********FRIDAY NIGHT 6:45 PM UPDATE*********

FIRST OFF GUYS, The Rivertowns Enterprise was NICE ENOUGH to write an Article on Dillon and me, regarding our Weather pages and Science Research. If you get the Enterprise, PLEASE read the article! Just skip the forecast for this weekend, when we made it there was NO indication of a storm for tomorrow.

THANK YOU Enterprise, THANK you to all of you who support us! Continue to spread the word, and lets get these forecasts to more and more people!

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**********PLEASE READ THIS ALL, IT IS IMPORTANT - POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS STORM COMING***********

STORM for tomorrow - VERY TRICKY folks, but Dillon and me are VERY CONFIDENT with our forecast!

A clipper moving SE off of Lake Erie will transfer its energy to a developing coastal low which will then intensify greatly SE of Long Island and move NE of Nantucket tomorrow night before moving out Late Sunday night/Monday morning for New England.

When the Clipper transfers its energy, it will be doing so more or less over or just to the south of us...essentially the trough will be extended back and slow the system down a tad as it develops throwing back a bit more moisture over us then if this did not happen.

ONCE AGAIN, EASTERN LONG ISLAND, BOSTON, EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS, AND COASTAL MAINE - YOU GUYS ARE THE BIG WINNERS WITH THIS, HOWEVER, HOWEVER, NYC AND SUBURBS, WESTCHESTER, ETC...WE HAVE A CHANCE AT SOME REAL GOOD SNOW!

Here is the thing with this storm: We have FRIGID AIR IN PLACE. We will have winds 25mph with gusts to 40mph, especially in the coastal regions. We have PLENTY of snow on the ground, most of which is fluffy and not compacted down.

DILLON AND I BOTH KNOW THAT THERE IS NO WINTER STORM WARNING UP, BUT WE FEEL THERE SHOULD BE ONE FOR THE FOLLOWING REASONS:

1. Blizzard Conditions ARE POSSIBLE during the night tomorrow.
2. SNOW RATIOS WILL BE DOUBLED OR MORE, MEANING THE 1-3" ON THE WEATHER CHANNEL CAN EASILY BE 3-6" AND WILL MOST LIKELY BE 3-6"+
3. FRIGID TEMPERATURES
4. Snow WILL be heavy at times during the night

(Am I glad I will be in Jamaica?)

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ANOTHER Potent storm on the Horizon for Tuesday/Wednesday
More details later.

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TONIGHT - Not as cold as last night but still frigid! Highs in the high single digits to low teens, Windchills could still get negative. Clouds will start to roll in as well.

SATURDAY - Snow showers in the morning will evolve into a steadier light snow through the evening, becoming HEAVY at times during the night. Winds will be HIGH guys, 25mph sustained with gusts to 40mph or more. Blowing snow, and FRIGID temperatures will give to possible Blizzard Conditions. Snow will CONTINUE throughout the night and end EARLY Sunday morning. Temperatures in the mid teens to low 20's during the day, and FRIGID during the night as another arctic shot comes through, lows in the single digits and windchill values in the negatives. SNOW RATIOS THROUGH THE ROOF!

SUNDAY - Snow ending early, winds will still be up there, windchill values possibly in the negatives especially in the morning. Clearing out throughout the day, maybe some sun by afternoon.

MONDAY - FRIGIDIDDDD Morning in the single digits to negatives, warming up to balmy low teens maybe.

TUESDAY - Another possible storm? More later on this

*********************************

ARTICLE POSTED BELOW. 

********8:00PM UPDATE WEDNESDAY**********

Evening guys!!! Ok....weather changing ever day for us here in terms of whats on the models - so lets see whats going on!

- Clipper tomorrow will just be a glorified Arctic Cold front likely, as the low will pass to far to the North and it will be too dry. SO, as of now chance of snow showers and some light snow from midday through the evening and into the night possible. IF ANY accumulation, only a coating to an inch - but WILL likely be nothing big.

