Wednesday Evening Weather Update - Winter Storm coming!

-
Updated: 0117z/21:17/09:17PM

----------------------------------FORECAST----------------------------------

TONIGHT - Lows in the low teens, clear, guys the clear spots and brisk wind will keep things nice n crisp and cold tonight!

THURSDAY - Highs in the low to mid 30's MAYBE just maybe up to 40° for some, clear and less windy.

FRIDAY - Cloudy temperatures in the low 30's, snow beginning between 1 and 3pm as of now as the storm approaches, snow will probably have a bit of a hard time sticking at first. Snow continuing through the afternoon into the night.

SATURDAY - Any snow will have ended overnight, total accumulations on the map below. Temperatures in the low to mid 40's.

--------------------------FORECAST DISCUSSION------------------------

A disturbance in the plains will continue to drop rain over the southern Plains and Southeast tonight and tomorrow, and at the same time NRG will drop down from Canada, developing our storm in the Carolina's region Thursday night into Friday. WHERE this NRG hooks up with our developing storm will dictate the exact track and whether or not it is able to make the left turn up the Coast and closer to us. FOR NOW, THOUGH this storm should make it to the Lower Hudson Valley, as it will likely interact with a very strong upper low feature around Hudson Bay...Now, that being said we will have to watch how much moisture makes it up into the area and how close to the coast the coastal low forms. Some of the models have it "reforming" into a nice and more powerful low off the LI coast, which would throw precip back. IN ANY CASE, the low is a CLOSED LOOP low, meaning most of the Precip will be N/NW of the track of the low. Right now this is just to the south of us - it would not take much for it to come a bit north.
Snow will be heavy, as the temperatures are marginally cold enough to support snow. Timing is Friday afternoon through late Friday night for all points east of NYC.

FIRST CALL MAP BELOW.

Longer range outlook, still looking to stay well below average temperatures for the next several weeks, and plenty of storm options. Whether or not they are rain or snow or both is still to be decided, but definitely storms on the horizon.

Dillon and I will be posting a winter Recap in the next few days and then in a couple weeks our spring outlook.

hAVE A GREAT NIGHT!

Monday Evening Weather Update

-
Updated: 0105z/21:05/09:05PM

------------------------------------FORECAST--------------------------------

TONIGHT - Lows in the upper 30's to low 40°, cloudy with a few spotty showers after midnight as a vigorous cold front begins to move through.

TUESDAY - Warmer ahead of the cold front highs near 50° maybe a spotty shower or two, THEN as the cold front comes through - could we be looking at some snow showers or a snow squall? MAYBE...its a very vigurous change in the atmosphere. 

WEDNESDAY - Windy behind the cold front, pressure gradient very big as a wave develops offshore and High pressure settles over us. Cold too highs in mid 30's. Typical of mid to late January.

THURSDAY - Highs near 40° Mostly sunny.

--------------------------FORECAST DISCUSSION------------------------

FUN FACT: Some Places in Northern Kansas and Nebraska reached into the 80's and 90's today! Will we ever reach that? Well at least not for the next month!

A vigorous cold front will move through late tonight into tomorrow afternoon, with a small wave developing off of it. Some rain showers and some possible snow showers on and off then as the wave deepens offshore, winds will kick up from the pressure gradient.

NOW, I know A LOT of you will hate to hear this - but yes, snow is in the realms of possibility, big possibility for Friday into Saturday. Timing, precipitation, amounts, all that stuff is still to be decided. BUT, all signs are pointing to the possibility of a nice big storm. 

The NAO and AO will go negative, as will the EPO while the WPO will be near nuetral and the PNA positive. THIS IS EXACTLY WHAT WE WANT FOR A BIG STORM! Blocking should set up over Greenland, and that will help slow down the storm coming. Now the track will be very dependent as that will decide the precip type and amounts for us. Right now we want it a bit north to give us heavier snow. 

?????????P.S. - JUST A HINT, OR OBSERVATION, BUT Comparing the data for this potential storm, to that of the March 1993 Blizzard - they are looking very similar. ??????

HAVE A GREAT NIGHT GUYS!

Tuesday Evening Winter Storm Update

Updated: 0030z/19:30/07:31PM

*****Emergency Alert for the Period NOW until Tomorrow Morning*****

Guys Obviously this front thump of snow has overachieved in everyway. Currently recording almost 5" at my house, and a friend in White Plains has the same recording. White Plains Airport is at 4.9" officially as of 7pm.

