**********VERY IMPORTANT 5:30 AM UPDATE**********

Last night some of the models had Remy and I VERY CONCERNED that the storm was going to be further offshore and therefore we would receive a much reduced amount of snow. However, the European model, which is highly trusted among many meteorologists, has been consistent in its last four runs printing 24"+ across the area. Additionally, the model runs that were portraying a faster and more offshore system have since returned to something closer to that of the European model. 

With that being said, we will NOT make any changes as of now to our current snowfall map as we still believe everything is in place for a MAJOR blizzard. Those of you under the 18-24" range (lower Hudson Valley, NE New Jersey, Long Island, and coastal New England) should be on guard for blizzard-like conditions beginning late Monday night and continuing through the early afternoon on Tuesday. Additionally, mesoscale banding (essentially VERY heavy bands of snow) will set up somewhere across the aforementioned area, creating a "sweet spot" for snowfall (30 INCHES PLUS)... however, predicting exactly where these bands will form is nearly impossible this far in advance.

The timing of the storm has also remained the same. During the day on Monday, most areas can expect between 1-3" of snow before nightfall as the clipper arrives. Come this evening, the snow will pick up in intensity as the storm stalls and strengthens off the New Jersey coast. We are highlighting the time period from LATE MONDAY EVENING THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON as the period of the heaviest snowfall. Snowfall rates could approach FOUR INCHES PER HOUR. Tuesday evening the storm should begin to wind down with little additional accumulation. For total accumulations in your area, refer to the map below. Then it gets COLD.

Folks, this is a VERY dangerous storm. If you do not have to travel, DON'T. At the height of the storm, some roads will likely be IMPASSABLE and power outages are very possible. Make sure you are prepared with food, water, flashlights, batteries, and plenty of warm clothing/blankets. This storm will most likely go down in the record books.

*******SATURDAY EVENING UPDATE, STORM DISCUSSION!**********

****ISSUING A HEAVY RAIN/FLOODING WARNING FOR SUNDAY MIDDAY THROUGH EVENING*******

****ISSUING A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN/MAYBE SNOW/SNIZZLE FOR SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MIDDAY****
*****ISSUING A POSSIBLE, POSSIBLE PERIOD OF SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT AS COLD AIR SWEEPS BACK IN - COULD BE MODERATE FOR 2-4 HOURS, ***IF IT HAPPENS, ONLY IF******
As a very strong upper level disturbance swings through Southern Canada, some of the energy from that will drop down and form a small wave off the edge of a cold front off the coast of the Carolina's....this wave will move NE following the Eastern Seaboard and intensify, and phase its energy as it moves over Long Island/ Southern New England. As it intensifies over S.E. N.E it will jog east a bit...NOW, Dillon and I are going on a hunch here - as it jogs east, it will allow more cold air to infiltrate, and what we think may happen is a BRIEF, 2-4 hours MAX period of snow from NYC/SUBURBS and NE as the precipitation field is thrown back a little bit. NOW, Am I expecting any significant accumulation? NO....is it possible that we do get SOME accumulation? YES! Only time will tell, so we will update on this particular issue tomorrow.

Other problems with this system, and it is illustrated below on the maps, We ONCE again have below freezing temperatures to deal with at the surface, and on the surface..but then we have this NASTY layer of warm air centered around 925mB that will keep the snow from staying snow as it falls, because if you think about it - basically a sandwhich, COLD - WARM - COLD...very frusterating, but hey its the only weather we have lets love it, as Joe Bastardi always says....SO WHAT DOES THIS MEAN? WELL...Freezing rain will be an IMPORTANT feature of this system as it comes in the morning....
I think enough said...here is our Forecast:

TONIGHT - Clear skies will become overcast towards dawn, temps in the low to mid 20's.

TOMORROW - Rain Showers/Freezing rain, and possibly some snow mixing in the morning will evolve into a steady and MOST PROBABLY HEAVY Rain in the afternoon - GUYS BE CAREFUL! 2" OF RAIN ON FROZEN GROUND WILL FLOOD AND NOT SOAK UP INTO THE GROUND! PLEASE!. Temperatures steady in the mid to upper 30's...I DOUBT we will get past 40°. Also, DO NOT be surprised if you see/hear lightning/thunder.

TOMORROW NIGHT- Rain will taper off in the evening, and WE MIGHT, POSSIBLY END as a BRIEF period of moderate snow as the cold air infiltrates in and the precipitation begins to move out. Temperatures in the low to mid 20's.

Guys, the TOTAL precipitation forecast for our Area is 1.95" of Liquid. Since we are not expecting any snow accumulations, or major ice accumulations, this will be 2" of RAIN. Ground that is frozen does NOT soak up rain. THIS WILL FLOOD! BE CAREFUL ON THE ROADS AND DRIVING!!!

MAPS VERY IMPORTANT, TAKE A LOOK!!!

BE SAFE AND HAVE A GOOD NIGHT FOLKS!