********8:00PM UPDATE WEDNESDAY**********

Evening guys!!! Ok....weather changing ever day for us here in terms of whats on the models - so lets see whats going on!

- Clipper tomorrow will just be a glorified Arctic Cold front likely, as the low will pass to far to the North and it will be too dry. SO, as of now chance of snow showers and some light snow from midday through the evening and into the night possible. IF ANY accumulation, only a coating to an inch - but WILL likely be nothing big.

- Storm for the weekend still on the models, what has to be kept in mind is that it will be BRUTALLY COLD during that storm. SO, even if we only get the 3-5" that the models are saying - THAT COULD EASILY BE 6-12"+ WITH HIGHER SNOW RATIOS THAT COULD VERY WELL BE PRESENT. HOWEVER, AND A BIG HOWEVER, I am not making a forecast here for this storm as I am seeing some things on the models that are making me believe it will be a bit different - just keep in mind it could very well be a big bad storm.

- ANOTHER storm showing up on the models for Tuesday of next week...still early to really tell whats going on, but something is there.

- Another possible system after that later in the week still

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BRUTALLY cold temps coming Thursday and into the weekend AND BEYOND!! SERIOUS GUYS! COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON!

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TONIGHT - Clear lows in the low to mid teens.

THURSDAY - Highs around freezing, cloudy with snow showers possible and maybe some light snow, a coating to an inch if anything. Winds will be gusty as the Arctic front slams through in the afternoon. BRUTAL COLD AT NIGHT, LOWS IN THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS WIND CHILL IN THE NEGATIVES.

FRIDAY - Highs barely making it to the mid teens, windchill will be low too. Mostly sunny.

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HAVE A GREAT NIGHT FOLKS!

*********TUESDAY EVENING UPDATE*********

OK guys not A LOT going on for us in the next week in terms of weather. Some of you may have seen my comment on weather.com about their post "BIG Pattern change coming", or SOME may have SEEN the headline on their site. WELL...JUST SO WE ARE CLEAR...***************THERE IS NO..I REPEAT NO BIG PATTERN CHANGE****************
Sure, we will see a warmup over the next couple of days STARTING for the weekend..and compared to what WE have experienced this will be a BIG warmup...BUT THE TEMPERATURES WILL NOT REALLY GO ABOVE AVERAGE - AND IF THEY DO...ONLY BY ABOUT 3/4°!!!!! 

What is happening, is that the EXTREME Cold Siberian and Arctic air that has been GRIPPING the country for a week or so is RUNNING OUT...Listen folks, THERE ISNT AN ENDLESS SUPPLY OF COLD AIR! AT SOME POINT IT MUST RUN OUT! AND WHEN IT DOES - GUESS WHAT!!! IT GETS A BIT WARMER!!!!

So, when the "Weather Channel" says "BIG PATTERN CHANGE" I GET QUITE UPSET - BECAUSE the OVERALL pattern that is controlling the weather right now, IS NOT CHANGING!!!! AND IN FACT..IF IT DOES CHANGE..which wont be for a couple weeks AT BEST, IT WILL CHANGE TO FAVOR A MORE STORMY AND COLD (possibly) pattern. 

What we are experiencing over the next couple of days, is a short lived, weak warmup from a disapearance of cold air. AND THAT IS IT. No pattern change.

OK ENOUGH OF MY RANTING - JUST HAD TO GET THAT OFF MY CHEST!

SO RIGHT ON TO THE FORECAST SINCE THERE IS NOTHING ELSE TO TALK ABOUT WEATHER WISE

TONIGHT - COLD and clear, Highs in the low to mid teens...pretty much throughout the whole Northeast, Very northern parts along the border will dip into Negatives.

WEDNESDAY - MAYBE, JUST MAYBE Some flurries in the morning but I DOUBT it..and that would only be for NYC and south. Otherwise, mostly sunny Highs near 30° getting into 20's and teens farther North and West of NYC.

THURSDAY - The coastal storm that WAS SUPPOSED TO SLAM US..well it decided to fizzle up and develop WAY out to sea...so NO STORM, instead Highs just around 30°, again colder N/W of NYC..sunny.   (Dillon and I are VERY upset about this...sunniness..so is the rest of the weather weenie world  )

FRIDAY - Sunny, windy too Highs in HIGH 20°'s...into low 20°'s Upstate and North/West of NYC.

SATURDAY - Temps steady near 30-32° colder as you get farther north and e/w of NYC. Sunny.

Getting into Sunday/monday we have a POSSIBLE..and I will be very cautious about this, but a possible event for that time period. At this point that is all I will say.

Will post again Thursday, unless something comes up!