Please, please be careful - now we are changing over to an Ice/Freezing Rain/Sleet Mix and it will stay like this for the next SEVERAL hours before changing to plain rain around or after midnight.

Anymore Accumulations should be between 1-3" of this mess, maybe a bit more.

FORECAST

TONIGHT - ICE/freezing rain/sleet/snow continuing before changing over around midnight to rain. Additional Accumulations 1-3" if not more. Temps around freezing.

TOMORROW - Rain and dense fog, rain may be heavy at times in the morning, but doubtfull. The GROUND will be below freezing so WATCH out for Ice!!!!! GONNA be a really MESSY morning.
A lull in the precipitation as cold front comes through and storm pulls away, our second wave forming.

TOMORROW NIGHT - Rain turning to ice to all snow by midnight and continuing, temps in the mid to high 20's.

THURSDAY - Snow in the morning through afternoon tapering off in the evening. Could be significant accumulations. Temps in the high 20's.

FRIDAY - Frigid watch for rapid freezup highs in the low 20's.

FORECAST DISCUSSION

A rapidly deepening low pressure system will continue to move across Southern Canada and take over with rain after midnight tonight. As it pulls out tomorrow a wave will form off the bucket loads of moisture along the frontal boundary (cold/warm air) Where this frontal boundary will determine the exact trend of the heaviest snows, but it seems that the Arctic Air coming behind it will be enough to suppress the axis of heaviest precipitation along NYC to Philly. We would once again be on the northern edge of the heavy (ish) snows. Right now I am calling for 3-5" with a possibility of going down and up. Dillon thinks 1-2". What should be noted is that as the storm intensifies, much like today, the snow ratios will bump up especially from the air rapidly cooling. We can expect 12:1 ratios and maybe 15:1 if lucky. Also keep in mind that the heaviest snows are NYC to Philly - NYC is less then 30 miles away. It would really not take MUCH for us to get in the heavier snows again. An example is that Yonkers has a Winter Storm Warning for 4-8" of snow, and here in Irvington we have no warning and just 2-4" of snow. Not far to move!. however as of now this is the forecast. You could say Dillon scored a "coup" I still have my doubts though!

This second half of the storm should continue into Thursday afternoon and evening. Initial first call snow map is below.

Guys, even if we do not get 8-12" with the next batch of snow - it will be very icey, very dangerous tomorrow into Thursday afternoon. This is NOT a storm to take lightly, especially because of its long duration.

Ok thats it for now! Be back later if need be

 

smile emoticon

********MONDAY NIGHT 7:30 PM UPDATE**********

I hope your vacations were great! I know I had a fabulous time in Jamaica! AND, Dillon and I ARE VERY HAPPY with our forecast for the weekend storm - WE KNEW it would be colder and snowier...fell right on target with what we said it would do!

****************

Absolutely the COLDEST air of the season (This time I am pretty sure it WILL be the coldest!) coming tonight into tomorrow - tonight's lows WILL LIKELY be in the NEGATIVES for almost everybody in New England/NE north of NYC. 

***************

Right now looking like we have dodged 2 possible snowstorms for this week, although there is still a possibility of them coming back west on the models - WE shall wait and see!

**************

Snow showers/Light snow possible Thursday night??? It is a possibility!

**************

BRIEF warmup next Monday? We could get up to 40 or above for a couple hours! ;) then back to cold! A possible storm as well in that time period early next week.

**************

TONIGHT - Frigid from -3° here in Irvington to possibly below -10° in parts of Western NY and New England. Clear.

TUESDAY - 7am Temps COULD BE -15° WITHOUT THE WINDCHILL! Then it will warm up to the balmy low to mid teens IF THAT MUCH. 

WEDNESDAY - Highs in the mid to upper 20's maybe a passing snow shower in the afternoon. Otherwise Partly cloudy/sunny.

THURSDAY - Chance of light snow/snow showers in the morning through afternoon and evening maybe into the night...Little or no accumulation at this point, Highs near 20°.

HAVE A GREAT NIGHT GUYS!

********6PM THURSDAY UPDATE********

BRUTAL, BRUTAL COLD COMING GUYS!! Highs tonight JUST ABOVE 0°, and around 5-10° in the City, plus winds gusting UP to 40mph will yield to windchills from -10 to -30°...LIKELY, real feel temps will stay around -15° TONIGHT, AND into TOMORROW as temperatures tomorrow BARELY get up to 15°, windchill's staying in the negatives.