- Storm for the weekend still on the models, what has to be kept in mind is that it will be BRUTALLY COLD during that storm. SO, even if we only get the 3-5" that the models are saying - THAT COULD EASILY BE 6-12"+ WITH HIGHER SNOW RATIOS THAT COULD VERY WELL BE PRESENT. HOWEVER, AND A BIG HOWEVER, I am not making a forecast here for this storm as I am seeing some things on the models that are making me believe it will be a bit different - just keep in mind it could very well be a big bad storm.

- ANOTHER storm showing up on the models for Tuesday of next week...still early to really tell whats going on, but something is there.

- Another possible system after that later in the week still

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BRUTALLY cold temps coming Thursday and into the weekend AND BEYOND!! SERIOUS GUYS! COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON!

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TONIGHT - Clear lows in the low to mid teens.

THURSDAY - Highs around freezing, cloudy with snow showers possible and maybe some light snow, a coating to an inch if anything. Winds will be gusty as the Arctic front slams through in the afternoon. BRUTAL COLD AT NIGHT, LOWS IN THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS WIND CHILL IN THE NEGATIVES.

FRIDAY - Highs barely making it to the mid teens, windchill will be low too. Mostly sunny.

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HAVE A GREAT NIGHT FOLKS!

**********8PM Update Monday**********

Total snow for today was 2.9" - on the LOW side of our 2-5" Forecast, but still within that. Boston on the other hand, and areas around there - THEY are the winners. Approaching 6-7'+ of snow on the ground up there!!

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Rest of the night should start to clear out a bit, any light snow/sleet/ice will end by midnight. Temperatures will go down in the Highs teens/low 20's.

TOMORROW - Clouds will continue to clear out, Highs around freezing, WATCH for ice that may have formed overnight.

WEDNESDAY - Mostly Sunny, Highs in the High 20's to very low 30's.

THURSDAY - Next possible storm? Could evolve into a biggie, but for now 2-4" ish of snow late Thursday through Friday morning. Watch this carefully though because we could be in for a big storm.

Next storm after that would be for the weekend, and also could be a BIG one.

INTENSE, BRUTAL and coldest air of the season coming starting Thursday into the weekend. Highs could possibly barely reach the 20's, with lows well below 0°. We shall know specifics later, but seriously cold air coming.

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Have a great night guys!!!

*****5:45PM WINTER STORM UPDATE FOLKS ITS COMING FOR US!!!*****

Remy and I have been following the storm all day long, and we have a few minor changes in the forecast. Snowfall amounts, posted in the map below by Remy, are mostly the same as before, but what has changed for the WORSE is the ICE. SIGNIFICANT ICING is now likely in the lower and mid Hudson Valley, Northern New Jersey, and Southwestern Connecticut. Ice accretion in these areas will range from 1/4"-1/2", which is very dangerous for travel. North and south of the these areas, ice accretion will range from .10"-.25".

The storm, which up until the 18z run had was trending north, trended slightly south again on the last run, meaning slightly higher snow accumulations which will be reflected in the snow map. The storm, however, has also strengthened more than expected leading to an increase in the ice forecast
as well.

The heaviest of the snowfall will occur between 11PM and 5AM tonight, when snowfall rates may approach 2" per hour. Between 5AM and 8AM, the snow will mix with and/or change to sleet and freezing rain from south to north and continue until about 3PM when it will change back to light snow. TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS POSTED ON MAPS BELOW, SORRY FOLKS, SOUTH OF NYC THIS IS NOT YOUR STORM! - NEW ENGLAND - DOUBLE WHAMMY!!!!
Do not take this storm lightly folks. If you are going to a Super Bowl party tonight, try to be home before midnight.

IF ANYTHING CHANGES WE WILL PROVIDE UPDATES AS NEEDED. OTHERWISE, ENJOY THE SUPERBOWL AND STAY SAFE FOLKS!!!

**********FRIDAY NIGHT DISCUSSION - WINTER STORM AHEAD FOR SUPERBOWL FOLKS!**********

*******FAIRLY CONFIDENT IN A DECENT WINTER STORM, ALL SNOW FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT******
HOW MUCH SNOW? WELL HERE IS THE TRICKY PART! IT IS GOING TO BE BRUTALLY COLD FOLKS, AND THIS STORM IS GONNA BE EVEN COLDER. DO NOT BE SURPRISED IF 15-20:1 RATIOS OF SNOW ARE PRESENT. FOR NOW, I WILL STICK WITH 10:1 RATIOS - BUT AN AVERAGE OF THE MODELS WOULD BE 
8-12", A MAX WOULD BE 12-15" AND A MINIMUM 4".

