********WEDNESDAY EVENING 8:30PM UPDATE**********

Sorry about no update last night, Dillon and me were both very busy, and we did not feel there was enough to make a meaningful post. Its been a quiet week!

*****************

Feels warm past couple of days right! SLOWLY, ever so slowly we are trending (barely noticeable) back to "average" temperatures...Now the question is will we get back to Average or ABOVE average? At least in the next 2 weeks - We doubt it. Maybe a few small warm ups here and there for a couple hours...but overall models trending Below to WELL below average for the next several days, into the 2-3 week margin...maybe even through the next 45 days?

*****************

Many storms on the horizon, first big one would be Sunday to maybe Tuesday, likely Sunday night - Monday night. Right now Rain/ice to snow maybe back to rain or all snow...many details to workout too early too say much.

Tomorrow morning chance of light snow and some snow showers as a system passes to the south. Little to no accumulation for us.

*****************

TONIGHT - Lows near 10° progressively colder North and NW of NYC. Clear but becoming cloudy as the night goes on.

THURSDAY - Possible Light snow/snow showers (Most likely some flurries - BUT) No accumulations likely. Highs in the low to mid 20's.

FRIDAY - Highs in the mid 20's, some sun some clouds.

SATURDAY - Sunny highs near 30°, overall a pleasant day smile emoticon

HAVE A GREAT NIGHT GUYS!

*******IMPORTANT UPDATE FOLKS!!!*********

**********TAKING A BIT OF A RISK HERE, BUT I THINK IT DESERVES TO BE PUT OUT************

LATEST MODEL DATA + SATELLITE AND RADAR DATA SHOWING THAT THIS CLIPPER WILL BE ABLE TO PICK UP SOME MORE MOISTURE OFF THE ATLANTIC AS IT PINWHEELS OUTTA HERE AND INTENSIFIES, A BIT SOONER ACTUALLY, AND THIS WILL **LIKELY*** DEVELOP SOME MODERATE BANDS OF SNOW IN THE MORNING RUSH HOUR. I HAVE WATCHED IT TREND MORE WITH EACH RUN, SO DILLON AND I THOUGHT WE SHOULD UPDATE THE SNOW MAP. 

STILL NOTE, CLIPPERS ARE VERY HARD TO PREDICT, BUT I THINK WE HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS ONE!, OTHER SNOW MAP STILL IN EFFECT IF THESE BANDS FAIL TO DEVELOP...MOTHER NATURE DOES WHAT MOTHER NATURE WANTS!

*********WEDNESDAY EVENING WEATHER UPDATE**********

As Always, THANKS for following the page/blog and supporting us. Be sure to spread the word about us!!!

EASTERN NEW ENGLAND AND LONG ISLAND DIGGING OUT FROM THE "EPIC" STORM...REPORTS FROM 20" TO OVER 36" IN SOME PLACES. MORE SNOW ON THE WAY FOR SOME OF THEM TOO!
NOW, onto the weather!! We have a couple of key events heading our way...first one tomorrow night!!!

- First event - a clipper will pass to the North, a general Coating to an INCH, MAYBE 2" FOR NOW, but I am watching this closely as we could end up with a situation similar to a couple weeks ago with that clipper on the Friday morning when schools should have had a delay.....if you remember! AREAS TO THE NORTH EAST, Boston, Mass, CT, 3-6" IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS CLIPPER. MAINE - BOY YOU GOT WINTER STORM WARNINGS UP ALREADY, 6+" ON THE WAY!

- SECOND event, BIGGER, as of now for SUNDAY - MONDAY. We will have a storm developing in the West that will move East and either pass to the North OR south of us - right now, to the south, but the models are waffling around so we shall have to wait a few days before going to specifics. TRACK will be important as this could be rain or snow or mix or rain to snow, vise versa.

- THIRD EVENT, FAR OUT, but a POSSIBLE storm coming up next Thursday ish. All I am gonna say right now.

COLD WILL CONTINUE TO GRIP THE NORTHEAST, HIGHS ON AVERAGE 2-6° BELOW AVERAGE, WITH SOME SHOTS OF MUCH COLDER AIR IN BETWEEN AT LEAST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF WEEKS. 

A VERY ACTIVE PATTERN, SO KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR UPDATES FROM DILLON AND I.