GUYS, this means Frostbite in UNDER 5 minutes...KEEP JACKETS ON, KEEP GLOVES ON, BUNDLE UP IT WILL BE FREEZZZING!!!!

*************************

WINTER STORM Coming for Saturday Afternoon through to Sunday Morning. The STORM, PLUS WIND, PLUS THE FRIGID TEMPS WILL GIVE A DANGEROUS SITUATION, WITH POSSIBLE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS DURING THE NIGHT, ESPECIALLY Out on Eastern Long Island, and Massachusetts, Boston, up through coastal Maine.

YES BOSTON...Another foot of snow heading your way!

GUYS, even with low(er) amounts of snow near NYC, the FRIGID temperatures will lead to 20:1 or more snow ratios...meaning the normal 3-5" becomes 6-10"+...THIS will EASILY Occur I believe.

Models have been trending a bit further SW today, and bringing the heaviest snows a bit closer...lets see if this continues, if not, an EARLY, GUYS EARLY, Estimate at snow amounts for NYC Metro area and Northern Suburbs is 3-6", which could EASILY become 6-12" with higher ratios if they hold.

************************

ANOTHER, More potent storm potentially coming for Tuesday, still early to tell specifics

************************

TONIGHT - FRIGID lows near 0°, windchills -10 to -30° even down to -40° as you get NW of NYC. Clearing out

FRIDAY - FRIGID, BRUTALLY COLD, Highs barely reaching 15°, Windchill factor well below 0°. Clear skies, windy 10-20mph

SATURDAY - Highs in the mid to high 20's maybe making it to 30°. Light snow developing in the afternoon and continuing heavier at night. Temps during the night getting colder to near 0° as another arctic blast comes through.

SUNDAY - Light snow in the morning ending likely, Highs FREEZING in the single digits to low teens. Cloudy and clearing up probably.

***GUYS, NOTE THAT THE FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND IS NOT FINAL AS THERE ARE STILL DETAILS TO BE WORKED OUT FOR THE STORM.***

**************9:00PM UPDATE TUESDAY NIGHT*************

SO...We got several events coming up! First one for Thursday, Likely will form too far to the East for anybody to get anything of big significance. Right now likely 1-3" Thursday afternoon through Friday Morning. WE WILL Keep you posted if this changes. First snow map tomorrow night for the event.

Second event for the weekend - still far out so nothing definite, but the models are definitely showing something forming that COULD be QUITE BIG if it forms right. Picture below showing it.

Third event would be Early to middle of Next week during our vacation. Still to early to tell anything more with confidence.

Fourth event would be later in the week after the third event. Again still early to say ANYTHING with confidence - for all we know it could not even happen.

***********************
EXTREME, AND I DO MEAN EXTREME COLD COMING FOLKS...Just to give you an idea - the models depicting temperature ANOMOLIES (So +/- of average) are saying on average the next 16 days and if not more will be -3 to -16° BELOW average!!! OR MORE!!

FIRST SHOT OF THE COLDEST AIR will be Thursday through the weekend. Folks, Lows in the negatives are possible and Highs in the single digits to low teens....get ready for the cold!!!

************************
TONIGHT - Cold and clear Highs in the low to mid teens, maybe 20° in NYC progressively colder as you get up to Boston and N/NW of NYC.

WEDNESDAY - Colder then today, Highs in the High 20's maybe low 30's, sunny.

THURSDAY - Mostly cloudy with light snow developing in the afternoon, Highs probably right below freezing. Snow will continue on and off through the night, most likely 1-3" with localized 2-4" possible.

FRIDAY - Maybe some light snow in the morning, then clearing out, COLLLDDD first SHOT of BRUTAL COLD AIR THURSDAY NIGHT! Highs BARELY REACHING 20° Friday. A Brisk wind will keep the windchills very low was well!!!

*************************

Have a great night guys!!

********5PM SATURDAY UPDATE*********

Ok, Dillon and I have both been out this weekend in DC and Boston, so it is hard to post - we will do short updates for the Sunday-Monday storm.

THIS STORM IS LOOKING A BIT LIKE LAST WEEKS STORM GUYS.

Models have been trending a bit south today, we shall see with the 18z runs if this holds true.

Right now heaviest snows again in eastern New England and interior NY. BOSTON could receive up to 2'!!!!!!!!!

TIMING - Late Sunday afternoon/evening into Monday night.