HINTING - WITH HIGHER RATIOS WE COULD BE LOOKING AT
PROBABLE 12-15", MAX 18-24"(BUT I THINK THATS A FAR STRETCH).

A storm will move across the Midwest tonight into tomorrow and form a slightly stronger low as it comes out of the Ohio Valley. FOLKS, TRACK AS ALWAYS IS VERY IMPORTANT! A MOVE SOUTH 50 MILES WOULD CUT OUR SNOW IN HALF, A MOVE NORTH 50 MILES COULD MIX SOME YOU-KNOW WHAT IN!!!! 

WE ALL KNOW HOW THE MODELS ARE...SINCE THE LAST STORM.

Pictures are worth a thousand words so PLEASE LOOK AT THEM FOR MORE INFORMATION ON THE STORM!

TIMING, AS OF NOW, WOULD BE MID SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...SO RIGHT AS SUPERBOWL PARTIES ENDING!

OTHER NEWS: BRUTAL, I MEAN BRUTAL COLD COMING TONIGHT WITH BRUTAL WINDCHILLS FAR INTO THE NEGATIVES. PLEASE BE CAREFUL FOLKS!

****************FORECAST*******************

TONIGHT - COLD COLD FRIGID. Lows in the NEGATIVES, -15 to -20° BELOW with the WINDCHILLS, Otherwise Around 1° PROGRESSIVELY COLDER AS YOU GET NORTH AND WEST. WINDS 20-30MPH GUSTS TO 35MPH

TOMORROW - COLD! Highs in the LOW 20's, MORNING HIGHS IN THE NEGATIVES! ENJOY THE SUNNINESS - WONT LAST FOR LONG!

SUNDAY - Increasing Clouds as the day goes on Highs in the LOW 30's around 30-32° Getting COLDER as the day goes on probably, SNOW arriving LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AROUND MIDNIGHT OR SO...MAYBE EARLIER FINAL DETAILS TOMORROW.

MONDAY - Snow Continuing throughout the day is probable. Highs in the low 20's probable.

FIRST CALL MAPS BELOW FOR SUNDAY STORM

TEMPERATURE MAPS AS WELL - LOOK AT THAT COLD!!!!!!

WINDY TOO FOLKS!

**********THURSDAY EVENING UPDATIO**********

A nice and healthy clipper will start to move in tonight spreading Light snow in the area bringing an inch to two inches for us, while areas to the North and NE will get slightly more, 3-4" on top of some areas who got 30"+ from the Blizzard. Redevelopment/Intensification of the low as it hits the Water in the Gulf of Maine will throw some precip back into New England giving Areas just north of Boston (Gloucester/Amsebury area) a good extra 2-3" on top of the 3" from the initial snow of the clipper tomorrow and into tomorrow night. MAINE People - watch out another 6-12" or more coming your way as the low redevelops and forms a closed loop, the negative trough will bring a good amount of Atlantic Moisture up into the area and fuel the snow.

****UPDATED SNOW MAP BELOW FOR THE CLIPPER***

Sunday to Monday night STORM STILL WAFFLING ON THE MODELS....So no definitive ideas yet. The models HAVE been trending with a more southerly track putting Places north of NYC on the edge of snowfall, 3-6"....STILL TO EARLY TO MAKE DEFINITIVE FORECAST THOUGH FOLKS, SO DO NOT WORRY YET.

Another System on the Horizon for next Thursday. Still unclear what will happen with it, so no worries.

************FORECAST**************

TONIGHT - COLDD, in the low to mid teens, maybe low 20's along the coast. Clipper arrives in a few hours, light snow/snow showers, another burst around daybreak possible so watch for rush hour tomorrow. SEE SNOW MAP.

TOMORROW - Some lingering light snow/snow showers in the morning tapering off and skies become partly cloudy to sunny Highs in the mid 20's - COLD SHOT TOMORROW NIGHT, GUYS BRUTAL BRUTAL COLD!!!

