Wednesday Evening Weather Update - Winter Storm coming!

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Updated: 0117z/21:17/09:17PM

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TONIGHT - Lows in the low teens, clear, guys the clear spots and brisk wind will keep things nice n crisp and cold tonight!

THURSDAY - Highs in the low to mid 30's MAYBE just maybe up to 40° for some, clear and less windy.

FRIDAY - Cloudy temperatures in the low 30's, snow beginning between 1 and 3pm as of now as the storm approaches, snow will probably have a bit of a hard time sticking at first. Snow continuing through the afternoon into the night.

SATURDAY - Any snow will have ended overnight, total accumulations on the map below. Temperatures in the low to mid 40's.

--------------------------FORECAST DISCUSSION------------------------

A disturbance in the plains will continue to drop rain over the southern Plains and Southeast tonight and tomorrow, and at the same time NRG will drop down from Canada, developing our storm in the Carolina's region Thursday night into Friday. WHERE this NRG hooks up with our developing storm will dictate the exact track and whether or not it is able to make the left turn up the Coast and closer to us. FOR NOW, THOUGH this storm should make it to the Lower Hudson Valley, as it will likely interact with a very strong upper low feature around Hudson Bay...Now, that being said we will have to watch how much moisture makes it up into the area and how close to the coast the coastal low forms. Some of the models have it "reforming" into a nice and more powerful low off the LI coast, which would throw precip back. IN ANY CASE, the low is a CLOSED LOOP low, meaning most of the Precip will be N/NW of the track of the low. Right now this is just to the south of us - it would not take much for it to come a bit north.
Snow will be heavy, as the temperatures are marginally cold enough to support snow. Timing is Friday afternoon through late Friday night for all points east of NYC.

FIRST CALL MAP BELOW.

Longer range outlook, still looking to stay well below average temperatures for the next several weeks, and plenty of storm options. Whether or not they are rain or snow or both is still to be decided, but definitely storms on the horizon.

Dillon and I will be posting a winter Recap in the next few days and then in a couple weeks our spring outlook.

hAVE A GREAT NIGHT!

*****SATURDAY 10pm UPDATE - WILD WEEK AHEAD GUYS, REALLY WILD*****

FIRST, Quick moving quick hitting THUMP of snow late tomorrow afternoon through Monday late morning. A small but somewhat potent system will move through the Ohio valley tonight into tomorrow and then across the area tomorrow evening throughout the night before moving out late Monday morning. NOW, alotta the weather sites saying 1-3" or 2-4" total...GUYS Sorry BUT NOT GONNA BE THAT WAY! Rain snow as well...Nope its gonna be all snow, MAYBE a bit of ice on the backside..

SECONDLY...Mesoscale Banding - VERY important in this storm, maybe more so then in other storms. The models are showing a large amount of southerly winds (flowing to the north) on the warm side of the Arctic air boundary...the models are showing this continue as the storm moves over us. WHERE the edge of this warm wind and cold air meet BOOM thats where we will really get that thumping. NOW the models cannot accuraterly depict this, so they are saying 4-6" (.4-.6" QPF), but wherever those bands set up could easily bring that up 4-8" or 6-10"...NOW, that could be high, Dillon and I think a safe thing to assume is 4-8" for almost all north of NYC...read map to see details

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NEXT STORM...OMG so much to talk about this, but will wait until Monday to give all the details...Timing likely Tuesday night through Wednesday night maybe into Thursday morning but that could change. It would be Snow to ice to rain to ice to snow to all snow and could be a lotta snow if this holds up - models trending colder by the day! Goodbye brief warmup!

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SOO.. still slowly creeping back to normal ISH temperatures in the next couple weeks, but the models are holding fast for below average temps at least next 40 days...soo we will keep you updated!
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TONIGHT - Cold lows in low teens to around 10°, clear, but getting cloudy.

SUNDAY - Cloudy with light snow developing between 3-6pm changing to a heavier more steady snow during the late evening through the nighttime. Highs in the mid to high 20's. WATCH out for that thumping, talked about above in the afternoon.

SUNDAY NIGHT - Snow, HEAVY at times with THUMPING possible, maybe changing to ice/sleet for a brief period at the end. The storm will be outta hear by lunchtime the LATEST in NYC, most likely between 7-9am.

MONDAY - Snow ending between 7-9am, highs in the low 30's

TUESDAY - Cloudy highs in the high 20's to low 30's...storm approaching at night, more on this later.

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HAVE A GREAT NIGHT

**********10:45 AM UPDATE ON WINTER STORM LINUS [#LINUS]*********

VERY VERY HAPPY WITH THE FORECAST THAT DILLON AND ME PUT OUT LAST NIGHT, VERY HAPPY. 7.58" SO FAR, NO RAIN YET JUST SLEET AND ICE AND SNOW. 

