Wednesday Evening Weather Update - Some big changes coming!

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Update: 2130z/17:30/05:30PM

FORECAST

TONIGHT - Lows around freezing, a cold front has come through already, however the actual cold air will be delayed until tomorrow.

THURSDAY - Highs in the low to mid 40's, sunny and a bit of a breeze.

FRIDAY - Highs in the low to mid 40's, sunny not as breezy.

SATURDAY - Storm time! Looks like this one will be mainly a soaker, with a bit of snow on the front end possible but little to no accumulation if anything. Still some details to workout, but it will generally be rainy all day long with heavy rain possible. Highs in the low 40's.

FORECAST DISCUSSION

What a nice week we have had!! I bet everybody has appreciated the warmer temps, snow melting and sunny skies! Well...do not get use to it! This was a "false" spring, and the overall pattern is going BACK to our stormy and cold that we experienced for much of the last 3 months. Now, it will not be AS cold..but certainly well below the average temperatures. The "target" period for this pattern will be essentially the 15th through end of March and maybe into early April.

This weekend will feature a nice storm, however, even with colder air being shot in before, it will still be too warm across the board for us to get any real snow out of it, unless you are in Maine and far northern New England - this is a mostly to all rain event.

Getting into next week however, we do see ANOTHER possible storm that could be more snow then rain.

SO...Bottom line is, if you are looking at the point-and-click websites and seeing "End of winter" or "warmer temps coming" - sorry! Not right! Winter still has a hold on us!!!!

Have a great day! and as always, I will quote the Great Joe Bastardi, "Enjoy the weather, its the only weather you got!"

**************9:00PM UPDATE TUESDAY NIGHT*************

SO...We got several events coming up! First one for Thursday, Likely will form too far to the East for anybody to get anything of big significance. Right now likely 1-3" Thursday afternoon through Friday Morning. WE WILL Keep you posted if this changes. First snow map tomorrow night for the event.

Second event for the weekend - still far out so nothing definite, but the models are definitely showing something forming that COULD be QUITE BIG if it forms right. Picture below showing it.

Third event would be Early to middle of Next week during our vacation. Still to early to tell anything more with confidence.

Fourth event would be later in the week after the third event. Again still early to say ANYTHING with confidence - for all we know it could not even happen.

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EXTREME, AND I DO MEAN EXTREME COLD COMING FOLKS...Just to give you an idea - the models depicting temperature ANOMOLIES (So +/- of average) are saying on average the next 16 days and if not more will be -3 to -16° BELOW average!!! OR MORE!!

FIRST SHOT OF THE COLDEST AIR will be Thursday through the weekend. Folks, Lows in the negatives are possible and Highs in the single digits to low teens....get ready for the cold!!!

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TONIGHT - Cold and clear Highs in the low to mid teens, maybe 20° in NYC progressively colder as you get up to Boston and N/NW of NYC.

WEDNESDAY - Colder then today, Highs in the High 20's maybe low 30's, sunny.

THURSDAY - Mostly cloudy with light snow developing in the afternoon, Highs probably right below freezing. Snow will continue on and off through the night, most likely 1-3" with localized 2-4" possible.

FRIDAY - Maybe some light snow in the morning, then clearing out, COLLLDDD first SHOT of BRUTAL COLD AIR THURSDAY NIGHT! Highs BARELY REACHING 20° Friday. A Brisk wind will keep the windchills very low was well!!!

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Have a great night guys!!

*********WEDNESDAY EVENING WEATHER UPDATE**********

As Always, THANKS for following the page/blog and supporting us. Be sure to spread the word about us!!!

EASTERN NEW ENGLAND AND LONG ISLAND DIGGING OUT FROM THE "EPIC" STORM...REPORTS FROM 20" TO OVER 36" IN SOME PLACES. MORE SNOW ON THE WAY FOR SOME OF THEM TOO!
NOW, onto the weather!! We have a couple of key events heading our way...first one tomorrow night!!!

- First event - a clipper will pass to the North, a general Coating to an INCH, MAYBE 2" FOR NOW, but I am watching this closely as we could end up with a situation similar to a couple weeks ago with that clipper on the Friday morning when schools should have had a delay.....if you remember! AREAS TO THE NORTH EAST, Boston, Mass, CT, 3-6" IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS CLIPPER. MAINE - BOY YOU GOT WINTER STORM WARNINGS UP ALREADY, 6+" ON THE WAY!

