Saturday Evening Discussion and FORECAST Updates

*******************ONCE AGAIN FOLKS - VERY VERY BUSY TIME FOR WEATHER THESE NEXT FEW WEEKS, AND A VERY ACTIVE PATTERN.**************************

I know most of you do not generally like to read all the nuts and bolts technical information that I have to go through and look at to make these posts, but I REALLY wanted to share with you a few technical things that I think are interesting, and you might want to know, that have to do with the current weather and what I believe will begin to set in for the winter. So if you wanna learn something new, read! If not, skip ahead to the bottom where the Forecast is.

Among MANY things that control our weather, and climate are some things called NAO/AO/PDO/AMO/EPO/WPO/PNA...These are different Teleconnections and Oscillations that essentially measure Air pressure, and Sea Surface Temperatures at different regions around the world. In the winter, what generally happens, is the NAO (North Atlantic Oscillations) and AO (Arctic Oscillations) favor negative trends. Negative trends favor COLDER conditions across much of North America, and therefore, when the NAO/AO are negative, you can almost surely bet we will be seeing cold air that correlates with when they go negative. to put briefly what happens when the NAO goes negative, is we get whats called Blocking in the atmosphere to the NE of us over New Foundland, and a Huge Ridge (Area of positive pressure) over Greenland (Sometimes Called Greenland Blocking). We also usually see a ridge over the Gulf of Alaska. With this setup, we see low pressure more prevalent over the USA...hence the storminess. What this allows is for the Jet stream to dip down into the USA, and that allows that COLD arctic air to dive south. When the AO goes negative, we also end up with a very similar situation, though usually more LOW pressure over Greenland.
NOW, for this winter, what is interesting is how the PDO fits into all of this. The PDO are Pacific Decadel Oscillations, and this is basically measures of SST's in the Pacific Oceans. Without getting to much into details, the PDO usually exists in 30 year cycles of Warm and cold. Currently, and since about 1978 we have been in a warm cycle. What this means is warmer waters around Alaska and west coast, colder Water in the middle of the Pacific north of 20* N Latitude. It also favors more El Ninos (We are in a weak El Nino Right Now). Usually though in a Warm cycle, After the first 10-15 years, it begins to turn colder. A Warm PDO ALSO favors More Atlantic Hurricanes (LOOK AT SANDY) that make landfall, and MORE GREENLAND BLOCKING, WHICH LETS IN THAT COLD AIR AND MORE SNOWSTORMS.

SO, For this winter, to sum it all up, the pattern really starts to LOCK in around Christmas this year so it seems, with the AO/NAO..etc. starting to go Negative hinting and more SUSTAINED COLD. Warmer then Average SST's in the Atlantic will diminish, and blocking will begin to setup over Greenland (sustained) and Gulf of Alaska allowing that cold air in. The Jet stream will feature a more N-S Split of the two then usual, which will continue to allow for more of these Nor'Easters to form because it carries and allows them to form in the Gulf and ride the coast up. AS I SAID WEEKS AGO, I still believe, that ONCE this winter locks in, and that pattern is set - we will be IN winter for a while and locked in.

SO, JUST SOME TECHNICAL INFO ON OUR CLIMATE. THIS ALSO HAPPENS TO BE WHAT DILLON AND I ARE STUDYING IN SCIENCE RESEARCH, AND WE HAVE THE GREAT PRIVELAGE TO WORK WITH Joe D'aleo who was a founder of the Weather Channel, and professor, and is a leading meteorologist in the world and expert on this type of stuff. So, IF ANYBODY HAS QUESTIONS - ASK AWAY!
PS - I HAVE ATTACHED AN IMAGE EXPLAINING WHAT I AM TALKING ABOUT - NOT MY IMAGE, IT IS FROM JOE D'ALEO'S AWESOME PAPER!

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NOW ONTO THE WEATHER!

