Friday Night Weather Update

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Updated: 0115z/21:15/09:15PM

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TONIGHT - Cloudy with some spotty showers possible, then as cold air filters through changing over to some snow showers. Lows near 30°.

SATURDAY - Snow showers/light snow developing in the morning around 9-10 and lasting throughout the day on and off, light accumulation, more as you get East and on LI. See map below.

SUNDAY - Sunny, highs in the low 40's.

MONDAY - Highs in the mid 40's, sunny, maybe a scattered shower.

--------------------------FORECAST DISCUSSION------------------------

Active day on Saturday! An Upper air disturbance will move across the area tonight and interact with a developing coastal storm tomorrow spreading snow showers/light snow back to just about the Hudson River, with accumulations of 2-4" through SE New England, maybe even some localized 3-6" on Long Island not impossible!

Sunday through Tuesday should be nice, sunny or partly cloudy highs in the mid 40's maybe into 50's as High Pressure settles over the area.

A couple clippers to watch for Wednesday and Thursday maybe, and still watching a potential biggie storm for Easter weekend. Whether or not it is rain or snow or both is still to be decided, and we will not talk about it in depth until Wednesday or Thursday at the least.

*****10:20PM UPDATE FOLKS...I HATE TO DO THIS...BUT I GOTTA*****

Latest Data coming in, plus my own observation of the radar returns are leading me to believe that 20"+ Is going to be hard to come by, unless we can REALLY ramp up the snow in the next 12-24 hours. 

SO, WE ARE ISSUING A NEW SNOW MAP, ***BUT NOTE THE OLD ONE IS STILL IN THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES, DO NOT DISCOUNT IT*****. I ISSUE THIS WITH EXTREME CAUTION - IT WOULD NOT TAKE MUCH AT ALL FOR US TO GET IN THE ZONE OF 18-24+", BUT AT THIS POINT IN TIME, I THINK WE WILL JUST MISS THAT ZONE BY A TAD.

REMEMBER AS WELL, THIS STORM WAS NEVER SUPPOSED TO REACH ITS POTENTIAL UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT - SO WE STILL HAVE TIME. GIVE THIS MONSTER TIME.
COULD I BE WRONG? OF COURSE. BUT HEY, YOU GOTTA BE WRONG SOMETIMES...AND THIS IS A VERY TOUGH SCIENCE. FOR ALL WE KNOW, THE EURO COULD BE RIGHT, AND WE COULD END UP WITH 20" TOMORROW...BUT MY GUT IS TELLING ME DIFFERENTLY, FOR NOW AT LEAST.

NOT LOWERING TOTALS A TON, BUT ENOUGH.
IF DILLON AND I FEEL THIS NEEDS TO CHANGE TOMORROW MORNING, THEN WE WILL CHANGE IT.

You have to realize, that we can do ALL the forecasting we want, but nothing will be the observations and NOWCASTS. Do not take this as A CONCRETE THING, BUT MORE OF A GUIDE. Weather Models are guides, that we use to interpret and Observations of Radar/Satellite, etc. are the concrete things.

BLIZZARD WARNINGS STILL IN EFFECT, WINDS WILL STILL GET UP THERE. PLEASE BE CAREFUL, AND AGAIN THANKS FOR YOUR SUPPORT!

********EVENING UPDATE******

I am happy to say that the snow amounts that I forecasted came out more or less right on target! I knew that there was too muhc cold air here that it would be all rain today  silly weather sites  

SO,.. Here is the deal! Forecast for the rest of the night and tomorrow:

TONIGHT - Snow/Sleet will turn to Sleet and then ALL rain by 9pm for pretty much everybody south of Albany. Peoples North of Albany and Concord, NH expect it to stay an icey/sleety/snowy mix until late tonight before changing over to all rain. Temps will rise to mid to HIGH 30's.

TOMORROW - WOW MUCH WARMER! I dont think nearly as warm as some are saying (61*!) BUT we will definately get up into 50's, and possibly break that 60* mark, but probably only for folks SOUTH of I287/Thruway.

MONDAY - First cold front moves through Sunday night finish up its passage Monday, temps in the mid 30's, partly cloudy.

GETTING INTO TUESDAY We have an Alberta Clipper that will MOST LIKELY affect us Tuesday afternoon into evening. Since Alberta Clippers are fast and hard to predict until they are basically on our doorstep, we will get into this Monday night!

Latest Radar image below!