*********FORECAST**********

TONIGHT - FRIGID in the single digits, wind chills MAY and very well COULD reach into the Negatives, any clouds should move out - but not for long.

THURSDAY - Highs right around 30° or less, especially as you get N/NW of NYC. Coastal areas a bit warmer as wind from the NE dies down a bit. Light Snow/Snow showers developing during the night, a coating to an inch maybe 2" for now - will know more tomorrow and will update y'all accordingly. SNOW MAP BELOW.

FRIDAY - Morning snowshowers/light snow will lead to partly cloudy maybe sunny skies in the afternoon, Highs in the LOW 30'S, again progressively colder as you get North and West of NYC. 

SATURDAY - COLDER, Highs in the LOW 20's. Sunny.

Snow map below for the CLIPPER, PLUS a map of snow totals from the blizzard. You can see who got the gold!

*******EVENING UPDATE*******

Rain will continue for the next 4-5 hours and WILL PROBABLY BE HEAVY FOR A GOOD CHUNK OF THAT TIME. Would not be surprised if we see another 1/2" of rain by the time this is over.

Cold air will sweep in on the backside of the system bringing in cold and dry air. Because of the "DRY" aspect of this air, I doubt we will be seeing the possible end as snow period I talked about last night - MAYBE a few flurries. Should be out of here by Midnight at the latest.

Temperatures will dip back into the mid to high 20's tonight...BE CAREFUL..ALL OF THAT STANDING WATER WILL FREEZE UP!!!
Looking at a VERY POSSIBLE decent Clipper for Wednesday - Will have to wait and see how this shapes up.

Some models indicating a return of the cold in a BIG way - watch out.

Cya folks be safe!!!

***********QUICK TUESDAY EVENING UPDATE***********

Well quick recap for today, It did not snow AS much as we thought, but it certainly snowed longer. People down just west of Washington DC though really made out with this clipper 4-6"+ IN SOME PLACES!

- ANYWAY, BRUTALLY cold Air coming for the rest of this week, WEDNESDAY - FRIDAY MORNING, I WOULD NOT! NOT! STAY OUTSIDE FOR MORE THEN 10-15 MIN! Cold Winds, snow cover on the ground and the cold air itself will make Windchills down WELL below zero, perhaps -10* or more! Actual TEMPS WITHOUT the Windchill's will be in the single digits quite possibly! SO BE CAREFUL!

- SNOW SQUALLS! YESS! As a cold front rips through the area tomorrow, I am watching a possible Snow Squall that could rip through the area midday - MUST WATCH THIS CLOSELY!, ESPECIALLY FOLKS TO THE N/NE OF US.
- STILL Watching a Clipper for Friday, this time to our North but we may get something!

- Next week is beginning to look VERY VERY interesting as we have 2 possible BIG coastal storms that could develop, one for Monday-Tuesday in our Area and one for Thursday-Friday. Then signs are showing another possible system for the week after as well as Clippers to come in and out of play!

- MILD warmup for Next week, we will get into LOW TO MID 30'S...for a bit, then maybe some signs of cold returning?!

********************FORECAST*******************

TONIGHT - COLLLDD COOLLLLD in the mid teens, colder North and West of NYC. Cloudy skies will clear out a teensy bit!

TOMORROW - COLLDDDD AND GETTING COLDER! Temps in the Mid to high teens will drop to low teens by afternoon as a cold front rips through during morning to mid afternoon! Winds will be up 20mph gusting MAYBE up to 45-50mph. Windchill's down to SINGLE DIGITS WILL NOT BE UNCOMMON! I will update tomorrow but I DO think we will get a good snow shower or Squall as the cold front rips through! Stay tuned!

THURSDAY - ABSOLUTE COLDEST DAY! Morning Windchills WELL BELOW 0*, Daytime Highs only up to SINGLE DIGITS! To the North and West of the City do not be surprised with Temps down into the -20's or below especially up on the mountains. SUNNY, BREEZY STILL!
FRIDAY - Chance of a Clipper late morning, updates on this later! A bit warmer in the 20's.