Accumulations - CANNOT MAKE A MAP NOW, SO- NYC and south to central NJ, 1-3" at best. SIGNIFICANT ice problem is possible. NYC To i287/ Briarcliff, 3-6" with 4-8" localized amounts - this follows through southern CT/northern PA along the border and providence RI. North of all this, 6-10" localized 8-12" amounts. Boston to Albany and north about 100-150 miles ish 12-18" localized higher amounts of 18-24".

ANY movement north or south even 20-50 miles will have HUGE impacts on temps and accumulations. 20-30 miles south puts US in irvington in the 6-10" range, 20-30 miles north and we get nada.

Icing will be a slight problem between NYC and I287 as well.

It's going to be a messy, icky storm, much like last weeks storm.

More updates later from either Dillon or I. 

HAVE A GREAT NIGHT! Any questions ask in the comments or pm me or Dillon.

*******7:15PM UPDATE THURSDAY********

Oki Doki, We got ALOT going on over the next week or so.

- Sunday through Tuesday storm is an over runner, meaning (And THANK you to the teacher who taught Dillon and me all this!) We have a a S/SW flow in the Jet, and cA (Continental Arctic) airmass Flowing East. This is the overrunning part as you get Cold air at the lower altitudes and warm air on top in the Upper Altitudes. We get Precip then, even though this is not a warm front. SO...THIS IS HOW OUR STORM WILL FORM ON SUNDAY-TUESDAY! Problem is, wherever that Cold Boundary sets up (N/S) will determine where the snows are. RIGHT now, it is setting up more or less just to the south/over NYC...meaning another huge battle between warm and cold, snow/ice/rain. We shall see where this goes, but I have a big hunch that the boundary will set up farther to the south and give us some more snow. A difference of 50-100, EVEN 25-50 MILES could make a HUGE difference for us - like the last storm.

More updates to come. At this point though, we are still getting a good amount of snow, mostly a steady light snow lasting 36 hours or more possibly.

***************************
-BRUTAL, and I mean brutal brutal cold coming this weekend...as you saw today temps dropped 20-30° for some from morning to now. This drop will CONTINUE and we will get DEEP into the negatives tomorrow morning with the windchill. Some places even -20° with windchill.

- COLD lets up a teensy bit, but barely and we go through the weekend still with very very cold temps. PEOPL, MORE COLD AIR on the way after this.

***************************

**************************FORECAST****************************

TONIGHT - Clear, Temperatures continuing to drop to about 4-6° in NYC to Westchester, 0-4° Northern Westchester and Rockland and Southern CT, then negatives as you get further North. Windchills NEGATIVE from -5 to -20° or less.

TOMORROW - COLDDDD in the morning windchill values in the NEGATIVES, warming up to the balmy High teens to VERY VERY low 20's

SATURDAY - Chance of some light snow in the afternoon, probably not much accumulation if any. Highs near 30° and cloudy.

SUNDAY - Light snow showers/snow developing afternoon/evening and continuing through the night, first part of the storm. More on this later. Highs in the mid to high 20's.

MAP SHOWING TEMPS WHEN WE WAKE UP TOMORROW MORNING PEOPLE - FRIGIDDDDD

*********TUESDAY EVENING UPDATIO********

AFTERNOON FOLKS, Hope you had a great weekend and fun snowdayyy :) Now get ready for more! ;)

BULLETINS:

1) Storm for Thursday/Friday which was supposed to be a combination of a clipper and Coastal storm forming will form TOO far East, leaving us with just a small clipper, 1-2" AT BEST FOR NOW. Everybody missing out on this storm - maybe the cape gets 3-6" thats it ***FOR NOW, THIS COULD CHANGE***

2) SUNDAY-MONDAY Still on the models as a potential major storm so keep an eye out.

3) RECORD cold coming over the weekend - if the models are correct SUBZERO temperatures possible WITHOUT the windchills

4) MORE storms on the horizon after Sunday/Monday System 

5) BRUTAL BRUTAL COLD ON THE WAY...REALLY 

**************FORECAST**************

TONIGHT - Clear highs in the low to mid teens.

WEDNESDAY - MAYBE OUR WARMEST DAY FOR THE NEXT WEEK? Warm front passing in the morning will spawn some Snow Showers, Not much accumulation if any, Highs reaching near or around 40° near the coast, and Mid 30's to HIGH 20's for the rest of the NE and New England..NOT FOR LONG THOUGH PEOPLE!