The storm ended up coming in a tad weaker and was not able to push that Arctic HP as much away, therefore cold air lasted longer.

SO WHATS NEXT?

We have a Secondary low trying to/succesfully ish forming off the Delmarva Peninsula (Well really between Jersey Coast and Delmarva) and THIS will drain some more cold air south and fuel a redevelopment of precipitation as the two fronts collide LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

SO...SLEET, ICE, SNOW will CONTINUE for the next few hours AND THEN a POTENTIAL HEAVY BAND OF SNOW WILL DEVELOP AFTER LUNCH AS THE BACKSIDE OF ALL THIS MOISTURE WRAPS AROUND and the Secondary low moves NE. 

REST OF TODAY - Snow/Sleet/Ice continuing and then turning back to an all snow solution after lunch for a TIME. SNOW COULD BE HEAVY. Additional accumulations of 1-4" ARE POSSIBLE as that heavy band comes through, WE WILL UPDATE ACCORDINGLY.
Temperatures in the High 20's in NYC to Low 20's in Westchester and PROGRESSIVELY colder as you get N/NW/NE of NYC. IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS - MORE OF A RAIN/SLEET MIXTURE.

FLASH FREEZE IN EFFECT FOR THIS EVENING, TEMPERATURES DROPPING 20-30° FOR SOME TO LOW TO MID TEENS OR UPPER SINGLE DIGITS. ALL STANDING WATER, MELTED PRECIP, UNTREATED ROADS, ETC WILL FREEZE

All precipitation will taper off this evening into nighttime and gradually clear by midnight.

PLACES SOUTH OF YONKERS, COASTAL CT, LONG ISLAND...YOU WILL HAVE A POTENTIAL COMPLETE MESS OF ICE ON YOUR HANDS AS TEMPERATURES RAPIDLY DROP AND MOISTURE MOVES IN, PRECIP KEEPS FALLING. BE CAREFUL

Additional Snow accumulation map below.

ANY QUESTIONS? IF SO POST IT BELOW IN THE COMMENTS OR MESSAGE ME OR DILLON.

********11PM UPDATE ON WINTER STORM [LINUS?]*********

Snow Has started moving into the area, the ACTUAL system still WAY back in Western PA. The storm looks to be tracking a TAD south of what was thought - GOOD for snow lovers. Models continued to trend south a tad as well, only like 5-10 miles...but any trend is a good trend south.

IT WILL STILL be a close call with rain/snow line - WE ARE EXPECTING A POTENTIALLY SERIOUS ICE SITUATION FOLKS! Looks like at this point we cannot get out of that! UP TO A HALF AN INCH of Ice COULD ACCUMULATE ON TOP OF 5-8" OF SNOW! BE CAREFUL FOLKS!

So, Looking like a GOOD 6-9 hours of SNOW before we start thinking about changing over to wintry mix.

PERSONAL OPINION FROM DILLON AND I - BAD IDEA FOR SCHOOLS ON TWO HOUR DELAY, GOING TO BE VERY VERY ICY AND BAD ROADS/CONDITIONS TOMORROW. LETS HOPE THEY CHANGE THEIR DECISION.

BACK TOMORROW MORNING WITH UPDATES.

STILL HANGING ONTO SNOW ACCUMULATION MAP FROM BEFORE.

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http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/northeast.php

**********FRIDAY NIGHT DISCUSSION - WINTER STORM AHEAD FOR SUPERBOWL FOLKS!**********

*******FAIRLY CONFIDENT IN A DECENT WINTER STORM, ALL SNOW FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT******
HOW MUCH SNOW? WELL HERE IS THE TRICKY PART! IT IS GOING TO BE BRUTALLY COLD FOLKS, AND THIS STORM IS GONNA BE EVEN COLDER. DO NOT BE SURPRISED IF 15-20:1 RATIOS OF SNOW ARE PRESENT. FOR NOW, I WILL STICK WITH 10:1 RATIOS - BUT AN AVERAGE OF THE MODELS WOULD BE 
8-12", A MAX WOULD BE 12-15" AND A MINIMUM 4".

HINTING - WITH HIGHER RATIOS WE COULD BE LOOKING AT
PROBABLE 12-15", MAX 18-24"(BUT I THINK THATS A FAR STRETCH).

A storm will move across the Midwest tonight into tomorrow and form a slightly stronger low as it comes out of the Ohio Valley. FOLKS, TRACK AS ALWAYS IS VERY IMPORTANT! A MOVE SOUTH 50 MILES WOULD CUT OUR SNOW IN HALF, A MOVE NORTH 50 MILES COULD MIX SOME YOU-KNOW WHAT IN!!!! 