TEMPS - Just wanted to show you actual temps for the winter so far and the AVERAGE temps for same period of time! Orange line is Average, Actual temps in Blue....VERY INTERESTING!!!! SO...when you see Weather.com and they say we are ABOVE THE AVERAGE TEMPS, SHOW THEM THIS CHART!

**************SUNDAY EVENING UPDATE ON OUR STORM FOR TOMORROW************

*****PUTTING OUT AN ALERT FOR A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN, ICE PELLETS AND SNOW/SLEET FOR TOMORROW MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON******

*****ROADS WILL BECOME SLIPPERY, ICEY, NOT GOING TO BE A GOOD COMMUTE TOMORROW*******

********CALLING FOR MORE A WINTRY STORM FOR THE SUBURBS THEN MANY THINK...IMPORTANT**************

OK FOLKS, once again, as it seems with all of these storms this year, another hard forecast as the boundaries of precip types, amounts, etc. are EXTREMELY close yet again.

A weak low pressure system/overrunning system will continue to form in the Ohio valley tonight and move eastward with a swath of rain to the south and ice/sleet to all snow to the north. THIS IS NOT like the last storm where it took a northerly track over the lakes and was able to bring in all that warm air that brought the highs in to the 50's. This is also where we run into trouble with this storm. It is NOT bringing in much warm air if any at all, and therefore is dealing with whatever arctic air is left in the atmosphere as it moves through.

As usual, the forecast that Dillon and I made for this storm is more RISKY then the major weather sites and other people. But, this is what we feel will happen, and what my gut is saying. I will explain it all below.

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OVER THE PAST WEEK almost, our area has experienced record cold temperatures as all of you have known. In addition to this we have had a 2" layer of snow on the ground for a good portion of that time of extreme cold. SNOW refrigerates the air, and keeps it cooler, so for the past 4-5 days the snow on the ground has been refrigerating the air. Consequently, the forecast temps for our area have been MUCH warmer then the actual temps have gotten too. We have been averaging around 4° or more below the forecast temps, and this will factor into tomorrow's forecast.

As the system comes through the area, it will have ALOT of moisture to deal with, and the convection looks to be strong, especially up in the upper levels of the system where the air is perfect for snow.

SO, TO CONCLUDE, WHEN I SEE THE MAJOR SITES SAYING AN ICEY RAIN/SNOW MIX TO AN ALL RAIN EVENT..., AND THEN I LOOK AT THE RAW DATA - I SEE 2 COMPLETELY DIFFERENT SCENARIOS.....AND PERSONALLY, I TRUST THE RAW DATA (Which Dillon and I still have to interpret) ALOT BETTER!

Here is the forecast:

TONIGHT - Light snow/sleet will break out in the wee hours of the morning, temps steady in the High 20's/VERY LOW 30's. I would say the earliest time precip will be beginning is 6-7am. 
MONDAY - Light snow/sleet will transition rather quickly to a freezing rain. GUYS, the TEMPS aloft ARE REALLY COLD! AND THE TEMPS ON THE GROUND ARE ALSO REALLY COLD! IT IS THE TEMPS FROM THE SURFACE TO ABOUT 500-1000 FEET THAT ARE WARM ENOUGH FOR THE LIQUID TO MELT, AND THEN FREEZE ON CONTACT!!!! DANGOROUS STUFF! Freezing rain/ice pellets will transition to a period of rain in the middle of the day, but not for long and then BACK to a SNOW/RAIN MIX....GUYS, I AM BETTING ON MORE OF A SNOW then RAIN MIX here. Temps will RISE to the low to mid 30's by afternoon. Suburbs north of NYC...I DOUBT we will get above 34°. To the North and WEST expect HIGHS in the high 20's to very low 30's.
Map is attached to show the different precip types, accumulations.
TOTAL DAYTIME ACCUMULATIONS:
SNOW - .5-1", MAYBE 1-2" IF WE ARE LUCKY
ICE - 0.10"-.25" - GUYS THIS IS BAD, ICE BAD!!!
Storm will move out in the evening/night hours and COLD air will follow.

*********************SNOW DAY PREDICTION/OPINION FOR THOSE WHO CARE************

Personally, given the type of precipitation, and the timing of the ice (morning) and then the change to snow/rain - I DO THINK there SHOULD be a snowday. BUT THIS IS NOT! AGAIN NOT! MY DECISION! Just my opinion!

********************Dillon will UPDATE THIS TOMORROW BETWEEN 5-6AM********************************************************************

MONDAY NIGHT - STORM CLEARING OUT, TEMPS GOING DOWN TO LOW TO MID 20'S

TUESDAY - SUNNY, highs in the low to mid 20's

WEDNESDAY - Partly sunny chance of a few flurries in the morning, highs near 30°

MAPS BELOW.

*********UPDATE COMING AROUND 5-6AM TOMORROW*********