*******MONDAY NIGHT FORECAST DISCUSSION*************

***ISSUING an Alert of Light to moderate snowfall Tomorrow Tuesday the 6th from mid morning until afternoon and possibly evening***

YESSS Folks first Alberta Clipper will be affecting us tomorrow from mid morning until the Afternoon and possibly evening hours. THE characteristics of Alberta Clippers, which are usually fast, and do not have THAT much moisture to deal with also make it quite difficult to forecast...SO, I have a feeling, based off of the latest data from the models, and looking at other maps, that we might be getting a bit more then the major sites are forecasting, and it might be a BIT MORE heavy than you think, as was the Snow on Saturday (Short lived, but it came down!).
SO! Here is my forecast, and a snow totals map will be posted. ANOTHER thing to keep in mind - The TEMPERATURES aloft in the Atmosphere are SO COLD (Below 0*C) that something to watch with this clipper will be "Fluff" Factor - USUALLY we go by a standard ratio of 10:1 when forecasting snow amounts (10" snow = 1" rain)...SO, on a map, .5" of QPF (Liquid) would be 5" of snow. 1" QPF would be 10" snow. NOW, because these temperatures are so cold, we could be looking at a 15 or 20:1 ratio...so, .3" QPF would yield 4.5-6" of snow with a 15-20:1 ratio!

So, the models right now are forecasting 1-2" of snow for us based off of a 10:1 ratio...assuming that we actually get a 15-20:1 ratio, that 1-2" (0.1-0.2" QPF) suddenly becomes 1.5-3" or 2-4" of snow.

In this forecast, I have used a 18:1 ratio, and have combined all of the major models to get an average amount of QPF for our area. This is reflected on the map!.
ANOTHER thing with this clipper, it will be Riding the Jetstream the whole way...so, what is usually a fast storm suddenly became faster. I think that once it hits the warm water it will rapidly intensify, and slow down and give us more snow - which may happen depending on the winds in the Jet, or may not happen. ALOTTA tiny details for even a small storm!

OTHER THEN THE CLIPPER, COLLLLDDDDEST TEMPS OF THE SEASON COMING THIS WEEK, THURSDAY WILL BE THE COLDEST. A MINOR PULLBACK THIS WEEKEND, THEN ANOTHER COLD SHOT.

************************FORECAST**************************

TONIGHT - COLLDDDD and Clear skies will make it EVEN COLDER! Those winds today was the first of several cold fronts to come through, and tonight temps will drop to the low to mid teens. Much colder as you make your way to the North and into the Mountains and NW towards the Canadian Border. Coastal areas a few degrees warmer then inland.

TOMORROW - Snow will begin early to mid morning and continue lightly, maybe some stronger bands but I don't think it will get too bad. Total accumulations 1-3" for now, this COULD change tomorrow keep an eye out! Snow will stick around until mid afternoon, maybe evening. TEMPS BARELY MAKING IT TO MID 20'S, COLDER INLAND.

WEDNESDAY - Highs in the mid to HIGH teens...Morning WINDCHILLS COULD GO AND STAY IN THE NEGATIVES!

THURSDAY - Highs in the LOW Teens, maybe even below 10*, windchills possibly -20* or less.

Friday we have another chance at a clipper, and Monday-Tuesday chance of a coastal storm developing which would bring snow.

SNOWFALL MAP BELOW, EXPECT UPDATES LATER!

WILL BE POSTING TEMP MAPS FOR THE NEXT WEEK, AND WINDCHILL TEMPS

WINDCHILL Temperatures for Tomorrow

High Temperatures Tomorrow!!! COLLDDD

********EVENING UPDATE******

I am happy to say that the snow amounts that I forecasted came out more or less right on target! I knew that there was too muhc cold air here that it would be all rain today  silly weather sites  

SO,.. Here is the deal! Forecast for the rest of the night and tomorrow:

TONIGHT - Snow/Sleet will turn to Sleet and then ALL rain by 9pm for pretty much everybody south of Albany. Peoples North of Albany and Concord, NH expect it to stay an icey/sleety/snowy mix until late tonight before changing over to all rain. Temps will rise to mid to HIGH 30's.

TOMORROW - WOW MUCH WARMER! I dont think nearly as warm as some are saying (61*!) BUT we will definately get up into 50's, and possibly break that 60* mark, but probably only for folks SOUTH of I287/Thruway.

MONDAY - First cold front moves through Sunday night finish up its passage Monday, temps in the mid 30's, partly cloudy.