THURSDAY - Arctic Front on the move will plunge temperatures as the day goes on, Highs starting in the low to mid 20's will QUICKLY drop to teens and maybe single digits EVEN negatives by nightfall even down to the coast, BRUTAL COLD BY NIGHTFALL.!!!! LIGHT SNOW during the day on and off, ONLY A COATING TO AN INCH AT THIS POINT - THIS MIGHT CHANGE SO KEEP AN EYE OUT!!!! 

FRIDAY - COOLLDDDD BRUTAL COLD! Highs in the Single digits to MID/UPPER TEENS!!! COLD COLD COLD!! Partly Cloudy otherwise.

******IRVINGTON MODEL UN PEOPLES!!!, WEATHER WISE, LOOKING OK FOR NOW FOR OUR TRIP - BUT BUT BUT, COLD MAN IT IS GOING TO BE BRUTALLY COLD, WARMEST PROBABLY IN UPPER TEENS, BUT IT COULD GET DOWN WELL INTO THE NEGATIVES WITH THE WINDCHILL...PACK WARMMMLYYYY AND LOTS OF GLOVES. REMEMBER, THERE IS 4-5' OF SNOW PACK UP THERE - THIS WILL REFRIGERATE THE AIR, SO IT MAY BE COLDER THEN EVEN THE MODELS SAY. ************

**********10:45 AM UPDATE ON WINTER STORM LINUS [#LINUS]*********

VERY VERY HAPPY WITH THE FORECAST THAT DILLON AND ME PUT OUT LAST NIGHT, VERY HAPPY. 7.58" SO FAR, NO RAIN YET JUST SLEET AND ICE AND SNOW. 

The storm ended up coming in a tad weaker and was not able to push that Arctic HP as much away, therefore cold air lasted longer.

SO WHATS NEXT?

We have a Secondary low trying to/succesfully ish forming off the Delmarva Peninsula (Well really between Jersey Coast and Delmarva) and THIS will drain some more cold air south and fuel a redevelopment of precipitation as the two fronts collide LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

SO...SLEET, ICE, SNOW will CONTINUE for the next few hours AND THEN a POTENTIAL HEAVY BAND OF SNOW WILL DEVELOP AFTER LUNCH AS THE BACKSIDE OF ALL THIS MOISTURE WRAPS AROUND and the Secondary low moves NE. 

REST OF TODAY - Snow/Sleet/Ice continuing and then turning back to an all snow solution after lunch for a TIME. SNOW COULD BE HEAVY. Additional accumulations of 1-4" ARE POSSIBLE as that heavy band comes through, WE WILL UPDATE ACCORDINGLY.
Temperatures in the High 20's in NYC to Low 20's in Westchester and PROGRESSIVELY colder as you get N/NW/NE of NYC. IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS - MORE OF A RAIN/SLEET MIXTURE.

FLASH FREEZE IN EFFECT FOR THIS EVENING, TEMPERATURES DROPPING 20-30° FOR SOME TO LOW TO MID TEENS OR UPPER SINGLE DIGITS. ALL STANDING WATER, MELTED PRECIP, UNTREATED ROADS, ETC WILL FREEZE

All precipitation will taper off this evening into nighttime and gradually clear by midnight.

PLACES SOUTH OF YONKERS, COASTAL CT, LONG ISLAND...YOU WILL HAVE A POTENTIAL COMPLETE MESS OF ICE ON YOUR HANDS AS TEMPERATURES RAPIDLY DROP AND MOISTURE MOVES IN, PRECIP KEEPS FALLING. BE CAREFUL

Additional Snow accumulation map below.

ANY QUESTIONS? IF SO POST IT BELOW IN THE COMMENTS OR MESSAGE ME OR DILLON.

**********FRIDAY NIGHT DISCUSSION - WINTER STORM AHEAD FOR SUPERBOWL FOLKS!**********

*******FAIRLY CONFIDENT IN A DECENT WINTER STORM, ALL SNOW FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT******
HOW MUCH SNOW? WELL HERE IS THE TRICKY PART! IT IS GOING TO BE BRUTALLY COLD FOLKS, AND THIS STORM IS GONNA BE EVEN COLDER. DO NOT BE SURPRISED IF 15-20:1 RATIOS OF SNOW ARE PRESENT. FOR NOW, I WILL STICK WITH 10:1 RATIOS - BUT AN AVERAGE OF THE MODELS WOULD BE 
8-12", A MAX WOULD BE 12-15" AND A MINIMUM 4".

