Wednesday Evening Weather Update - Winter Storm coming!

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Updated: 0117z/21:17/09:17PM

----------------------------------FORECAST----------------------------------

TONIGHT - Lows in the low teens, clear, guys the clear spots and brisk wind will keep things nice n crisp and cold tonight!

THURSDAY - Highs in the low to mid 30's MAYBE just maybe up to 40° for some, clear and less windy.

FRIDAY - Cloudy temperatures in the low 30's, snow beginning between 1 and 3pm as of now as the storm approaches, snow will probably have a bit of a hard time sticking at first. Snow continuing through the afternoon into the night.

SATURDAY - Any snow will have ended overnight, total accumulations on the map below. Temperatures in the low to mid 40's.

--------------------------FORECAST DISCUSSION------------------------

A disturbance in the plains will continue to drop rain over the southern Plains and Southeast tonight and tomorrow, and at the same time NRG will drop down from Canada, developing our storm in the Carolina's region Thursday night into Friday. WHERE this NRG hooks up with our developing storm will dictate the exact track and whether or not it is able to make the left turn up the Coast and closer to us. FOR NOW, THOUGH this storm should make it to the Lower Hudson Valley, as it will likely interact with a very strong upper low feature around Hudson Bay...Now, that being said we will have to watch how much moisture makes it up into the area and how close to the coast the coastal low forms. Some of the models have it "reforming" into a nice and more powerful low off the LI coast, which would throw precip back. IN ANY CASE, the low is a CLOSED LOOP low, meaning most of the Precip will be N/NW of the track of the low. Right now this is just to the south of us - it would not take much for it to come a bit north.
Snow will be heavy, as the temperatures are marginally cold enough to support snow. Timing is Friday afternoon through late Friday night for all points east of NYC.

FIRST CALL MAP BELOW.

Longer range outlook, still looking to stay well below average temperatures for the next several weeks, and plenty of storm options. Whether or not they are rain or snow or both is still to be decided, but definitely storms on the horizon.

Dillon and I will be posting a winter Recap in the next few days and then in a couple weeks our spring outlook.

hAVE A GREAT NIGHT!

Monday Evening Weather Update

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Updated: 0105z/21:05/09:05PM

------------------------------------FORECAST--------------------------------

TONIGHT - Lows in the upper 30's to low 40°, cloudy with a few spotty showers after midnight as a vigorous cold front begins to move through.

TUESDAY - Warmer ahead of the cold front highs near 50° maybe a spotty shower or two, THEN as the cold front comes through - could we be looking at some snow showers or a snow squall? MAYBE...its a very vigurous change in the atmosphere. 

WEDNESDAY - Windy behind the cold front, pressure gradient very big as a wave develops offshore and High pressure settles over us. Cold too highs in mid 30's. Typical of mid to late January.

THURSDAY - Highs near 40° Mostly sunny.

--------------------------FORECAST DISCUSSION------------------------

FUN FACT: Some Places in Northern Kansas and Nebraska reached into the 80's and 90's today! Will we ever reach that? Well at least not for the next month!

A vigorous cold front will move through late tonight into tomorrow afternoon, with a small wave developing off of it. Some rain showers and some possible snow showers on and off then as the wave deepens offshore, winds will kick up from the pressure gradient.

NOW, I know A LOT of you will hate to hear this - but yes, snow is in the realms of possibility, big possibility for Friday into Saturday. Timing, precipitation, amounts, all that stuff is still to be decided. BUT, all signs are pointing to the possibility of a nice big storm. 

The NAO and AO will go negative, as will the EPO while the WPO will be near nuetral and the PNA positive. THIS IS EXACTLY WHAT WE WANT FOR A BIG STORM! Blocking should set up over Greenland, and that will help slow down the storm coming. Now the track will be very dependent as that will decide the precip type and amounts for us. Right now we want it a bit north to give us heavier snow. 

?????????P.S. - JUST A HINT, OR OBSERVATION, BUT Comparing the data for this potential storm, to that of the March 1993 Blizzard - they are looking very similar. ??????

HAVE A GREAT NIGHT GUYS!

********WEDNESDAY EVENING 8:30PM UPDATE**********

Sorry about no update last night, Dillon and me were both very busy, and we did not feel there was enough to make a meaningful post. Its been a quiet week!

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Feels warm past couple of days right! SLOWLY, ever so slowly we are trending (barely noticeable) back to "average" temperatures...Now the question is will we get back to Average or ABOVE average? At least in the next 2 weeks - We doubt it. Maybe a few small warm ups here and there for a couple hours...but overall models trending Below to WELL below average for the next several days, into the 2-3 week margin...maybe even through the next 45 days?

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Many storms on the horizon, first big one would be Sunday to maybe Tuesday, likely Sunday night - Monday night. Right now Rain/ice to snow maybe back to rain or all snow...many details to workout too early too say much.

Tomorrow morning chance of light snow and some snow showers as a system passes to the south. Little to no accumulation for us.

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TONIGHT - Lows near 10° progressively colder North and NW of NYC. Clear but becoming cloudy as the night goes on.

THURSDAY - Possible Light snow/snow showers (Most likely some flurries - BUT) No accumulations likely. Highs in the low to mid 20's.

FRIDAY - Highs in the mid 20's, some sun some clouds.

