Tuesday Evening Winter Storm Update

Updated: 0030z/19:30/07:31PM

*****Emergency Alert for the Period NOW until Tomorrow Morning*****

Guys Obviously this front thump of snow has overachieved in everyway. Currently recording almost 5" at my house, and a friend in White Plains has the same recording. White Plains Airport is at 4.9" officially as of 7pm.

Please, please be careful - now we are changing over to an Ice/Freezing Rain/Sleet Mix and it will stay like this for the next SEVERAL hours before changing to plain rain around or after midnight.

Anymore Accumulations should be between 1-3" of this mess, maybe a bit more.

FORECAST

TONIGHT - ICE/freezing rain/sleet/snow continuing before changing over around midnight to rain. Additional Accumulations 1-3" if not more. Temps around freezing.

TOMORROW - Rain and dense fog, rain may be heavy at times in the morning, but doubtfull. The GROUND will be below freezing so WATCH out for Ice!!!!! GONNA be a really MESSY morning.
A lull in the precipitation as cold front comes through and storm pulls away, our second wave forming.

TOMORROW NIGHT - Rain turning to ice to all snow by midnight and continuing, temps in the mid to high 20's.

THURSDAY - Snow in the morning through afternoon tapering off in the evening. Could be significant accumulations. Temps in the high 20's.

FRIDAY - Frigid watch for rapid freezup highs in the low 20's.

FORECAST DISCUSSION

A rapidly deepening low pressure system will continue to move across Southern Canada and take over with rain after midnight tonight. As it pulls out tomorrow a wave will form off the bucket loads of moisture along the frontal boundary (cold/warm air) Where this frontal boundary will determine the exact trend of the heaviest snows, but it seems that the Arctic Air coming behind it will be enough to suppress the axis of heaviest precipitation along NYC to Philly. We would once again be on the northern edge of the heavy (ish) snows. Right now I am calling for 3-5" with a possibility of going down and up. Dillon thinks 1-2". What should be noted is that as the storm intensifies, much like today, the snow ratios will bump up especially from the air rapidly cooling. We can expect 12:1 ratios and maybe 15:1 if lucky. Also keep in mind that the heaviest snows are NYC to Philly - NYC is less then 30 miles away. It would really not take MUCH for us to get in the heavier snows again. An example is that Yonkers has a Winter Storm Warning for 4-8" of snow, and here in Irvington we have no warning and just 2-4" of snow. Not far to move!. however as of now this is the forecast. You could say Dillon scored a "coup" I still have my doubts though!

This second half of the storm should continue into Thursday afternoon and evening. Initial first call snow map is below.

Guys, even if we do not get 8-12" with the next batch of snow - it will be very icey, very dangerous tomorrow into Thursday afternoon. This is NOT a storm to take lightly, especially because of its long duration.

Ok thats it for now! Be back later if need be

 

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**********8:00PM UPDATE SUNDAY************

Guys, this is an extremely tricky storm to forecast - so bear with us. We are sorry for the lack of updates this weekend, we were both out of town and without computers - hard to do updates without them! ANYWAY, we are back so lets get to the weather!

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This storm is NOT a big snowmaker for us, rather a much BIGGER Icemaker...We are ON that line as usual though, of the cold and more snow...So, 20-30 mile changes - EVEN LESS then that, COULD MEAN BIG changes for us.

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TIMING - Freezing rain/sleet will break out tonight if not before midnight by midnight, continue through the morning and change over to snow late morning/midday. Light Snow will continue through the afternoon, probably not too heavy. Icing will continue as well mixing a bit with snow through the evening. It will change back to all snow and continue through Monday night ending between 1-4am or a bit before...generally very very early hours of Tuesday.

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ACCUMULATIONS 

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BIGGEST HAZARD - ICE ICE ICE....THERE IS A MUCH MUCH GREATER CHANCE OF ICE WITH THIS SYSTEM THEN LAST, BECAUSE TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE QUITE AS COLD. GROUND TEMPS HOWEVER WILL BE WELL BELOW FREEZING - WE ALL KNOW WHAT HAPPENS THEN - IT FREEZES ON CONTACT.