HINTING - WITH HIGHER RATIOS WE COULD BE LOOKING AT
PROBABLE 12-15", MAX 18-24"(BUT I THINK THATS A FAR STRETCH).

A storm will move across the Midwest tonight into tomorrow and form a slightly stronger low as it comes out of the Ohio Valley. FOLKS, TRACK AS ALWAYS IS VERY IMPORTANT! A MOVE SOUTH 50 MILES WOULD CUT OUR SNOW IN HALF, A MOVE NORTH 50 MILES COULD MIX SOME YOU-KNOW WHAT IN!!!! 

WE ALL KNOW HOW THE MODELS ARE...SINCE THE LAST STORM.

Pictures are worth a thousand words so PLEASE LOOK AT THEM FOR MORE INFORMATION ON THE STORM!

TIMING, AS OF NOW, WOULD BE MID SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...SO RIGHT AS SUPERBOWL PARTIES ENDING!

OTHER NEWS: BRUTAL, I MEAN BRUTAL COLD COMING TONIGHT WITH BRUTAL WINDCHILLS FAR INTO THE NEGATIVES. PLEASE BE CAREFUL FOLKS!

****************FORECAST*******************

TONIGHT - COLD COLD FRIGID. Lows in the NEGATIVES, -15 to -20° BELOW with the WINDCHILLS, Otherwise Around 1° PROGRESSIVELY COLDER AS YOU GET NORTH AND WEST. WINDS 20-30MPH GUSTS TO 35MPH

TOMORROW - COLD! Highs in the LOW 20's, MORNING HIGHS IN THE NEGATIVES! ENJOY THE SUNNINESS - WONT LAST FOR LONG!

SUNDAY - Increasing Clouds as the day goes on Highs in the LOW 30's around 30-32° Getting COLDER as the day goes on probably, SNOW arriving LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AROUND MIDNIGHT OR SO...MAYBE EARLIER FINAL DETAILS TOMORROW.

MONDAY - Snow Continuing throughout the day is probable. Highs in the low 20's probable.

FIRST CALL MAPS BELOW FOR SUNDAY STORM

TEMPERATURE MAPS AS WELL - LOOK AT THAT COLD!!!!!!

WINDY TOO FOLKS!

**********THURSDAY EVENING UPDATIO**********

A nice and healthy clipper will start to move in tonight spreading Light snow in the area bringing an inch to two inches for us, while areas to the North and NE will get slightly more, 3-4" on top of some areas who got 30"+ from the Blizzard. Redevelopment/Intensification of the low as it hits the Water in the Gulf of Maine will throw some precip back into New England giving Areas just north of Boston (Gloucester/Amsebury area) a good extra 2-3" on top of the 3" from the initial snow of the clipper tomorrow and into tomorrow night. MAINE People - watch out another 6-12" or more coming your way as the low redevelops and forms a closed loop, the negative trough will bring a good amount of Atlantic Moisture up into the area and fuel the snow.

****UPDATED SNOW MAP BELOW FOR THE CLIPPER***

Sunday to Monday night STORM STILL WAFFLING ON THE MODELS....So no definitive ideas yet. The models HAVE been trending with a more southerly track putting Places north of NYC on the edge of snowfall, 3-6"....STILL TO EARLY TO MAKE DEFINITIVE FORECAST THOUGH FOLKS, SO DO NOT WORRY YET.

Another System on the Horizon for next Thursday. Still unclear what will happen with it, so no worries.

************FORECAST**************

TONIGHT - COLDD, in the low to mid teens, maybe low 20's along the coast. Clipper arrives in a few hours, light snow/snow showers, another burst around daybreak possible so watch for rush hour tomorrow. SEE SNOW MAP.

TOMORROW - Some lingering light snow/snow showers in the morning tapering off and skies become partly cloudy to sunny Highs in the mid 20's - COLD SHOT TOMORROW NIGHT, GUYS BRUTAL BRUTAL COLD!!!

SATURDAY - Highs in the low to mid 20's, Sunny, brisk wind in the morning probably will die as the day goes on. 

THANKS AGAIN TO WEATHERBELL AND RYAN FOR LETTING US UTILIZE THESE AMAZING MODELS!