SATURDAY - Sunny highs near 30°, overall a pleasant day smile emoticon

HAVE A GREAT NIGHT GUYS!

********MONDAY NIGHT 7:30 PM UPDATE**********

I hope your vacations were great! I know I had a fabulous time in Jamaica! AND, Dillon and I ARE VERY HAPPY with our forecast for the weekend storm - WE KNEW it would be colder and snowier...fell right on target with what we said it would do!

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Absolutely the COLDEST air of the season (This time I am pretty sure it WILL be the coldest!) coming tonight into tomorrow - tonight's lows WILL LIKELY be in the NEGATIVES for almost everybody in New England/NE north of NYC. 

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Right now looking like we have dodged 2 possible snowstorms for this week, although there is still a possibility of them coming back west on the models - WE shall wait and see!

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Snow showers/Light snow possible Thursday night??? It is a possibility!

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BRIEF warmup next Monday? We could get up to 40 or above for a couple hours! ;) then back to cold! A possible storm as well in that time period early next week.

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TONIGHT - Frigid from -3° here in Irvington to possibly below -10° in parts of Western NY and New England. Clear.

TUESDAY - 7am Temps COULD BE -15° WITHOUT THE WINDCHILL! Then it will warm up to the balmy low to mid teens IF THAT MUCH. 

WEDNESDAY - Highs in the mid to upper 20's maybe a passing snow shower in the afternoon. Otherwise Partly cloudy/sunny.

THURSDAY - Chance of light snow/snow showers in the morning through afternoon and evening maybe into the night...Little or no accumulation at this point, Highs near 20°.

HAVE A GREAT NIGHT GUYS!

********6PM THURSDAY UPDATE********

BRUTAL, BRUTAL COLD COMING GUYS!! Highs tonight JUST ABOVE 0°, and around 5-10° in the City, plus winds gusting UP to 40mph will yield to windchills from -10 to -30°...LIKELY, real feel temps will stay around -15° TONIGHT, AND into TOMORROW as temperatures tomorrow BARELY get up to 15°, windchill's staying in the negatives.

GUYS, this means Frostbite in UNDER 5 minutes...KEEP JACKETS ON, KEEP GLOVES ON, BUNDLE UP IT WILL BE FREEZZZING!!!!

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WINTER STORM Coming for Saturday Afternoon through to Sunday Morning. The STORM, PLUS WIND, PLUS THE FRIGID TEMPS WILL GIVE A DANGEROUS SITUATION, WITH POSSIBLE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS DURING THE NIGHT, ESPECIALLY Out on Eastern Long Island, and Massachusetts, Boston, up through coastal Maine.

YES BOSTON...Another foot of snow heading your way!

GUYS, even with low(er) amounts of snow near NYC, the FRIGID temperatures will lead to 20:1 or more snow ratios...meaning the normal 3-5" becomes 6-10"+...THIS will EASILY Occur I believe.

Models have been trending a bit further SW today, and bringing the heaviest snows a bit closer...lets see if this continues, if not, an EARLY, GUYS EARLY, Estimate at snow amounts for NYC Metro area and Northern Suburbs is 3-6", which could EASILY become 6-12" with higher ratios if they hold.

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ANOTHER, More potent storm potentially coming for Tuesday, still early to tell specifics

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TONIGHT - FRIGID lows near 0°, windchills -10 to -30° even down to -40° as you get NW of NYC. Clearing out

FRIDAY - FRIGID, BRUTALLY COLD, Highs barely reaching 15°, Windchill factor well below 0°. Clear skies, windy 10-20mph

SATURDAY - Highs in the mid to high 20's maybe making it to 30°. Light snow developing in the afternoon and continuing heavier at night. Temps during the night getting colder to near 0° as another arctic blast comes through.

SUNDAY - Light snow in the morning ending likely, Highs FREEZING in the single digits to low teens. Cloudy and clearing up probably.

***GUYS, NOTE THAT THE FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND IS NOT FINAL AS THERE ARE STILL DETAILS TO BE WORKED OUT FOR THE STORM.***

********8:00PM UPDATE WEDNESDAY**********

Evening guys!!! Ok....weather changing ever day for us here in terms of whats on the models - so lets see whats going on!

- Clipper tomorrow will just be a glorified Arctic Cold front likely, as the low will pass to far to the North and it will be too dry. SO, as of now chance of snow showers and some light snow from midday through the evening and into the night possible. IF ANY accumulation, only a coating to an inch - but WILL likely be nothing big.

- Storm for the weekend still on the models, what has to be kept in mind is that it will be BRUTALLY COLD during that storm. SO, even if we only get the 3-5" that the models are saying - THAT COULD EASILY BE 6-12"+ WITH HIGHER SNOW RATIOS THAT COULD VERY WELL BE PRESENT. HOWEVER, AND A BIG HOWEVER, I am not making a forecast here for this storm as I am seeing some things on the models that are making me believe it will be a bit different - just keep in mind it could very well be a big bad storm.

- ANOTHER storm showing up on the models for Tuesday of next week...still early to really tell whats going on, but something is there.

- Another possible system after that later in the week still

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BRUTALLY cold temps coming Thursday and into the weekend AND BEYOND!! SERIOUS GUYS! COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON!