VERY ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER COMING UP - Right off the bat, we have POTENTIALLY THREE Systems to come THROUGH THE AREA between now and Christmas.

-1ST Low Pressure Forms out in midwest from the mess left over from the storms that hit the West Coast. RIGHT NOW, it goes over the Great lakes, sorta gets diminished and reforms once well away from us, but there is ALOT of other things involved with this, and I have a feeling we may get a bit more of it then we think right now. As of now though, just some showers from it Tuesday afternoon/Night.

-2ND Possible Nor'Easter SUNDAY-MONDAY of next week, this could be a snow maker, but it is still to early to tell...IT MUST BE WATCHED THOUGH, as the Pattern WILL BE SETTING IN FOR COLDER AIR TO BE DOMINANT AND CONSISTENT.

-3RD CHRISTMAS! YES, THERE IS A POSSIBLE SYSTEM THAT COULD AFFECT US ON CHRISTMAS...So, it is still over 10 days out so HARD to tell, but the POSSIBILITY IS THERE. Must ALSO be watched!!!!!!!

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TONIGHT - Lows near 32*, clear...not much going on
SUNDAY - Highs high 30's, to low 40's...colder inland and North as you get into Boston Area, Sunny.
MONDAY - Sunny, Highs near 40*
TUESDAY - Sunny then turning Cloudy, Highs in low 40's. Rain Showers in afternoon - evening, will clear out during the night.
WEDNESDAY - BRIEF WARMUP, Highs mid to HIGH 40's, Mostly Cloudy though, maybe some sun peeking through as system exits to the East.
THURSDAY - COLDER, Highs barely reaching high 30's, stuck in Low to MID 30's. Sunny.
FRIDAY - Highs just about at freezing, 30-33*, Sunny.

Have a nice night folks!

Monday Evening Update and Discussion - FULL ON STORM MODE GUYS

OK GUYS WE ARE IN FULL ON STORM MODE
A MAJOR NOR'EASTER WILL BE AFFECTING THE AREA FROM LATE TONIGHT UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT, POSSIBLY INTO THURSDAY EARLY MORNING.

Now, for the forecast! GUYS, AGAIN THERE IS A BUST POTENTIAL WITH THIS STORM, THIS FORECAST IS BASED OFF THE LATEST DATA AVAILABLE TO US, SO LOOK OUT FOR UPDATES!

*****FOR THE BULK OF THIS STORM, THE STORM WILL BE BRINGING TO MUCH WARM AIR OFF THE OCEAN TO ALLOW FOR REAL SNOW, HOWEVER, AND THIS IS VERY IMPORTANT
THE AIR IN THE ATMOSPHERE, WILL BE VERY COLD, AND THEREFORE PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS MAY NOT HAVE TIME TO MELT IN THE WARMER AIR NEAR THE SURFACE, GIVING THE HUGE POTENTIAL FOR ICE, SLEET, AND MAYBE SNOW - SO WATCH OUT, ESPECIALLY DEPENDING ON WHEN THE PRECIP GETS HERE TONIGHT!

TONIGHT - Rain Developing LATE, AND VERY LIKELY MIXING WITH ICE...Lows in the low 30's, a Northeast wind 10-20mph will bring in that cold air as well. 

TOMORROW (TUESDAY)- ITS SHOW TIME, HEAVY RAIN spreads throughout the morning and into the nighttime as the Center of the storm approaches and MAKES THAT CLASSIC SANDY LIKE HOOKED LEFT TURN INTO THE COAST!!! I WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF WE GET WET, HEAVY FLAKES, SOME ICE AND SLEET mixed in, as the air in the atmosphere will certainly be cold enough for the precip to not have a chance to melt possibly on the way down. Highs in the mid 30's, Winds 20-30mph possibly gusting up and over 40mph from the Northeast-NorthWest.

TUESDAY NIGHT - Rain will continue, start to let up, chance of some snow MIXING in, I do not think there will be much accumulation. Temps in the low to mid 30's.

