Sunday Evening Weather Update - Nice week ahead for the most part!

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Updated: 2350z/19:50/07:50PM

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TONIGHT - Lows in the mid 40's for most everybody, Clear but getting a bit cloudy towards morning.

MONDAY - Small chance of a spotty shower in the morning, but probably not. Clouds in the morning will clear out, highs in the low 60's for most, nice breeze as well.

TUESDAY - Morning will feature light rain, maybe a thunderstorm or two before clearing out by afternoon, Highs in high 50's to maybe low 60's.

WEDNESDAY - Highs in the high 50's, mostly sunny with some passing clouds likely.

---------------------------FORECAST DISCUSSION-----------------------

First off, Dillon and I hope that you liked our 2015 Spring Outlook! If you have any questions - come ask away. Spring is an interesting period as it a changing season and we often go up and down in the weather during it. So lets enjoy it!

Pretty nice week coming up for the most part, mild weather in the high 50's to low 60's for most of the week should work out nicely. A cold front will pass through the area Tuesday morning into the afternoon and that will bring some showers and possibly a t-storm with it, and then High pressure will build over the area getting into Wednesday and Thursday, keep in mind this is rather cold air coming down from Canada..it should stay mild, but still below average temperatures for this period. This will stick around until Friday night, as another cold front begins to come into the area for Saturday bringing our next chance at some rain.

Some Highlights
-Rain Tuesday Morning
-Possible Rain Saturday night into Sunday
-Another storm possible early next week.

I have below the 10 day GFS total precipitation totals, the South has some pretty impressive #'s down there, some places near New Orleans approaching the 10" mark. Most of this will fall late this week, would not be surprised of reports of flooding. Of course California is bone dry....we should see that change in the coming months!

Friday Night discussion and Forecast for Weekend storm, SNOW Forecast map

BOY DO WE HAVE AN INTERESTING STORM COMING!

OK, Here is the deal...I am looking at 4 different models right now and ALL of them are telling me one thing, while the websites you might be going on like weather.com might be telling you the complete opposite of what I am about to forecast for tomorrow. I am NOT saying these sites are wrong, but what I am seeing on the models and how I am interpreting it is telling me we are in for a whole different story then what they say! I will explain this below. 

Step #1 - Storm has already formed in the South/mid area of our country over Texas and will continue to move NE over the Great Lakes and join up with a small system that is dropping down from Farther North. As it moves through those lakes it will intensify, and have the opportunity to start bringing in warmer air. 

Step #2 - COLD AIR! YESS! TONS OF IT AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM, AND TONS BEHIND! The PROBLEM is the Area of High pressure that we need to just sit put and let that cold air stay will be moved and decimated by the system, which WILL allow it to bring in the warmer air at the surface during the NIGHT on Saturday into Sunday night. The Southern Jet will help with this too. SO, Start as some Snow/Icey/Slushy mix as the cold and dry air that is already around will be cold enough for snow, and then as the colder air is replaces by warmer moist air in the evening of tomorrow it will turn over to rain for the night and into Sunday, and move out Sunday night...Sound like a plan??!
 

SO HERE IS MY FORECAST:

TONIGHT - COLD in the mid 20's, clear becoming quite cloudy.

TOMORROW - Cloudy in the morning, SNOW most likely starting lunch time to 2pm IT COULD COME IN HEAVY and be quite nasty until the evening!!! Highs low to mid 30's, colder to the North and West. Areas North of Hudson, Windham/Kingston area...It WILL be not FUN to be OUT up there!!!

TOMORROW NIGHT - Changeover to Sleet mid evening hours and all over to rain by 9pm for ALMOST ALL even up into Northern NY and Southern New England. Nighttime temps will rise to MID to HIGH 30'S as the system brings in all the warm air and continues its trek.

SUNDAY - Highs rising into low to mid 50's for almost all up even past Albany then into 40's north of there. Rain and maybe some Thunder in the morning will begin to clear out of the Hudson valley area in the afternoon, nighttime for areas east of NY.

MONDAY - COLDDDD FRONTS MOVE IN and Probably bring some of the coldest, if not the coldest air of this season with it! Monday wont be AS cold Highs in the low to mid 30's

TUESDAY - Highs in the mid 20's...Probably a clipper in the afternoon evening, usually clippers bring 2-4, 3-5" of snow...so we shall see!

Thanks again to Weatherbell and Dr. Maue for the AMAZING MAPS AND GRAPHICS!