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TONIGHT - Clear lows in the low to mid teens.

THURSDAY - Highs around freezing, cloudy with snow showers possible and maybe some light snow, a coating to an inch if anything. Winds will be gusty as the Arctic front slams through in the afternoon. BRUTAL COLD AT NIGHT, LOWS IN THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS WIND CHILL IN THE NEGATIVES.

FRIDAY - Highs barely making it to the mid teens, windchill will be low too. Mostly sunny.

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HAVE A GREAT NIGHT FOLKS!

**************9:00PM UPDATE TUESDAY NIGHT*************

SO...We got several events coming up! First one for Thursday, Likely will form too far to the East for anybody to get anything of big significance. Right now likely 1-3" Thursday afternoon through Friday Morning. WE WILL Keep you posted if this changes. First snow map tomorrow night for the event.

Second event for the weekend - still far out so nothing definite, but the models are definitely showing something forming that COULD be QUITE BIG if it forms right. Picture below showing it.

Third event would be Early to middle of Next week during our vacation. Still to early to tell anything more with confidence.

Fourth event would be later in the week after the third event. Again still early to say ANYTHING with confidence - for all we know it could not even happen.

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EXTREME, AND I DO MEAN EXTREME COLD COMING FOLKS...Just to give you an idea - the models depicting temperature ANOMOLIES (So +/- of average) are saying on average the next 16 days and if not more will be -3 to -16° BELOW average!!! OR MORE!!

FIRST SHOT OF THE COLDEST AIR will be Thursday through the weekend. Folks, Lows in the negatives are possible and Highs in the single digits to low teens....get ready for the cold!!!

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TONIGHT - Cold and clear Highs in the low to mid teens, maybe 20° in NYC progressively colder as you get up to Boston and N/NW of NYC.

WEDNESDAY - Colder then today, Highs in the High 20's maybe low 30's, sunny.

THURSDAY - Mostly cloudy with light snow developing in the afternoon, Highs probably right below freezing. Snow will continue on and off through the night, most likely 1-3" with localized 2-4" possible.

FRIDAY - Maybe some light snow in the morning, then clearing out, COLLLDDD first SHOT of BRUTAL COLD AIR THURSDAY NIGHT! Highs BARELY REACHING 20° Friday. A Brisk wind will keep the windchills very low was well!!!

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Have a great night guys!!

*******7:15PM UPDATE THURSDAY********

Oki Doki, We got ALOT going on over the next week or so.

- Sunday through Tuesday storm is an over runner, meaning (And THANK you to the teacher who taught Dillon and me all this!) We have a a S/SW flow in the Jet, and cA (Continental Arctic) airmass Flowing East. This is the overrunning part as you get Cold air at the lower altitudes and warm air on top in the Upper Altitudes. We get Precip then, even though this is not a warm front. SO...THIS IS HOW OUR STORM WILL FORM ON SUNDAY-TUESDAY! Problem is, wherever that Cold Boundary sets up (N/S) will determine where the snows are. RIGHT now, it is setting up more or less just to the south/over NYC...meaning another huge battle between warm and cold, snow/ice/rain. We shall see where this goes, but I have a big hunch that the boundary will set up farther to the south and give us some more snow. A difference of 50-100, EVEN 25-50 MILES could make a HUGE difference for us - like the last storm.

More updates to come. At this point though, we are still getting a good amount of snow, mostly a steady light snow lasting 36 hours or more possibly.

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-BRUTAL, and I mean brutal brutal cold coming this weekend...as you saw today temps dropped 20-30° for some from morning to now. This drop will CONTINUE and we will get DEEP into the negatives tomorrow morning with the windchill. Some places even -20° with windchill.

- COLD lets up a teensy bit, but barely and we go through the weekend still with very very cold temps. PEOPL, MORE COLD AIR on the way after this.

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**************************FORECAST****************************

TONIGHT - Clear, Temperatures continuing to drop to about 4-6° in NYC to Westchester, 0-4° Northern Westchester and Rockland and Southern CT, then negatives as you get further North. Windchills NEGATIVE from -5 to -20° or less.

TOMORROW - COLDDDD in the morning windchill values in the NEGATIVES, warming up to the balmy High teens to VERY VERY low 20's

SATURDAY - Chance of some light snow in the afternoon, probably not much accumulation if any. Highs near 30° and cloudy.

SUNDAY - Light snow showers/snow developing afternoon/evening and continuing through the night, first part of the storm. More on this later. Highs in the mid to high 20's.

MAP SHOWING TEMPS WHEN WE WAKE UP TOMORROW MORNING PEOPLE - FRIGIDDDDD

*********TUESDAY EVENING UPDATIO********

AFTERNOON FOLKS, Hope you had a great weekend and fun snowdayyy :) Now get ready for more! ;)

BULLETINS:

1) Storm for Thursday/Friday which was supposed to be a combination of a clipper and Coastal storm forming will form TOO far East, leaving us with just a small clipper, 1-2" AT BEST FOR NOW. Everybody missing out on this storm - maybe the cape gets 3-6" thats it ***FOR NOW, THIS COULD CHANGE***

2) SUNDAY-MONDAY Still on the models as a potential major storm so keep an eye out.

