Weather in the Hud with Dillon and Remy: joe bastardi

Wednesday, March 11, 2015

Wednesday Evening Weather Update - Some big changes coming!

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Update: 2130z/17:30/05:30PM

FORECAST

TONIGHT - Lows around freezing, a cold front has come through already, however the actual cold air will be delayed until tomorrow.

THURSDAY - Highs in the low to mid 40's, sunny and a bit of a breeze.

FRIDAY - Highs in the low to mid 40's, sunny not as breezy.

SATURDAY - Storm time! Looks like this one will be mainly a soaker, with a bit of snow on the front end possible but little to no accumulation if anything. Still some details to workout, but it will generally be rainy all day long with heavy rain possible. Highs in the low 40's.

FORECAST DISCUSSION

What a nice week we have had!! I bet everybody has appreciated the warmer temps, snow melting and sunny skies! Well...do not get use to it! This was a "false" spring, and the overall pattern is going BACK to our stormy and cold that we experienced for much of the last 3 months. Now, it will not be AS cold..but certainly well below the average temperatures. The "target" period for this pattern will be essentially the 15th through end of March and maybe into early April.

This weekend will feature a nice storm, however, even with colder air being shot in before, it will still be too warm across the board for us to get any real snow out of it, unless you are in Maine and far northern New England - this is a mostly to all rain event.

Getting into next week however, we do see ANOTHER possible storm that could be more snow then rain.

SO...Bottom line is, if you are looking at the point-and-click websites and seeing "End of winter" or "warmer temps coming" - sorry! Not right! Winter still has a hold on us!!!!

Have a great day! and as always, I will quote the Great Joe Bastardi, "Enjoy the weather, its the only weather you got!"

Sunday, March 1, 2015

7 P.M. Sunday Evening Storm/Weather Update

We thought we should try a different way of giving updates on the page...Please, please tell us if you like this way or the other way better. Your comments are key, as we do this for all of you!

FORECAST

TONIGHT - Snow, heavy at times will continue throughout the night, total accumulations between 3-6" with locally 4-8" very possible depending on where those bands set up over us. Temperatures will stay steady in high teens to low low 20's. Snow will taper off and end between 2-4am, definitely by 5am for almost all west of Hartford.

MONDAY - Clouds and possibly a few stray snow showers early will give way to mostly sunny skies behind the storm, highs in the low 30's. Winds will be a bit frisky, WNW @ 15-20mph gusts to 25mph maybe.

MONDAY NIGHT - Clear, lows in the low teens.

TUESDAY - Clear turning cloudy quickly, with likely light snow developing in the evening and maybe a big thump of front end snow as our next storm approaches...still some things to work out with the storm so more updates later on this. Highs near freezing.

WEDNESDAY - Ice/sleet probably over to all rain, again more details to workout.

FORECAST DISCUSSION

Our current storm will continue to trudge northeast tonight, the precipitation shield will eventually turn to the NE/ESE tonight. Most of the snow will end around NYC between 2-4am, definitely by 5am. Thumping will continue and maybe a bit of ice as the thermal gradient comes northward - what is happening is we get this frontal wedging, and 40-50 mph winds in the lower jet stream from the South with warm air slamming into the cold arctic air - this creates a TON of lift and perfect dynamics for the snow as the cold air is forcing that warm air straight up where it can condense and fall as snow. SO, storm totals still on key with our map from last night. a general 3-6/4-8" for most N/NE of NYC.

WE get a ONE DAY break, tomorrow before our next storm roles in. This is a difficult storm, and actually a bit of 2 storms in one. First a lake cutter will ride the St. Lawrence river, and likely give us a good front end thump of snow Tuesday night before changing over to ice/sleet then rain for Wednesday. A lull in the precip as the LC moves out..BUT we have an interesting development as the models are seeing an LP form along an ana front just to the SW of us..NOW, as this LP moves towards us, remember we will have had a cold front come through Wednesday night with the Lake Cutter - this looks to be SNOW as it comes through, and COULD dump a good amount of snow. Just to give an idea, the GFS has 16" for us in the next 5 days...9" if you take off whats falling now. The European has 13" for the same period, 8" if you take off today's snow. The Canadian has 3", the NAM has 8"...so all somewhat similar.

If there is one word to describe this week it is: WILD.

Anyway, please let us know how you like this new format, and enjoy the weather, its the only weather you got! (As Joe Bastardi always says!)

About Us

Remy Mermelstein - I am 16 and in 10th grade at Irvington High School in Irvington, NY. My love for weather has been around all my life, starting with my absolute obsession with winter and snowstorms since I was a toddler. In addition to weather, I pursue an active life in architecture, interning at a local architects office (Website can be found HERE) and doing many community projects, building, designing and landscaping. I am pursuing a pilot’s license as well, and my knowledge and love for weather helps greatly when flying. My weather page, Weather or Not in the Rivertowns with Remy Mermelstein has been up for about a year now, and I update it at least every other day or more with the latest in weather. I study weather extensively on my own time, and am extremely active in the forums on many weather sites, my favorite being Weatherbell where the knowledge of some of the world’s greatest forecasters are available to me, as well as the massive community of meteorologists, climatologists and pure hobbyists this world has. Dillon and I are also currently working with Joe D'aleo on Science Research involving correlations and effects between the NAO/AO/AMO/PDO...etc... Every day brings a new realm of learning to us here at Weather in the Hud, and every day we learn more. So thank you for joining us here to read our forecasts! And, as always, if you have suggestions, advice about our posts, or the weather and our forecasting PLEASE tell us - we are still students and we recognize that, and want to learn as much as we can. Thank you.

Dillon Palmieri – Hi! I am a sophomore at Irvington High School in New York. Like my colleague Remy, my obsession with meteorology started at a young age when I became fascinated by tornadoes at the age of four. From there, my interest in the field expanded to winter storms, severe weather, and finally grew enough for me to want to create my own weather forecasts. Starting last spring (2014), I began officially doing weather forecasts for the public in the Hudson Valley region with Remy on our Facebook page Weather or Not in the Rivertowns. Our popularity quickly grew into hundreds of followers as our forecasts were consistently accurate and provided detailed information that would otherwise not be provided for a specific area such as the Hudson Valley. I also am currently working with Joe D'Aleo, a very well-known meteorologist employed at Weatherbell on a science research project studying the effects of the AMO, PDO, NAO, and AO on global climate. I wish to thank you for visiting our site and please know we welcome any and all input from our followers to make our site better.