SATURDAY - Highs in the low to mid 20's, Sunny, brisk wind in the morning probably will die as the day goes on. 

THANKS AGAIN TO WEATHERBELL AND RYAN FOR LETTING US UTILIZE THESE AMAZING MODELS!

*********WEDNESDAY EVENING WEATHER UPDATE**********

As Always, THANKS for following the page/blog and supporting us. Be sure to spread the word about us!!!

EASTERN NEW ENGLAND AND LONG ISLAND DIGGING OUT FROM THE "EPIC" STORM...REPORTS FROM 20" TO OVER 36" IN SOME PLACES. MORE SNOW ON THE WAY FOR SOME OF THEM TOO!
NOW, onto the weather!! We have a couple of key events heading our way...first one tomorrow night!!!

- First event - a clipper will pass to the North, a general Coating to an INCH, MAYBE 2" FOR NOW, but I am watching this closely as we could end up with a situation similar to a couple weeks ago with that clipper on the Friday morning when schools should have had a delay.....if you remember! AREAS TO THE NORTH EAST, Boston, Mass, CT, 3-6" IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS CLIPPER. MAINE - BOY YOU GOT WINTER STORM WARNINGS UP ALREADY, 6+" ON THE WAY!

- SECOND event, BIGGER, as of now for SUNDAY - MONDAY. We will have a storm developing in the West that will move East and either pass to the North OR south of us - right now, to the south, but the models are waffling around so we shall have to wait a few days before going to specifics. TRACK will be important as this could be rain or snow or mix or rain to snow, vise versa.

- THIRD EVENT, FAR OUT, but a POSSIBLE storm coming up next Thursday ish. All I am gonna say right now.

COLD WILL CONTINUE TO GRIP THE NORTHEAST, HIGHS ON AVERAGE 2-6° BELOW AVERAGE, WITH SOME SHOTS OF MUCH COLDER AIR IN BETWEEN AT LEAST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF WEEKS. 

A VERY ACTIVE PATTERN, SO KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR UPDATES FROM DILLON AND I.

*********FORECAST**********

TONIGHT - FRIGID in the single digits, wind chills MAY and very well COULD reach into the Negatives, any clouds should move out - but not for long.

THURSDAY - Highs right around 30° or less, especially as you get N/NW of NYC. Coastal areas a bit warmer as wind from the NE dies down a bit. Light Snow/Snow showers developing during the night, a coating to an inch maybe 2" for now - will know more tomorrow and will update y'all accordingly. SNOW MAP BELOW.

FRIDAY - Morning snowshowers/light snow will lead to partly cloudy maybe sunny skies in the afternoon, Highs in the LOW 30'S, again progressively colder as you get North and West of NYC. 

SATURDAY - COLDER, Highs in the LOW 20's. Sunny.

Snow map below for the CLIPPER, PLUS a map of snow totals from the blizzard. You can see who got the gold!

*******BLIZZARD ANALYSIS - WHAT WENT WRONG, WHAT WE COULD DO BETTER**********

******OK SINCE I GOT SOME REQUESTS FOR AN ANALYSIS OF THE STORM HERE IT IS FOR ANYBODY WHO WANTS TO UNDERSTAND WHAT HAPPENED. IF YOU ARE CONFUSED JUST ASK*******

FIRST OFF - I am seeing some articles saying that favoring one model was the main reason for this forecast bust. Sorry folks, but there were other reasons, outlined below that EVERYBODY missed - not just the models. We cannot blame computers for everything!

STORM HISTORY: The Storm formed further to the SW than originally thought and what was shown on the models, just to the east of South Carolina and with a more negative tilted trough axis. I think this led many to believe (including Dillon and I) that this would cause it to hug the coast more as it came up and then deepen and strengthen a bit sooner so that by the time it got up to LI it would stall and send those strong snows for a longer period of time. We should have seen this a bit on the Euro, as it hinted in the 12z model run on Monday that there would be a 30+" band over NYC through Central CT. If the storm had gone according to plan this would have been quite possible. 
The storm Storm moved East of Hatteras, NC but further West then models saw and that is when got those initial bands of heavy snow in the afternoon over LI and Southern CT and Westchester, part of NJ and PA as the clipper finished transferring its energy over to the developing storm. 
The storm moved up as planned, stalled as planned blah blah. 