3) RECORD cold coming over the weekend - if the models are correct SUBZERO temperatures possible WITHOUT the windchills

4) MORE storms on the horizon after Sunday/Monday System 

5) BRUTAL BRUTAL COLD ON THE WAY...REALLY 

**************FORECAST**************

TONIGHT - Clear highs in the low to mid teens.

WEDNESDAY - MAYBE OUR WARMEST DAY FOR THE NEXT WEEK? Warm front passing in the morning will spawn some Snow Showers, Not much accumulation if any, Highs reaching near or around 40° near the coast, and Mid 30's to HIGH 20's for the rest of the NE and New England..NOT FOR LONG THOUGH PEOPLE!

THURSDAY - Arctic Front on the move will plunge temperatures as the day goes on, Highs starting in the low to mid 20's will QUICKLY drop to teens and maybe single digits EVEN negatives by nightfall even down to the coast, BRUTAL COLD BY NIGHTFALL.!!!! LIGHT SNOW during the day on and off, ONLY A COATING TO AN INCH AT THIS POINT - THIS MIGHT CHANGE SO KEEP AN EYE OUT!!!! 

FRIDAY - COOLLDDDD BRUTAL COLD! Highs in the Single digits to MID/UPPER TEENS!!! COLD COLD COLD!! Partly Cloudy otherwise.

******IRVINGTON MODEL UN PEOPLES!!!, WEATHER WISE, LOOKING OK FOR NOW FOR OUR TRIP - BUT BUT BUT, COLD MAN IT IS GOING TO BE BRUTALLY COLD, WARMEST PROBABLY IN UPPER TEENS, BUT IT COULD GET DOWN WELL INTO THE NEGATIVES WITH THE WINDCHILL...PACK WARMMMLYYYY AND LOTS OF GLOVES. REMEMBER, THERE IS 4-5' OF SNOW PACK UP THERE - THIS WILL REFRIGERATE THE AIR, SO IT MAY BE COLDER THEN EVEN THE MODELS SAY. ************

*****5:45PM WINTER STORM UPDATE FOLKS ITS COMING FOR US!!!*****

Remy and I have been following the storm all day long, and we have a few minor changes in the forecast. Snowfall amounts, posted in the map below by Remy, are mostly the same as before, but what has changed for the WORSE is the ICE. SIGNIFICANT ICING is now likely in the lower and mid Hudson Valley, Northern New Jersey, and Southwestern Connecticut. Ice accretion in these areas will range from 1/4"-1/2", which is very dangerous for travel. North and south of the these areas, ice accretion will range from .10"-.25".

The storm, which up until the 18z run had was trending north, trended slightly south again on the last run, meaning slightly higher snow accumulations which will be reflected in the snow map. The storm, however, has also strengthened more than expected leading to an increase in the ice forecast
as well.

The heaviest of the snowfall will occur between 11PM and 5AM tonight, when snowfall rates may approach 2" per hour. Between 5AM and 8AM, the snow will mix with and/or change to sleet and freezing rain from south to north and continue until about 3PM when it will change back to light snow. TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS POSTED ON MAPS BELOW, SORRY FOLKS, SOUTH OF NYC THIS IS NOT YOUR STORM! - NEW ENGLAND - DOUBLE WHAMMY!!!!
Do not take this storm lightly folks. If you are going to a Super Bowl party tonight, try to be home before midnight.

IF ANYTHING CHANGES WE WILL PROVIDE UPDATES AS NEEDED. OTHERWISE, ENJOY THE SUPERBOWL AND STAY SAFE FOLKS!!!

*********WEDNESDAY EVENING WEATHER UPDATE**********

As Always, THANKS for following the page/blog and supporting us. Be sure to spread the word about us!!!

EASTERN NEW ENGLAND AND LONG ISLAND DIGGING OUT FROM THE "EPIC" STORM...REPORTS FROM 20" TO OVER 36" IN SOME PLACES. MORE SNOW ON THE WAY FOR SOME OF THEM TOO!
NOW, onto the weather!! We have a couple of key events heading our way...first one tomorrow night!!!

- First event - a clipper will pass to the North, a general Coating to an INCH, MAYBE 2" FOR NOW, but I am watching this closely as we could end up with a situation similar to a couple weeks ago with that clipper on the Friday morning when schools should have had a delay.....if you remember! AREAS TO THE NORTH EAST, Boston, Mass, CT, 3-6" IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS CLIPPER. MAINE - BOY YOU GOT WINTER STORM WARNINGS UP ALREADY, 6+" ON THE WAY!

- SECOND event, BIGGER, as of now for SUNDAY - MONDAY. We will have a storm developing in the West that will move East and either pass to the North OR south of us - right now, to the south, but the models are waffling around so we shall have to wait a few days before going to specifics. TRACK will be important as this could be rain or snow or mix or rain to snow, vise versa.

- THIRD EVENT, FAR OUT, but a POSSIBLE storm coming up next Thursday ish. All I am gonna say right now.

COLD WILL CONTINUE TO GRIP THE NORTHEAST, HIGHS ON AVERAGE 2-6° BELOW AVERAGE, WITH SOME SHOTS OF MUCH COLDER AIR IN BETWEEN AT LEAST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF WEEKS. 

A VERY ACTIVE PATTERN, SO KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR UPDATES FROM DILLON AND I.