GETTING INTO TUESDAY We have an Alberta Clipper that will MOST LIKELY affect us Tuesday afternoon into evening. Since Alberta Clippers are fast and hard to predict until they are basically on our doorstep, we will get into this Monday night!

Latest Radar image below!

Friday Night discussion and Forecast for Weekend storm, SNOW Forecast map

BOY DO WE HAVE AN INTERESTING STORM COMING!

OK, Here is the deal...I am looking at 4 different models right now and ALL of them are telling me one thing, while the websites you might be going on like weather.com might be telling you the complete opposite of what I am about to forecast for tomorrow. I am NOT saying these sites are wrong, but what I am seeing on the models and how I am interpreting it is telling me we are in for a whole different story then what they say! I will explain this below. 

Step #1 - Storm has already formed in the South/mid area of our country over Texas and will continue to move NE over the Great Lakes and join up with a small system that is dropping down from Farther North. As it moves through those lakes it will intensify, and have the opportunity to start bringing in warmer air. 

Step #2 - COLD AIR! YESS! TONS OF IT AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM, AND TONS BEHIND! The PROBLEM is the Area of High pressure that we need to just sit put and let that cold air stay will be moved and decimated by the system, which WILL allow it to bring in the warmer air at the surface during the NIGHT on Saturday into Sunday night. The Southern Jet will help with this too. SO, Start as some Snow/Icey/Slushy mix as the cold and dry air that is already around will be cold enough for snow, and then as the colder air is replaces by warmer moist air in the evening of tomorrow it will turn over to rain for the night and into Sunday, and move out Sunday night...Sound like a plan??!
 

SO HERE IS MY FORECAST:

TONIGHT - COLD in the mid 20's, clear becoming quite cloudy.

TOMORROW - Cloudy in the morning, SNOW most likely starting lunch time to 2pm IT COULD COME IN HEAVY and be quite nasty until the evening!!! Highs low to mid 30's, colder to the North and West. Areas North of Hudson, Windham/Kingston area...It WILL be not FUN to be OUT up there!!!

TOMORROW NIGHT - Changeover to Sleet mid evening hours and all over to rain by 9pm for ALMOST ALL even up into Northern NY and Southern New England. Nighttime temps will rise to MID to HIGH 30'S as the system brings in all the warm air and continues its trek.

SUNDAY - Highs rising into low to mid 50's for almost all up even past Albany then into 40's north of there. Rain and maybe some Thunder in the morning will begin to clear out of the Hudson valley area in the afternoon, nighttime for areas east of NY.

MONDAY - COLDDDD FRONTS MOVE IN and Probably bring some of the coldest, if not the coldest air of this season with it! Monday wont be AS cold Highs in the low to mid 30's

TUESDAY - Highs in the mid 20's...Probably a clipper in the afternoon evening, usually clippers bring 2-4, 3-5" of snow...so we shall see!

Thanks again to Weatherbell and Dr. Maue for the AMAZING MAPS AND GRAPHICS!

********TUESDAY NIGHT FORECAST/DISCUSSION, UPDATES ON WINTER STORM FOR WEEKEND...BIGGIE!***************

-POTENTIAL FOR A [BIG?] WINTER(Y) Type storm coming onto the short term models for this weekend, Saturday Night through Sunday night...maybe just maybe into Monday morning. DETAILS BELOW
- Tug Hill area off of Lake Ontario, Watertown area - LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCHES/WARNINGS IN EFFECT UNTIL FRIDAY MORNING. I would Not be surprised if you guys see anywhere from 1-2 feet or MORE in the persistent bands. So ENJOY IT, IF YOU ARE A SNOW LOVER...I WISH I WAS THERE I KNOW THAT!

- The Euro models AND the GFS are hinting at a MAJOR COLD SHOT in the 6-10 day period from now, I am talking 25+ degrees below average, possibly having a 0* day in NYC...I AM NOT SAYING THIS WILL HAPPEN, HOWEVER, IT IS SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE OUT THAT A BIG COLD SHOT MAY BE COMING...
**********WINTER STORM DETAILS for the Scenario I deem likely AT THIS POINT*******
STEP #1 Energy from the storm that will be affecting the Midwest and parts of the West Coast on New Years will move across the country while another area of low pressure that will bring some snow to the Northern Plains and North West drops down to the great lakes. THESE TWO SYSTEMS MERGE, and form what we weather weenies call "Lake Cutters" Basically the system will cut across the lake, and gather moisture, intensifying greatly...