WE ALL KNOW HOW THE MODELS ARE...SINCE THE LAST STORM.

Pictures are worth a thousand words so PLEASE LOOK AT THEM FOR MORE INFORMATION ON THE STORM!

TIMING, AS OF NOW, WOULD BE MID SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...SO RIGHT AS SUPERBOWL PARTIES ENDING!

OTHER NEWS: BRUTAL, I MEAN BRUTAL COLD COMING TONIGHT WITH BRUTAL WINDCHILLS FAR INTO THE NEGATIVES. PLEASE BE CAREFUL FOLKS!

****************FORECAST*******************

TONIGHT - COLD COLD FRIGID. Lows in the NEGATIVES, -15 to -20° BELOW with the WINDCHILLS, Otherwise Around 1° PROGRESSIVELY COLDER AS YOU GET NORTH AND WEST. WINDS 20-30MPH GUSTS TO 35MPH

TOMORROW - COLD! Highs in the LOW 20's, MORNING HIGHS IN THE NEGATIVES! ENJOY THE SUNNINESS - WONT LAST FOR LONG!

SUNDAY - Increasing Clouds as the day goes on Highs in the LOW 30's around 30-32° Getting COLDER as the day goes on probably, SNOW arriving LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AROUND MIDNIGHT OR SO...MAYBE EARLIER FINAL DETAILS TOMORROW.

MONDAY - Snow Continuing throughout the day is probable. Highs in the low 20's probable.

FIRST CALL MAPS BELOW FOR SUNDAY STORM

TEMPERATURE MAPS AS WELL - LOOK AT THAT COLD!!!!!!

WINDY TOO FOLKS!

*******SATURDAY EVENING UPDATE, STORM DISCUSSION!**********

****ISSUING A HEAVY RAIN/FLOODING WARNING FOR SUNDAY MIDDAY THROUGH EVENING*******

****ISSUING A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN/MAYBE SNOW/SNIZZLE FOR SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MIDDAY****
*****ISSUING A POSSIBLE, POSSIBLE PERIOD OF SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT AS COLD AIR SWEEPS BACK IN - COULD BE MODERATE FOR 2-4 HOURS, ***IF IT HAPPENS, ONLY IF******
As a very strong upper level disturbance swings through Southern Canada, some of the energy from that will drop down and form a small wave off the edge of a cold front off the coast of the Carolina's....this wave will move NE following the Eastern Seaboard and intensify, and phase its energy as it moves over Long Island/ Southern New England. As it intensifies over S.E. N.E it will jog east a bit...NOW, Dillon and I are going on a hunch here - as it jogs east, it will allow more cold air to infiltrate, and what we think may happen is a BRIEF, 2-4 hours MAX period of snow from NYC/SUBURBS and NE as the precipitation field is thrown back a little bit. NOW, Am I expecting any significant accumulation? NO....is it possible that we do get SOME accumulation? YES! Only time will tell, so we will update on this particular issue tomorrow.

Other problems with this system, and it is illustrated below on the maps, We ONCE again have below freezing temperatures to deal with at the surface, and on the surface..but then we have this NASTY layer of warm air centered around 925mB that will keep the snow from staying snow as it falls, because if you think about it - basically a sandwhich, COLD - WARM - COLD...very frusterating, but hey its the only weather we have lets love it, as Joe Bastardi always says....SO WHAT DOES THIS MEAN? WELL...Freezing rain will be an IMPORTANT feature of this system as it comes in the morning....
I think enough said...here is our Forecast:

TONIGHT - Clear skies will become overcast towards dawn, temps in the low to mid 20's.

TOMORROW - Rain Showers/Freezing rain, and possibly some snow mixing in the morning will evolve into a steady and MOST PROBABLY HEAVY Rain in the afternoon - GUYS BE CAREFUL! 2" OF RAIN ON FROZEN GROUND WILL FLOOD AND NOT SOAK UP INTO THE GROUND! PLEASE!. Temperatures steady in the mid to upper 30's...I DOUBT we will get past 40°. Also, DO NOT be surprised if you see/hear lightning/thunder.

TOMORROW NIGHT- Rain will taper off in the evening, and WE MIGHT, POSSIBLY END as a BRIEF period of moderate snow as the cold air infiltrates in and the precipitation begins to move out. Temperatures in the low to mid 20's.

Guys, the TOTAL precipitation forecast for our Area is 1.95" of Liquid. Since we are not expecting any snow accumulations, or major ice accumulations, this will be 2" of RAIN. Ground that is frozen does NOT soak up rain. THIS WILL FLOOD! BE CAREFUL ON THE ROADS AND DRIVING!!!

MAPS VERY IMPORTANT, TAKE A LOOK!!!

BE SAFE AND HAVE A GOOD NIGHT FOLKS!