*********FORECAST**********

TONIGHT - FRIGID in the single digits, wind chills MAY and very well COULD reach into the Negatives, any clouds should move out - but not for long.

THURSDAY - Highs right around 30° or less, especially as you get N/NW of NYC. Coastal areas a bit warmer as wind from the NE dies down a bit. Light Snow/Snow showers developing during the night, a coating to an inch maybe 2" for now - will know more tomorrow and will update y'all accordingly. SNOW MAP BELOW.

FRIDAY - Morning snowshowers/light snow will lead to partly cloudy maybe sunny skies in the afternoon, Highs in the LOW 30'S, again progressively colder as you get North and West of NYC. 

SATURDAY - COLDER, Highs in the LOW 20's. Sunny.

Snow map below for the CLIPPER, PLUS a map of snow totals from the blizzard. You can see who got the gold!

*******EVENING UPDATE*******

Rain will continue for the next 4-5 hours and WILL PROBABLY BE HEAVY FOR A GOOD CHUNK OF THAT TIME. Would not be surprised if we see another 1/2" of rain by the time this is over.

Cold air will sweep in on the backside of the system bringing in cold and dry air. Because of the "DRY" aspect of this air, I doubt we will be seeing the possible end as snow period I talked about last night - MAYBE a few flurries. Should be out of here by Midnight at the latest.

Temperatures will dip back into the mid to high 20's tonight...BE CAREFUL..ALL OF THAT STANDING WATER WILL FREEZE UP!!!
Looking at a VERY POSSIBLE decent Clipper for Wednesday - Will have to wait and see how this shapes up.

Some models indicating a return of the cold in a BIG way - watch out.

Cya folks be safe!!!

*******SATURDAY EVENING UPDATE, STORM DISCUSSION!**********

****ISSUING A HEAVY RAIN/FLOODING WARNING FOR SUNDAY MIDDAY THROUGH EVENING*******

****ISSUING A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN/MAYBE SNOW/SNIZZLE FOR SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MIDDAY****
*****ISSUING A POSSIBLE, POSSIBLE PERIOD OF SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT AS COLD AIR SWEEPS BACK IN - COULD BE MODERATE FOR 2-4 HOURS, ***IF IT HAPPENS, ONLY IF******
As a very strong upper level disturbance swings through Southern Canada, some of the energy from that will drop down and form a small wave off the edge of a cold front off the coast of the Carolina's....this wave will move NE following the Eastern Seaboard and intensify, and phase its energy as it moves over Long Island/ Southern New England. As it intensifies over S.E. N.E it will jog east a bit...NOW, Dillon and I are going on a hunch here - as it jogs east, it will allow more cold air to infiltrate, and what we think may happen is a BRIEF, 2-4 hours MAX period of snow from NYC/SUBURBS and NE as the precipitation field is thrown back a little bit. NOW, Am I expecting any significant accumulation? NO....is it possible that we do get SOME accumulation? YES! Only time will tell, so we will update on this particular issue tomorrow.

Other problems with this system, and it is illustrated below on the maps, We ONCE again have below freezing temperatures to deal with at the surface, and on the surface..but then we have this NASTY layer of warm air centered around 925mB that will keep the snow from staying snow as it falls, because if you think about it - basically a sandwhich, COLD - WARM - COLD...very frusterating, but hey its the only weather we have lets love it, as Joe Bastardi always says....SO WHAT DOES THIS MEAN? WELL...Freezing rain will be an IMPORTANT feature of this system as it comes in the morning....
I think enough said...here is our Forecast:

TONIGHT - Clear skies will become overcast towards dawn, temps in the low to mid 20's.

TOMORROW - Rain Showers/Freezing rain, and possibly some snow mixing in the morning will evolve into a steady and MOST PROBABLY HEAVY Rain in the afternoon - GUYS BE CAREFUL! 2" OF RAIN ON FROZEN GROUND WILL FLOOD AND NOT SOAK UP INTO THE GROUND! PLEASE!. Temperatures steady in the mid to upper 30's...I DOUBT we will get past 40°. Also, DO NOT be surprised if you see/hear lightning/thunder.

TOMORROW NIGHT- Rain will taper off in the evening, and WE MIGHT, POSSIBLY END as a BRIEF period of moderate snow as the cold air infiltrates in and the precipitation begins to move out. Temperatures in the low to mid 20's.

Guys, the TOTAL precipitation forecast for our Area is 1.95" of Liquid. Since we are not expecting any snow accumulations, or major ice accumulations, this will be 2" of RAIN. Ground that is frozen does NOT soak up rain. THIS WILL FLOOD! BE CAREFUL ON THE ROADS AND DRIVING!!!

MAPS VERY IMPORTANT, TAKE A LOOK!!!

BE SAFE AND HAVE A GOOD NIGHT FOLKS!

**************SUNDAY EVENING UPDATE ON OUR STORM FOR TOMORROW************

*****PUTTING OUT AN ALERT FOR A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN, ICE PELLETS AND SNOW/SLEET FOR TOMORROW MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON******

*****ROADS WILL BECOME SLIPPERY, ICEY, NOT GOING TO BE A GOOD COMMUTE TOMORROW*******

********CALLING FOR MORE A WINTRY STORM FOR THE SUBURBS THEN MANY THINK...IMPORTANT**************

OK FOLKS, once again, as it seems with all of these storms this year, another hard forecast as the boundaries of precip types, amounts, etc. are EXTREMELY close yet again.