*******TUESDAY NIGHT UPDATE, BIG ONE**********

OK, COUPLE OF THINGS GOING ON HERE....AS OF NOW THIS IS WHERE WE STAND:

1. I DO NOT THINK CLIPPER TOMORROW WARRANTS A SNOW MAP...AS OF NOW. HOWEVER, IF I SEE THAT WE DO NEED ONE TOMORROW I WILL LET YOU KNOW - IT JUST IS SO WEAK AND TO THE SOUTH OF US, The energy will transfer very quickly to a developing coastal storm (missing us)...I WOULD BE SURPRISED IF WE GET AN INCH AT THIS POINT....THERE ARE POTENTIAL WAYS THIS COULD CHANGE - BUT THE MODELS SEEM PRETTY CONCISE AT THIS POINT IN TIME, and My own thinking does too.

2. We have a VERY possible major storm for this weekend, Saturday Night into Sunday. NOW, at this point...IT COULD ALL CHANGE...I mean the way the models have been acting, tomorrow we could wake up and its gone - but...as of now, it is on the 3 Major models...and all more or less in consensus. So...not going to present specifics, but general Idea:

A pocket of energy will cross into California over the next couple of days and make its way into the gulf where it will form a fairly strong low pressure System. At the same time a fairly strong upper level disturbance will be crossing Southern Canada. Energy will "drop" from this disturbance as our storm moves north from the gulf and will help it rapidly intensify off the Carolina's Coast. It will LIKELY take a NE track while rapidly intensifying off of Long Island and up through the Cape/Nantucket. This storm HAS the potential to be very strong, big winds, and possible big snows...all dependent on its track. We do want it to move west a teeny bit...but NOT too much. We do NOT want it to go east.

So, we will keep the updates coming on this! Models are hinting at an event next week...that's all for now on that. FOR THOSE OF YOU WHO ARE MORE INTO THE SPECIFICS, THE PICTURES POSTED BELOW EXPLAIN IT IN DETAIL!.

***********ALL MAPS/PICTURES COURTESY OF WEATHERBELL/RYAN MAUE*********

****************************FORECAST***********************

WEDNESDAY- Highs in the High 20's to maybe low 30's...Cloudy becoming cloudier, light snow/snow showers developing in the afternoon/late afternoon continuing through the night on and off. Accumulations a dusting to an inch IF we are lucky at this point

THURSDAY - Highs in the low to mid 30's, Snow showers in the morning MAYBE will lead to mostly sunny skies...few clouds probably too.

FRIDAY - Highs in the High 20's to low 30's, partly cloudy on and off.

CHECK BACK FOR UPDATES ON THE POSSIBLE STORM!

********MONDAY NIGHT UPDATE********

*****CONTINUE TO WATCH OUT FOR ANY STANDING WATER FREEZING UP TONIGHT, AND ON UNTREATED SURFACES******

So what do we have going this week!?...Read below and find out smile emoticon

- Clipper will march through the region Wednesday Afternoon through early Thursday Morning. Exact track is still on the table somewhat for Snowfall amounts. No doubt that we will get some SNOW, the question is how much at this point, as is usual with clippers we likely wont know until right as it happens, so keep an eye on the page!

- Hints at a major pattern change this week to the "Snowy" pattern we have all been waiting for. Again the way this winter has been, we could see this change...but I have a feeling not this time.

- The models are HINTING at some sort of Major storm for next week, Monday/Tuesday, again can change any minute..but it is on the table for something to happen, what is not known yet as it is still far out.

- SO did you like the warmup? What you dont remember it!? Well it happened!!!! Get ready to go back into cold cold.

************************FORECAST**************************

TUESDAY - Highs in the low to mid 30's, partly cloudy and winds diminishing from today.

WEDNESDAY - Highs in the High 20's to very low 30's MAYBE. Snow showers/light snow developing in evening and lasting throughout the night into Thursday Morning. This is all I am going to say right now. First precipitation map to come out tomorrow night.
THURSDAY - Highs in the low 30's, snowshowers/light snow in the morning will give way to partly cloudy skies. Maybe a bit of wind.

FRIDAY - Sunny in the High 20's to low 30's Maybe.

*******EVENING UPDATE*******

Rain will continue for the next 4-5 hours and WILL PROBABLY BE HEAVY FOR A GOOD CHUNK OF THAT TIME. Would not be surprised if we see another 1/2" of rain by the time this is over.

Cold air will sweep in on the backside of the system bringing in cold and dry air. Because of the "DRY" aspect of this air, I doubt we will be seeing the possible end as snow period I talked about last night - MAYBE a few flurries. Should be out of here by Midnight at the latest.

Temperatures will dip back into the mid to high 20's tonight...BE CAREFUL..ALL OF THAT STANDING WATER WILL FREEZE UP!!!
Looking at a VERY POSSIBLE decent Clipper for Wednesday - Will have to wait and see how this shapes up.