With Snow NOT changing over until LATER in the DAY MONDAY, and temperatures not going BELOW freezing until AFTER MIDDAY, ICING WILL BE A VERY BAD PROBLEM for the Morning commute, and EVEN the Afternoon/EVENING commute which will be EVEN MORE dangerous as it changes back to a wet, sleety, icy snow.

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Temperatures tomorrow will be JUST around or UNDER 32°, even into Upper 20's if we are lucky. North of I84, you will be mostly snow, even north of I287. Temperatures will begin to drop after lunchtime and continue dropping to low to mid 20's by nightfall - ANY Wet/melted ground will freeze up..on top of any ice that formed.

AGAIN, THIS IS NOT A BIG SNOWMAKER FOR US...MUCH MORE OF AN ICE MAKER - WHICH IS MUCH WORSE.

**********VERY IMPORTANT 5:30 AM UPDATE**********

Last night some of the models had Remy and I VERY CONCERNED that the storm was going to be further offshore and therefore we would receive a much reduced amount of snow. However, the European model, which is highly trusted among many meteorologists, has been consistent in its last four runs printing 24"+ across the area. Additionally, the model runs that were portraying a faster and more offshore system have since returned to something closer to that of the European model. 

With that being said, we will NOT make any changes as of now to our current snowfall map as we still believe everything is in place for a MAJOR blizzard. Those of you under the 18-24" range (lower Hudson Valley, NE New Jersey, Long Island, and coastal New England) should be on guard for blizzard-like conditions beginning late Monday night and continuing through the early afternoon on Tuesday. Additionally, mesoscale banding (essentially VERY heavy bands of snow) will set up somewhere across the aforementioned area, creating a "sweet spot" for snowfall (30 INCHES PLUS)... however, predicting exactly where these bands will form is nearly impossible this far in advance.

The timing of the storm has also remained the same. During the day on Monday, most areas can expect between 1-3" of snow before nightfall as the clipper arrives. Come this evening, the snow will pick up in intensity as the storm stalls and strengthens off the New Jersey coast. We are highlighting the time period from LATE MONDAY EVENING THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON as the period of the heaviest snowfall. Snowfall rates could approach FOUR INCHES PER HOUR. Tuesday evening the storm should begin to wind down with little additional accumulation. For total accumulations in your area, refer to the map below. Then it gets COLD.

Folks, this is a VERY dangerous storm. If you do not have to travel, DON'T. At the height of the storm, some roads will likely be IMPASSABLE and power outages are very possible. Make sure you are prepared with food, water, flashlights, batteries, and plenty of warm clothing/blankets. This storm will most likely go down in the record books.

************EXTREMELY IMPORTANT UPDATE FOLKS, PLEASE READ*************

EXACTLY WHAT I SAID YESTERDAY WOULD HAPPEN, IS HAPPENING. EVEN THOUGH WE HAVE RAIN FALLING, THE GROUND IS COLD ENOUGH THAT IT IS FREEZING ON CONTACT.

I JUST SPENT THE LAST HOUR GETTING MY MOMS CAR UP OUR DRIVEWAY BECAUSE OF THE 1/8" THICK LAYER OF ICE THAT IS ON IT.

THE ROADS ARE SLIPPERY, DILLON REPORTS TO ME THAT THE TACONIC IS CLOSED.

DO NOT TRAVEL, JUST DONT. NOT WORTH IT.

FLOOD ADVISORY WILL LIKELY GO UP LATER, BUT IF NOT...JUST KNOW WE HAVE SOME HEAVY HEAVY RAIN HEADING OUR WAY AND IT WILL NOT BE SOAKED UP ON FROZEN GROUND - IT WILL FLOOD.

TRUST DILLON AND I ON THIS. PLEASE.

Latest radar ----> http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/northeast.php