STEP #2 The storm will LIKELY take this more NORTHERLY track (Although I think it will be further south, MORE COLD) and Consequently, as it moves through the area, it will suck in warm air from the south. SO AGAIN, ALONG THOSE COASTAL REGIONS...WATCH OUT IT WILL MOST LIKELY BE A MORE WET THAN SNOWY STORM, MORE ICEY TOO....HOWEVER:
1. As the storm makes its way through the area, it will bring in the warmer air from the south, however for a brief period of time..SO, even if it does get up to LOW 40's during middle of day, the storm will still be around later AND there will be PLENTY of cold air aloft for it to deal with - therefore, I think we are in for a more snowy event then we think....BUT...lets stick to more rain for now.

STEP #3...The system will move out of the area by Sunday night, leaving us MUCH colder as it brings in the cold air behind it. 

GUYS, I AM VERY WORRIED ABOUT THIS SYSTEM...The models are treating it as basically a "FRONTAL" system moving through the area, like a cold front...BUT IT IS NOT THAT! FURTHERMORE, the models are trying to "tear" the system apart as it moves through Western New York because of the INTENSE High pressure to the north of the system...I DO NOT THINK THIS WILL HAPPEN, AND THINK THE SYSTEM WILL TAKE A SLIGHTLY MORE SOUTHERN TRACK and CONSEQUENTLY be a colder storm for everybody.

One thing of IMPORTANCE, and of great interest...The NAO, which many people look to when they want to know when cold may be coming is NOT TO BE TRUSTED RIGHT NOW.... Last couple of weeks we had unusually HIGH temperatures and the NAO went NEGATIVE (Usually goes POSITIVE for Warmer Temps)...NOW we are getting colder and the NAO is going POSITIVE!...So, wacky things going on! Lets wait until mid February before we look at it as an Indicator of Warm/cold. 
OK ENOUGH BLABBER RIGHT NOW!

*********************FORECAST****************************

TONIGHT - COLLDDDD in the low 20's to High teens in the Northern Suburbs and interior NY...Along the coast a tad warmer. Clear, maybe some passing clouds.

WEDNESDAY/NEW YEARS EVE - Highs JUST about Freezing, again colder to the North and interior NY, warmer along the coast, sunny...a slight wind.

THURSDAY - Around the same temps, windy

FRIDAY - A TAD warmer, in the mid 30's, Sunny still windy.

PICS EXPLAINING THE WHOLE THING!

HAVE A NICE NIGHT FOLKS! And a HAPPY NEW YEARS!

*******SUNDAY EVENING WEATHER DISCUSSION******

OKI DOKI we have a bunch of things going on right now in the weather world, especially with this [hopefully the last] pattern change to set us into a hard core locked in winter.

- First cold shock to come over the next week and will push our temps back down where they belong in the low to mid 30's by the end of the week, maybe reaching 40*. The REAL cold shock comes towards the beginning/middle of next week with a Huge Continental Polar Air mass...so look forward to those cold temps coming back!

- SIN CITY - YES YOU! Snow is heading your way! middle of this week! Now, how does this relate to us over here on the east coast? Because what starts in the west ends in the east, and this is a very strong system, so how that energy travels over the US will dictate a possible storm for next weekend! Right now things are very iffy with this energy, so keep an eye out, COULD BE SNOW?!

- Calm week more or less after Monday Night for us folks here along the majority of the Eastern Seaboard, High pressure will build to the South of us and over us, give for a good amount of sunny colder and progressively colder days. 

//////////////////////////////Very Nice picture Below explaining the Origins of Air Masses and how they affect us!\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\

*******************FORECAST********************

TONIGHT - Lows in the mid to low 30's pretty much up the entire coast.

MONDAY - Highs in the Low to mid 40's, progressively colder North and West of NYC, warmer along the coast. Sunny.

TUESDAY - Highs in the low to mid 30's, again progressively colder North and West of the City as the core of that initial cold front moves through. Sunny, a bit of wind

WEDNESDAY - Highs just about near freezing, Sunny.