A weak low pressure system/overrunning system will continue to form in the Ohio valley tonight and move eastward with a swath of rain to the south and ice/sleet to all snow to the north. THIS IS NOT like the last storm where it took a northerly track over the lakes and was able to bring in all that warm air that brought the highs in to the 50's. This is also where we run into trouble with this storm. It is NOT bringing in much warm air if any at all, and therefore is dealing with whatever arctic air is left in the atmosphere as it moves through.

As usual, the forecast that Dillon and I made for this storm is more RISKY then the major weather sites and other people. But, this is what we feel will happen, and what my gut is saying. I will explain it all below.

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OVER THE PAST WEEK almost, our area has experienced record cold temperatures as all of you have known. In addition to this we have had a 2" layer of snow on the ground for a good portion of that time of extreme cold. SNOW refrigerates the air, and keeps it cooler, so for the past 4-5 days the snow on the ground has been refrigerating the air. Consequently, the forecast temps for our area have been MUCH warmer then the actual temps have gotten too. We have been averaging around 4° or more below the forecast temps, and this will factor into tomorrow's forecast.

As the system comes through the area, it will have ALOT of moisture to deal with, and the convection looks to be strong, especially up in the upper levels of the system where the air is perfect for snow.

SO, TO CONCLUDE, WHEN I SEE THE MAJOR SITES SAYING AN ICEY RAIN/SNOW MIX TO AN ALL RAIN EVENT..., AND THEN I LOOK AT THE RAW DATA - I SEE 2 COMPLETELY DIFFERENT SCENARIOS.....AND PERSONALLY, I TRUST THE RAW DATA (Which Dillon and I still have to interpret) ALOT BETTER!

Here is the forecast:

TONIGHT - Light snow/sleet will break out in the wee hours of the morning, temps steady in the High 20's/VERY LOW 30's. I would say the earliest time precip will be beginning is 6-7am. 
MONDAY - Light snow/sleet will transition rather quickly to a freezing rain. GUYS, the TEMPS aloft ARE REALLY COLD! AND THE TEMPS ON THE GROUND ARE ALSO REALLY COLD! IT IS THE TEMPS FROM THE SURFACE TO ABOUT 500-1000 FEET THAT ARE WARM ENOUGH FOR THE LIQUID TO MELT, AND THEN FREEZE ON CONTACT!!!! DANGOROUS STUFF! Freezing rain/ice pellets will transition to a period of rain in the middle of the day, but not for long and then BACK to a SNOW/RAIN MIX....GUYS, I AM BETTING ON MORE OF A SNOW then RAIN MIX here. Temps will RISE to the low to mid 30's by afternoon. Suburbs north of NYC...I DOUBT we will get above 34°. To the North and WEST expect HIGHS in the high 20's to very low 30's.
Map is attached to show the different precip types, accumulations.
TOTAL DAYTIME ACCUMULATIONS:
SNOW - .5-1", MAYBE 1-2" IF WE ARE LUCKY
ICE - 0.10"-.25" - GUYS THIS IS BAD, ICE BAD!!!
Storm will move out in the evening/night hours and COLD air will follow.

*********************SNOW DAY PREDICTION/OPINION FOR THOSE WHO CARE************

Personally, given the type of precipitation, and the timing of the ice (morning) and then the change to snow/rain - I DO THINK there SHOULD be a snowday. BUT THIS IS NOT! AGAIN NOT! MY DECISION! Just my opinion!

********************Dillon will UPDATE THIS TOMORROW BETWEEN 5-6AM********************************************************************

MONDAY NIGHT - STORM CLEARING OUT, TEMPS GOING DOWN TO LOW TO MID 20'S

TUESDAY - SUNNY, highs in the low to mid 20's

WEDNESDAY - Partly sunny chance of a few flurries in the morning, highs near 30°

MAPS BELOW.

*********UPDATE COMING AROUND 5-6AM TOMORROW*********

********THURSDAY EVENING UPDATE, BIGGIE*********

OKI DOKI FOLKS...WE GOT A COUPLE NICE DAYS OF WEATHER...THEN WE HAVE A GOOD CHANCE AT IT ALL KINDA GOES DOWNHILL FOR NEXT WEEK  WINTER STYLE...SO GET READY!

- Looking at essentially 3 events over the next week:

One tonight into early tomorrow morning, THIS is our clipper, maybe 1-2" of fluff in the wee hours before it moves out, essentially acting as if it is a frontal wedge coming through the area...do not be surprised if we get some blurbs of 1-3" or more!

Second one Sunday night through Monday night - Dont know SPECIFICS yet, but lets say for now a mix of snow/ice/maybe rain and just icky!

THIRD one for Wednesday Night through Friday Morning, this one will likely be the biggest of the week, looking at again snow/sleet/ice/maybe some rain.

I am just putting it out there, DO NOT take this as a forecast, but I would NOT be surprised if by the end of next week we have a good 4-8" of snow on the ground if not more...AS OF NOW! AGAIN THIS CAN ALL CHANGE!

- COLD will start to ease off a bit for the weekend and into next week into low to mid 30's, but then it is looking likely that we will drop back down into 20's or colder after that!

