has expanded east more, and at the same time if you look at the El Nino graphs you can see it has reached its peak here and is declining and returning to a more modoki signature...same as last year 

wink emoticon

JAMSTEC SON Temp ANOMALIES

THIRD PIC showing Dec-Jan-Feb anomalies...WOW, almost ALL of the country WELL below average temps!!!! What does the El Nino Modoki index say? It gets stronger at the same time the temps get lower! HINT HINT smile emoticon

So, alot of models and a lot of people are saying there will be a massive El Nino...THIS IS TRUE (ISH) The models have been ALL over the place with the intensity...one thing is for sure, it will not be more then +2.5, most likely it will end up between 1.5-2 as the current trends are going...what is interesting though is that while the intensity forecasts have been changing, it has been more or less consistent of when it ends and what state it goes into after ending - Modoki...so if that gives any indication of what next winter will be like, especially since we had the same setup last winter....speaking of winter, I hear the snowpiles up in Boston are still going strong? Peter is this true? Lucky people ;)

There ya go! Latest update is done smile emoticon Have a nice night folks!

Wednesday Evening Weather Update - Winter Storm coming!

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Updated: 0117z/21:17/09:17PM

----------------------------------FORECAST----------------------------------

TONIGHT - Lows in the low teens, clear, guys the clear spots and brisk wind will keep things nice n crisp and cold tonight!

THURSDAY - Highs in the low to mid 30's MAYBE just maybe up to 40° for some, clear and less windy.

FRIDAY - Cloudy temperatures in the low 30's, snow beginning between 1 and 3pm as of now as the storm approaches, snow will probably have a bit of a hard time sticking at first. Snow continuing through the afternoon into the night.

SATURDAY - Any snow will have ended overnight, total accumulations on the map below. Temperatures in the low to mid 40's.

--------------------------FORECAST DISCUSSION------------------------

A disturbance in the plains will continue to drop rain over the southern Plains and Southeast tonight and tomorrow, and at the same time NRG will drop down from Canada, developing our storm in the Carolina's region Thursday night into Friday. WHERE this NRG hooks up with our developing storm will dictate the exact track and whether or not it is able to make the left turn up the Coast and closer to us. FOR NOW, THOUGH this storm should make it to the Lower Hudson Valley, as it will likely interact with a very strong upper low feature around Hudson Bay...Now, that being said we will have to watch how much moisture makes it up into the area and how close to the coast the coastal low forms. Some of the models have it "reforming" into a nice and more powerful low off the LI coast, which would throw precip back. IN ANY CASE, the low is a CLOSED LOOP low, meaning most of the Precip will be N/NW of the track of the low. Right now this is just to the south of us - it would not take much for it to come a bit north.
Snow will be heavy, as the temperatures are marginally cold enough to support snow. Timing is Friday afternoon through late Friday night for all points east of NYC.

FIRST CALL MAP BELOW.

Longer range outlook, still looking to stay well below average temperatures for the next several weeks, and plenty of storm options. Whether or not they are rain or snow or both is still to be decided, but definitely storms on the horizon.

Dillon and I will be posting a winter Recap in the next few days and then in a couple weeks our spring outlook.

hAVE A GREAT NIGHT!

Wednesday Evening Weather Update - Some big changes coming!

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Update: 2130z/17:30/05:30PM

FORECAST

TONIGHT - Lows around freezing, a cold front has come through already, however the actual cold air will be delayed until tomorrow.

THURSDAY - Highs in the low to mid 40's, sunny and a bit of a breeze.

FRIDAY - Highs in the low to mid 40's, sunny not as breezy.

SATURDAY - Storm time! Looks like this one will be mainly a soaker, with a bit of snow on the front end possible but little to no accumulation if anything. Still some details to workout, but it will generally be rainy all day long with heavy rain possible. Highs in the low 40's.

FORECAST DISCUSSION

What a nice week we have had!! I bet everybody has appreciated the warmer temps, snow melting and sunny skies! Well...do not get use to it! This was a "false" spring, and the overall pattern is going BACK to our stormy and cold that we experienced for much of the last 3 months. Now, it will not be AS cold..but certainly well below the average temperatures. The "target" period for this pattern will be essentially the 15th through end of March and maybe into early April.

This weekend will feature a nice storm, however, even with colder air being shot in before, it will still be too warm across the board for us to get any real snow out of it, unless you are in Maine and far northern New England - this is a mostly to all rain event.

Getting into next week however, we do see ANOTHER possible storm that could be more snow then rain.

SO...Bottom line is, if you are looking at the point-and-click websites and seeing "End of winter" or "warmer temps coming" - sorry! Not right! Winter still has a hold on us!!!!

Have a great day! and as always, I will quote the Great Joe Bastardi, "Enjoy the weather, its the only weather you got!"

*******IMPORTANT UPDATE FOLKS!!!*********

**********TAKING A BIT OF A RISK HERE, BUT I THINK IT DESERVES TO BE PUT OUT************

LATEST MODEL DATA + SATELLITE AND RADAR DATA SHOWING THAT THIS CLIPPER WILL BE ABLE TO PICK UP SOME MORE MOISTURE OFF THE ATLANTIC AS IT PINWHEELS OUTTA HERE AND INTENSIFIES, A BIT SOONER ACTUALLY, AND THIS WILL **LIKELY*** DEVELOP SOME MODERATE BANDS OF SNOW IN THE MORNING RUSH HOUR. I HAVE WATCHED IT TREND MORE WITH EACH RUN, SO DILLON AND I THOUGHT WE SHOULD UPDATE THE SNOW MAP. 

STILL NOTE, CLIPPERS ARE VERY HARD TO PREDICT, BUT I THINK WE HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS ONE!, OTHER SNOW MAP STILL IN EFFECT IF THESE BANDS FAIL TO DEVELOP...MOTHER NATURE DOES WHAT MOTHER NATURE WANTS!

****MIDDAY UPDATE FOR THE STORM****

Snow Still falling at a good clip here in Irvington, expect it to stay as a Snow/Sleet mix for the next several hours for ALL areas NORTH of I95/I84 before changing over to an Icey rain to all rain by nightfall. Unless you are FAR north, WELL north of Albany, do not expect it to stay as snow past dinner time.

TOTAL daytime accumulations 1-2" and MAYBE 1-3" in the hills, Elevation dependent. 

Warm air starting to surge in as you can see on the image I have posted below..expect temps to go up into the mid to high 30's as it changes over to rain. Tomorrow HIGHS in the low to mid 50's. Rain. MORE ON THIS TONIGHT.

Have a great day!