Wednesday Evening Update - Summer, oh summer

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Updated: 0120z/21:20/09:20PM

---------------------------------FORECAST-----------------------------------

TONIGHT - Partly Cloudy/clear warmer lows in the mid 60's.

THURSDAY - Muggy and humid as a ESE flow sets up, sunny with clouds in the morning will give way to more clouds and a good chance for some t-storms in the afternoon, some could be strong, gusty winds and heavy bursts of rain. Hottest day of the week, highs in the mid to high 80's, could see 90° in a few spots.

FRIDAY - Warm but a bit drier, not AS humid but still humid, sunny, highs in the low to mid 80's.

*Tell ya one thing, the AC better be working tomorrow and Friday at school :)*

SATURDAY - T-storms return especially in the afternoon likely, as a low passes to the north and a cold front is dragged along with it, otherwise partly sunny/partly cloudy highs in the low to mid 80's.

-------------------------FORECAST DISCUSSION-------------------------

OKI DOKI! Enjoy today? Was not too hot or cold, nice and breezy smile emoticonperfect weather. Well do not get use to it!

High pressure will move offshore, and Bermuda High will strengthen a bit bringing a ESE/SSW flow and humid, warm air into the region especially getting into NYC-Jersey and South...Highs in the HIGH 80'S into the 90's south west of NYC, mid to high 80's with maybe a few 90's N/NW of NYC...coastal areas a bit cooler.

Tomorrow as a cold front slowly drags along and some disturbances ride along it watch out for scattered showers and t-storms especially in the evening after all the heating from the day, convection and instability will increase through the day. Plenty of water in the air, +1.5" so watch for heavy rain.

Cold front will bring in cooler and drier air for Friday into the weekend, along with High pressure building over us, not as muggy...BUT, LP moving through the N. Great Lakes and into Northern NY will drag a cold front with it, as well as a warm front ahead of it will increase the convection throughout the day and set up instability for a possibility of some strong t-storms and gusty winds into the evening. As that leaves the area comes with it HP and cooler air and then the cycle continues again...t-storms, warm air, cold air, etc. You know the drill!

Now A quick little El Nino Update! It might be easier for those reading this to view it on the blog page as the pictures will be lined up with the actual words...ANYWAY (Oh and sorry bout the pic quality JAMSTEC has to work on their maps)

First picture shows the predicted temperature anomalies from JAMSTEC, who is very reliable, for June-July-August. NOT as cool as last year, but still you can see it is not much ABOVE AVERAGE (unless you count +.5°C a lot). You can see Texas and much of the mid portion of the country below normal, following the El Nino. The important thing here is to watch what happens as the year goes on....carefully.

SECOND picture showing same thing, predicted temp anomalies but for September - October - November. Cold has expanded east more, and at the same time if you look at the El Nino graphs you can see it has reached its peak here and is declining and returning to a more modoki signature...same as last year 

wink emoticon

JAMSTEC SON Temp ANOMALIES

THIRD PIC showing Dec-Jan-Feb anomalies...WOW, almost ALL of the country WELL below average temps!!!! What does the El Nino Modoki index say? It gets stronger at the same time the temps get lower! HINT HINT smile emoticon

So, alot of models and a lot of people are saying there will be a massive El Nino...THIS IS TRUE (ISH) The models have been ALL over the place with the intensity...one thing is for sure, it will not be more then +2.5, most likely it will end up between 1.5-2 as the current trends are going...what is interesting though is that while the intensity forecasts have been changing, it has been more or less consistent of when it ends and what state it goes into after ending - Modoki...so if that gives any indication of what next winter will be like, especially since we had the same setup last winter....speaking of winter, I hear the snowpiles up in Boston are still going strong? Peter is this true? Lucky people ;)

There ya go! Latest update is done smile emoticon Have a nice night folks!

******THURSDAY NIGHT ON UPCOMING NOR'EASTER*******

OK, Honestly..I do not want to be doing a post right now because I just do not like the limited amount data that is available at the moment. HOWEVER, as I want to provide the LATEST, AND BEST forecasts for all y'all, here ya go.

I know A lot of you dont like details - IF YOU DO NOT...just scroll to bottom too see forecast and pics for maps on snow. But I think it is important to include the details.

Normally what happens with a Nor'Easter like this in the winter is we get a massive snowstorm. PROBLEM is this storm is arrive just a tad to early before that cold air sets in fully. Now this creates some issues for those who want snow down here. A RAPIDLY (AND I DO MEAN RAPIDLY) Deepening (Intensifying) low will develop off the Gulf of mexico tonight and spread heavy rain across the southern states/SE USA. It will move up the Coast tomorrow and move to a position just about 75-100 miles off the Coast of southern NJ/Delaware mid atlantic by Friday Night. It will continue its trek to the NE and drop 30+ Millibars in less then 24 hours...SO..in other words... it will go BOMBOGENESIS once it hits that warm water. It will move EAST OF Montauk and the Cape/Nantucket by Saturday Night.