- WINTER HAS ARRIVED, THIS IS ALL I CAN SAY!

CURRENT conditions at IHS Weather Station:

Temp: 16.5*F
Humidity: 64% and rising
Pressure: 30.27"
Winds: WSW @ 3 mph
DewPoint: 7*
Today we reached a high of 20.3 at 3pm, a low of 4.2* at 4am.

*******FORECAST******

TONIGHT - Temps dropping down to near 10*, clear becoming cloudy, some snow showers/light snow breaking out in the very early hours, max 1-2" of fluff.


FRIDAY - Snow showers/light snow in early morning taper off to snow showers, should clear up a bit partly cloudy by afternoon. Areas to the North and West will be a bit colder and have some longer bouts of snow...Temps rising to mid 20's...again colder North of NYC.

SATURDAY - Temps in mid to high 20's, clear, nothing really to worry about!

SUNDAY - Partly cloudy temps around 30* maybe low 30's, getting cloudier...storm possibly arriving nighttime - MORE later on this!

WILL GET INTO NEXT WEEK OVER WEEKEND!

***********QUICK TUESDAY EVENING UPDATE***********

Well quick recap for today, It did not snow AS much as we thought, but it certainly snowed longer. People down just west of Washington DC though really made out with this clipper 4-6"+ IN SOME PLACES!

- ANYWAY, BRUTALLY cold Air coming for the rest of this week, WEDNESDAY - FRIDAY MORNING, I WOULD NOT! NOT! STAY OUTSIDE FOR MORE THEN 10-15 MIN! Cold Winds, snow cover on the ground and the cold air itself will make Windchills down WELL below zero, perhaps -10* or more! Actual TEMPS WITHOUT the Windchill's will be in the single digits quite possibly! SO BE CAREFUL!

- SNOW SQUALLS! YESS! As a cold front rips through the area tomorrow, I am watching a possible Snow Squall that could rip through the area midday - MUST WATCH THIS CLOSELY!, ESPECIALLY FOLKS TO THE N/NE OF US.
- STILL Watching a Clipper for Friday, this time to our North but we may get something!

- Next week is beginning to look VERY VERY interesting as we have 2 possible BIG coastal storms that could develop, one for Monday-Tuesday in our Area and one for Thursday-Friday. Then signs are showing another possible system for the week after as well as Clippers to come in and out of play!

- MILD warmup for Next week, we will get into LOW TO MID 30'S...for a bit, then maybe some signs of cold returning?!

********************FORECAST*******************

TONIGHT - COLLLDD COOLLLLD in the mid teens, colder North and West of NYC. Cloudy skies will clear out a teensy bit!

TOMORROW - COLLDDDD AND GETTING COLDER! Temps in the Mid to high teens will drop to low teens by afternoon as a cold front rips through during morning to mid afternoon! Winds will be up 20mph gusting MAYBE up to 45-50mph. Windchill's down to SINGLE DIGITS WILL NOT BE UNCOMMON! I will update tomorrow but I DO think we will get a good snow shower or Squall as the cold front rips through! Stay tuned!

THURSDAY - ABSOLUTE COLDEST DAY! Morning Windchills WELL BELOW 0*, Daytime Highs only up to SINGLE DIGITS! To the North and West of the City do not be surprised with Temps down into the -20's or below especially up on the mountains. SUNNY, BREEZY STILL!
FRIDAY - Chance of a Clipper late morning, updates on this later! A bit warmer in the 20's.

********EVENING UPDATE******

I am happy to say that the snow amounts that I forecasted came out more or less right on target! I knew that there was too muhc cold air here that it would be all rain today  silly weather sites  

SO,.. Here is the deal! Forecast for the rest of the night and tomorrow:

TONIGHT - Snow/Sleet will turn to Sleet and then ALL rain by 9pm for pretty much everybody south of Albany. Peoples North of Albany and Concord, NH expect it to stay an icey/sleety/snowy mix until late tonight before changing over to all rain. Temps will rise to mid to HIGH 30's.

TOMORROW - WOW MUCH WARMER! I dont think nearly as warm as some are saying (61*!) BUT we will definately get up into 50's, and possibly break that 60* mark, but probably only for folks SOUTH of I287/Thruway.

MONDAY - First cold front moves through Sunday night finish up its passage Monday, temps in the mid 30's, partly cloudy.

GETTING INTO TUESDAY We have an Alberta Clipper that will MOST LIKELY affect us Tuesday afternoon into evening. Since Alberta Clippers are fast and hard to predict until they are basically on our doorstep, we will get into this Monday night!

Latest Radar image below!

Friday Night discussion and Forecast for Weekend storm, SNOW Forecast map

BOY DO WE HAVE AN INTERESTING STORM COMING!

OK, Here is the deal...I am looking at 4 different models right now and ALL of them are telling me one thing, while the websites you might be going on like weather.com might be telling you the complete opposite of what I am about to forecast for tomorrow. I am NOT saying these sites are wrong, but what I am seeing on the models and how I am interpreting it is telling me we are in for a whole different story then what they say! I will explain this below. 

Step #1 - Storm has already formed in the South/mid area of our country over Texas and will continue to move NE over the Great Lakes and join up with a small system that is dropping down from Farther North. As it moves through those lakes it will intensify, and have the opportunity to start bringing in warmer air. 