So where did we get caught?

WHAT HAPPENED - First off, the Boundary between the Arctic air bleeding off the HP and the warmer air boundary was where it should have been the whole time, as shown on the models and upper air progs/surface maps and satellite, and the storm DID form along it as it should have. This made me believe even more it would follow a more westerly track as that’s where it would form and the Boundary was over NY. 
Once the storm got SE of LI though I noticed on the upper air progs we ran into trouble. All the models I think (that were printing out 24+” snow) were assuming this storm would:

(1) close off the trough at 700mb and then that would enable the heaviest snows to be focus N/NW of the low track (hence why I thought those bands S of Boston would move West) This storm SHOULD HAVE this by 6-8pm in order for anybody WEST of NY/CT Border to get the big snows. 

(2) The trough at 500mb did not close nearly in time, which should have been after midnight so that the storm would slow down and stall more throwing back more snow. It EVENTUALLY did this Early Tuesday morning (When we got that band of snow this morning).

(3) The trough (dip in the jet stream) was SO inverted even when it got up here that it allowed a ton of air to sink over into it over PA and around me over NY/CT border. This PROBABLY contributed to the precipitation being “dried” out of the storm on the WESTERN SIDE of the Precipitation shield as all this air rose and then had to sink elsewhere. If anybody was watching the radar at the time, it looked like a wall of snow JUST to the east of NYC and it was barely moving west, or looked like it was being eaten/squished up East of the Hudson.

(4) The rising warmer air and the sinking colder air around us PROBABLY contributed to more condensation which led to more latent heat and then the clouds just keep on floating up like balloons. (Clouds warmer then air around them) 

SO TO SUM IT ALL UP: The precipitation shield was just being eaten away as it came farther west, and then that combined with the sudden track trend east at like 2am led to the precipitation being lost over us. The low became to progressive and then got captured too late for us folks east of CT. Looks like NYC got a decent band late at night, and LI just kept getting pounded as the ocean probably helped with setting up those extreme bands of snow. In fact, another thing interested about the inverted trough – usually don’t see that sort of mesoscale extreme weather in winter…but hey Mother Nature does what mother nature wants. 

WHAT COULD WE HAVE DONE BETTER: 

1 - In the future, we will now look at, in much more detail the realtime data, IE Radar, Satellite, Water Vapor loops and upper air progs so that we can see what the storm is actually doing instead of what the model wants it to do.

2 - Do not lean towards/favor one model - pay more attention to trends on other models and combine them into our forecasts.

3- Look for the tiniest details, because they can be the biggest game changers!

This storm was always "TOO GOOD" to be true. It is amazing how PERFECTLY the variables have to add up to get a storm like this. One little thing can change everything.

HAVE A GOOD NIGHT FOLKS, THANKS FOR LISTENING, AND IF YOU HAVE ANY QUESTIONS - ASK!

*********2PM UPDATE - OR SHOULD I SAY APOLOGY?************

Obviously at this point in the day the storm is moving out, and many of you are probably wondering what happened. There is not much more for me to add from what Dillon posted, but I do want to explain something:

When you have multiple models, and one of them being the one that is most widely trusted and regarded as the best telling you that a massive storm will affect your area and drop 20+" for 3 or 4 CONSECUTIVE days (6-8 models runs or more) then generally that plays out as it said it would. But it must be understood that Mother nature will do what she does. This storm formed further SW then the models predicted, and had a more negative tilt. The Arctic Air boundary, which it was forming along was also fairly west over NY. These observations on the radar and satellite led many to believe that it would continue to be a bit further west then the models had, and stay around longer with the more negative tilt. It was still further west then expected with OUR LAST update Last night @ 10:20pm. So why suddenly after 2am did it shift east? This is not known, at least to me yet...but I will be finding out. EVEN when the 0z Euro model came out at 1:30am...it had us still getting 12-18". 