Some models indicating a return of the cold in a BIG way - watch out.

Cya folks be safe!!!

************EXTREMELY IMPORTANT UPDATE FOLKS, PLEASE READ*************

EXACTLY WHAT I SAID YESTERDAY WOULD HAPPEN, IS HAPPENING. EVEN THOUGH WE HAVE RAIN FALLING, THE GROUND IS COLD ENOUGH THAT IT IS FREEZING ON CONTACT.

I JUST SPENT THE LAST HOUR GETTING MY MOMS CAR UP OUR DRIVEWAY BECAUSE OF THE 1/8" THICK LAYER OF ICE THAT IS ON IT.

THE ROADS ARE SLIPPERY, DILLON REPORTS TO ME THAT THE TACONIC IS CLOSED.

DO NOT TRAVEL, JUST DONT. NOT WORTH IT.

FLOOD ADVISORY WILL LIKELY GO UP LATER, BUT IF NOT...JUST KNOW WE HAVE SOME HEAVY HEAVY RAIN HEADING OUR WAY AND IT WILL NOT BE SOAKED UP ON FROZEN GROUND - IT WILL FLOOD.

TRUST DILLON AND I ON THIS. PLEASE.

Latest radar ----> http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/northeast.php

*******SATURDAY EVENING UPDATE, STORM DISCUSSION!**********

****ISSUING A HEAVY RAIN/FLOODING WARNING FOR SUNDAY MIDDAY THROUGH EVENING*******

****ISSUING A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN/MAYBE SNOW/SNIZZLE FOR SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MIDDAY****
*****ISSUING A POSSIBLE, POSSIBLE PERIOD OF SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT AS COLD AIR SWEEPS BACK IN - COULD BE MODERATE FOR 2-4 HOURS, ***IF IT HAPPENS, ONLY IF******
As a very strong upper level disturbance swings through Southern Canada, some of the energy from that will drop down and form a small wave off the edge of a cold front off the coast of the Carolina's....this wave will move NE following the Eastern Seaboard and intensify, and phase its energy as it moves over Long Island/ Southern New England. As it intensifies over S.E. N.E it will jog east a bit...NOW, Dillon and I are going on a hunch here - as it jogs east, it will allow more cold air to infiltrate, and what we think may happen is a BRIEF, 2-4 hours MAX period of snow from NYC/SUBURBS and NE as the precipitation field is thrown back a little bit. NOW, Am I expecting any significant accumulation? NO....is it possible that we do get SOME accumulation? YES! Only time will tell, so we will update on this particular issue tomorrow.

Other problems with this system, and it is illustrated below on the maps, We ONCE again have below freezing temperatures to deal with at the surface, and on the surface..but then we have this NASTY layer of warm air centered around 925mB that will keep the snow from staying snow as it falls, because if you think about it - basically a sandwhich, COLD - WARM - COLD...very frusterating, but hey its the only weather we have lets love it, as Joe Bastardi always says....SO WHAT DOES THIS MEAN? WELL...Freezing rain will be an IMPORTANT feature of this system as it comes in the morning....
I think enough said...here is our Forecast:

TONIGHT - Clear skies will become overcast towards dawn, temps in the low to mid 20's.

TOMORROW - Rain Showers/Freezing rain, and possibly some snow mixing in the morning will evolve into a steady and MOST PROBABLY HEAVY Rain in the afternoon - GUYS BE CAREFUL! 2" OF RAIN ON FROZEN GROUND WILL FLOOD AND NOT SOAK UP INTO THE GROUND! PLEASE!. Temperatures steady in the mid to upper 30's...I DOUBT we will get past 40°. Also, DO NOT be surprised if you see/hear lightning/thunder.

TOMORROW NIGHT- Rain will taper off in the evening, and WE MIGHT, POSSIBLY END as a BRIEF period of moderate snow as the cold air infiltrates in and the precipitation begins to move out. Temperatures in the low to mid 20's.

Guys, the TOTAL precipitation forecast for our Area is 1.95" of Liquid. Since we are not expecting any snow accumulations, or major ice accumulations, this will be 2" of RAIN. Ground that is frozen does NOT soak up rain. THIS WILL FLOOD! BE CAREFUL ON THE ROADS AND DRIVING!!!

MAPS VERY IMPORTANT, TAKE A LOOK!!!

BE SAFE AND HAVE A GOOD NIGHT FOLKS!