Step #2 - COLD AIR! YESS! TONS OF IT AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM, AND TONS BEHIND! The PROBLEM is the Area of High pressure that we need to just sit put and let that cold air stay will be moved and decimated by the system, which WILL allow it to bring in the warmer air at the surface during the NIGHT on Saturday into Sunday night. The Southern Jet will help with this too. SO, Start as some Snow/Icey/Slushy mix as the cold and dry air that is already around will be cold enough for snow, and then as the colder air is replaces by warmer moist air in the evening of tomorrow it will turn over to rain for the night and into Sunday, and move out Sunday night...Sound like a plan??!
 

SO HERE IS MY FORECAST:

TONIGHT - COLD in the mid 20's, clear becoming quite cloudy.

TOMORROW - Cloudy in the morning, SNOW most likely starting lunch time to 2pm IT COULD COME IN HEAVY and be quite nasty until the evening!!! Highs low to mid 30's, colder to the North and West. Areas North of Hudson, Windham/Kingston area...It WILL be not FUN to be OUT up there!!!

TOMORROW NIGHT - Changeover to Sleet mid evening hours and all over to rain by 9pm for ALMOST ALL even up into Northern NY and Southern New England. Nighttime temps will rise to MID to HIGH 30'S as the system brings in all the warm air and continues its trek.

SUNDAY - Highs rising into low to mid 50's for almost all up even past Albany then into 40's north of there. Rain and maybe some Thunder in the morning will begin to clear out of the Hudson valley area in the afternoon, nighttime for areas east of NY.

MONDAY - COLDDDD FRONTS MOVE IN and Probably bring some of the coldest, if not the coldest air of this season with it! Monday wont be AS cold Highs in the low to mid 30's

TUESDAY - Highs in the mid 20's...Probably a clipper in the afternoon evening, usually clippers bring 2-4, 3-5" of snow...so we shall see!

Thanks again to Weatherbell and Dr. Maue for the AMAZING MAPS AND GRAPHICS!

*******SUNDAY EVENING WEATHER DISCUSSION******

OKI DOKI we have a bunch of things going on right now in the weather world, especially with this [hopefully the last] pattern change to set us into a hard core locked in winter.

- First cold shock to come over the next week and will push our temps back down where they belong in the low to mid 30's by the end of the week, maybe reaching 40*. The REAL cold shock comes towards the beginning/middle of next week with a Huge Continental Polar Air mass...so look forward to those cold temps coming back!

- SIN CITY - YES YOU! Snow is heading your way! middle of this week! Now, how does this relate to us over here on the east coast? Because what starts in the west ends in the east, and this is a very strong system, so how that energy travels over the US will dictate a possible storm for next weekend! Right now things are very iffy with this energy, so keep an eye out, COULD BE SNOW?!

- Calm week more or less after Monday Night for us folks here along the majority of the Eastern Seaboard, High pressure will build to the South of us and over us, give for a good amount of sunny colder and progressively colder days. 

//////////////////////////////Very Nice picture Below explaining the Origins of Air Masses and how they affect us!\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\

*******************FORECAST********************

TONIGHT - Lows in the mid to low 30's pretty much up the entire coast.

MONDAY - Highs in the Low to mid 40's, progressively colder North and West of NYC, warmer along the coast. Sunny.

TUESDAY - Highs in the low to mid 30's, again progressively colder North and West of the City as the core of that initial cold front moves through. Sunny, a bit of wind

WEDNESDAY - Highs just about near freezing, Sunny.

Friday Night update, Forecast and Discussion

LONNNGGG time no see! Sorry about the lack up weather related updates...was on vacation up in Quebec skiing and did not have time or my computer to make these forecasts!. SO...first things first a few notes.

- You WILL NOT be seeing any more maps from the European Models on the blog or this weather page, at least for now unless I can figure something out. The Euro license that the site I get the maps from has prohibits me from copying the images to show you guys...SO, I will still talk about them, but for now no maps.

-PLEASSSE.. If you have not already, go take a look at our blog! Every post is the same, but we can do much more with how the posts look, and pictures...overall giving you a better experience. So head on over to weatherinthehud.blogspot.com and SUBSCRIBE!

- MILD weekend! The Polar vortex is reorganizing itself, and as well thanks to a POSITIVE NAO (partially) the Jet stream will favor a more northern POSITION allowing High pressure to build over the area and let in mild air from the gulf. 

- The AMOSPHERE IS IN A HUGE TRANSITION PHASE right now...what I believe, going through the models, and what many other people are looking at right now is a return of the pattern we saw in November, the cold and storminess...but more winter still...SO, Over next 2 weeks let this pattern sink in and then I am still a firm believer in that winter will take hold...to many things telling me to think otherwise at the moment.

**********FORECAST****************

TONIGHT - MILD, comparatively. Lows in the High to mid 30's. 

SATURDAY - EVEN WARMER, Highs near 50*, partly sunny...few clouds here and there.

SUNDAY - We get sort of tricky here...will a wave develop off the coast for Monday and give us some snow? We will have to see.. For now Highs in the mid 40's, cloudy with some showers on and off. 

COLD COMES SUNDAY NIGHT.

Have a great day folks!