This does not mean however that Dillon, me, or any other meteorologists forecast for 20+" NYC and North was right and should not take blame. It was wrong. We understand that. Busts happen though, and we cannot control that. Dillon and I spent 18+ hours (you can check the phone log) on the phone in the last 4 days talking about the storm and our forecasts, all the different ways it could go, amounts, etc...everything was used to make the forecast, plus 2 hours of research and writing each post...but hey what can you do. 

SO, We are sorry for any inconvenience this may have caused. We hope you continue to view our page for Weather forecasts/updates.

If anybody continues to have questions as to why this happened, then email me, or private message me. 

FOR THOSE OF YOU EAST OF THE CT RIVER, and on Long Island - WELL LUCKY YOU, because you are the big winners with this storm. 

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NOW, onto the next few day/week.

TODAY - MAYBE a few stray snow here and there otherwise snow ending and clouds clearing out late, still a bit windy steady in mid to low 20's.

WEDNESDAY - Partly cloudy becoming mostly sunny highs in the high 20's still a bit windy.

THURSDAY - Partly cloudy Highs steady around 30°, clouds arriving at night, maybe some light snow during the night as we have a possible clipper coming by.

FRIDAY - Maybe some snow in the morning with a passing clipper, otherwise Cloudy highs in the low 30's.

We have a possible event for Next Sunday into Monday. We will not start coverage on this until Friday at the earliest most likely. 

*****10:20PM UPDATE FOLKS...I HATE TO DO THIS...BUT I GOTTA*****

Latest Data coming in, plus my own observation of the radar returns are leading me to believe that 20"+ Is going to be hard to come by, unless we can REALLY ramp up the snow in the next 12-24 hours. 

SO, WE ARE ISSUING A NEW SNOW MAP, ***BUT NOTE THE OLD ONE IS STILL IN THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES, DO NOT DISCOUNT IT*****. I ISSUE THIS WITH EXTREME CAUTION - IT WOULD NOT TAKE MUCH AT ALL FOR US TO GET IN THE ZONE OF 18-24+", BUT AT THIS POINT IN TIME, I THINK WE WILL JUST MISS THAT ZONE BY A TAD.

REMEMBER AS WELL, THIS STORM WAS NEVER SUPPOSED TO REACH ITS POTENTIAL UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT - SO WE STILL HAVE TIME. GIVE THIS MONSTER TIME.
COULD I BE WRONG? OF COURSE. BUT HEY, YOU GOTTA BE WRONG SOMETIMES...AND THIS IS A VERY TOUGH SCIENCE. FOR ALL WE KNOW, THE EURO COULD BE RIGHT, AND WE COULD END UP WITH 20" TOMORROW...BUT MY GUT IS TELLING ME DIFFERENTLY, FOR NOW AT LEAST.

NOT LOWERING TOTALS A TON, BUT ENOUGH.
IF DILLON AND I FEEL THIS NEEDS TO CHANGE TOMORROW MORNING, THEN WE WILL CHANGE IT.

You have to realize, that we can do ALL the forecasting we want, but nothing will be the observations and NOWCASTS. Do not take this as A CONCRETE THING, BUT MORE OF A GUIDE. Weather Models are guides, that we use to interpret and Observations of Radar/Satellite, etc. are the concrete things.

BLIZZARD WARNINGS STILL IN EFFECT, WINDS WILL STILL GET UP THERE. PLEASE BE CAREFUL, AND AGAIN THANKS FOR YOUR SUPPORT!

*********7:30 PM UPDATE**********

SORRY A TAD LATE! 
ANYWAY!

AGAIN, THANK YOU TO ALL OF YOU WHO SUPPORT US!

IN CASE YOU DID NOT SEE THE ARTICLE:
http://www.lohud.com/story/news/2015/01/26/armchair-meteorologists/22350937/

SO....WHATS GOING ON WITH THE STORM!? ITS RIGHT ON TRACK FOLKS! DILLON AND I, WHILE EXCITED AND NERVOUS, ARE CONFIDENT WITH THE FORECAST. WE WILL NOT BE ISSUING A NEW SNOW MAP, AS WE FEEL THE ONE ALREADY POSTED WILL DO JUST FINE.