WEDNESDAY - Rain showers/Steady light rain on and off. What is happening is the Low is going to reform around the center of low pressure and loop/pinwheel back around giving a second round of precip. NOW, it looks like it will get that COLD air more readily, and not the warmer ocean air, so WATCH OUT FOR SNOW MIXING IN. Temps again mid 30's Winds 10-20mph

WEDNESDAY NIGHT - Rain and Snow Showers/sleet/ice maybe. Temps near 30* Winds 10-15mph diminishing.

*****GUYS NEAR THE COAST, EXPECT BEACH EROSION AND GALE FORCE WINDS, FLOODING IS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN LOW LYING AREAS*********

HAVE A GOOD NIGHT FOLKS!

WIND GUST MAPS - GUYS THAT 40-50MPH GUSTS IN OUR AREA!

STORM TRACK

EUROPEAN SNOWFALL OUTPUT - LIKELY TO CHANGE

Welcome to Weather in the Hud with Remy Mermelstein and Dillon Palmieri!

Welcome! Dillon and I have created this blog as another way for you to get our forecasts, discussions, maps and pictures and expand our horizon beyond Facebook. Our posts will be the same as on Facebook, and will include everything that we do on our FB Page. If you are new to us, you can go look at previous and current posts on our Facebook Page which can be found HERE. We will also begin the process of making a formal website soon, so look forward to updates about that. 

In addition to welcoming you to our new blog, I think it is a good idea to provide some background on who we are, and why you should listen to us about your everyday weather, as well as longer term weather and climate.

Remy (Me) - I am 16 and in 10th grade at Irvington High School in Irvington, NY. My love for weather has been around all my life, starting with my absolute obsession with winter and snowstorms since I was a toddler. In addition to weather, I pursue an active life in architecture, interning at a local architects office (Website can be found HERE) and doing many community projects, building, designing and landscaping. I am pursuing a pilots license as well, and my knowledge and love for weather helps greatly when flying. My weather page, Weather or Not in the Rivertowns with Remy Mermelstein has been up for about a year now, and I update it at least every other day or more with the latest in weather. I study weather extensively on my own time, and am extremely active in the forums on many weather sites, my favorite being Weatherbell where the knowledge of some of the worlds greatest forecasters are available to me, as well as the massive community of meteorologists, climatologists and pure hobbyists this world has. Dillon and I are also currently working with Joe D'aleo on Science Research involving correlations and effects between the NAO/AO/AMO/PDO...etc... Everyday brings a new realm of learning to us here at Weather in the Hud, and everyday we learn more. So thank you for joining us here to read our forecasts! And, as always, if you have suggestions, advice about our posts, or the weather and our forecasting PLEASE tell us - we are still students and we recognize that, and want to learn as much as we can. Thank you.

Dillon Palmieri – Hi! I am a sophomore at Irvington High School in New York. Like my colleague Remy, my obsession with meteorology started at a young age when I became fascinated by tornadoes at the age of four. From there, my interest in the field expanded to winter storms, severe weather, and finally grew enough for me to want to create my own weather forecasts. Starting last spring (2014), I began officially doing weather forecasts for the public in the Hudson Valley region with Remy on our Facebook page Weather or Not in the Rivertowns. Our popularity quickly grew into hundreds of followers as our forecasts were consistently accurate and provided detailed information that would otherwise not be provided for a specific area such as the Hudson Valley. I also am currently working with Joe D'Aleo, a very well-known meteorologist employed at Weatherbell on a science research project studying the effects of the AMO, PDO, NAO, and AO on global climate. I wish to thank you for visiting our site and please know we welcome any and all input from our followers to make our site better.

ONCE AGAIN! WELCOME TO WEATHER IN THE HUD WITH REMY MERMELSTEIN AND DILLON PALMIERI WE HOPE YOU ENJOY IT!