- SECOND event, BIGGER, as of now for SUNDAY - MONDAY. We will have a storm developing in the West that will move East and either pass to the North OR south of us - right now, to the south, but the models are waffling around so we shall have to wait a few days before going to specifics. TRACK will be important as this could be rain or snow or mix or rain to snow, vise versa.

- THIRD EVENT, FAR OUT, but a POSSIBLE storm coming up next Thursday ish. All I am gonna say right now.

COLD WILL CONTINUE TO GRIP THE NORTHEAST, HIGHS ON AVERAGE 2-6° BELOW AVERAGE, WITH SOME SHOTS OF MUCH COLDER AIR IN BETWEEN AT LEAST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF WEEKS. 

A VERY ACTIVE PATTERN, SO KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR UPDATES FROM DILLON AND I.

*********FORECAST**********

TONIGHT - FRIGID in the single digits, wind chills MAY and very well COULD reach into the Negatives, any clouds should move out - but not for long.

THURSDAY - Highs right around 30° or less, especially as you get N/NW of NYC. Coastal areas a bit warmer as wind from the NE dies down a bit. Light Snow/Snow showers developing during the night, a coating to an inch maybe 2" for now - will know more tomorrow and will update y'all accordingly. SNOW MAP BELOW.

FRIDAY - Morning snowshowers/light snow will lead to partly cloudy maybe sunny skies in the afternoon, Highs in the LOW 30'S, again progressively colder as you get North and West of NYC. 

SATURDAY - COLDER, Highs in the LOW 20's. Sunny.

Snow map below for the CLIPPER, PLUS a map of snow totals from the blizzard. You can see who got the gold!

*********2PM UPDATE - OR SHOULD I SAY APOLOGY?************

Obviously at this point in the day the storm is moving out, and many of you are probably wondering what happened. There is not much more for me to add from what Dillon posted, but I do want to explain something:

When you have multiple models, and one of them being the one that is most widely trusted and regarded as the best telling you that a massive storm will affect your area and drop 20+" for 3 or 4 CONSECUTIVE days (6-8 models runs or more) then generally that plays out as it said it would. But it must be understood that Mother nature will do what she does. This storm formed further SW then the models predicted, and had a more negative tilt. The Arctic Air boundary, which it was forming along was also fairly west over NY. These observations on the radar and satellite led many to believe that it would continue to be a bit further west then the models had, and stay around longer with the more negative tilt. It was still further west then expected with OUR LAST update Last night @ 10:20pm. So why suddenly after 2am did it shift east? This is not known, at least to me yet...but I will be finding out. EVEN when the 0z Euro model came out at 1:30am...it had us still getting 12-18". 

This does not mean however that Dillon, me, or any other meteorologists forecast for 20+" NYC and North was right and should not take blame. It was wrong. We understand that. Busts happen though, and we cannot control that. Dillon and I spent 18+ hours (you can check the phone log) on the phone in the last 4 days talking about the storm and our forecasts, all the different ways it could go, amounts, etc...everything was used to make the forecast, plus 2 hours of research and writing each post...but hey what can you do. 

SO, We are sorry for any inconvenience this may have caused. We hope you continue to view our page for Weather forecasts/updates.

If anybody continues to have questions as to why this happened, then email me, or private message me. 

FOR THOSE OF YOU EAST OF THE CT RIVER, and on Long Island - WELL LUCKY YOU, because you are the big winners with this storm. 

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NOW, onto the next few day/week.

TODAY - MAYBE a few stray snow here and there otherwise snow ending and clouds clearing out late, still a bit windy steady in mid to low 20's.

WEDNESDAY - Partly cloudy becoming mostly sunny highs in the high 20's still a bit windy.

THURSDAY - Partly cloudy Highs steady around 30°, clouds arriving at night, maybe some light snow during the night as we have a possible clipper coming by.

FRIDAY - Maybe some snow in the morning with a passing clipper, otherwise Cloudy highs in the low 30's.

We have a possible event for Next Sunday into Monday. We will not start coverage on this until Friday at the earliest most likely.