SO! The Storm actually began to form a BIT further South and West then anticipated, so the HEAVY precip MAY take a BIT longer to arrive!...BUT THIS IS GOOD! The Severly NEGATIVE TILT of this means It should NOT go further East then expected, and will stick around for a bit longer as well. Once the storm bombs out it will stall SE of Long island, again as expected.

HEAVIEST SNOWS STILL LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW AFTERNOON FOLKS.

THE WHOLE THING SHOULD BE OUTTA HERE LATE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.

BLIZZARD CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW.

BE BACK LATER!

**********VERY IMPORTANT 5:30 AM UPDATE**********

Last night some of the models had Remy and I VERY CONCERNED that the storm was going to be further offshore and therefore we would receive a much reduced amount of snow. However, the European model, which is highly trusted among many meteorologists, has been consistent in its last four runs printing 24"+ across the area. Additionally, the model runs that were portraying a faster and more offshore system have since returned to something closer to that of the European model. 

With that being said, we will NOT make any changes as of now to our current snowfall map as we still believe everything is in place for a MAJOR blizzard. Those of you under the 18-24" range (lower Hudson Valley, NE New Jersey, Long Island, and coastal New England) should be on guard for blizzard-like conditions beginning late Monday night and continuing through the early afternoon on Tuesday. Additionally, mesoscale banding (essentially VERY heavy bands of snow) will set up somewhere across the aforementioned area, creating a "sweet spot" for snowfall (30 INCHES PLUS)... however, predicting exactly where these bands will form is nearly impossible this far in advance.

The timing of the storm has also remained the same. During the day on Monday, most areas can expect between 1-3" of snow before nightfall as the clipper arrives. Come this evening, the snow will pick up in intensity as the storm stalls and strengthens off the New Jersey coast. We are highlighting the time period from LATE MONDAY EVENING THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON as the period of the heaviest snowfall. Snowfall rates could approach FOUR INCHES PER HOUR. Tuesday evening the storm should begin to wind down with little additional accumulation. For total accumulations in your area, refer to the map below. Then it gets COLD.

Folks, this is a VERY dangerous storm. If you do not have to travel, DON'T. At the height of the storm, some roads will likely be IMPASSABLE and power outages are very possible. Make sure you are prepared with food, water, flashlights, batteries, and plenty of warm clothing/blankets. This storm will most likely go down in the record books.

******IMPORTANT SMALL UPDATE FOLKS*******

*****PLEASE READ
EVEN THOUGH THE BULK OF THE SNOW IS NOT TOMORROW DAYTIME, THE 1-3" FOR TOMORROW COULD EASILY BECOME 2-4" OR MORE AS THE EXTREMELY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL LEAD TO MUCH HIGHER SNOW RATIOS - SO TRAVELLING PEEPS BE CAREFUL. BE CAREFUL GETTING TO AND FROM SCHOOL!

FELLOW CLASSMATES, MAKE SURE YOU GOT RIDES TO AND FROM SCHOOL IF NOT TAKING THE BUS ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON!

*******FIRST SNOW MAP CALL FOR STORM TOMORROW BASED OFF OF THE Euro, GFS, NAM, NAM 4KM WRF, UKMET, AND CANADIAN MODELS********* 3PM UPDATE

OK, I am going to Explain this map - as some things are hard to draw in!

Areas in red I think will generally get the most out of this storm, as the bulls eye's are here on most of the models. HOWEVER, WE WILL NOT KNOW THIS FOR SURE UNTIL IT HAPPENS AND WE CAN SEE THE BANDING BEING SET UP. Models have a tough time with banding. the STARS indicate chances for localized amounts upwards of 30" possible.

THE REASON, I do not extend the red all the way to the MA Coast and Nantucket is that I see a SLIGHT chance of some mixing as the low swings past, bringing temperatures aloft to 1-2°C...However, this is a very tough call...they may very well end up with more.

Areas in Orange, So Around Poughkeepsie to Hudson/Albany and then West through Northern NJ and PA, East to just West of Boston, I am pretty solid on 14-18" with Localized Higher amounts.

Areas in Purple, and I include Boston in this, but they very well might end up with higher amounts, 10-14" with higher elevation areas receiving more.