With a storm THIS STRONG, AND INTENSIFYING SO RAPIDLY what happens, and this will help us, is that it evaporates and condenses the air so quickly that it actually creates its own cold air. This is called Dynamic cooling..and it can change rain to snow pretty quickly. So this is GOOD! NOW! PROBLEMS...Surface temperatures will be around 30-34° depending on where you are, then colder away from the coast down to high 20's. So...Coastal regions....you may end up with more of that snow/ice/rain mix for a while, which would cut down on Snow amounts. However...I think with this dynamic cooling, and the slightly colder solution that the euro shows we can get more snow. GOOD NEWS, IS THAT THE COLD AIR DOES COME QUICKLY, AND SO IT IS NOT INCONCEIVABLE (Princess Bride quote) THAT WE WOULD HAVE A SNOW TO RAIN/SNOW BACK TO SNOW EVENT!

****************EITHER WAY FOLKS, WE WILL GET SNOW! THIS IS NON-NEGOTIABLE AT THIS POINT. ITS JUST DOWN TO FINE TUNING THE TEMPS AND TRACK OF THIS STORM DOWN THE FEW MILES TO GET EXACT PRECIP AMOUNTS.********************

At this point I have limited data, so it is somewhat difficult to PINPOINT exactly whats going on. Maps are posted below, forecast as well.

PLEASE LOOK! GUYS, EITHER WAY THIS SATURDAY WILL BE UGLY!

********FORECAST*********

FRIDAY - Partly Cloudy becoming more cloudy as the system gets closer, Highs in the low 30's.

SATURDAY - SNOW ARRIVING EARLY MORNING, Like 5-6am likely maybe before. Should be light to moderate, Temperatures steady in upper 20's probably. Snow will continue throughout the morning and then likely change to a rain/snow/ice mix for a brief time in the afternoon before turning back to snow and continuing at a heavier clip through the evening and into nighttime at which point it will begin to move out..and completely be outta the area by Sunday morning. Highs on Saturday probably 34-36° in NYC and along immediate coast, to near 40/50 on Long Island. Temps inland from Coast 30-34° and quickly dropping to mid to high 20's during nighttime. As the storm rapidly intensifies off the coast do not be surprised for some gusty winds. 
TIMING - Saturday 5-6am until Saturday Midnight tapering off by Sunday EARLY MORNING.


SUNDAY - Cloudy skies will clear out to partly cloudy skies. Small chance of some snow showers, but nothing much.

MONDAY - Not going to go into detail, but we have ANOTHER possible Storm for Monday/Tuesday. It will cold enough that this would likely be all snow IF and only IF it hits. WILL not KNOW until Saturday night/Sunday on that one.

PLEASE REMEMBER FOLKS THIS MAP WILL LIKELY CHANGE. UPDATED MAP GOING UP AGAIN TOMORROW MORNING.

THIS, AS ALWAYS IS A TRICKY FORECAST...CHANGES ARE POSSIBLE.

********THURSDAY EVENING UPDATE, BIGGIE*********

OKI DOKI FOLKS...WE GOT A COUPLE NICE DAYS OF WEATHER...THEN WE HAVE A GOOD CHANCE AT IT ALL KINDA GOES DOWNHILL FOR NEXT WEEK  WINTER STYLE...SO GET READY!

- Looking at essentially 3 events over the next week:

One tonight into early tomorrow morning, THIS is our clipper, maybe 1-2" of fluff in the wee hours before it moves out, essentially acting as if it is a frontal wedge coming through the area...do not be surprised if we get some blurbs of 1-3" or more!

Second one Sunday night through Monday night - Dont know SPECIFICS yet, but lets say for now a mix of snow/ice/maybe rain and just icky!

THIRD one for Wednesday Night through Friday Morning, this one will likely be the biggest of the week, looking at again snow/sleet/ice/maybe some rain.

I am just putting it out there, DO NOT take this as a forecast, but I would NOT be surprised if by the end of next week we have a good 4-8" of snow on the ground if not more...AS OF NOW! AGAIN THIS CAN ALL CHANGE!

- COLD will start to ease off a bit for the weekend and into next week into low to mid 30's, but then it is looking likely that we will drop back down into 20's or colder after that!

- WINTER HAS ARRIVED, THIS IS ALL I CAN SAY!

CURRENT conditions at IHS Weather Station:

Temp: 16.5*F
Humidity: 64% and rising
Pressure: 30.27"
Winds: WSW @ 3 mph
DewPoint: 7*
Today we reached a high of 20.3 at 3pm, a low of 4.2* at 4am.

*******FORECAST******

TONIGHT - Temps dropping down to near 10*, clear becoming cloudy, some snow showers/light snow breaking out in the very early hours, max 1-2" of fluff.


FRIDAY - Snow showers/light snow in early morning taper off to snow showers, should clear up a bit partly cloudy by afternoon. Areas to the North and West will be a bit colder and have some longer bouts of snow...Temps rising to mid 20's...again colder North of NYC.

SATURDAY - Temps in mid to high 20's, clear, nothing really to worry about!

SUNDAY - Partly cloudy temps around 30* maybe low 30's, getting cloudier...storm possibly arriving nighttime - MORE later on this!

WILL GET INTO NEXT WEEK OVER WEEKEND!