AREAS NORTH OF ALBANY, to the NW 6-10"...this is starting to get to the outer edges of the storm IN BLUE

North WEST and NoRTH OF THAT, Central NY to Northern VT/NH...Sorry buds, Likely 1-4, 3-6" or around there.

ANY QUESTIONS, JUST PM ME. FULL UPDATE THIS EVENING.
NOTHING ELSE CHANGING! 

*******MIDDAY UPDATE FOLKS - THIS IS GOING TO BE A BIG ONE-*******

BRIEF UPDATE NOW, BIGGER ONE WITH 12Z EURO, AND FULL ONE THIS EVENING ONCE ALL MODELS OUT.

***I WOULD START MAKING SURE YOU HAVE GAS, FOOD, WATER, A GENERATOR THAT WORKS (IF YOU HAVE ONE ALREADY), GAS FOR SNOWBLOWERS, SALT, SHOVELS....ALL HANDS ON DECK??-****

First snow map will go out with the 12z Euro, but JUST to give you an idea, Amounts of 1-2' with Localized amounts maybe up to 3' in DRIFTS from Central Jersey through to Boston and Southern New England.

BLIZZARD WATCHES/WARNINGS ARE UP! FOLKS THIS MEANS WINDS OF 3-40MPH GUSTS TO 50MPH OR MORE!

TIMING - Light snow will arrive Monday 1AM, MEANING TONIGHT! Lasting through tomorrow afternoon, 1-3" most likely, then a LULL in the precipitation, then light snow turning to heavy snow Monday night, 8-12", HEAVIEST snow Tuesday morning through afternoon an addition 8-12" OR MORE will not be UNEXPECTED OR UNCOMMON I THINK! BLIZZARD CONDITIONS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

MORE UPDATES COMING IN AN HOUR!

*******HOLY MOTHER OF GOODDDDD******

ALL I GOTTA SAY - IS WOW!

OK FOLKS Here is the deal - LATEST EURO Models just came in, and Right or wrong on the specific snow amounts - THERE WILL BE SOME SORT OF MAJOR MAJOR SNOW STORM/BLIZZARD Monday Night into Wednesday EARLY morning, spreading HUGE snow accumulations.

DO I want to jump the gun? NO, but I do feel that this is more or less set in stone - that is the event.

SPECIFIC snow totals we will get too later.

ALL of us Highschoolers with Midterms - well I frankly do not know what they do, if we miss school, but - extra studying time!

Right now we have 4 of the MAJOR models agreeing on a WIDESPREAD MASSIVE STORM WITH POSSIBLE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS.

MORE LATER!!!

********MIDDAY SATURDAY UPDATE************

VERY HAPPY TODAY AS I THINK I NAILED THAT FORECAST IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION TYPES AND AMOUNTS, TOTAL SNOWFALL HERE AT MY HOUSE WAS 6.8" IN THE DRIVEWAY NO DRIFTS AWAY FROM TREES... SO RIGHT IN THE 4-8/5-8" THAT I POSTED LAST NIGHT.

NOW...WHATS NEXT!

WELL, TEMPERATURES WILL STAY STEADY IN THE LOW 30'S TODAY, AND AS THE LOW DEEPENS A BIT MORE WE WILL GET ANOTHER LIGHT BOUT OF SNOW/RAIN/SLEET THIS AFTERNOON. - ACCUMULATIONS? PROBABLY LESS THEN AN INCH.

ARCTIC AIR WILL COME IN TOMORROW NIGHT, AND WITH IT A CLIPPER - NOW, THIS CLIPPER RIGHT NOW IS SHOWING UP ON THE MODELS TURNING INTO QUITE A STORM!...IS THIS GOING TO HAPPEN? WELL, 48 HOURS OUT THINGS CAN STILL CHANGE, BUT I AM VERY CONFIDENT WE WILL GET SOME SORT OF SNOW STORM MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

THIS TIME, NO QUESTION ABOUT RAIN/SNOW AS THE STORM WILL HAVE PLENTY OF ARCTIC AIR, AND WILL HAVE DYNAMIC COOLING AS IT DEEPENS.

SHOULD I SAY BLIZZARD? HINT HINT....

ANYWAY MORE DETAILS LATER.

HAVE A GREAT DAY FOLKS AND BE SAFE!